pasnownut

It looks and feels just fine. Not sure most of us (non stat folks) really care if its upper 40's or lower 50's on 11/22. Add 10-20 to that....now that's a different story. 52 currently here in the hot spot of the LSV. NBD. Next week at this time will feel FRESH, but beyond that be warned....you may be warmed. Happy Turk Eve to all.

and here is the last 2 runs of the GFS for qpf distribution. yes folks, this is 6 hrs later and why I often cringe at long run Op guidance, but you be your own judge. I just like postin pics. 6z

Looking at Ens guidance, EPS/GEPS showing signs that our dry spell may be a thing of the past. Heres the EPS for viewing pleasure. GEPS is a little more generous as it throws back decent precip into CTP. GEFS is notably more dry and mirrors GFS qpf, but 2 outta 3 aint bad.

Not sure bout snow, but next week sure is lookin chilly. I'll be in the northwoods, so I'll hopefully have some LES showers Sun/Mon and possibly midweek. I'll freeze a snowball for ya (if we get enough to make one).

at 2:25 this afterrnoon on way to Middletown to see client, car thermo said 38 and was 5 deg cooler than mesos. for same timeframe. Looks like warmth is catching up and now at 47. Nice steady rain here. Glad to see it.

was going to post something after I came back from lunch. Mesos had us in mid 40's, but I'm not feeling it....pun intended. Its an awesome raw ass late autumnal day. Might get close, but i'm taking the under. Regarding the low/mid 50's for the LSV tomorrow, winds will be WNW, so I'm taking the under there too. Just my hunches.

On way into work I only saw a few raindrops, so from what I can tell, your board at home is still empty.

Just dont mention any names.....so we can randomly guess who you're talking bout...

I recently got Youtube after ditchin cable. My brother shared him and a couple other weather links on it. First of all, I was blown away that my bro knew something about weather and technology that I didnt (he just likes snow - probably more than I). I've watched a couple casually, but have to say that much of what I've seen is no better than us weenies throwing stuff at the wall. Lotsa click bait titles that really dont match the true weather maps. Still fun to watch i guess...and NO I wouldnt pay for their services. I'm happy w/ what I've got right on this page.

always nice to see you back, as that means fun time is near.

QPF dent doctor paying a visit to our neighborhoods.

Yeah, no matter the departures from normal....it feels normal right now, and I agree 100%. for me its all about how it feels, and IMO it has been a rather pleasant autumn - and it appears that we may be putting some dents into qpf defecits moving forward.

Yeah get those birds thawing. Had mine in fridge for 3 days and was largely frozen Sat night. Next year putting it in garage (like my mom did growing up). Hosted my family yesterday, so my turk's smoked eaten, and left to some leftovers that most took. Happy Thanksgiving week to you and to all. Hoping mo nature can give us a little/lot of something post turk day, before December warms (if one assumes normal climo for base state).

Its a nice look for late Autumn. Happy to see it, now can it give us some love? Coldish looks to be pretty much a lock for that period. Good stuff.

Thats all we got. Barely enough to wet the bottom of the bucket. If overnighter ensembles have a clue....that may change soon.

add TimB to the mix. I liked what Trainer stated above, its all good to debate. I love it, but offer some reasoning up (as best you can) instead of just sayin "aint happenin" or letting constant bias show in posts. Really detracts from ones credibility (and partly why Ji used to get under my/others skin). He's better than that. I now expect to be trolled with "aint happenings" with reckless abandon.

This trended better for you fwiw. See post above. Less ridging would help you westers. Mind you this is just telling w/ that models show. I'm gonna check ens guidance and see if any support for op is there but dont have time right now. Trying to wrap up the day, but i'm casually interested for the north country post Turk day.

@AtomixwxAnd regarding that map posted, its just a byproduct of less ridging on 500 panels, and a slightly more suppressed look here in the east, so the surface responded accordingly.

Yeah, I'm a tad leary my self. It was more of a response to the Ji cancelling winter for the 8,998,412th time in his life

While still not sure how March will play out. I dont miss the madness in their thread but miss convo w/ some really great folks. just got tired of weeding through all the crap. Hope it's gotten better. Havent looked in eons.

Yeah it used to be fun down in the MA forum....until it wasnt. At least when he ranted, he'd eventually sprinkle in so good stuff to validate his reasonings. I bet he'd be a hoot to grab a pint w/.

But when weather is coming....he is a mental furball.

Then you better enjoy every flake of this.

looks like several chances beyond the Turk Eve storm. Hoping its wavelenghts changing and southern stream starting to show itself. You can see the southern connection here

Yeah, agreed. 0z shows a miller b that jumps over us after some modest precip hits our area. 6z stepped away from the cutter look as primary pops east of us. Not putting much weight in anything yet, but hoping that it continues to step away from cutter (which it might be seeing what the Ens guidance is showing at 500's - forcing energy further south). Dunno