pasnownut

No matter how the cards fall in the next couple weeks, it's great to see chances lining up in the short/medium terms. ENS guidance still wants to dump the trough in the west until about 8-10 days when a more basin wide look seems to show. Hoping we can score a couple before that happens. Further out, with AO/NAO still neg and PNA showing a move twds neutral, that basin wide look might have merit and could be fun for us.

and like so many times in the past, that blue dot between the 4.9 is right over my house. Some things never change....hehe (not for a second do I really care or worry about it) - just funny how models consistently do that for Lanco. It's like they troll me.

After general review of nooners, only worry I've got down here in LSV'ville is that 540's ticked north, and at 72hr out, still some subtle jogs left to decide winners and losers....Hoping that trend stops, but as many of us know, that is something that happens all too often. That said, there should be a decent amount of winners in our group (norther/westers).

Definitely the "hug worthy model" . Nice to see nooners upping the % of a widespread event for many snow starved geeses (cause y'all LOVE geeses).

Iget ya. For me/others its all about consensus building and creating goalposts. Happy to see its on board for something. Thats all.

and for marginal areas, intensity is the way to the snowy white promise land. Words that live in infamy....we can overcome.....

6z seemed to be an outlier (right or wrong)

pattern always suggested this would be a quickish hitter with no deep troughing to help slow things down. I'll take my progressive 3-6 and be giddy at that. Beggars........

RGEM thermals a tick better for LSV at 78. All i can see for now.

You've been doing this long enough. Weenie rule #1 is hug ANY model that give you snow, then cherrypick for your wish list.

I get your being jaded, as we share same weather and like you, i've been at this hobby for over 35 years. Point I'm making is that while we still may fail, many here can see signs for optimism and didnt need to wait for someone to say so. Doesnt mean we all win, (and we all know that losing is always the safer bet wrt our precious snow), but unless the bottom drops out, we are in short term, and staring down our first appreciable event and cautious optimism is warranted. The reasonings why have been shared by some of us for some time now...and are largely ignored/dismissed by others. On a disco forum, that's the rub for me anyway, and while almost all of us have no formal titles or pins to put on our chest....we still have plenty to offer towards good weather disco and offer info to support our claims...right or wrong. Isn't that what a disco forum is for? While he and others are pretty/really damn good, they are capable of being off....just like the best of the best here and everywhere. Part of the fun for some/many is trying to nail down an event long before it happens, and frankly for me, what I enjoy most. The event is almost anti climactic, as i need to start searching for the next one to hunt and sometimes they are few and far between (2016 and last year come to mind). Here's to some great nooners.

Agreed, its nice to have a system stay under us...no matter how it unfolds. While I see all of the nice maps, like some/many, I realize the typical climo says LSV is often on the edge. Me thinks that IF we can get things in E Central Ohio to clean up a tad, that may help to protect our precious thermals down here. See below and you'll see what i'm getting at. CMC also has it to some degree. GFS notsomuch. Mind you we cant wish things away, but as not all models have it, its what I'm focusing on for the next few runs.

looking over Euro 850's there is a warm punch on the MD line on 6z where it was 50-75 miles further south on 0z. Unfortunately it's not outside of the rhealm of possibilities. Hoping consensus says otherwise with nooners.

Some never stop....

lol I cant believe anyone still follows them after the debacle they had some time ago. Guess memory is short term for some, or if you keep throwin enough crap at the wall, some still sticks. you are settin pretty for this one pal. Try to enjoy it, and we look forward to some awesome pics.

After parsing over overnighters, my loins are starting to feel something as well..... Just remember, that guy from MU said no snow till mid late month or early Feb, so none of this really counts, so is all bonus stat padder kinda stuff. Hehe.

good. look forward to seeing it in a few minutes.

thats good to see. Euro only out to 90 for me, so I'm relying on all of the pbp's .

Good point. Axis is NE enough to thwart cookin us too much. Were trough axis deeper, then we'd have more to worry about (other than Euro just shartin da bed a bit).

FYP

One other note is that at 114 GFS is coldest a 500's while GEPS/GEFS are warmer. Gotta love the model drama.

Great post. Like you , I looked at timestamps for periods in question and noticed much the same. Skew T's had me at 33 max and much qpf was already laid down, and column was close enough to not yet worry (but 700's to surface were scarily close). Even if I did end as drizzle/snizzle, I'd be happy to see an appreciable event. Mind you not much dissecting will matter at 4+ days out, and we should just be looking for consistency/trends to get hammered out right now, but it sure is fun to be seeing winter on the maps though.

Yep, but this is par for the normal course of play down here. Only thing I'd add to your thoughts is that while stronger primary can kill thermals, if close enough temp wise qpf can overcome marginal temps. Not saying thats the case but something to ponder.

nooner extrapolation of Z German model 1.slp slightly weaker - likely not as good for CTP qpf wise, 2. a bit slower 3. a tad colder at surface (see below) but later panels really close for LSV and show a touch warmer for Lanco ish Overall, still in the game, but nerves of steel need to come outta the closet for some of us SE'rs. The old saying you gotta smell the rain for the best snows comes to mind. I'd be smellin it. ESE winds in next panels always scare down here. Its just one run w/ many many more left. Nice to see all the same. 6z 12z

As we've been suggesting #1 sorta sets the table for #2 and yeah #2 looks a touch better. Might not lose all of our precious snowpack. If we do, #3 looks to freshen it up (verbatim). parsing over GFS progression, it has come notably further S w/ #2, IMO the -NAO should help to keep this from cutting, so I'm gonna believe what the 6z is showing for that reason.