pasnownut

woke up to a coating/dusting on the grass/car topper. Ens guidance looks to be AOA the 10 day window for appreciable changes, so lets hope that by this weekend we are starting to crawl outta the caves and start chatting up some white love from above.

Great read man, and I totally agree. Thats why I always share various tellies, as while some indies are major drivers, they still are only 1 piece to a puzzle that is in a state of flux, and while separate in space, are always intertwined in our weather and evolution. Its not a simple x/y correlation for any 1 telleconnection and what it shows. Regarding MJO post, I suggested going strongly into 8 because higher amplitude might offset other more muted signals that AO/NAO/PNA were showing. Not gonna be able to dive in today (my sons house has 2" water in basement-so I'm at office to clean stuff up, and then going to hang up the santa suit for today (client wise) and put the muck boots on to help my kid. Quick look at Ens guidance looks notably better for the holiday week and beyond. Hoping the evolution continues to work towards a good pattern.

This looks better than a couple days ago when i said it needed to go due W right off the chart. Thats a decent run into 8 and coupled w/ better tellies might just get r done.

Sure hope so. If one looks at 2m temps beyond the rainer on the GFS, while the pattern still looks less than ideal....its not horrid either and beyond christmas the temp profile looks rather ninoish and more workable.

Liking that the GFS Ens are showing, but this ^^ is not a great look IMO. Hoping that ridging in central Canook land gets suppressed as source region (while cold)- is modified polar pacific origin, and while it may get cold enough, that ridge rolls over a tad east.....and you can look at early next weeks rainer and assume something similar IMO. Just me nitpickin and not forecasting whatsoever.

trolls is the key word/exception in all of this crap.

The word transient is the only problem I have with above...hehe

Of course you are "one of us". Everyone knows your situ... when you poke warm fun, its in fun and not to troll...big diff. (and if it's not in fun....you've been warned .) When is my shipment of snow coming......?

saw some leftover snow on my way back from Selinsgrove/Shamokin Dam. Actually close to Elysburg (Bear Gap) had nice coating remaining in protected areas.

While I'm one of a few SE'rs in the group, geographically speaking regarding Chescos involvment in our convo, he is 28 miles from my door. KPit is 242 miles from same door. For the record, weather/forecasts for his area are often the same as many in our SE portion of the LSV'rs, so I'll look at his info any day as it aligns w/ quite a few of us climatologically. I've no problem when ANYONE comes in to chat it up w/ us....dont care where you reside....BUT if your coming to troll, thats a problem...... no matter where you reside.

I gave them a similar lecture last year and you see where we are. I wish you luck, but I know where I'm placing my bets. Like you I try to see all of it, as its a community forum, but it's no longer funny/amusing, and the longer it goes on, the worse it will get. Enough have tired of it.

Bubbler is correct, this storm sure is tapping into some cold. Noted below on left entrance region of SLP. Post storm is gonna be cold for sure. If only it could have stayed off shore, and not over KPIT, we'd be looking at potentiall a much better event for CTP. Without NAO/AO help, there is little reason for this not to cut as the return flow of the departing HP from this weekend will flood/ruin our precious thermals pre storm. Keep the storms coming and a few tweaks up north and maybe just maybe we'll get ours in a couple weeks.

- NAO or -AO and we'd be going bonkers in here. It'd b a parade of storms w/ the active STJ. Maybe soon bud....maybe soon.

23 on car thermo on way into office. Was nipply out. I like nipply. Looking at tellies, AO/NAO still look to head back down twds neutral and PNA heads slightly pos as we head towards Christmas. MJO still a wild card, and a large one IMO. Above signals should support a better/more workable pattern, but nothing overwhelmingly great as of now. Better may just be good enough. Just happy to see signals staying on track and not gong the other way. Happy pre Friday all.

Thats funny as hell. Enjoy the rest of your trip.

In your own "unique" way....you're doing just fine pal. Truth told, I'd LOVE to see you doing the weather for the Brits....

HP anchored over WVA is our saving grace from notably warmer temps here (for the next 48hrs anyway). As soon as it scoots, it takes the cold w/ it when winds turn SW .

I saw 27 on car thermo on way into office at 7am #winning :).

we just need the good 384hr maps to be showing at sub 240. Hoping that happens in the next week.

I hope the emergence into 8 continues due West...right off the chart. Low amp might not be enough help if AO/NAO are only slightly in our favor as tellies suggest twds Christmas week n beyond. Regardless, signals are starting to look somewhat better, and lets hope that trend continues.

Looking at the overnighers, the 0z GFS surface maps look more reasonable as to potential evolution for the 12/22 event. As I stated previously, the lack of cold in the eastern NH, is really throwing a big wrench into what could be a formidable event. I'm not trying to be a debbie, and yes, due to climo, there could be some surprises, as the storm has the ability to bring down/manufacture some/enough cold for some surprises. Long n short, its just not that cold in eastern canada, and as depicted, we'd need that. Again, I hope I'm wrong and look forward to all of you proving it. Like bubbles suggests, that is the fun for many of us. Trying to figure this stuff out. This one is rather telling IMO. Mind you its just a run, but sorta aligns w/ ens maps at 500mb, and thermally its just a hot enough mess.

gfs had the southern slider kinda look IMO. Regardless (cause it IS a word to me)...its a wonky evolution (based on 500's), but hey, I'll play along.

just looked and yeah, IF that can evolve as depictec, your suspicions would have a chance. closed off n column cools sufficiently to get er done....well....maybe. Hey, if I was a bit trigger happy on writing off the rest of the year, it wouldn't be the first time in my life I was wrong....it'd be the second.

MY wife and I were at PF Changs for grub and both saw it. She said, "did you get that much at work"? I said, not at my office. Dunno either.