pasnownut

Hey, if theres a chance, lets chat it up. Not sure about the evolution (162-168 a secondary pops due S of primary thats a beast at 989mb, but there is enough cold "close enough" to keep hope alive I guess. GFS Op 500"s has a 4 contour closed LP of NC coast, and GEFS has 1 contour similarly placed. GEPS is pos tilted and progressive scooter kinda look.

FYI, ABC 27 last night said Elizabethown recorded 2.3" yesterday. Dunno who he was chattin w/ but i didnt see that here. Barely a coating. @Mount Joy Snowman said he got 1". Sounds like pockets of good stuff might have happenend. I was just happy to see anafrontal snow.

Hope your trip was nice. Unhinged....sounds a little much IMO. (and the ones that are unhinged arent really from "in" here anyway). They just come in to kick up the dust. I had a response to DT's comments typed, and forgot to hit post, so it went poof when I came back to my puter. I'll just say that i agree w/ you. Dec was never really looking good, and it already exceeded expectations for some/many of us CTP'rs. If we go into Christmas like a lamb (sorta fitting eh??), the bang may happen as we turn the calendar. No reason for anyone to fret. Keep being nice, n santa may deliver the goods just a bit late. NBD.

Yeah just need to get through the next week to 10 days and hopefully the better looks start to have merit once things shuffle a bit further down the road.

warmish look on Ens guidance doesnt mean HOT. For timestamp of next chance, here is 2m temp anoms for conus. Find me some cold air....please n thx. My observations are mine and mine only...of course the weenie in me wants bubbles to be right - yes i typed that....tis the season.

While it does feel that way, I'd say its a byproduct of the regime we've been in w/ big fropas and trailing vorts trying to take advantage of antecedent cold. Hoping as the nino evolves (and the pattern starts to do the same, that more "normal" kinda storms are modelled. Personally I'm not down at all....as stated, its been normal to me so far, and has been looking warmish for a while (even though LR GFS Op runs show otherwise (look at the ridging from same timestamp 3 runs earlier FWIW). Hoping we keep the southern jet active and can get the Pac/NH to reshuffle to a bit less hostile look as the year end nears. Then we just need to time things a bit more right and who knows...

Should we use JB's delayed but not denied statement We've seen this far too many times and this shouldn't come as a surprise to most in here. If one objectively looks at 500mb maps on ENS guidance and source regions to see where our weather is coming from, one can come to reasonable conclusion that for the next 2 weeks its close the curtains and thats been the look for a while now. While we wait for the better signals (and as of a couple minutes ago, they are still decent as we get beyond next couple weeks), I think emotion also plays in at the time of year when Burle n Ives kinda Christmases run amuk in our snow loving skulls. Looks like we just need to chill n ride out the warmish period and hope that things continue to materialize and not get kicked down the calendar.

Congrats and agreed. Only diff moving forward it what I just posted, no real windows open for the next couple weeks, but for the fall and early winter as a whole...it's a WHOLE lot better than last year. Looks like winters just taking a pause for a little while. Is what it is and yeah, lets hope the 12z's tell me I'm off my rocker.

Looking beyond current cold shot, the flow becomes SSW and somewhat of an omega block gets established in the central parts of conus. Floods us w/ pacific air with no real troughing here in the east as we lead up to Christmas. 2m temp anomalies are just not looking good for the next 2 3weeks. Hoping there is a light at the end of the tunnel as we get to Christmas week and beyond.

while the pattern looks better in the coming weeks, heights associated w/ said pattern aren't anything to get jacked up about. All we can hope for is that once we get the flow right, we can get more chances as peak climo gets closer. That's been my worry while parsing over Ens guidance for the last week. 540's north of our region, no matter the flow....makes it challenging for sure. IF the SSW that is being discussed can take shape and grows in confidence, the lag time is typically 15-30 days, which could help us to get into some fun w/ colder source regions.

Dude, you don't have to answer to me. Your word is plenty good IMO. I'm not one of "those" guys. And even if you were embellishing a bit....the diff between 1/2" and 1" really shouldn't be anything to squabble over regarless.... Happy for you pal. Enjoy your microclimate

Congrats and welcome to the group. You guys were always in the catbird seat for this one. Enjoy.

You doubled me. I'd say 1/2" for my area. North of Lititz/Manheim was the big winner on my way into office. Frosting on trees and mountains to north had a pretty frosting as well. I was just pleasantly surprised to see anything, so my expectations were surpassed.

Congrats to all the winners. So because so many like to do the summer mow count. I'm doing a winter snow count. Thats 3 snowings for my house....so far and that already surpasses last winter #winning.

Looks like a rare "win" for us LSV'rs for a transition over to some snow. Just a light coating from my house to Etown, but I'll still say it was a win for me. It'll be gone in an hour or 2 but was nice all the same.

Good luck to all overnight. I’m setting my lowest bar for changeover here in Lanco but hope that dynamics can overcome meh thermals. Good to hear some within a few counties have started to transition. 425’ ain’t gonna do much for me here. Gnight all.

You're a better man than I. No lurking needed for me. I miss a few posters, but do not miss sifting through the rubble. I left shortly after you did, and you, Chill and PSU (and prob a few others that I forgot to mention) were the main reasons I stayed for as long as I did. Some here think it aint happening unless they say so. While three's a good bit of talent down there, our area can be notably different in outcomes, and sometimes I found myself getting caught up in what they were rooting for while it was snowing IMBY.

Some Ob’s from my travels. Palmyra to line grove had a solid 1”. Plows were down near catawissa. Bloomsburg barely a coating. Williamsport to Mansfield university much the same. Cabin down low a coating. Up top 1.5-2” and icy as hell. In Westfield now. Wing nite. I’ve got pics for proof but damn things are too big. Happy for all that got some flakes today. About 260 miles for the day.

BEAUTIFUL ride into work. Winter wonderland, and lititz to manheim had many roads caving/caved, and its almost as much snow as we received down here for the entirety of last season, and its only 12/7. Its a win. Happy for all that got some (2 days in a row mind you). I'm off the grid seeing clients up north, then headed to cabin till mid day Saturday. Yall need to work your mojo to make sunday happen. Enjoy

as i suggested the other day when the backend changeover look started to show, gotta hope for the earlier secondary pop so thermal boundary can collapse like a cheap tent. As depicted overnight, and as bubbler suggests, we typically dont do well w/ anafrontal snows (modeled vs reality).

Sad to hear. His site is/was of big interest to the snowmobile community, and I used to visit often during winter months. He was the one to listen to in the UP. Hoping they keep it going as you suggest. RIP fellow weather weenie.

Glad to hear/see all getting a little love from above. Looks like the north country is the big winner with the overnight and morning event. My obligatory cam post of link near cherry springs where stars shine "brighter" http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/CherrySprings.jpg

yeah its really light snow here in Etown as well. Good for the mood if nothing else.

congrats to the GFS for sniffin this out a week ago. Check radar verification.