pasnownut

That’s last nights run pal. Para comes out after GFS

Go parse over 3k and you’ll see 540 line NW of18z and best accums lift NW a bit. If that trend continues the gfs could be correct wrt r/s. Still really close down here. Will know soon. Nice to b tracking again.

Call me snakebit. Yeah it does historically do better w skill scores but GFS has been eeking NW and has me a bit “on edge”. Seeing NAM CMC and euro SE of GFS is nice for sure. Hoping next few runs to see the GFS come SE a bit.

I scrolled thru the panels and thought the same. Need to make sure #1 doesn’t blow up much more as it could hurt # 2s potential.

I really think you sit in the catbird seat. I’m concerned about LSV and taint or changeover for number 2 down here. I need boundary a tick SE for me wrt #2. also as long as spacing between 1 and 2 stays the same it shouldn’t change much w/ # 2 s potential. Any less spacing and dynamics get robbed a bit.

0z NAM ticks SE. for #1. Not sure I expected that but welcome it for the main event later on.

Man I’d lock that in for sure.

NAM ticked SE for Monday. Like I said several days ago. Give us a few inches Monday and then I expect to watch the snowfall pile up to our NW like normal on Thursday. Well take some snow and then taint. I fully expect this.

Just checking in from being outside all day. Happy hour NAM won’t disappoint the LSV either.

I live on that fault line and have grown accustomed to it.

That’s been in the back of my mind as well. Don’t be surprised if we “lose it” for a bit. It’s happened many times. Sure is lookin good tho. 6z gfs was pretty stellar.

Yeah even when looking at GFS beyond range it looked to remain active and cold enough to suggest a wintry feel through the end of 2020.

Yeah thats a marked improvement for C PA for sure. Hoping the goal posts move inward, and not outward from here in. Nice nooners....so far. Also nice to see thermal boundary safely below us.

On them models it was.... 12z GFS pretty much holds serve for Central/Eastern Pa.

NAM starting nooners off w/ LSV getting fringed for system #1. MSLP slightly NW of 6z but not enough to screw up the big Kahuna for midweek.

If the R/S line were about 25 miles SE of 0z Euro, i'd agree. You and I both know how we do w/ big storms in the LSV. Fortunately, CMC and GFS being on the southern side gives a little wiggle room for further corrections as goalposts start to narrow.

I'd take a blended look of 0z EPS and 6z GFS and call it a great day. That would get ALL of the subforum in play. If LSV can eek out an appetizer and sloppy whatevs for part 2, I'd be down w/ that to see you guys in true CTP (and even our KPIT lurker brethren) in the game. I'm not greedy.

gets coin jar to head to turn into chips.

Your starting to sound like us "mortals"...sorry we did that to you

Not sure, but as we've all played down in the MA forum (some more than others), and one can see how taxing it can be to enjoy this sport...especially down there. I'd guess its burnout and lack of ROI (at least thats what I've struggled w/ in the past). Of course we all know to temper expectations, but we've had more than a few rugs pulled (wrt NAO, MJO and other things) not materializing as modeled. Couple that w/ a ratter pattern like last year, and for a true snow lover, its tough. Tombo, mitch, heavy and a few other great contributors have moved on (tombo pops in when not on his forum once in a while).

Seeing the big guns all pointed in a similar direction is a welcome sight for sore eyes. Lets hope goalposts dont jump too much. As the cold air is finally being seen/realized, lets hope that helps w/ coming model runs. We shouldnt see this one or the next one headed back to the lakes in coming days. Pattern supports what we are seeing.

yep. I also corrected my post as i stated near term, but were really headed twds mid term. Still close enough to count right??

Not sure what to think of DT anymore. Seeing how smitten he is w/ the EPS over the last few years, he's gone down w/ a lot of ships ya know. Best lunch takeaway to me is that it seems like we are another day closer to some appreciable tracking ops. as we approach the mid term and things start to look more legit. Really glad to see the models adjusting to the tellies. Have a good rest of your day all.

heres that panel shat shows what I'm talking about. You can see the closed contours over southern Ill. next frame, its of NC coast and right where we want it. again its just a run, but its a nice run.

verbatim, its an early early transfer (which is what we'd want) as antecedent cold isnt too strong. As depicted, its a best case scenario, as it wouldnt warm the thermal fields too much, so we' basically have a cleaner look to the storm.