pasnownut

all ens guidance shows rather good concensus out thru 240. 2m temps dont look ominous, but ridge axis centered in central basin suggests that it will likely be easier to overachieve in the temp dept (as it seems to do lately). I think your right that its not days and days of pressure cooker stuff, but 90's likely sprinkled in extended. Parsing over precip panels suggest a couple of wet periods that likely aid in keeping temps in check.

all good . No worries. I like to send long lead hints....he is the day to day guy. We make a good team IMO.

I've said it before, I stray to discuss patterns and snow opps. Like Blizz....its what I love....the hunt. Sometimes it gets a little quiet and or gloomy here, so I go in search of convo. Not bashing, just callin it as it is sometimes. We all know what I'm talking about. I'm trying to to my part in being a good sport this year (during warm months), and hope we have lots to chat about in CTP this year. Weak Nina is early look, and I will take that for now. As I alluded to last year, I feel analogs/indices are not quiet as useful as they used to be as it feels like the base state (GW or ???) may be warming enough that it's literally "up in the air". I worry that the MA which is historically the battleground for snow, may be eeking north as we lose the cold in the arctic. JMO's but we'll know soon enough...and as i get older, I enjoy the 4 seasons more than i used to.....but NOTHING will ever beat those first fresh air masses of fall, the leaves, and the excitement for winters arrival....even when its a ratter like last year (for LSV it was anyways).

and I'll rise like an old pack mule ready to climb the mountain in search of snow.

after looking at the radar and seeing the heavier returns so far west, that you guys were in for some appreciable totals for next few hours.

need to stop drinkin that Guers Iced tea

Hope you piss that rock out soon. You’ll know when.... kidding aside good luck with it

verbatim, first week of august looks like airflow from SW, but before and after looks like warm and more arid conditions w/ flow from WNW.

looking at GFS ens guidance suggests normalish weather with a couple warm days sprinkled in. Precip chances also seem to pop every few days. Sure hope its correct. Big takeaway....heat pump is temporarily broke. Need to watch the ridging out west as it is close to rolling over into the central basin, which would fire the furnace back up.

Makes sense. it is a rather large valley and a big enough basin to capture the heat.. edit - saw trainers comments about downsloping and that likely factors in as well. I remember my college days staring at the mountain waiting for snow and how it held at elevation while the valley was slushbombs or white rain.

I'd literally like to shatter this one.....just sayin

I always wonder why Wspt is such a hot spot? It always seems to over preform in the heat dept when one would think they are far enough into the Appalachian chain to be safer than they are?

Gotta say we’ve had just enough rain to bring things back around here. Still some burnout areas on my lawn but Better then 2 weeks ago. good luck to all today.

Light rain here in Lanco right now. Surprised me for sure as I was anticipating afternoon opps but not complaining.

looks brief by nasty....if it verifies.

I’d say we got a good 45 min Rainer here. Had to be .5-1”. Glad for all that also got into it. Hoping for more chances in next couple days. Thurs looks decent for it. edit. Klns reporting .13 at 9pm but I KNOW we did much better than that. Will look for more reports. Here is HRRR

Thursday is showing up on most short range guidance for many in our group. North crew may be notsomuch, but they have a whack tomorrow. At least its not the bone dry that being suggested. I'll take that as a win. I hate humidity....buy yards need copious amounts of it.

this would make some folks happy. I"m in.... ARW2 is more 80 south, but still similar. They are meso's so maybe something to keep an eye on.

maybe we can call them popcorn farts. I crack myself up sometimes.

actually not too dissimilar to the 12k. maybe the word POOF is appropriate (for LSV anyway)?

we had cloud deck till 9am, then it started to clear. Sunny n cookin now.

thats what i've been "concentrating" on. Seems like enough instability during mid/late week, that we could gin up some precip opps. Of course the ridging could act like like a shredding machine as we close in, but I'd not discount pop up events. Thats all.

guess we have all angles covered then

Yeah in truth I've not followed, and just casually peek to see how ugly things look. Guess I could look at verification scores. Both ens members seemed similar in 500 evolution, so i pushed a few chips in.... I have noticed the GFS op seemingly being to cold vs verifcation but again just glancing, not studying. GFS has been consistent w/ Wed and beyond chances for precip from late last week, so i guess that got my interest.

Well i'm hangin my hopes on the GFS ens guidance for .5-1" of precip this week. I'm using my new winter skills of not going beyond 7 days....but if one peeks, yeah there is a pig ridge in the central basin later this week, but heights seem to lower as we get into early next week. Not saying big relief, but maybe a respite if the GFS camp has any merit. maybe its just me weeniecasting/cherrypickin what i want from the models as well....dunno?