pasnownut

I wouldnt write friday off yet. Pattern is just getting established, and I cant envision how we go from cutters, straight to suppression. That would be more of a concern in the following waves as the NAO starts to show its teeth. Just my hunch. fixed. I can't envision

I think we have a decent shot at Fri/Sat system as most guidance has it below us, honestly 500 panels at 12z look much cleaner on grampy GFS where Para is 2 pieces that don't really phase. I still think we have a shot at something measurable, and as we all know mid month seems to be shaping up for more chances...we should have more in the pipeline. Only concern is that we still seem to have LR guidance on ops showing the cutter risk, and I'm not really sure why as ens guidance has a rather decent look for systems to continue come at/under us. Just an observation and trying to wrap my head around why. In summary yeah we should have some stuff to chat about and that's loads better than most thought only a few weeks back. I think this upcoming period of fun is brought to you by the all to elusive acronyms SSW and -NAO. Enjoy your snow today. Just rain here, but we might get a little if rates help the column like some are seeing. Not expecting it, but we are close enough here in the LSV to hope for a bit of fun. Ground was white this am and hope it will be later today. Thats my win bar. Chat more this week as I've enjoyed my christmas break "away from the world". Happy New Year to all. Nut

on and off flakeage here in Lanco, but nothing of substance Hoping for some action later. Love snow on Christmas, especially this year. Merry Christmas gang!

56 in Lanco. Couple spots of white left I the yard. They will be gone by morning. hoping the best for all low landers. wishing you all a very Merry Christmas and may your ground be white. Mine won’t.

Potential = Something you can’t shovel.

I know. I guess i just think of the damage/challenges and that takes away from the weather "fun" part for me (plus it could be my house that eats a tree). That would suck any day, but especially at this time of year. I'm all for quietly turning the friggin calendar and flippin 2020 the big bird.

My buddies that are in power/internet service sector that are on call tomorrow do not agree, as its unlikely you have heavy rain, wind and no power/service issues. I don't envy them one bit, and I"m sure they'd like to stay home w/ their families. I hope its a dud.

I've got nothin for ya.........................................

Yeah I think the models are just starting to adjust to the blocking. Likely blowing the dust/rust off those parts as its been a while. hehe w/ nina fading and blocking looking to have some legs, at the minimum it should give some windows of opportunity, and is a welcome sight. So tired of the constant cutting that we've see for far too long. Looking forward to see vorts passing south of us, and seeing what happens from there. I'd be fine w/ some overrunning as well..so long as we are on the cold side of the boundary.

I can remember a snowmobile trip that we were going through Pulaski to Adams and seeing a couple blobs of snow and then saying wth did we just come up here for. We then got off the Adams Center exit and started climbing "The Hill", and by the time we were going through Barnes corners, seeing sled tracks going across the roads, it was just mind boggling. We went from basically nada to about 18-24" otg. We see that at the cabin in Tioga, but to a much smaller scale. My place sits on a west facing ridge at 2275', and believe me it makes a difference.

wrt to the ridge bridge, one can see source region getting closer to vodka kinda cold, and not just run of the mill arctic stuff. Like I said, closer, but not there yet (if it does materialize is also a stretch), but no doubt verbatim, cold will not be an issue if this verifies.

Redfield seems to get shellacked as well. Southern Tug

Getting closer...

I'm most familiar w/ Barnes Corners, and if I was able (would be going solo, cause NOO waaaayy would my wife ever consider moving to the snow capital of NYS), that's where i'd go if it were purely for snow. Brantingham and Old Forge are pretty as well, just not as snowy.

As we all are constantly looking for better times in the year of 2020, go loop the nooner GooFuS and you'll see what blocking looks like on a weather model. For some of you youngins, this may be a first, as it feels like it's been forever since we've seen it. I'd guess in the next couple days, some fun runs start to get the chatter goin again. Until then, it's good to be alive and finding our way thru this mess together.

and with what looks like more chances down the road....its all good.

LOL. F'in scrooge wins again. Enjoy your snow (Clearfield and pts. west. This is what I've been quietly expecting for us eastern folk.

I'm sure many (myself included), would love nothing more that to turn a cannon onto 2020 no matter what happens next week. I CANT WAIT to turn the calendar..but yeah some snow to end it on a better note would be great.

from a flooding perspective its a tough one. enough remaining snowpack holds some of the qpf. The way it looks we'll have bare ground w/ 1" thawed, which wont hold much at all. Thats why i wanted to keep it...+ it'd become concrete.

and hey, by the looks of it.....FREE CARWASHES FOR EVERYONE!!! I'll shut up now.....

Yeah I saw that too, but most models suggesting 1-2", so hopefully that wont verify. Ground is frozen in many areas. NAM is wettest of the bunch, and hopefully it just its bias showing. Other major leaguer's show less.

Agreed. I've accepted the fate of my back yard being brown/green for christmas, and just look at it as though we are clearing the slate for hopefully a decent/sustained run. Just turnin the - into a +.....well I'm trying anyway. At this juncture, I'm nervous about those north of 80 holding onto much after the xmas eve deluge (btw, 6z nam really took away the anafrontal snows). Never placed any faith in that happening anyway. Couple mood flakes would be nice though.

looking at overnights, you can see the changes starting to happen wrt the southward progression of systems post Christmas, as the blocking is starting to show its teeth, and cutters may now be southern sliders... A much better way to run a winter around here. Not evident on all models, but GFS suite was notable. Below is the blocking that is setting up and rolling forward it retrogrades a bit towards being a W based NAO and helps to create a broad trough in conus..

Well we all shoveled some a few days ago so I think we all can agree that weee far better off than a year ago (weather wise of course).

That’s when the 50/50 starts to show its influence and you can see forcing underneath. Should see more NS energy coming south instead of cutters headed to Wisconsin.