pasnownut

and to further understand my concern. Full disclosure this is a known GFS bias, so not totally surprised, but wrt DEC event, we had days and days of consensus. Yes, a touchdown is still a possibility, and I'm not sure its a hail mary that is necessary, but the team needs to get their sh!t together soon. GFS looks like shredmaggedon or suppression city for next 10 days. Not even worried about the cutter it shows beyond that range.

Bingo.......doesn't inspire alot of hope/comfort as consensus still lags inside 7 days. Fortunately every model cycle seems to have one or 2 ways to snow, but goalposts are boucing all around and Canderson is too afraid to step on the field to kick da ball.

and 12hrs later Point I'm trying to drive home is that players are on the field, but not sure who is qb (should be NAO- but his passer rating is not so good), and who is punter (we have several of them vying for said position. Thats quite the shift in 6 hours. GFS just went to "lost mode". Is a storm coming....I think so, but as much as we follow this stuff, I cant say w/ too much confidence. Euro stays on point, yeah that'll help, but it too had us snowing this week only 7 days ago.

I'm betting we see less than 10 flakes here in Lanco. Getting good at waiting. I'll tell ya, it has been niice for the northern locals, as theyve had snow OTG for a month now, and keep getting refreshers every coupld days. Thats what I was hoping would happen down here. All we've been able to do is retain snow piles :(. lol its all good.

We’ve not pinned down a threat since mid Dec. and yeah I’m a bit snakebit and until todays nooners finally showing some continuity, the players have been on the field, but we’ve got to get some first downs, not fumbles if we’re going to score. Hoping tonight moves the chains forwards.

Yeah Mag the nooners were looking like a few chances at scoring with the block doing what it should and forcing systems under us. Need NAO to stay west based or systems might cut to friggin Idaho. This propensity for systems to try and cut just rattles the nerves. If we can see more consensus build in the next few runs I’m going to get excited. As crazy as it is the euro is far enough south that we could have suppression depression for the Mon Tues system. As a result The next 2 might have a chance to gain latitude and get us in the goods. If that’s not enough we all remember how excited we were a week ago for this week and the snow shredder NAO tore em up. As the MA forum often complains ...many ways to fail. I’m not Debbyin just trying to keep it real in here. I want blizz’s maps to work as much as anyone here....and my snowmobiles...want it more.

hehe... it was fun, but what an easy target. Nut is quietly lurkin and was thinking the Op runs might belly under the nice NAO and was thinking it didnt make sense. I'm glad todays runs brought some looks as to what I/we should expect with such blocking, but am not overly confident in much anymore. One can only see so many good looks "vaporize" to rattle logic and what one thought one understood about weather/physics..... and the cutter thing....it really is annoying....and concerning at the same time as I fear it may be part of the warming base state and what the models/analogs are struggling to recognize. ie. just because you once saw this....doesnt mean what it once did. All that said, it still looks like a fun few weeks coming up. Not looking much further for sanity's sake.

So now we wont get cut, but NAO is a shredder. Upslope and lake snow folk approve, but its just a meat grinder verbatim. Just need some southern energy to get involved and we'd be seeing lots of little pieces of overrunning IMO.

agreed and not a far fetched solution.

Typical bias. It will “let go” of it in a few runs.

IMO ops are still trying to correct w/ the blocking, but to your point, look at the last 2 storms and how they looked a week ago vs where they ended up (shredder). Indicies suggest suppression is a valid worry, but until you stop seeing systems headed for Chicago, and everything going under us....then i'd start to worry. I think next couple days start to shed light on strength of NAO/EPO/AO and what it translates to here in the MA. FWIW we all are better positioned than interior NE, as its frozen popcorn farts for the forseeable future for them.

I googled that pork thingy youre makin. What time shall we be over? Sounds delish...

He already knew that....just needed to read a post sayin it so he could tell his friends....... I read it on the internet. Alright JI, I'm done for now. You got your blue for at least 6 hrs (on a couple models mind you). Relish the time my friend.

lol....howd that work for ya...? I've been filling my time w/ keeping active during these boring times....and as of today trolling the hell outta Ji in the MA thread. For a dude that really knows his sh!t, he really needs to learn to keep it wound up tighter...

Ops need time grasshopper.........

and at any given day or timestamp during a "good" period, you can often find blue over your house. Yes, we also see the same trends you see, but just dont flip sh!t every 6 hours. You've been at this almost as long as i have and should know that very rarely do we get into longwave stable patterns that just are chalk fulla blue over your house. Of late, we've become experts at bootleggin more times than not. Regardless, the upcoming period will continue to show you blue at varying intervals on varying models...and when we start seeing consensue build...I'll get excited right along w/ you. Until then....keep it real.

You should by a lifetime supply of Dramamine.....they say it really helps.

but..... theres no BLUE over your house...... toss it. Good lord you need to change your name to flip flop

Nah, I dont look at weather/life like you do.....my wife woulda left me a LOONNNGGGGGG time ago. Try taking a look from a realist perspectve...not the 1 run that gave you 12+. It really helps.

honestly dude....take a break and come back when you get some snow.... Weather isnt Amazon...you just don't see something on a screen that you like, order it.... and have it show up in (what used to be) 2 days. The period coming up has potential....yes stones have been kicked down the road.... blah blah blah. Stop focusing on living and dying every 6 hours....it really takes away from the skill you have, because you should be better than this by now.

does dizzying/notable/exciting make you feel better.... point is, there is an active pattern shaping up, and while not every one goes our way, chances are that we can score on 1 or 2 for sure.

The one the just threw 6 shots of precip at us in a period that looks to have potential. I'm not JI, and don't need to see BLUE over my house for every event to realize that opportunities are on the horizon. If you cant see the same potential...I guess I'm a little surprised at that. While we cant shovel potential, we need potential to shovel.

actually it can only change 32-34 (start time dependent).... just having fun.... Para says buckle up....its gonna be a fun ride in search of the promise land. Vorts every couple days.

and while the weenie in us is all in for the Para to be on point (just watched the loop and yeah...that'd make for a memorable stretch of winter for all of us). Its an Op run. Gut says ol man GFS is about to belly under in the coming days as tellies suggest it should. Yeah we've been fooled before, but we've got multiple indicies in our favor....not just 1.

its 3-5 above average "up" here as well. I'd bet a dollar to a dime last years departures were 2x+ at same timeframe w/ no end in sight.