colonel717

Both GFS and CMC are advertising back to back decent clippers Friday and Sunday. Could be several inches between them both.

Looks like we get a relaxation next week and wait to see how this polar vortex disruption affects us. I hope we stay snow covered until May... Polar vortex to lock brutal cold over eastern US for most of February Brutal midwinter cold is settling in across the eastern United States, and forecasters say it is not leaving quickly. A disrupted polar vortex is expected to keep Arctic air locked over the region through much of February, turning what is already a harsh stretch into a prolonged test of infrastructure, energy systems, and basic winter preparedness. Instead of a quick cold snap, the pattern shaping up points to repeated waves of frigid air, severe wind chills, and frequent storms tracking along the boundary between deep cold and milder air to the south. I see a setup that blends complex atmospheric science with very down-to-earth consequences, from higher heating bills to dangerous commutes and stressed power grids. At the heart of this pattern is a weakening and splitting of the Polar Vortex high above the Arctic, a process that specialists link to sudden stratospheric warming. High in the atmosphere, a rare burst of warmth is disrupting the typically tight ring of westerly winds that circles the pole, a structure that High Arctic winds Typically keep the coldest air bottled up. When that ring weakens or breaks, lobes of frigid air can spill south into midlatitudes, opening the door for the kind of persistent cold now aimed at the eastern United States. Meteorologist By Andrej Flis has described how New model guidance points to a Polar Vortex split and collapse in midmonth, following a Strato event that is already underway. That breakdown is expected to send major ripples through the jet stream, favoring blocking patterns that keep cold air parked over North America and Europe well into late winter and early spring, a scenario detailed in Polar Vortex research. Closer to the surface, the practical takeaway is simple: Additional cold surges through February are likely, and the odds of Much below normal temperatures across the eastern United States are high. Long-range outlooks highlight a corridor from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and New England where the freezer will stay open, a trend underscored by guidance that points to Additional surges of Arctic air. For residents from Atlanta to Boston, that means fewer thaws and more days when high temperatures struggle to climb out of the teens or 20s. Forecasters are also watching how this entrenched cold will interact with storm systems tracking along the jet stream. A much larger storm that expert Pastelok has flagged for just before midmonth could tap into Gulf and Atlantic moisture while running into entrenched cold, a combination that often produces heavy snow, ice, and strong winds. That potential high-impact system is already being scrutinized in February outlooks, which emphasize that the stormy start to the month may only intensify as the Polar pattern matures. Forecasts suggest that the polar pattern will not flip quickly. The polar vortex will keep the frigid pattern locked over the eastern US through much of the month, with cold air repeatedly reloading behind passing storms instead of retreating north. Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski has described how this setup effectively leaves the freezer door ajar, allowing frigid air to escape southward again and again, a dynamic laid out in Alex Sosnowski analyses. Parallel guidance from dedicated winter pattern outlooks reinforces that the Polar configuration favors sustained cold rather than a quick thaw. Even as the stratospheric event evolves, surface impacts will unfold in waves, not all at once. While the surface impacts usually lag the initial stratospheric warming by a week or more, the breakdown now underway has already been flagged in Typically delayed discussions of the event. Additional seasonal outlooks stress that Much below normal temperatures should persist across the eastern United States into early spring, with Additional cold surges through February reinforcing the chill, a message repeated in Additional outlooks. For now, the science points in one direction: the polar vortex is faltering aloft, and the eastern United States is squarely in the path of the cold that follows.

GFS, CMC, AI Euro, EURO all have it. Looks like a 2-4 inch type clipper. AIEURO looks awesome the whole run

GFS on crack. .

AIEuro the new king has the storm Wed also.

For their outdoor game...

Wow GFS has a nice Storm starting Wednesday.. well I guess not to take serious since it is the GFS but AIEuro has a storm also. Close in range, so that is nice. Then a couple clippers right behind it. AIGFS has storm with 1.3 in precip for 10th-12th

Is it "Big Boss" only for east of here and coast?

Snow showers if they hold together heading in from the north. Sun has given way to clouds.

I just checked SREFs for the weekend and 1 member gives us 8 inches. Its not over...

Looks like unless things change, we are going to be riding the clipper train over next 2 weeks starting mid next week. Come and ride the train... Some look to be very juicy at this time.

So you are saying there’s a chance… Watch come Thursday night this cuts over the Delmarva into SE PA. : 4 srefs at 15z do just that What period is the next shot at a big one? Seems like everything going forward is light to moderate the last couple days of runs Pgh Met: It's hard to imagine we are completely done with big threats if the weeklies are correct with the major Greenland block over the next several weeks. After the 1st week of Feb is when the Greenland block becomes significantly stronger on all the ensembles. Would say that is our next big window. The key is getting that to move up in time & not trend significantly weaker like we see with some -NAO driven patterns in the extended range.

So, the overall message is this: there is a better-than-even chance of virtually no snow from this system anywhere in our forecast area. the worst-case scenarios (10 percent of the overall model runs) would bring such snows as far west as Morgantown and Uniontown, with warning-level snow in Tucker County. Overall trends favor a continued decrease in probabilities of the higher snow totals, but this of course will be monitored for any changes. National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 149 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Chances of flurries and light snow into tomorrow have increased a bit, with accumulations remaining under an inch in most cases.

Not much on GEFS. Worse than 6z. Keeps all south of the border

Nothing on radar but decent snow shower breaking out.

As fyi, there is no new data from recon until 0z tonight due to some flight issues. So give until 0z tonight to see if we can get this to come west.

https://x.com/HuffmanHeadsUp/status/2016378076901281901

A funny story. They have done a terrible job clearing our roads in my neighborhood. Yesterday we didn't get mail delivered because mailman said he couldn't get to mailboxes. Basically a car and a half could fit on the road instead of 2 cars. He delivered to a couple houses on my road but not mine. When mine was clear as could be. Well late yesterday afternoon, a plow came, must have been in response to mail issue, and opened up the street and mailbox access more. As he did that he plowed snow back onto the front of people driveways. I cleared mine as soon as he came because I knew the slop would refreeze into ice blocks. I just looked out and saw my neighbor with his snowblower to clear the plowed in snow. Well he tried but it was too frozen and then had to use a shovel. As he started he walked over towards his mailbox and shot the finger at it. I'm sure he wasn't expecting anyone to see that but I am sure that is a lot of peoples reaction to the snow...

I just don't see a way to win. There wasn't 1 hit in the 18z EPS. I'm tossing in the towel. A 1-2 inch storm does nothing for me when 2-3 ft just to our south and east.

I just got back from driving to Grove City. Perilous driving on the way there were several white out squalls. Couple times cars were flying by. Couldnt see the road. Crazy drivers.

If we miss out on the weekend we have clipper after clipper through the whole run.

4 GEFS members hit SWPa. There were only 2 at 12z

Yes. Thanks.

Latest 18z Icon EPS, there are 5 pretty east members. 2 are in eastern PA for weekend

I looked for some discussion of it. But nothing. You can see snow breaking out over central Ohio, so snow may develop along that front. Also now breaking out in front of the front. I am actually driving up to Grove City later tonight.