colonel717

Snow looking to head into the area soon

That is crazy. Have never seen anything like that. My brother is in the 1 to 21 inches in Delaware.

I will be dead by then... I had 93. Will Likely never top that for me.

You were rooting against this one. It's all your fault .

Who is this for? Not seeing anything at NWS

East of us may do well. Congrats NY and Boston again... Not seeing good enough thermals for us at this point. UKie is way south, AIGFS and GFS heavy rain to backside snow, AIEuro, Euro and CMC all rain. This is really looking like 2021 again to me. Our snow pretty much ended early Feb while east of us prospered. I told my wife earlier this month, I wouldn't be surprised if we only got 2-3 inches the rest of winter. Hoping I wasn't right.

I would love to visit him. My luck is If i drove there and the rug gets pulled. Looks interesting late week here. Split difference between. UKie and GFS Watch that one turn I to a coastal too...

My brother lives in Delaware right near the 40 inch total.

NAM looking good for 3-4 inches in AGC

Oh I do not think we are getting more than an inch or 2. We are more due for a 18+(16 years) than due for a fringe job(countless). Those happen all the time, the big ones don't for us.

There are still 4 GEFS members that bring us Warning level snow. So I guess there is still a chance...

They better hope the 3K is way off with temps.

Up there with Moon...

Where is your league? I play at Moon Monday nights.

My golf league starts 1st Monday of April. Baseball also doesn't start until April, and it's the Pirates so who cares...I will root for snow until then.

But at least we have a 1-2 inch clipper next week while the east/MidAtl gets 1-3ft this weekend...

Its a 1-2 inch with upside for someone maybe to get 3 inches. Our best chance for snow may be from lake effect but not sure how much the waters have opened with the recent melt.

This hasn't changed much from yesterday

GFS not backing down.

Thunderstorm chances will increase over the next 30 hours. These storm chances will come in three distinct waves. The first chance is most likely this afternoon over northern West Virginia and southwest PA (this chance has decreased). The second will pass early Friday morning, most likely for Ohio and western PA. The third will come on a cold front late-Friday morning into early afternoon, most likely for western PA. The first wave will be along a surface warm front. This will have a medium probability of ignition and very low probability of impacts. The main uncertainty of ignition is ties to instability generation. Median SB/MU CAPE shows near-zero values, with HREF ensemble max showing up to 200 J/kg possible. In order to ascertain any impacts, instability >100 J/kg is needed which is only 10% likely at this point. Current radar trends reflect low-to-no instability. Prevalent cloud cover will continue to be unfavorable for sustained updrafts. Into tonight, a low level jet is forecast to ride up and through the area, increasing low-level convergence / upper-level divergence. This will provide a high probability of initiation and a low-to-medium probability of impacts. Given the high probability of decoupling, and intense updrafts being mostly shear-driven, and any limit instability being elevated, the main risk with these storms will be hail. This round is represented by the SPC marginal risk outlook. While widespread small hail is most likely, achieving large hail >1" will be reliant on maintaining dry air aloft and mature updrafts. Given limited elevated instability, both of these will be difficult to achieve concurrently. So, there is a higher probability of higher coverages of small hail, but hail >1" cannot be ruled out. The third threat will come on a passing cold front tomorrow. This will bring a low probability of initiation, but a conditional low-to-medium probability of impacts. The cold front will be accompanied by mean 0-3km mean winds of 50kts. The main uncertainty will again be instability. There remains a 25% chance of >100J/kg of CAPE for now, but in the event of clearing, we may top this threshold. Combined with the forcing from the front, this would bring the highest conditional chance of damaging winds should updrafts initiate on the front, primarily tied to fast storm motion and linear mode.

GFS looks great too bad its on its own.

Maybe some thunderstorms tomorrow night.

Yeah, not expecting more than a couple inches at best. Probably grass only accumulation at that. Will see if all of the recon data makes a difference. If so it should tell us for 0z runs.

If I recall correctly the inverted trough was the only thing that saved us from being even worse in Jan 2016.