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Everything posted by colonel717
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Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
GFS, CMC, AI Euro, EURO all have it. Looks like a 2-4 inch type clipper. AIEURO looks awesome the whole run -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
AIEuro the new king has the storm Wed also. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
For their outdoor game... -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Wow GFS has a nice Storm starting Wednesday.. well I guess not to take serious since it is the GFS but AIEuro has a storm also. Close in range, so that is nice. Then a couple clippers right behind it. AIGFS has storm with 1.3 in precip for 10th-12th -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Is it "Big Boss" only for east of here and coast? -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Snow showers if they hold together heading in from the north. Sun has given way to clouds. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I just checked SREFs for the weekend and 1 member gives us 8 inches. Its not over... -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Looks like unless things change, we are going to be riding the clipper train over next 2 weeks starting mid next week. Come and ride the train... Some look to be very juicy at this time. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
So you are saying there’s a chance… Watch come Thursday night this cuts over the Delmarva into SE PA. : 4 srefs at 15z do just that What period is the next shot at a big one? Seems like everything going forward is light to moderate the last couple days of runs Pgh Met: It's hard to imagine we are completely done with big threats if the weeklies are correct with the major Greenland block over the next several weeks. After the 1st week of Feb is when the Greenland block becomes significantly stronger on all the ensembles. Would say that is our next big window. The key is getting that to move up in time & not trend significantly weaker like we see with some -NAO driven patterns in the extended range. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
So, the overall message is this: there is a better-than-even chance of virtually no snow from this system anywhere in our forecast area. the worst-case scenarios (10 percent of the overall model runs) would bring such snows as far west as Morgantown and Uniontown, with warning-level snow in Tucker County. Overall trends favor a continued decrease in probabilities of the higher snow totals, but this of course will be monitored for any changes. National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 149 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Chances of flurries and light snow into tomorrow have increased a bit, with accumulations remaining under an inch in most cases. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Not much on GEFS. Worse than 6z. Keeps all south of the border -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Nothing on radar but decent snow shower breaking out. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
As fyi, there is no new data from recon until 0z tonight due to some flight issues. So give until 0z tonight to see if we can get this to come west. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
A funny story. They have done a terrible job clearing our roads in my neighborhood. Yesterday we didn't get mail delivered because mailman said he couldn't get to mailboxes. Basically a car and a half could fit on the road instead of 2 cars. He delivered to a couple houses on my road but not mine. When mine was clear as could be. Well late yesterday afternoon, a plow came, must have been in response to mail issue, and opened up the street and mailbox access more. As he did that he plowed snow back onto the front of people driveways. I cleared mine as soon as he came because I knew the slop would refreeze into ice blocks. I just looked out and saw my neighbor with his snowblower to clear the plowed in snow. Well he tried but it was too frozen and then had to use a shovel. As he started he walked over towards his mailbox and shot the finger at it. I'm sure he wasn't expecting anyone to see that but I am sure that is a lot of peoples reaction to the snow... -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I just don't see a way to win. There wasn't 1 hit in the 18z EPS. I'm tossing in the towel. A 1-2 inch storm does nothing for me when 2-3 ft just to our south and east. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I just got back from driving to Grove City. Perilous driving on the way there were several white out squalls. Couple times cars were flying by. Couldnt see the road. Crazy drivers. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
If we miss out on the weekend we have clipper after clipper through the whole run. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
4 GEFS members hit SWPa. There were only 2 at 12z -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yes. Thanks. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Latest 18z Icon EPS, there are 5 pretty east members. 2 are in eastern PA for weekend -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I looked for some discussion of it. But nothing. You can see snow breaking out over central Ohio, so snow may develop along that front. Also now breaking out in front of the front. I am actually driving up to Grove City later tonight. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
@Burghblizz Not sure if this squall line holds together or how far south it will extend, but looks like at least Butler Co should see it come through if you take it due east. It is getting very dark here. Looks like snow. -
Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26
colonel717 replied to Burghblizz's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm trying to reel it in...And the latest run just lost it... JMA a no also.. I'm scrambling. Latest DGEX anybody...This is about the time there were big changes for Sundays storm.. If it doesn't happen by 0z, as Bob Prince used to say, "You can kiss it goodbye"
