colonel717

Thunderstorm chances will increase over the next 30 hours. These storm chances will come in three distinct waves. The first chance is most likely this afternoon over northern West Virginia and southwest PA (this chance has decreased). The second will pass early Friday morning, most likely for Ohio and western PA. The third will come on a cold front late-Friday morning into early afternoon, most likely for western PA. The first wave will be along a surface warm front. This will have a medium probability of ignition and very low probability of impacts. The main uncertainty of ignition is ties to instability generation. Median SB/MU CAPE shows near-zero values, with HREF ensemble max showing up to 200 J/kg possible. In order to ascertain any impacts, instability >100 J/kg is needed which is only 10% likely at this point. Current radar trends reflect low-to-no instability. Prevalent cloud cover will continue to be unfavorable for sustained updrafts. Into tonight, a low level jet is forecast to ride up and through the area, increasing low-level convergence / upper-level divergence. This will provide a high probability of initiation and a low-to-medium probability of impacts. Given the high probability of decoupling, and intense updrafts being mostly shear-driven, and any limit instability being elevated, the main risk with these storms will be hail. This round is represented by the SPC marginal risk outlook. While widespread small hail is most likely, achieving large hail >1" will be reliant on maintaining dry air aloft and mature updrafts. Given limited elevated instability, both of these will be difficult to achieve concurrently. So, there is a higher probability of higher coverages of small hail, but hail >1" cannot be ruled out. The third threat will come on a passing cold front tomorrow. This will bring a low probability of initiation, but a conditional low-to-medium probability of impacts. The cold front will be accompanied by mean 0-3km mean winds of 50kts. The main uncertainty will again be instability. There remains a 25% chance of >100J/kg of CAPE for now, but in the event of clearing, we may top this threshold. Combined with the forcing from the front, this would bring the highest conditional chance of damaging winds should updrafts initiate on the front, primarily tied to fast storm motion and linear mode.

GFS looks great too bad its on its own.

Maybe some thunderstorms tomorrow night.

Yeah, not expecting more than a couple inches at best. Probably grass only accumulation at that. Will see if all of the recon data makes a difference. If so it should tell us for 0z runs.

If I recall correctly the inverted trough was the only thing that saved us from being even worse in Jan 2016.

Crazy runs on GFS and CMC for MidAtl and coast 2-4ft possible. We luck out with some banding.

Obviously the good stuff...

Snow continues through the day Sunday

https://digital.weather.gov/ hmmm...

I do not trust the UKie... I want more winter, but as I have said only if it comes with big snows at this point. It an IMBY sport. If I don't get it I don't root for others to get it. Thats why I have no problem with latest EURO run. No snow for me, then no snow for you...

Slight chance of hail Friday

If we are not going to get big snow I hope for something like the EURO to happen. We don't get it, no one does. Even looking at GEFS and EPS, there are not a lot of big snow producers. I see a lot of people are buying in due to large number of op models showing big snow for their areas, but IMO they are setting themselves up for disappointment. Model agreement as we know doesn't mean storm will happen.

I still have full coverage in my front yard. Some areas still 4+ inches.

A 2-4 inch advisory event, where it likely wouldn't even accumulate on hard surfaces, does nothing for me especially this time of year when weather is as you say so nice and when east of us is possibly getting 12+ up to 3.5 ft. At least it is still 5 days away so could get better or maybe even worse...

Not a lot of excitement in here and I feel the same. I see this storm playing out like the 12z Icon as the most likely outcome. Weak primary running up to Pgh, transfer then bombs and goes up the coast. Obviously not the final solution but if I were a betting man, this is where I'd put my money. Hope I am wrong and I frequently am.

2 out of 20 GEFS give us 6+, 3 out of 50 EPS do. Still a long shot at this time.

We need it to develop over midwest not over the coast.

Not a huge signal on EPS but there are a couple nice ones

Wait the UKie shows this. Doesn't make sense

Ike is the only model with anything approaching that. UKie is a rain storm. So you may only have to shovel rain...

Go Ike...