colonel717

Moderate snow here now. Will enjoy anything that we get.

From Cleve on the Arctic front to get idea of timing. The latest 12z and 18z hi-res forecast model guidance shows the Arctic front arriving in NWOH and around the Toledo area around 4 pm and 6 pm. The front will arrive in the Cleveland area between 5 pm and 7 pm and the Erie, Akron, Canton, Youngstown area between 6 pm and 8 pm. The guidance shows the potential for a broken line of heavier snow showers or possible snow squalls along the passage of the Arctic front Friday evening.

Not much time left with the NAM's and SREF

3k has 4 inches over Wexford

Take a look at the models for yourself. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

A round of widespread snowfall is expected Friday morning into early Saturday as an Alberta Clipper tracks through the Great Lakes. Peak times for snow accumulation still look to be between 10am and 5pm Friday, which will likely impact the Friday evening commute. Confidence is high in light, fluffy snow character with snow-to-liquid ratios ranging from 18:1 to 21:1. Snowfall amount spreads remain tightly clustered between 1 and 3 inches for the lowlands, with a large portion of the area currently in the 2-3" range in the official forecast. There is a bit more uncertainty across the higher elevations where snowfall rates will be enhances due to upsloping. 3 to 6 inches are currently expected with locally higher amounts possible. CAMs have just now come into range and are pushing higher values, but with fairly shallow moisture. There is also a possibility that greater snowfall remains south and west of the area where jet ascent is more favorable. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect, though probabilities for widespread 6+ inches have decreased in the last cycle. In the evening, an advancing cold front may result in another period of increased snow rates, and possibly snow squalls. Be prepared for rapidly crashing temperatures into the single digits, gusty winds, and low visibility if snow squalls develop. Winds will quickly pick up behind the front Friday night as temperatures rapidly fall into the single to negative single digits by sunrise Saturday. With prevailing wind gusts of 25-30mph near the surface, wind chill values will drop to well below zero. Most of the area will see wind chill values of -10 or colder, with -20 to -25 possible north of Pittsburgh and in the higher elevations. An Extreme Cold Watch was issued for these coldest areas, and a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for most other locations.

No real lake involvement either. Clippers end up nowcasting events. 2 in is usually where I set my bar for a clipper. Is the airport really that low on their total this year. I am at 41.2 IMBY and I likely missed counting a few of the smaller .1 -.2 type of snows.

Have a nice snow shower. Everything whitened up.

What a disaster that GFS run was. 4 inches of rain next week would cause major flooding with ice jams next weekend. Thankfully it's still 10 days away and it's the GFS...

I kind of wish the models waited until Day 4 to show something. I was doing so good with sleep and not watching 0z models as they came out. Now they are sucking me in...

KEY MESSAGE 1... An Alberta Clipper will track through the Great Lakes and bring another round of snow to the region Friday morning into early Saturday. In general, forecast values across the lowlands average around 2.5 inches, with localized areas measuring as high as 4 inches. Peak times for snow accumulation still look to be between 10am and 5pm, which will likely impact the Friday evening commute. There is very little uncertainty about the snow type; it is expected to be light, fluffy snow, with snow-liquid ratios ranging from 18:1 to 21:1. Higher amounts are likely in the ridges with enhanced rate due to upsloping. 3 to 6 inches are currently expected with locally higher amounts possible. Blizzard conditions are also possible given the character of the snow and eventual wind gusts up to 45mph. In coordination with surrounding offices, a Winter Storm Watch was issued for the ridges of WV and PA. In the evening, an advancing cold front may result in another period of increased snow rates, and possibly snow squalls. Be prepared for rapidly crashing temperatures into the single digits, gusty winds, and low visibility if snow squalls develop.

Too bad Lake Erie is frozen over, but hopefully the front passing can stir up some nice squalls.

Next weekend looks like major potential. EURO on board.

UKie has this for midweek

Goofus still liking the 2 clippers. 2-3in each

Looks like models are starting to adjust colder again as they have all season in the midrange.

NAM gives the area 3-4 inches but still 48 hours away.

.KEY MESSAGES... 1) Snow chances return Friday morning with Alberta Clipper 2) Potential for cold weather headlines Saturday into Sunday 3) Potential warm-up next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Expect dry and cold weather today and tomorrow. A snow-producing Alberta Clipper will track through the Great Lakes, bringing snow to the region early Friday into early Saturday. At least one inch of snow is highly probable (over 65% chance) everywhere. However, localized areas could measure as high as 3 inches. Higher probabilities (60-80% chance) for Advisory-level snow (over 3 inches) are forecasted along the ridges of Fayette, Preston, and Tucker counties due upsloping effects. Moderate to heavy snow is expected to peak between 10am and 5pm, which will likely affect the Friday evening commute. There is very little uncertainty about the snow type; it is expected to be light, fluffy snow, with snow-liquid ratios ranging from 15:1 to 18:1. A cold front advancing over Lake Erie between 9pm and midnight Friday may trigger a second peak in heavy snow, potentially leading to snow squalls along the frontal boundary. Be prepared for rapidly crashing temperatures into the single digits, gusty winds, and low visibility if snow squalls develop.

Neither Euro have anything for Sunday.

Both GFS and CMC are advertising back to back decent clippers Friday and Sunday. Could be several inches between them both.

Looks like we get a relaxation next week and wait to see how this polar vortex disruption affects us. I hope we stay snow covered until May... Polar vortex to lock brutal cold over eastern US for most of February Brutal midwinter cold is settling in across the eastern United States, and forecasters say it is not leaving quickly. A disrupted polar vortex is expected to keep Arctic air locked over the region through much of February, turning what is already a harsh stretch into a prolonged test of infrastructure, energy systems, and basic winter preparedness. Instead of a quick cold snap, the pattern shaping up points to repeated waves of frigid air, severe wind chills, and frequent storms tracking along the boundary between deep cold and milder air to the south. I see a setup that blends complex atmospheric science with very down-to-earth consequences, from higher heating bills to dangerous commutes and stressed power grids. At the heart of this pattern is a weakening and splitting of the Polar Vortex high above the Arctic, a process that specialists link to sudden stratospheric warming. High in the atmosphere, a rare burst of warmth is disrupting the typically tight ring of westerly winds that circles the pole, a structure that High Arctic winds Typically keep the coldest air bottled up. When that ring weakens or breaks, lobes of frigid air can spill south into midlatitudes, opening the door for the kind of persistent cold now aimed at the eastern United States. Meteorologist By Andrej Flis has described how New model guidance points to a Polar Vortex split and collapse in midmonth, following a Strato event that is already underway. That breakdown is expected to send major ripples through the jet stream, favoring blocking patterns that keep cold air parked over North America and Europe well into late winter and early spring, a scenario detailed in Polar Vortex research. Closer to the surface, the practical takeaway is simple: Additional cold surges through February are likely, and the odds of Much below normal temperatures across the eastern United States are high. Long-range outlooks highlight a corridor from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and New England where the freezer will stay open, a trend underscored by guidance that points to Additional surges of Arctic air. For residents from Atlanta to Boston, that means fewer thaws and more days when high temperatures struggle to climb out of the teens or 20s. Forecasters are also watching how this entrenched cold will interact with storm systems tracking along the jet stream. A much larger storm that expert Pastelok has flagged for just before midmonth could tap into Gulf and Atlantic moisture while running into entrenched cold, a combination that often produces heavy snow, ice, and strong winds. That potential high-impact system is already being scrutinized in February outlooks, which emphasize that the stormy start to the month may only intensify as the Polar pattern matures. Forecasts suggest that the polar pattern will not flip quickly. The polar vortex will keep the frigid pattern locked over the eastern US through much of the month, with cold air repeatedly reloading behind passing storms instead of retreating north. Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski has described how this setup effectively leaves the freezer door ajar, allowing frigid air to escape southward again and again, a dynamic laid out in Alex Sosnowski analyses. Parallel guidance from dedicated winter pattern outlooks reinforces that the Polar configuration favors sustained cold rather than a quick thaw. Even as the stratospheric event evolves, surface impacts will unfold in waves, not all at once. While the surface impacts usually lag the initial stratospheric warming by a week or more, the breakdown now underway has already been flagged in Typically delayed discussions of the event. Additional seasonal outlooks stress that Much below normal temperatures should persist across the eastern United States into early spring, with Additional cold surges through February reinforcing the chill, a message repeated in Additional outlooks. For now, the science points in one direction: the polar vortex is faltering aloft, and the eastern United States is squarely in the path of the cold that follows.

GFS, CMC, AI Euro, EURO all have it. Looks like a 2-4 inch type clipper. AIEURO looks awesome the whole run

GFS on crack. .

AIEuro the new king has the storm Wed also.