CentralNC

Raleigh folks must be asleep. Y'all gonna get sticking snow later this evening. Check out the NAM

Agree mods. This is coming into view now. Need a @Brick Tamlandthread

You can see the model confusion level for the NWS by reading my official forecast and discussion. Personally, this sure feels like to me that you could draw a line from Augusta to Raleigh. All points there and east will see freezing precip of some type. Sharp cutoff to the northwest. Usually screws me here, but that's ok. Our southern and eastern bros need to cash in this winter.

RAH extended .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 415 PM Thursday... On Saturday morning a low pressure system just off the FL/GA coast will continue to deepen through the day as it skirts off the Mid- Atlantic coastal waters. A strong cold front stretching across much of the Mississippi Valley will be approaching the Mid-Atlantic region bringing a chance of rain through much of the day Saturday. While the moisture and rain from the coastal low will impact areas in the Coastal Plain and portions of the Sandhills, the approaching front will bring rain to the western portions of the region. For much of the day Saturday expect scattered to numerous periods of rain with perhaps a lull Saturday evening for portions of the Piedmont. As the front pushes through the region late Saturday night early Sunday morning the rush of colder dry air will filter in behind. As the precip is pushed out early Sunday morning, a rain snow mixture beginning along the VA/NC border could occur. By the end of the event, Sunday afternoon the rain/snow mix line could expand southward along and north of US-64. After the sunsets temps will continue to drop increasing chances fro the change over to snow as the precip moves out of the region late Sunday evening. Best chance for all snow will be north of the Triangle,but west of I95, with the rain/snow mix continuing for much of the northern coastal plain region. Cold arctic high pressure will build in with the coldest temperatures of the season Sunday night temperatures after the precip moves out. Sunday night temperatures will quickly drop into the 20s for much of the region by midnight and wide spread teens across the Piedmont region for the lows Monday morning. While these low temperatures are dangerous, wind chills in the single digits are also expected. The Sandhills and portions of the Coastal Plain regions will see temps fall into the low 20s Sunday night with wind chills in the low/mid teens. Cold temperatures will continue for at least the next 72 hours in most areas. For example areas around Raleigh will see around 86 hours of temperatures below freezing from Sunday night to Thursday afternoon. Cold dry air will be in place Monday and much of Tuesday with highs in the mid 20s NW to near 30 SE. Lows will be in the low teens to near 20 in most areas. Again wind chills will be in the single digits for Monday and Tuesday mornings. Tuesday afternoon another weather system is expected to move into the region. While models are still inconsistent with the track of the parent low that would fuel the precip and p-type, ensembles have shown there might be enough moisture in the atmosphere to produce some measurable snow Tuesday afternoon and overnight. The cold temperatures are in place, but the big question will be will there be enough moisture along side the cold air. Will keep a close watch on the developing low and expected track over the next couple days.

I have a feeling trends will go our way today.

Yep, looks cold and dry for sure. Maybe ice after that.

DT is on the case apparently

We'll post pictures!

More like gluttons for punishment.

Oh yeah this will wake up the board

Only ray of hope I can offer is usually with these super Arctic outbreaks, they usually leave for good with a grand finale. Like PD1 in 1979. Winter came to an abrupt halt after that storm (which was super cold).

Remember it well. Throw in Jan 1996 and Jan 1987 and you have my favorites.

Managed to make it to 20 this morning

Final tally in Lewisville was 2 inches. 25 degrees and starry skies.

Very intrigued by that final band back in the foothills racing NE...

Moderate snow in Lewisville - even though radar looks like trash.

Moderate snow in Lewisville now after an hour of sleet.

Somebody mentioned "gold dust" earlier? We've got it now! Sleet seems to be over

Sleet in Lewisville. Impossible to have big snowstorms in the Piedmont with S or SW surface winds

Snow picking up in Lewisville. 28 degrees and we have about an inch

We used to have a lot of Hickory posters. Anyone know the ground truth there?

It's just kind of a weak one and going pretty much straight out into the Atlantic, so no big deepener that climbs the coast.

Mesoscale Discussion 0032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...northern Georgia...eastern Tennessee...far western South Carolina...western North Carolina Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 102130Z - 110030Z SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snowfall along the high terrain and mixed precipitation likely in the afternoon/evening across portions of east TN/north GA and western SC/NC. DISCUSSION...A broad region of heavy precipitation continues to shift northward across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee/northern Georgia beneath enhanced mid-level flow and forcing from an upper-level trough. This precipitation shield will continue to lift north and eastward this evening, bringing an increase in the precipitation rates across the region, extending into western North Carolina through time. Moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible (with occasional 1" hr rates) across the southern Appalachian Mountains in eastern Tennessee. Further south across northern Georgia into the western Carolinas, profiles will continue to support additional accumulations of freezing rain. NAM/RAP sounding analysis across northern Georgia into South Carolina show a warm nose at 850 mb with surface observations indicating temperatures remain in the upper 20s to 30s. Occasionally, mixed precipitation/sleet will be possible.

The Calvary hits Hickory and dies...