CentralNC

RAH discussion. They are seeing the same as everyone else on this board. We will all know either late Monday or early Tuesday. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 PM Sunday... A southern stream shortwave will move east from the southern Plains on Tuesday night to the Deep South on Wednesday, while a separate northern stream closed mid/upper low drifts SE from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes region. The southern wave and upper divergence from the right entrance region of an associated upper jet streak will spawn a surface low that develops on a cold front along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This low will then deepen and moves NE in a classic "Miller A" track along or just off the Southeast US coast on Wednesday afternoon and evening. With a cold dry air mass in place ahead of the system, confidence is increasing in a period of frozen precipitation across most of central NC from late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. However, how impactful it is still remains to be seen, with both precipitation types and amounts will very much up in the air. This does not look like an all snow event, as there is almost definitely going to be significant warming aloft with southerly flow at 850 mb. At this time, the most likely part of the region to stay all or mostly snow is the far northern Piedmont, with a fairly large corridor of mainly sleet and freezing rain to the south. Our southern tier of counties including FAY are most likely to stay all or mostly rain. A lot will depend on the degree of phasing that can occur between the southern stream and northern stream wave, the latter of which also has an associated jet streak which dives into the Central Plains and mid-MS Valley. The ECMWF (and to some degree the Canadian) has a faster and deeper northern stream mid/upper low compared to the GFS, allowing for stronger height falls and greater energy interaction between the two systems. This results in a deeper coastal low and would bring a high impact winter storm to central NC, with colder temperatures and greater QPF amounts. The GFS would be more of a moderate/nuisance type event that only lasts for 6-12 hours before we are quickly dryslotted after 00z Thursday. This is borne out in their respective ensembles as well, with the EPS ensembles depicting a 50+% probability of warning criteria snow (>= 3 inches) across roughly the northern half of the region while the GEFS only have 20-40% probabilities that are confined to our northern tier of counties. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has also been depicting potential for significant amounts of freezing rain somewhere across central NC, perhaps exceeding a quarter inch, with the greatest probabilities from around Raleigh to the south and east. The NAM is surprisingly the warmest out of all guidance, with mostly liquid for a good part of the area, but considering this storm is at the very end of its range, will mostly disregard it at this time. It should be noted that neither the GFS or ECMWF has complete phasing between the two waves, and the overall trend in both deterministic and ensemble guidance has been slightly downward in terms of overall QPF with a faster exit of precip, so will need to see if this trend continues. Yesterday the ensemble mean QPF was in the 1 to 2 inch range, while today it is more like the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range, lowest west and highest east. If this trend continues, we would be looking at more of a nuisance type event like the GFS has, but that is a big if. Stay tuned as details should become clearer, hopefully by tomorrow when the southern wave reaches the West Coast and we can get better sampling. As for timing, precipitation still looks to start from SW to NE on Wednesday morning, ending from SW to NE during the evening or early overnight hours. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the ultimate evolution of the system, but Wednesday is likely to be quite chilly with temperatures stuck in the lower-to-mid-30s during the day, maybe even upper-20s in the far north. Forecast lows Wednesday night are in the upper-teens to mid-20s.

I need that Low 50 miles closer to the coast!

I would not give up just yet, grasshopper. Still a ways to go on this one. Trend is not good but changes are probable.

Thunder accompanying the front/rain. Temp jumped from 38 to 41 in the last few minutes.

Still has the Low in practically perfect position for Central NC, Central VA and SE VA snowstorm. I am not worrying too much about totals this far out.

Basically, has not changed much from 0z as far as I can tell.

No doubt. Hope trends hold.

You must not have been around for PD1 on 2/18/1979. I still can't believe that storm.

Same here. Seems like a snow-to-ice-to-snow in the western Piedmont at this point.

Hasn't the ICON sucked on virtually every storm this year?

As the 850 low passed i saw the highest rate of my life. Wild

That's all we need to worry about at this far out.

Seriously? 38 here

I certainly would not discount it. That's for sure

RAH issues WWA for NC Piedmont. 7AM Tues to 7AM Wed https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=rah&issuedby=RAH&product=WSW

Blacksburg now has WWA for Yadkin and other border counties.

Holy ice pick, Batman!

Please provide pictures. We're desperate.

DT woofing over on FB about the last 10 days of Feb. I think we will all yawn at the same time...

My nephew works/worked for the Armstrong fish hatchery (Marion) run by the state. Was basically washed away during Helene. They are trying to build it back but he said it's going to take a long time.

Shocked. RAH not quite giving up yet - at least in my neck of the woods. Monday through Tuesday: Things get a bit more interesting Monday into Tuesday as models are finally hinting at a bit more energy/amplification aloft. A heavy dose of mid-level perturbations and height falls embedded within a strengthening southern-stream jet could possibly start spilling into our area Monday through Tuesday. With some colder air expected to be in place by Tuesday, ptype concerns may arise. For now, will continue to mention likely rain with slight chance snow early Tuesday for the northern two-thirds of the CWA. However, this surely could change as we get closer to early next week.

Which Saturday are we talking about?

This map pretty much echoes what I have thought all along about this one. Who knows if it ends up being reality or not. All I know is systems like this have a hard time overcoming truly arctic air on the fringes.

Sad, but probably true for most of Central NC