CentralNC
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Everything posted by CentralNC
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Yes, obviously going to be a huge storm but everyone has to keep in mind there WILL be some aspect of the storm not modeled correctly. Cold air, timing, track, phase. Something will throw curveballs. I think we all have learned to cast a weary eye at the clowns. Not trying to damper but we have seen it so often.
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1000% agree. If this was Friday I might throw it out but still too far out to throw any solutions out.
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Although an outlier at this point, don't think we can totally dismiss it.
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Could we be dealing with GFS cold bias?
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Well it's a distinct possibility. I would worry a lot about IP/ZR however. Back end thump may be nice though.
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And that storm was tremendously underforecasted by the NWS. I know Bastardi gets ripped on here a lot but he was on local radio at the time and really stepped out calling for 6-10 inches and was the ONLY one doing so but as you can see from the graphic the sharp cutoff was really close. Gonna be some hearts breaking on this one. Good thing we have the sanitarium!
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Sub 1040 will still get the job done up my way.
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Bastardi has been saying that for days...even though he does that on every storm. I think he's right this time.
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You should. Most likely a snow-to-sleet-to-snow scenario for us in the western piedmont.
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Happens every time.
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Agree 100%
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Setup reminds me a little of Dec 2009 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/
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I am thinking North.
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Prepare for a snow-to-sleet-to-snow scenario in the Piedmont
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Hate to temper enthusiasm but it's still 6 days away and much will change. Hard not to get excited though...
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If you want to eat your liver, go over to OBS thread for NYC metro and check in. They are getting smoked right now.
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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
CentralNC replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
DT's been wrong before too... -
The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
CentralNC replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Lots of good mets here. HKY_WX is really trustworthy for Triad folks. His brother (RaleighWX) not too shabby either! -
The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
CentralNC replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Well take it from a long time resident, keep expectations low... -
The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
CentralNC replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Not putting too much stock in precip maps after last year's debacle but nice to see the NW shift. Still think it will be mostly a car-topper -
The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
CentralNC replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
Jan 22, 87 did have CAD the day before storm. it was upper 30's with NE wind all day. Not strong CAD but it was there. -
Makes me wonder if they should just say "there is a winter storm coming, but we really dont know what it's going to do so just be prepared for anything".
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For those of you who like to bash Bastardi he said early this week that this thing would be closer to the coast when NO model was showing that. Hats off to JB!!
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