CentralNC

Can't say I have ever seen this with a LP off the SE coast. CLT with NE winds but S 10-20 here? I just give up CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CHARLOTTE LGT RAIN 39 36 89 NE7 30.10F FOG WCI 34 GREENSBORO LGT RAIN 41 32 70 S14 30.12R WINSTON-SALEM LGT RAIN 41 33 73 S9G20 30.13R

45 in Lewisville

All I gotta say is how bad are these models? Geesh.

Yeah I agree. It's a shame because it is a great setup. If we get a LP in the northern Gulf to the SC coast in early Feb and can't get a storm.....well, I just need to move north

yay. WSW 5 miles from me. I'm not all in yet.

Too bad temps are so borderline, this would be a great storm.

Border VA counties might be the exception.

Certainly very possible.

Heavy snow discussion from WPC ...Southern Appalachians to the Northeast... Days 2/3... The aforementioned trough moving east across the southern Plains Saturday will cross the far southern Appalachians Saturday night and turn northeast up the front side of the main trough and off the Northeastern Seaboard Sunday/Sunday night. Perhaps the 00Z guidance has brought about a reasonable consensus solution with a track over the southern Mid-Atlantic Sunday morning, with the surface low pressure tracking along the Carolina Coast with typical biases of a faster GFS solution and preference to the similar 00Z ECMWF/NAM/UKMET. Going forward, the parent wave will be in the CONUS raob network which will hopefully limit further track shifts. While track is in better agreement, there is still thermal and intensity uncertainty. Marginal thermal profiles over the southern/central Mid-Atlantic likely limits moderate snow rates to where low level frontogenesis and associated mesoscale bands set up. These are currently progged over southeast VA to the southern Delmarva Saturday night into Sunday morning. Strong jet dynamics allow the low to quickly shift northeast off the Northeastern Seaboard Sunday into Sunday night with some northern stream trough supporting mainly light snow into interior New England Sunday afternoon/evening. Day 2.5 snow probabilities for 2 or more inches are low to moderate from the southern Appalachians all the way through central New England and moderate for New England on Day 3. The heaviest snow is likely to be in the southern Appalachians with low Day 2 probabilities for 4 or more inches over southwest VA and western NC and more low probabilities across New England on Day 3.

outside of the mtns, you can cut those snow totals on maps down by at least 1/2 imo

Raleigh at least mentions some accums in their afternoon AFD.

They will change in their afternoon packages mostly likely.

@msuwx Care to weigh in on these trends?

maybe it will help keep stuff from going OTS

Models playing with peoples minds. Groundhog day AmericanWx style. Yearly occurrence!

This winter blows. I would just as soon have temps +15 and full sun instead of all these close calls.

Not where I sit but I'm willing to wait to see if Fab Feb comes through before passing judgement.

there have been flurries off and on for the last hour in Lewisville.

Watch it miss us to the south...

WPC short range discussion - https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd mentions faster onset

I suspect they do not trust the QPF forecasts on the models. I have to say I am little suspect myself. Sometimes these Miller B transfers do not bring the goods like they are supposed to here in the middle.

Aptly named thread!

Nope, Davie is in GSP

So GSP gives Statesville/Mooresville a WSW but Davie county (right beside of me), nothing. Interesting. And I don't mean nothing falling, just not watches or any kind. I know they will change that tomorrow, but kinda strange.