NavarreDon

First outer band of Gordon is approaching Navarre FL. .

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little, if any, development is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast office for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Stewart

Have my eyes on this little ditty now. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little, if any, development is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast office for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Stewart

MOB raising some eyebrows over this system. SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...An upper ridge weakens while slowly shifting eastward across the eastern states to the east coast through Friday night as an upper trof advances from the northern/central Plains and begins to move into the eastern states. This transition is of importance as it influences a weak upper trof which initially exists from the Sabine River valley into the northwest Gulf and results in this weak trof becoming somewhat better defined while shifting slowly eastward to the north central Gulf and southern Mississippi River valley. The ramifications of the position of this upper trof will be to play a big role in the movement of a surface low expected to develop over the south central or southeast Gulf, and favor a general northward movement of this potential feature. Development of the surface low looks probable, so the big questions are when and where the system develops. As noted earlier the upper trof will likely favor a northward movement with this system, but depending on where it develops (south central or southeast Gulf), this will determine if the surface low moves towards the north central or the northeast Gulf. There are some environmental limitations on this potential system, such as somewhat drier air noted in the water vapor loop over the Gulf, but the configuration of the surface low will likely be tropical (warm-core). The National Hurricane Center currently has a 40% chance for tropical cyclone development over the eastern or central Gulf during the period, and will continue to monitor this as closely as possible. While there are uncertainties with timing and movement of the anticipated surface low, confidence is increasing for very high pops as well as for potential flooding threats. Following upon guidance and WPC QPF amounts, have issued a Flood Threat graphic which will begin from late Thursday and continue through late Sunday (the LONG TERM period). Have gone with a Significant Threat Area generally south of Highway 84 where areas of flash flooding will be possible and an Elevated Threat Area further to the north where isolated to areas of flash flooding will be possible. Heavy surf is likely along with a moderate risk of rip currents through Friday then likely becoming high by Friday night. At least minor coastal flooding could begin as early as late Thursday, with the potential for coastal flooding impacts increasing through Friday night. /29 LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The forecast depends entirely on the timing and movement of the anticipated Gulf system. Should this system materialize as anticipated, a movement to the north central or northeast Gulf coast looks most likely based on the influence of the upper trof as alluded to in the SHORT TERM section. A plausible solution (from a consensus of guidance) has the system moving to the north central/northeast Gulf coast in the Saturday into Sunday night timeframe. As mentioned earlier, the National Hurricane Center has a 40% chance for tropical cyclone development with this system and will closely monitor. It is too early to be able to assess potential wind impacts, but confidence has increased for flooding potential and a Significant to Elevated Threat of flooding follows through at least Sunday. In addition, the pattern supports likely to categorical pops through most of the period. A high risk of rip currents and heavy surf is likely through at least the weekend along with coastal flooding impacts. May also need to assess the potential for severe (tornadic) storm development, but unable to delve into any specifics right now as this will depend heavily on the timing/movement of the system. /29

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 730 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize. This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula. While environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible later this week while the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several days. For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi

Hahahahaha! Miss the snow but not the nonsense. On the bright side you only have around 90hrs to go!

Congrats fellas! Hope the new forum works well for you all.

Your blog was tweeted by someone I follow & I read it there. Great write up. My Mom said it was a fairly somber day in Joplin yesterday. (heightened by the events in Moore I'm sure) After moving there from the Ft Lauderdale area. She is more certain than ever she will spend the rest of her life in Joplin. The will of the people there along with the kindness just over whelm her. She had to stop by Wal Mart yesterday & a random group of people where collecting the same supplies JoMo spoke about to send to Moore. She pitched in and did her part & then just broke down. When I talked to her last night she was just astounded by the acts of the people in the Midwest.

NWS-SGF marks the 2 year anniversary of the Joplin Tornado with a summary of the events. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_summary

Found this on my computer.

+1!

Hey JoMo, Just wanted to say Merry Christmas to you & all the people of Joplin. I talked to my Mom last night & she just broke down. She said the will and fortitude of the people is just so overwhelming. Every time she starts to feel sorry for herself she hops in her car and drives around town. She has lived in Joplin for about 2 years now and she says she will never leave because of the people. Bless you all & may this coming year be one of more rebuilding and healing.

Awesome thread! Not just for the newbies, but for everyone. I would add these 2 links to the RUC & the HRRR for when it's go time. Great job Burger. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RUC&grid=255&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=11&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=13&fhour=00&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

Nice find & impressive work. Props to you and Shaggy

Fishing out of Destin in April. Not up to speed onsizing a pic. I can delete if to big.

Talked to my Mom tonight and she told me about this story. Have to say it brought a tear to my eye. Seems like an amazing comm. you have out there JoMo! http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/05/30/eveningnews/main20067397.shtml

Hey JoMo, A little late to the game but. Glad to see you are alive and for the most part ok. Don't know if you remember but I talked to you during the winter when you guys got walloped. My Mom moved out there from Ft. Lauderdale a little over a year ago. Your obs. match up excatly to hers. She lives up off of W Zora and said as you travel south things get worse & worse block by block. She had just finished eating at the Golden Corral on Range Line when I called her to let her know of the Warning. She got home as fast as possible & less than a minute or two after she got in the house her yard was covered with golf ball to baseball size hail. She took a less traveled way home yesterday (in the damage area) and was worried she was lost. She says after the initial shock. The will & the strenght of the comm. have her in awe. She really feels at home in Joplin and no plans to leave. I guess one of the few positives about such a tragic event like this is that people like her have a new found respect for the violent side of mother nature. I no longer will have to call her and inform her of a weather warning. I don't have to bug her to have her "annoying little weather radio" set up next to her bed. For her and others I am truly happy. Thoughts & Prayers for the less fortunate not only in Joplin but, all around the country.

Kinda new to the site & it is a wealth of info. Pretty easy to pick up the theme of the board if you follow along & have some smarts. Words I try to live by....Read more post less. Unless you are a Met or one of the more knowledgeable posters. Then of course the opposite is true.