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NavarreDon

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  1. 000
    WTNT43 KNHC 071455
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
    1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

    Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with
    a high density of lightning developed near the center of the
    cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave
    imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over
    the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
    currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb
    flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on
    that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

    Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster
    toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt.
    A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which
    stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a
    quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track
    guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the
    official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by
    Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously
    forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates
    that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and
    southern Mexico through Tuesday.

    Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and
    that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the
    recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear
    should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening
    trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern
    Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday
    evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in
    Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official
    forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus
    aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC
    forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the
    expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that
    the center will have dissipated by those times.


    Key Messages:

    1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
    evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a
    Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and
    Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for
    much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous
    storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system
    crosses the islands and moves onshore.

    2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the
    Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding
    and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America
    this weekend.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
    36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
    48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
    60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
    72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


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    • Like 1
  2. Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook to update discussion of the
    tropical wave east of the Windward Islands

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


    East of the Windward Islands:
    Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived
    wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be
    forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
    miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave
    is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions
    could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while
    moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands
    tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more
    conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
    the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
    locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of
    the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
    Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
    Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
    Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
    investigate this system.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


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  3. Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs: 
    * = goes offshore FL
    12Z 9/26:
    CMC just E of Columbus, GA
    GFS Albany, GA
    Euro Columbus, GA
    Icon SE GA
    *UKMET CHS
    0Z 9/27:
    CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL
    GFS Gainesville, FL
    Euro: JAX
    *ICON: SAV
    *UKMET: CHS
    12Z 9/27:
    CMC just SW of JAX
    GFS JAX
    *Euro just S of SAV
    *iCON Beaufort
    *UKMET CHS
    0Z 9/28:
    CMC JAX
    *GFS HHI
    *Euro HHI
    *ICON CHS
    *UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS
    12Z 9/28:
    *CMC Beaufort
    *GFS HHI
    *Euro HHI
    *ICON CHS
    *UKMET just SW of MB
    0Z 9/29:
    *CMC CHS
    *GFS CHS
    *Euro Beaufort
    *ICON Beaufort
    *UKMET G'town
    12Z 9/29:
    *CMC G'town
    *GFS G'town
    *Euro CHS
    *ICON CHS
    *UKMET 25 mi NE of G'town
    0Z 9/30:
    *CMC MB
    *GFS G'town
    *Euro CHS
    *ICON CHS
    *UKMET G'town

     Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall:
    CMC D
    GFS C-
    Euro C-
    ICON B
    UKMET A


    Thank you for taking the time to post all this. I think most of us don’t look at the UKMET for tropical guidance, the moral of the story is don’t discount any model when forecasting.

    Side note: I remember well people saying the HWRF was out to lunch for its pressure falls during Michael.


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    • Like 1
  4. 000
    WTNT44 KNHC 291500
    TCDAT4

    Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 28
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
    1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

    The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to
    the north of Cape Canaveral. While satellite images show the
    system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside
    of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable.
    Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about
    70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt
    were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning. These
    data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this
    advisory.

    The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly
    gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has
    moved back over water faster than expected. A mid-level shortwave
    trough moving southward across the southern United States should
    turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday.
    The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with
    the latest consensus guidance.

    Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a
    longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should
    maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased
    pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front
    near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds
    on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane
    again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian
    should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been
    issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is
    consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance.
    It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure
    when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will
    extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side.


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    • Like 2
  5. 000
    WTNT64 KNHC 281910
    TCUAT4

    Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
    310 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

    ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IAN MAKES LANDFALL IN
    SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

    NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ian made
    landfall along the southwestern coast of Florida near Cayo Costa
    around 305 PM EDT (1905 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve
    reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Ian's maximum sustained winds
    were estimated to be near 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum
    central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 940 mb
    (27.75 inches).


    SUMMARY OF 310 PM EDT...1910 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...26.7N 82.2W
    ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
    ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.75 INCHES

    $$
    Forecaster Blake/Papin/Beven/Stevenson


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    • Like 2
  6. 000
    WTNT64 KNHC 281901
    TCUAT4

    Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
    300 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

    ...IAN ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
    ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN
    THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ONGOING...

    A Weatherflow station at Tarpin point in Cape Coral reported
    sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) with a gust up to 118 mph (190
    km/h). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish
    Pass, Florida, recently reported a pressure of 942 mb (27.81
    inches).


    SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...26.6N 82.2W
    ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF FT MYERS FLORIDA
    ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

    $$
    Forecaster Blake/Beven/Papin


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