NavarreDon

Pensacola gusted to 47 when the “center” went by. Based on radar I’d say there was a strong possibility this became a TD just before landfall 

Let’s kick things off.

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Is the red sleet/mixed precipitation?

I realize it’s off topic for this thread but, I thought you all might get a kick out of this.


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Don’t see this everyday!



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I wanna stay in here 

16° and over a foot of snow now in Wolf.

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Congrats to all & thanks for letting me ride along!!!


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Not familiar with the area yet, how does the Spruce Pine area in Mitchell County set up for Flow Snow?

My Brother (4100’) outside of Glenville has about 14”, multiple measures, as best as he can figure. Here’s a pic he snapped a while ago.


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Just got a text from my brother (4100’) just outside of Glenville. Best he can tell he’s over a foot with heavy snow now & very windy.


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The backside of this system means business, it’s currently 39 with a stiff NW wind down at the beach.


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Just talked to a buddy in Woodstock GA and he’s gone over to snow.


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That dry slot seems to be filling in.  Interesting seeing the SW flow of moisture swing through in eastern GA
 
http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_nrc.gif

Hey hey looky here….lol!

1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

That's what's unreal. If this one doesn't mix, this could be one for the ages. Hoping to avoid this dry slot also.

Awesome Jason! pics?

Congrats to all of you!!! To say I'm jealous would be an understatement. Keep the obs, pics, & vids coming.

Downstream obs from Navarre in the W FL Panhandle. Storm is over performing. Already with 1.17” & more to come.


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Edit to add no convection so far that could rob upstream moisture.

Isn’t it sustained >25 for 24hr or is that just down here in Piedmont? That may be wrong too though

It’s basically go time now. Model watching is about over. If I was up there I’d be looking at the strength & placement of the HP & watching the track, speed of the developing LP.


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You can Blame Cantore for the Frz rain in Asheville, as he's headed there lol

Sometimes it’s a good idea to look at things downstream. This is part of MOB’s morning disco. I’d recommend reading the rest as they’re a damn good crew. This is what you want to see for a bigger Mnt/FH snow!

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...An upper level shortwave
trough dives south over the Plains tonight, organizing into a
closed low as it moves. The upper low moves east over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley to over the forecast area by Sunday night
as a decreasingly positively tilted system, then increasingly
negatively tilted as it moves east of the forecast area late
Saturday night through Sunday. A surface low that has developed
over Texas this afternoon moves east-southeast along the northern
Gulf coast to over the forecast area by early Saturday evening. A
weak warm front organizes along the Gulf coast tonight ahead of
the approaching surface low, but with relatively weak low level
southerly flow ahead of approaching system, the front will remain
along the coast. A strong cold front moves east over the forecast
area beginning Saturday night, ushering in a colder and drier
airmass.


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3 hours ago, Maggie Ace said:

Good morning folks. It's been enjoyable leading up to the storm. The WPC just updated the Surface Low Track forecast. 

Boom for you guys! The big boys at WPC put no stock in the quirky NAM runs. that low track is gonna be gold for the Mnts. I wouldn't fly over the cliff because of lower qpf totals in some areas. This tends to happen with models as the event draws near. Often times it's closer to the earlier higher totals. As with every big Mnt snow event the totals will vary wildly. Good luck to all of you!!!

I think the rates will overcome any sort of warmth in the mid levels for most in the Mnts. Also bear in mind the higher elevations will likely be looking at maybe a 12-1 vs 10-1 ratio if the temps maintain a upper 20’s profile.


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Can’t wait to read the AFD from the NWS. I’d imagine warnings would be going out tonight or in the morning?