Would love to lose that piece of energy on the backside of the W Atlantic trough that hangs back in Quebec. Real culprit in having the storm fall apart as it heads east. But, as usual, what I want and what will be are not going to align.
2-4" with maybe a bit more if that lake helps out is my early call. We'll have to watch out for models underestimating the amount of dry air on the northern flank though.