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snowstormcanuck

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Everything posted by snowstormcanuck

  1. Could be a hiccup run. And, actually, for SE mi and back east to over here, it's still a pretty good storm because of the overrunning. Just not the crushing amounts.
  2. If your morning's going good and you want to keep it that way, don't look at the 6z GFS.
  3. You think that's a risk here? Anything's possible but even this amped NAM run extrapolated I think would keep us all snow. Regardless if it's a northern camp or southern camp model, they all agree there won't be much phasing with the northern stream. It will eventually shear off to the east and press the arctic front southwards. It's just the northern models amplify the southern stream wave more robustly initially which allows things to go further north with the storm before that shearing process begins. There are a few EURO and GFS ensemble members which are warmer so you never know. But right now my money's on snow.
  4. I still believe being fringed on the north side is more of a risk for us than any mixing issues.
  5. I think it looks pretty good for multi-day totals in the 1-2 feet range. More a question of where.
  6. These types of setups fascinate me. No 3 contour closed low at H5. Just a ton of moisture and good jet dynamics and you get the potential for snow in feet.
  7. btw the COD website has a nice dProg/d feature so you can compare run-to-run model variability.
  8. Plus the weight of those models. Obviously rather have the Euro/gfs and their ensembles in lockstep.
  9. 18z GGEM and ICON seemed to drift at least a touch south with both the overrunning and main storm.
  10. Same Tim. Yeah, try as I might to suppress the inner weenie, he must be released from time to time.
  11. GHD I & II were fails at YYZ. Third time's a charm.
  12. Definitely possible tomorrow given the snow will start across the SW late Tuesday. I think with their baby the GGEM not playing ball we're going to get the cautious approach from EC.
  13. 12z UKMET came north from its previous 0z and 12z/29 runs but still a fair bit south of the EURO/GFS. edit: re: the main storm at 96-120 hours.
  14. Mad props to the GFS if it ends up being right with how this storm evolves. It put the EURO to shame with the 1/17 storm and it's attempting to do likewise here.
  15. Trying to think of analogs with a substantial anafrontal/overrunning pcpn event followed immediately by a decent closed sfc low storm. One that comes to mind is pre-Christmas 2004, though the axis of max snow was much more N-S than whatll likely end up with this storm. Nothing else pops to mind. Will be one for the books if the GFS is right.
  16. Lol I assume there's an inside joke here that's whooshed me related to the reliability of the ICON. Honestly, I have no understanding of this models usefulness. Crap?
  17. Primary storm (post-overrunning) on the 18z ICON at 120. **Fwiw**
  18. Mixed bag on the CMC ensembles. Some amplified, some strung out and weak. Eagerly awaiting what the EURO ensembles say.
  19. I think that 13.5" may be the 2nd biggest storm at Pearson? I'd have to check but I'm pretty sure...maybe 3. But, obviously, in reality, we've seen a lot of bigger storms than that since 1937. The nice thing is now with social media, everyone is out there with their rulers and posting totals. The official obs matter much less than they used to imho.
  20. Thanks No, still kicking around. Boring winters since 2019-20 so not much to post about. Our seasonal snowfall has been above average but no storminess. Just pocket change...up until this one.
  21. Congrats on the the TSSN. Was hoping it'd survive the trip but did not.
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