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snowstormcanuck

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Everything posted by snowstormcanuck

  1. That surprises me because Mt. Hope is right by YHM and I've seen some of the sick obs there when LES is really ripping.
  2. Seems like a good LEnS setup for you guys down there on the backside of the storm later Thursday. Some of the hi res models putting a maxima along the Niagara Escarpment.
  3. Was thinking the same but RCNYILWX's post about jet forcing and the GFS has put a bit of an optimistic spring in my step.
  4. Towel thrown in for the main storm. Probably a complete whiff. Best case some t-2" mood flakes Thursday evening. Don't know what the RGEM is smoking but it should share.
  5. OB, your call might be closer to what will happen. Lot of things working against us: delayed changeover to snow, quicker shut off of accum. snow Thursday morning, possible whiff with the main storm. There is a worst case scenario where we end up sub 4". Not saying thats happening but you sort of see the cracks in the ceiling developing.
  6. With the NAM and RGEM doing what they did, setting aside the drier inter-wave period with the NAM, would have figured the GFS would have ticked north a bit. Nope...opposite, total whiff. That's modelology for ya.
  7. Yeah >1 foot (Kuchera) even with losing .2-.3" of QPF to rain.
  8. That'd be something...rain with the overrunning and a whiff with the main storm. If this were 10 years ago I'd need a straightjacket and IV of valium.
  9. If I'm getting rain through 0z THU the main storm better cut through Akron.
  10. These kind of discrepancies on the eve of a major storm bring back memories of the 90s and 00s.
  11. Round 2 ends up being way better this far east compared to 12z/18z NAM. But no continuity, especially the dry air invasion between the two waves. Safe toss but can fish it out of the trash if it starts getting other support from the 0z suite.
  12. Yeah, sizeable gap in qpf shield and big change from 18z.
  13. Front is slower by about 6 hours. Southern wave more neutral tilt out west...maybe better for the main storm. Maybe.
  14. Blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while
  15. I don't measure like I used to. I eyeballed 16-17", which fell in line with the 16-20" reported across the City. YYZ with 13.5" if you're looking for the lowball but official number
  16. I think you're discounting the GEM/EURO too readily. The majority of 18z GEFS members look like those models locally.
  17. Just when the 12z EURO is giving me some confidence, 18z NAM lays a turd in the punch bowl. Ick.
  18. Thinking 6-10" for YYZ. 6" if the main storm completely whiffs, 10" if we get a modest input. We can start talking 10"+ if things start bumping north again.
  19. Same here. Was expecting the worst but it wasn't as bad as feared. Seems to have the same northward extent as the GEM.
  20. Yeah, I mean Wednesday should be a nice shovellable snow. Winter only comes around once a year so it's tough not to get greedy though. But I agree in spirit. Hopefully the EURO holds and keeps the flicker of the Thursday storm alive.
  21. Even on the 12z GFS around 60 it looks like a decent setup but that vortmax comes out of northern Canada and flattens the southern wave like a pancake.
  22. 12z GEFS mean still more amped up than the OP, but with each of the last 3 runs a few more individual members flip to a more suppressed looking storm. Not sure if those members are also honing into the same potential error as the OP run and things will eventually flip back or if they're the correct ones and the ones still showing an amped solution are late to the game.
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