snowstormcanuck

Looks like maybe 2" here. Pretty hard bust, and unusual too because we tend to be cooler than model progs in these situations.

Already pinging here. Doesn't look good for higher end amounts verifying. Oh well, had a great storm two weeks ago. Can't get too greedy.

I'll keep my final call of 4-8" of snow, with 1-2" of sleet piled on top. Jibes it with EC's WSW call of 6-10". Really doubtful we get any liquid per the RAP/HRRR. In these situations, the models almost always overdo the amount of sfc warming. Not envious of those getting hit with ice. I've been there. Cross your fingers and hope you're not one of the unlucky ones to lose power.

It'll be impressive enough, given our crappy snow climo, to get two 10" storms within 2 weeks of one another. To think both could be from storms that cut to our NW is really mind boggling.

I was looking at the soundings off the NAM. The warm layer aloft is pencil thin. Could see + rates keeping us snow. I think it's pretty safe to pencil in 4-8" of snow and sleet. How much sleet we get will determine where in that range we end up. If we do stay all snow, could see us going north of 8" (but I'd say the chances of *no* changeover whatsoever is pretty small). Also gotta watch that dry slot. 850/700 low pass well to our west so there's that threat to amounts too (although same scenario didn't remotely hurt us during the January 29 event).

Looks like the jump north the 18z NAM took was an aberration. Back SE so far on the 0z run, through 30.

Right now I'd go with 4-8" for mby, given the fact we'll probably go over to some sort of mixture. GEM and EURO though basically lock us in as snow beginning to end, but not ready to buy that yet.

12z RGEM looks like itll be further NW than the consensus (near SPI at 48). But, given its bias with regard to that, can probably disregard.

Antecedent arctic airmass and fact storm will occlude relatively quickly means even with a GFS track, a decent front-end thump for areas further east. That being said, looks like the GFS may be wrapping the sfc low too far NW based on H5 s/w axis. Seems like it would more likely to be over NE IN/NW OH vs MKE at 102.

Round 2 was a dud here. LLJ/WCB driven precip sheared off into the OV. Precip associated with the ul scurried off to the NW. Perfect screwhole. Luckily it was just rain instead of snow.

Sucks you had to go through that. Hopefully that's the last of the outages. I reckon ice storms are a pretty rare event up there?

1.1" of sleet and 0.13" of ZR at YYZ on 0.66" of precip. Those two p-types need to learn from their brother snow on how to be more efficient.

Pouring pellets here. Will make for a better drive into work than if it were ZRing though.

February is also, on average, our snowiest month. At least it has been the last two decades. Not that I disagree with your points. But, personally, I'd say I don't really notice the emergence of spring until March.

I sort of recall that one (It was Easter weekend, right?). Decent icing down here too, but nothing of that magnitude.

Not sure how the ICON scores, but it's in the warmer EURO camp. FWIW.

A once in 100 year storm? Yeah, pretty unlikely.

EURO still with a warmer, wound-up solution. GFS/UKIE/GGEM with a more piecemeal, colder solution. Place your bets.

Per typical, it's going to come down to s/w timing, strength, and interaction of streams. Colder solution of the models now because instead of allowing that lead northern stream s/w to slow, dig, and phase with the southern stream around 120, it sort of zips off to the east, allowing the baroclinic zone to sag south. It wouldn't completely surprise me to see the models shift back to a warmer setup (with a neutral or + NAO/AO being progged), but we'll have to wait and see.

A couple more pics

Escarpment screws us on a west wind, you guys on an east wind.

I'd say 20% or so of the houses in my neighborhood still turn on their "Christmas" lights at night, and it's the end of January. So, you're not alone with re-purposing decorations.

YYZ storm total = 12.6" Add the 4" that fell with the Sunday clipper and this is as close to a big daddy as we're going to get.

Nice pics as always. But that wreath's gotta go.