CarlislePaWx

Still waiting for the virga to reach the ground. I think maybe some is reaching the ground but I can't see it. Temp has been dropping, now down to 32.5 while the dew point is only up to 22. Wet bulb has actually dropped slightly from 29.3 to 29.1. What perfect conditions for it to start sticking almost immediately.

I'm in the tip of the arrow at the moment. I don't know if I've ever seen precip make an approach like this before. In any case I only have virga to report so far. Temp 34.7 with a dew point of 18. My wet bulb currently is 29.3, so evaporational cooling should fairly quickly pull my temp down to and then below freezing. I'll check back in as soon as the first flakes fly. I've got about an hour of enough daylight left to see the snow naturally (without any lights).

That 3-7" range should have a warning because the mid-point of that range is 5" which is the threshold for WSW. (I know the coverage has to be 50% or greater in any particular county to qualify.) Will be fun to see.

cheater!

My 4.4" guess is looking better and better.

Does that mean you wish you were also "South of the Border"?

Regarding the aforementioned "Pedro", I also immediately thought of South of the Border. Remember..."Pedro never sleeps..." and the revolving sheep above his head. ! And, don't forget to pick up a quart of milk at Piggly Wiggly, just down the road. I was traveling down to Florida several years before I-95 was constructed. Everyone used US 301, which did go right through SOB. I imagine business suffered quite a bit after the interstate bypassed them. I'm guessing the year was very close to 1972.

Already gave 4.4". Total qpf: 0.32"

MDT: 4.4"

I also had a sudden increase in winds between 3:00 and 4:00, though not nearly the magnitude. Highest gust was 12 mph. (My anemometer is partially sheltered as well). I was at my low of the night at 22.3 at 2:47 just as the winds began and one hour later at 3:46 I reached my high of the day at 35.2. Right now I'm locked in at 30 degrees.

Remember a little earlier with the MU post. They had a fairly large area of 3-6". That 6" wasn't being projected by anyone at that time. BTW, currently my temp is down to 26.8 degrees after a high of 36.1 (in the shade). I have about another 4 weeks of increasing sun elevation to go before my station goes into direct sun for any length of time. With each passing day my station will receive more sun. By the equinox it has at least enough sunlight during early to mid afternoon that I can trust my high temps again (until next November).

Wow. 5 to 5.5" for me. Right now CTP has me at 2 -3 inches. Don't know if I'll ever make it to a warning but I'm willing to bet the current upper end of 3" goes to 4". I must say the whole layout of the precip field just looks weird.

Cumberland ain't too shabby either.

This isn't the first time I've been one county away for an advisory. I'm not going to quibble over 2-4 20 miles south of me and 1-3 up here. I'm hoping for 2" with anything more a bonus.

You guys are slow! I told you it was a miller A 12 hours ago...lol.

You're off by 20 miles. The screw hole is directly over me. How weird. I know it will change in six hours but that is just plain trolling by GooFuss.

I was writing the below before several of you were already describing things the way I have below...so I'm just adding my two cents... Is this really a Miller B? the low starts out down in central Alabama and moves northeast to northwestern Georgia, to north central South Carolina, to just off the southern Virginia coast, and then the jump happens up to southeast of NYC. But, the jump doesn't happen until the low is practically at the coast. A "jump" is more of a low pressure well inland, coming northeast over the Appalachians heading up towards southwest PA with the jump taking place there to the coast as a new low pressure center, and then redeveloping / strengthening moving northeast from there. In our case while there appears to be a "jump", the low is already at the coast before the jump. It almost has more of a Miller A'ish look to it, but regardless, the MA appears to receive the jackpot once again.

No problem, I was just ribbing you a tad since I rarely do that stuff around here. @sauss06can clarify but I’m pretty sure he still lives in Summerdale. I’ve always thought the Fire Department he works with was in Harrisburg, but that I’m definitely not certain.

Central Cumberland? Summerdale? Last time I looked Summerdale was along the Susquehanna river. (j/k) Carlisle is the most central significant town in central Cumberland. Now that I have that settled, I can report that in the shade my high temp yesterday was 61.3 degrees F. Had my station been in the sun I would have easily been 63 and possibly 64. So I can mostly confirm your suspicion.

Yesterday afternoon as I was taking down my Christmas lights I looked down at my lawn and saw a bright yellow dandelion bloom. Ugggghhh

This map lines up pretty well with CTP's snow map (for our area) unless they've updated it.

Even though I don't want to, I think I'm going to take down my outside Christmas lights. Doing it with temp of 60 degrees is too hard to pass up.

Up to 59 degrees here now and the sun's been out periodically.

Thanks, Mag. Appreciate the clarification! If the cold push stays on track for what comes after 1/7, it looks like we might have our first sub-freezing high temp of the season.

I know the focus has shifted back to tomorrow night and Monday, but what happened to the 1/7 storm? Totally out to sea south of us. I thought the GFS was consistently looking good for the LSV later in the week. BTW...so far today I have recorded 0.77" of rain to start off 2022. Looks like there will be another accumulating round over the next few hours. Last night's runs gave me an average of 1.2" of rainfall. I was thinking a little earlier that the rainfall was a complete bust yet again, but it's looking like a decent shot at reaching 1" by the time it ends tomorrow.