CarlislePaWx

Here in Carlisle at 11:00pm...the temperature has risen another 2.5 degrees over the past hour and has just reached 30.0. Pressure continuing its rapid decline, now reading 29.48" or 998 millibars and is falling at a rate of 0.11"/hr which is the same rate it's been falling at for the past 4 hours! Not much sleet is falling now. Primarily light freezing rain, which won't be freezing anymore if the rate of 4.5 degrees per hour increase continues for another half-hour. My guess is that it starts to slow down soon. The first gusts of wind have just rattled the house...just 10mph but they've been calm the whole night up until now. I'll be staying up for one more hourly ob at midnight then it's lights out until morning.

At 10:10pm in Carlisle, my temperature has risen to 26.8 degrees which is roughly 2.5 degrees higher from last hour. Dew point is 26. The pressure continues its rapid descent, now down to 29.56" or 1001 mb and falling at a rate of 0.11" /hr, or nearly 4 millibars/hr. Since the snow ended and the sleet began I have recorded 0.3" of sleet. It is currently a mixture of sleet with freezing rain roughly 70/30 sleet/zr. If temps don't go much above 32 for too long I should be able to hold on to the new snow pack pretty well.

After one run that gave us a coastal along with 12"+ of snow for this storm (6 days ago), it definitely was the first and initially only model to show the inland track with the low going up through PA. It really does deserve credit.

Here is my preliminary measurement for the snow and melted. As usual I wasn't aware of the sleet mixing in until at least 5 minutes later. Melted sleet destroys the SLR of the pure snow. But, even though I know this number is contaminated, it's the best I can do. The 3.6" of snow melted down to 0.50" of liquid producing an SLR of roughly 7 : 1. The ratio before the sleet had to be at least 10:1 given how cold temps were. My board is cleared and now measuring sleet, which is about 98% of what is falling right now. Temp up to 23.5 and pressure down to 29.62". If the surface low moves as progged, then the center of it should pass extremely close to this area at which time it should be below 29.00". Pressures below 29.00" are quite unusual for our part of the country. Maybe someone could look up the MDT records to see when was the date of the last time the pressure dropped below 982 millibars?

At 9:00pm in Carlisle the temperature is 22.5 degrees, up 1.5 degrees in the past hour. Dew point is 21. Pressure is crashing, now down to 29.68" and falling very rapidly at 0.12"/hr. It is snowing but also the first pingers have also arrived. New snowfall in the past hour is 0.9" for a snow storm total of 3.6". I'm going to clear my board, melt down my snow, and then begin to measure the sleet. I'm a bit surprised the sleet made it here so quickly.

Anyone noticing the two big dry slots? One out by Pittsburgh and the other huge one down in south central Virginia. Up here we really might just go over to sleet and then cut off for a while. Should be interesting to watch.

At 8:00pm in Carlisle, the temperature is 21.0 degrees, up 1.3 degrees in the past hour. The dew point is 20 degrees and the wet bulb is 20.7 degrees. The pressure is 29.80" and falling rapidly at 0.07"/hr. It is currently snowing moderately with larger flakes. During the past hour 0.8" of new snow has accumulated bringing the storm total to 2.7". It seems I am missing out on the real heavy stuff both to my south and even southeast out Lanco way. I'll keep monitoring.

At 7:00pm in Carlisle the temperature is up to 20.3 degrees, an increase of 1.6 degrees in the past hour. Dew Point is 19 and the wet bulb is 20. The pressure is 29.87" and falling rapidly at 0.06"/hr. It is currently snowing moderately to occasionally heavily. During the past hour an additional 0.9" of snow has fallen, bringing the storm total to 1.9".

At 6:00pm in Carlisle...Moderate snow is falling. The temperature is 18.7 degrees, up 0.9 degrees in the last hour. Dew point is 17 and the wet bulb is 18.0. The pressure is 29.93" and falling rapidly at 0.07"/hr. During the past hour an additional 0.6" of snow has fallen bringing the storm total to 1.0".

At 5:00pm in Carlisle, it is snowing lightly with a temperature of 17.8 degrees. The dew point is 15 degrees and the wet bulb is 17.1 degrees. The pressure is 30.00" and is falling rapidly, at a rate of 0.06"/hr. Snowfall during the last hour has measured 0.4" with a storm total of 0.4". Winds are calm.

Snow has increased to moderate and the flake size has increased marginally. Temp has now dropped to 17.8, dp still 15, wet bulb still 17.2. With the humidity now up to 88% there isn't much more room left to drop (i think...lol). >>getting closer to the wet bulb with the temp now 17.6. There's only 0.4 degrees left to drop.

About to make a liar out of myself. Temp down now to 18.1. Dew point 15, wet bulb 17.2. Getting whiter and whiter by the minute.

Pavers/mulch almost solid white out back with side walks and street white out front. Steady snow with fine flakes because the temperature is in the teens. I've dropped to 18.7 degrees. Very unlikely I'll drop below 18.0 but we'll see. This is the first time in quite a few years since I've seen it snow with temps in the teens. >> forgot to add that the dew point has risen to 14 degrees with the wet bulb hanging out around 17.4.

Ok...officially started here a few minutes ago. Rapidly progressing to steady light. Pavers out back already showing stickage. Temp still 19.0, dp 12.

At 3:33 it remains overcast. No sign of the white stuff yet. Temp steady at 19.0 degrees with the high so far at 19.2. Dew point is 12 degrees. Wet bulb is 17 so with a 2-degree difference between wet bulb and 2m I'm not expecting more than a 1-degree drop once we're under way.

Also, my current wet bulb is 15. Temp now 17.6. That combination is not going to produce much cooling when precip begins despite the dew point hovering around 6 above.

17.1 / 6 with solid overcast and virtually no wind.

My point-n-click looks better than last night. They upped me from 2-4" to 3-6". Best news is that they only give me plain rain for one hour between 3-4am with an expected max temp of 37. That's pretty encouraging.

Good morning all. After reviewing the most recent 60 posts I can see that the majority of the models are still showing 5-6" of the snow thump. One thing I found interesting in the Euro surface maps was that it does not appear that any plain rain ever makes it to me. It wasn't showing much of any freezing rain. I don't know about sleet and if the sleet is part of the total snow accumulations. In any case, my low this morning was +4.3 degrees, by far the coldest temperature I've seen in I think 3 years. Temp is now up to 12.7 with a dew point of +1.4. Boy that air is dry.

If you believe the 0Z GFS depiction, here are the maps for accumulated freezing rain, and then ice accretion from the ZR...

After reviewing again it is weird in that east of the Susq 10:1 gives higher amounts while west of the Susq it's Kuchera that gives higher amounts.

Try using 10-1 and not Kuchera. For this storm 10-1 has shown slightly higher amounts versus Kuch.

I can't believe how consistent many of the models have been for me / Cumberland County. Very close to the 6" mark (in the middle of the county) with a little less to the east and a little more to the west. All it will take is 3 hours of 2"/hr snow for me to hit my target! Meanwhile I bottomed out here about 30 minutes ago at 10.9 degrees and for the moment it has reversed and I'm up to 11.7. Really great radiational cooling nights are always like this. The temps go down a few degrees, then stop, then go up a little bit, then stop, then start dropping again to a lower reading. The sky looked great tonight with the calm and crisp conditions along with almost a full moon directly up over my head.

My high today was back at midnight at 24.3 degrees. My high this afternoon was 22.3 degrees. Low this morning 14.5. Temp right now 16.0, dew point +1.8 F. If we have to go through all the transitions from snow to rain, I really hope to first get at least 4" of snow, which really should be doable with a rate of 1.5"/hr for 3 hours. Follow that with as much sleet as possible (several inches), followed by 0.1" freezing rain, followed by plain rain, light, and less than 0.1" and a temp no higher than 36. That will provide incredible pack retention which should easily hang around until the next storm? next Friday (lol).

I'm pretty sure that when the NWS totally restructured its zones to the county level (more than 15 years ago), if there was enough of a climatological difference in one portion of a county to the other, then that county was split up by name...ie northern/southern, coastal/inland, northwest/southeast, etc. They will only issue differing forecasts within a county if it exists as a "split county". There apparently is not enough difference in Dauphin to warrant a split...thus it's a "whole" county.