CarlislePaWx

This morning my temperature dropped to the coldest reading in nearly 2 years at 10.2 degrees. Even up to 4:30 it was still 19 degrees. Then the winds must have gone calm because the temp started dropping pretty rapidly and didn't bottom out until almost 8:00. During all of last winter my coldest reading was 12.6 F. I'm pretty sure most of us will see single digits upcoming this week. The snow cover definitely plays a big role in helping temps to drop. Just before 10:45 I'm back up to 23.2.

Years ago (25?) I went to my monthly North Jersey Weather Observers meeting. The topic for the speaker that evening was the unbelievable storm of November 1950. In addition to what's been mentioned already about Pennsylvania, during the height of the storm Newark, NJ airport reported sustained winds of hurricane force for 12 consecutive hours!! I know, it sounds nuts and totally unimaginable. Another stat from that storm is the severity of the cold that was on the west side of the storm and how deep the trough was to have fueled such a beast. Tallahassee (and other north Florida locations) reported sub-zero low temperatures of around -4F. I don't know what the central pressure was but I have to believe this storm was on par with the superstorm of March 1993, or was even more intense than that storm. The weather can be so incredibly amazing while also being horrifically devastating at the same time.

Good morning to all snow weenies out there! Judging by posts this was really a solid event. I just took my post-midnight measurement and got 2.0". That brings the storm total to 5.5". the 2.0" melted down to 0.15" which was 13:1 which was the same as my pre-midnight measurement. My melted storm total was 0.42" which also produced very close to 13:1. Like others have mentioned, there appears to be less on walkways and my cul-de-sac street. So just to recap: Snowfall since midnight = 2.0" with liquid of 0.15" Snowfall yesterday = 3.5" with liquid of 0.27" Snowfall storm total = 5.5" with liquid of 0.42" and a storm ratio of 13:1. It it currently 24.1 degrees and hasn't budged during the last hour. My overnight low was 23.0 degrees. Great storm! Now we move on to the ice storm on Sunday. I live in an area that is usually the last to break above freezing. The warmth comes in from the west or south or combination of the two. Talk to you later...have a restful day. I know I will since I'm retired...lol.

Well, it's not too hard to figure out who is likely going to win the contest. You! but I'll be a close second. We'll see. @canderson is likely going to bust low. He really should try to be more optimistic.

Hey guys, here's my midnight ob and daily ob for 1/6/22: At 12:00am the temperature in Carlisle was 27.1 degrees with a dew point of 26.2. It continued to snow heavily during the past hour but at a slightly slower rate. During the past hour I measured an additional 1.0" of snow bringing the storm total to 3.5". I just melted down that snow and came up with 0.27" of liquid which produced a liquid equivalent ratio of 13 : 1. I'll be anxious to see what the post midnight snow ratio turns out to be since that will be roughly the second half of the storm, which one would think would have to be a drier snow. We'll see. Based on current radar it would seem a lock to get at least another 1.5" before it ends which would bring the storm total to 5.0" which would verify the winter storm warning. I think based on the look of the bands to the west which appear to be pivoting eastward I'll likely see one or two more really heavy bands. So I'll say that I expect to end up with between 5.5 and 6.5 inches by morning. I'm off to bed for the night so I'll do all my final measuring in the morning, probably between 8 and 8:30. I forgot to mention that I also cleared my snowboard for the new day of data. Good night for now and enjoy the next few hours for those who stay up!

At 11:00pm in Carlisle, the temperature is down to 27.7 degrees with a dew point of 26.8. It is currently snowing heavily, and has been heavy for nearly the entire past hour. In fact, I just doubled my storm total after receiving an additional 1.3" in the past hour and now have a storm total of 2.5". The heavy snow looks great. It's fluffy and accumulating quickly. We'll see how the day ends up at the midnight ob.

Here's my 10:00pm ob Current temperature is 28.2 degrees with a dew point of 27.3 degrees. It is currently snowing moderately and has been for most of the past hour. I have not yet seen heavy snow. Snowfall accumulation in the last hour has been 0.5" giving me a storm total of 1.2". Waiting for the heavy stuff to arrive.

That "deathband" that's been hanging out down in Adams county is ever-so-slowly trying to move north towards me. @Cashtown_Coop can you please give it a nudge north? Thanks in advance.

Didn't this very same scenario just play out down in DC? They had advisory out which didn't upgrade to warning until just hours before the start. Amazing.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 949 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 PAZ036-056-063-064-070900- /O.UPG.KCTP.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220107T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0001.220107T0249Z-220107T0900Z/ Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 949 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Franklin, Perry, Cumberland and Adams Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS....The snow will be over before sunrise, but travel will likely still be slower than normal during the morning commute. Allow extra time in the morning for snow removal and longer than normal travel time to your destination.

ALEET ALEET ---NWS just upgrades advisories to Winter Storm Warning!!!

at 9:00pm in Carlisle, light snow was falling with a temperature of 28.9 degrees. Dew Point 27.7. Wet bulb 28.4. So not much more evaporational cooling expected. I just measured 0.7" of new snow, which is also the storm total. Everything is now white except my driveway which is turning white slowly. Looking forward to the heavy stuff coming north!

Whatever little might have been falling stopped about 20 minutes ago. Temp went back up to 32.9 while dew point dropped from 22 to 20. Wet bulb continues to drop as well, down now to 28.6. Calm wind.

Still waiting for the virga to reach the ground. I think maybe some is reaching the ground but I can't see it. Temp has been dropping, now down to 32.5 while the dew point is only up to 22. Wet bulb has actually dropped slightly from 29.3 to 29.1. What perfect conditions for it to start sticking almost immediately.

I'm in the tip of the arrow at the moment. I don't know if I've ever seen precip make an approach like this before. In any case I only have virga to report so far. Temp 34.7 with a dew point of 18. My wet bulb currently is 29.3, so evaporational cooling should fairly quickly pull my temp down to and then below freezing. I'll check back in as soon as the first flakes fly. I've got about an hour of enough daylight left to see the snow naturally (without any lights).

That 3-7" range should have a warning because the mid-point of that range is 5" which is the threshold for WSW. (I know the coverage has to be 50% or greater in any particular county to qualify.) Will be fun to see.

cheater!

My 4.4" guess is looking better and better.

Does that mean you wish you were also "South of the Border"?

Regarding the aforementioned "Pedro", I also immediately thought of South of the Border. Remember..."Pedro never sleeps..." and the revolving sheep above his head. ! And, don't forget to pick up a quart of milk at Piggly Wiggly, just down the road. I was traveling down to Florida several years before I-95 was constructed. Everyone used US 301, which did go right through SOB. I imagine business suffered quite a bit after the interstate bypassed them. I'm guessing the year was very close to 1972.

Already gave 4.4". Total qpf: 0.32"

MDT: 4.4"

I also had a sudden increase in winds between 3:00 and 4:00, though not nearly the magnitude. Highest gust was 12 mph. (My anemometer is partially sheltered as well). I was at my low of the night at 22.3 at 2:47 just as the winds began and one hour later at 3:46 I reached my high of the day at 35.2. Right now I'm locked in at 30 degrees.

Remember a little earlier with the MU post. They had a fairly large area of 3-6". That 6" wasn't being projected by anyone at that time. BTW, currently my temp is down to 26.8 degrees after a high of 36.1 (in the shade). I have about another 4 weeks of increasing sun elevation to go before my station goes into direct sun for any length of time. With each passing day my station will receive more sun. By the equinox it has at least enough sunlight during early to mid afternoon that I can trust my high temps again (until next November).

Wow. 5 to 5.5" for me. Right now CTP has me at 2 -3 inches. Don't know if I'll ever make it to a warning but I'm willing to bet the current upper end of 3" goes to 4". I must say the whole layout of the precip field just looks weird.