gravitylover

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Meant FAVORABLE, instead of variable. Bottom line, column appears a bit too warm along I95 for reaching potential of the 18z NAM (unless you use 7 to 1 or 8 to 1 ratio.  We even up here in Wantage lost the first 70 minutes of snow accum due to daylight and coming off a max T of 39.  When the temp dropped below 34 with the 3/4s-, then accum began during the late day.  Would have started sooner at night even at 34.  However, thats past.  I am concerned about power outages ne NJ eastward across S CT, or wherever acscums surpass 6".  Always learning from these events. 

Always learning... That's the key. I've been here in this house for nearly 23 years now and pretty much every weather event holds something new for me. 2018 was a string of new experiences.

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For those worried about the earlier warm temperatures, here's a reminder that snow can still accumulate afterward:

NYC: February 2017

February 8: High temperature: 62; February 9: 9.4" snow.

3/31/97 was near 60 and 4/1 was in the high 50's then that night I got 17". We had been experiencing a very early spring and the trees were nearly fully leafed out already. What a disaster that was.

31/29/SN just shy of 1" now. So far it looks like my worry about warm air isn't coming to pass but it has been snowing for 4 hours and I'm still under 1". Hopefully rates come up significantly later and flake size gets better. If I'm going to have an all snow storm I want it to be 'for real'. I'm not looking forward to more single digit temps this week though 

31/29/SN approaching 1" now. 

11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Some intense rates progged for the wee hours. Given that this is fixed at 10:1, I'd bump the shading north by a bit. A line from Peekskill to Mahopac to Danbury is my favored jackpot corridor, accounting for the best balance of liquid and improved ratios relative to areas closer to the water.

Ya think? Rt 6 FTW  

It started as all snow here about a half hour ago and the temp is dropping pretty quickly. It was 45 @ 4pm and it's 34 now.

35/28/SN-

Southbury CT it's currently 45* under a thin overcast. 

10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I prefer to say "immediate metro" which doesn't include NEPA, Sussex or even Monmouth and Ocean, in my view ( the sociological boundary is much more expansive, even including "metro" areas of its own, like the Edison statistical area, itself a sub-city ) it's just a flat out big area population wise, so the weather is gonna be a little different in some parts. When its cloudy or rains who cares ( well I know you do ) but snow amounts are a different thing. Last year I had just shy of 4 inches when areas to my west had double digits. 20 minute drive.

Dude don't you know that anything above Dyckman St is upstate and west of Fort Lee is never never land? 

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Pretty identical to me... 37/24 

It popped to 38 but as the high clouds moved in it dropped a bit then stabilized.

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

You may want to re calibrate your weather station. There aren’t any dews near 20 anywhere near the area, like 100 miles

Wrong. 36/24 here and there are some lower dp's in Westchester.

36/24/ENE4 high clouds moving in.

Thanks @wdrag. It's also tough since Jerry doesn't report from Yorktown anymore so there's no more reliable reports form the northern end of Westchester and I don't know of any trained spotters here in Putnam that report regularly. I've thought about it but my property doesn't lend itself to proper measuring.

Yeah right, what a beautiful morning out there. It doesn't look like a snowstorm is incoming does it?

Is there a place for soundings for KDXR and KPOU? I'm still trying to learn to read them but find some aspects to them quite useful already.

46 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The final NOHRSC for yesterdays snowfall: Note the spot 6" NJ/NYS s RI to CC. 

The northern extent of the heavier snowfall needs to be moved north by a pretty fair bit. There were lots of reports of 4" in Westchester and I'm right on the county line in Putnam and had 4.5". 

@Juliancolton I hope you're right. It sounds like most folks in the storm thread are pretty comfortable with it not being wet here at all. I don't trust any benchmark track storm with strong easterlies this close to the water.

I'm not liking the rain to start the storm in my forecast. That rarely makes for a good "winter" storm here. I'm just a bit too close to the water especially if the wind turns east with a southerly component to it. It's like the warm air banks up against the Taconics a few miles to my northwest and leaves me more wet than white especially being on an easterly aspect that's open to the south. I know it's supposed to cool significantly during the storm but I end up with warm air trapped for a while and it usually gives me a period of indeterminate mixed precip before the flip to snow. With as cold as it looks to be behind the storm there's going to be some ugly ice here. I really hope the wind turns northerly ahead of or as the storm moves in.

23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

With Officially 4.0 inches of snow in Central Park today NYC is now at 15.5 inches for the season which ties this season for 116th place out of the last 150 years of record keeping, tied with the winter of 1970/71.  

That winter was much colder than this winter, although not exceptionally so. What did fall stuck around a lot longer, January at 26.9° was the cold month that winter and with 11.4 inches of snow by far the snowiest. December at 34.4° and February at 35.1° were both near average for that period. March averaged 40.1° which is historically average, but a few degrees below what our new averages (1981-2010) are for March.

NYC now needs only 22.7 inches of snow in the next 22 months for the new 30 year average, which will be calculated in January 2021, to reach 30 inches per year. The current average snowfall for the period January 1991-March 2019 is now 30.5 inches. The 150 year average in NYC is 28.8 inches.

March now has 5.4 inches of snow for the first two days of the month, and only needs 1.1 inches by the end of the month to become the snowiest month of the winter season for the fourth time in the last five years.

This winter season now becomes only the second season in history that November and March will be the two snowiest months. The only other time this happened was the Winter of 1989-90.

I can already hear the whining about how far below avg we are in 2030 when we've warmed to the point that a storm like the one this morning is the biggest storm of the year and it only happens once every 2 or 3 years.

1 hour ago, SnowFeen said:

 

 

 

Okay this is me again, it’s tony a.ka. Weatherminator a.k.a weatherfeen, a,k.a. Tony loves snow. I’m sorry for all the bad things I’ve said and done. I want to start fresh here and a have a clean slate. I love weather and I love this forum and interacting with you guys. Is there a way you can please give me a second chance and if for once again I do something dumb you can ban me and I won’t ever come back again? 

I promise I won’t let anyone down

You let me down.

1 hour ago, SnowFeen said:

I swear on everything I will be good and I won’t ever offend anyone. I’ve learned so much about weather here it’s not even funny and I’d like to learn more. I’m sorry again for all the dumb things, please forgive me?

 

 

You straight up lied to me when I called you out the other day. That offends me. Go away.

Oooh I'm almost at 20" for the year now 

Fkn plow went down the street so fast the last few days they've broken up the pothole patch in front of my house. This morning it threw rocks 20 feet up the lawn and pummeled the side of the car in the driveway with asphalt chunks up to 3" and a ton of gravel. 

4 1/2". As soon as snow was cleared from anything it immediately turned wet even with no sun.

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

28.0° with moderate snow but intensity has let up some.

3.0 inches even so far from this event, 30 inches now for the season.  I'm guessing this will suppress the I want 80's and warm weather for March talk for a couple of days at least.

 

No I want 70* even more now. Not being allowed to go out and do "stressful" things like shoveling or riding my fat bike means I'm essentially trapped inside until it melts and dries. Heck, I'm stressed just thinking about dealing with my driveway until this stuff melts, my car is trapped because I can't move the plow pile and it only has 4.5" of clearance.

Just woke up and was quite surprised. I'm easily over 4", will go out and measure in a little while.

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Didn't Pam move to Montana or someplace?

South Dakota.

33 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah well I need a day off so I want an big impact. Sorry. And sorry you have to go to Tampa, or anywhere in Fl, for any reason. 

My brain wants a big impact but my heart disagrees   FL is a different place from the middle Keys on out, in fact it's a pretty great place out there. North of Marathon is pretty much useless to me...

53 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

29.5/24 Expecting around 4" tonight.

3" will get me to 30" for this pathetic year.

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

More than double what I have

I'm at 14" so yeah, double