DavisStraight

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Bad news.  ICON has given up the ghost on the back-end blizzard.

The ICON takes that second storm south of us, still rain, but a lot different then the GFS, what's the EURO doing with that second storm? The ICON led the way with the weekend storm.

57 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Hey guys I have a question......didn't want to muck up the storm threat thread so the banter thread seems appropriate......so I often check CA weather forecast since as most of you know I am from there......Bay Area to be specific....anyway right now there are actual blizzy warnings up in the Sierra range for this big ole system coming onshore now......question is are there different criteria for blizzy warnings depending on the location?  In most cases when I was living in CA it would only be Winter Storm Warnings for this area.....I'm talking foothills east of Sacramento and then the Lake Tahoe area......seems a blizzy warning is rare out there maybe cuz the severity of the storms are high compared to other parts of the country....like here I know theres something about 3 hrs of sustained wind greater than 30 mph or something during heavy snow......but out west in Lake Tahoe that seems easy to achieve so I'm wondering if NWS has different criteria based on region?

It just seemed weird to see the red blizzy on the map when I checked.......epic snows forecast up there anyway.....4-5 feet lol

I think 80-100 inches may qualify. Insane totals out there. Its probably different criteria for an urban area like Boston. Imagine Boston getting 6-8 feet.

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Wind is ripping tonight

Cold airs roaring in.

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro waaay east....weeeeee

We need an "I told you so" emoji.

ART will do

The next 6 weeks look to be more fun than the last 6 weeks.

10 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Because of the  earlier thoughts and prayers that I sent out.

Prayers are not always answered, just ask James

9 minutes ago, Tiktock said:

I live in Plaistow, NH.  We had a slim band near the NH/MA border that got absolutely destroyed.  Here's a book written on the event: https://www.amazon.com/Weight-Ice-Northeast-Storm-2008/dp/0979506778

Was 2008, not 2006.  My bad.

I still see some damage to trees from the 08 ice storm in Northern Worc County.

59 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Meh. I'm greedy. Need more.

I'd be ecstatic with that this year.

39 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Public wasn’t really made aware until around 36 hours out (or less).   The model(wasn’t there just one at the time) did well,

When I went to bed Sunday night I thought I was getting 2-4 inches and missing out on a huge storm.

14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The radar is brutal right now. The snow is so close to NYC but it's hitting a brick wall.

 

Looking at it yesterday and today you would think we get a piece of it, but not this year so far.

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Anything is on the table past behavior doesnt predict future outcomes in the chaotic nature of weather when it comes down to what is really mesoscale on a hemispheric basis. In other news HRRR gives ACK 2 to 3 big jump North west

Im surprised James hasn't been on that.

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

59+ in downeast ME. lol

Eastport was buried

Looks like we get a snow game, in KC, maybe gives Indianapolis a better chance.

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

The coastal is closer to the coast down near SNJ

I think NYC will see 1-2 inches with more to the south

The confluence is the killer once again

The confluence kills it, next week I feel something better.

7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I wouldn’t mind them so much if it wasn’t bone chilling right behind them. 

Its been rain, then windy and cold, rinse repeat.

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m gonna guarantee some snow for us come Sunday....

 

My dealer just called and said my new truck is in today...gonna pick it up Saturday!  So im hoping the snow misses now so I can have a few days of dry clean roads, so she stays clean for a bit.

 

Get ready for the come back in the models now boys...it’s a shoe-in for Sure.  

Thanks for spending 30k so we could get a little snow

Anyone have a euro update?

35 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Some of the worst black ice I have ever encountered on the drive home from hockey tonight. Roads were a rink too. At least in snow you are going slow. Going to be a lot of accidents in the valley. Our hill is still in fog and at 33*.

Came a whisker to getting killed because of black ice about 10 years ago, got lucky, had to do a couple shots of jack after that incident.

On 1/7/2019 at 8:39 AM, ORH_wxman said:

What part of ORH are you in MPM? 

Are you over by Tatnuck/Moreland hill, Salisbury, or maybe Newton Square? Kind of looks like some of those classic Victorian age houses over by Moreland/Tatnuck. Too bad you couldn't find one near top of Moreland hill to get an extra 200-300 feet of elevation. 

I was guessing Salisbury area when I first saw it.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is boring ... grant you that. 

As far as that 13/14th thing, I hearken back to my thoughts/first impressions yesterday morning when first seeing the GFS' eye-popper on the BM ... that its synoptic evolution was dubious at the time. I'm pretty sure others echoed that sentiment so I wasn't/not alone.

It was fine "within it's own construct" but the super-synopsis wasn't evolving ...or if it was, it was doing so covertly, and it wasn't very clear how or why the GFS was identifying the N/stream the way it was ... blah blah if one wants to go back and read ...it's like page 85 (  ).  .. Then, the GGEM threw a seemingly deliberate lie-bone to keep us prick-teased along ... ?  Sorry, as unreliable as that model may be, the fact of the matter is, it still uses the physical system of equations to propagate atmospheric phenomenon out in time, so less concision doesn't matter for present philosophy - it's the fact that it had it that should be of interest.  If your too stupid to wrap your head around why that is all important and instead feel inclined to chide, I can't help you.  

It's difficult to feel confident in any call at this time.  The irrational school is winning, and the "Stockholm" psychology has long taken its toll. Therein, there's virtually no one that believes based on the unrelenting exception-less abuses ...that we could possibly be preordained to any other reality than a gutted winter.

But, objective observer says, ...well wait: last check ... the hemisphere is edging into a pattern change. So the models  - yes ...even the Euro - as history shows every time, are prone to increased error.  That's because the forcing from different scales is in flux and...well, that's where I just lost the average reader.  Sufficed it is to say, they could all be missing the N/stream.  Which I still feel the handling above the 40th parallel from S of Alaska clear to NF is why, which is right smack in the region where said pattern change would tend to mean greatest stochastic returns. 

There's something to be said for the 1998 ALCS ... Imagine Game 4. The Red Sox have just taken a 5-3 lead on the Yankees, in Yankee Stadium, with Pedro Martinez on the Mound.  That's the idea of the 8th quadrature MJO pulse correlation with a +PNA and -A0 ... augmented by some SSW prequel logic.  But that setting doesn't say anything for why or how everyone in and outside of Baseball knew, that there was no way in hell that Pedro was coming out of that game with a W.   Powerless to stop it ... we watched, as Grady Little's meat-headed rah rah Gamma male cowering beneath the specter of Pedro's will to stay in the game could be stopped.  In the 7th when he was clearly off his velocity and control.  What happens... well, the Red Sox lost 7-5 of course ...or something like that... and then of course that horrible stench of inevitability went on ahead and rotted the rest of the Series and blithely the 'Sox season ended there.  

But then I think about 2004 ... being 0-3 in the same damn Series against the same damn Yankees ... Could there be more abysmal aroma?  ... Makes the paragraph above feel like a b-j by comparison... Yet we all no what happened.  

I guess the moral of this, which no one has likely even read this far ... is not to get caught up in the trend-weeds.  I think if folks just really learned to live and breath and intrinsically accept at all scales of reality, from Plank time scales to eternity and back, that there will always be utterly unpredictable disappointment levied ... like some great taxation for the privilege of existential sentience ... it wouldn't allow such conditionalizing guide one's outlook.

That was game 7 2003, I still get your point

28 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

they dropped so much of it in places here that it looks like a dusting of snow, I don't like it either bc of my small dogs

Same here, thought we had graupel, diddly tonight but better times ahead.

57 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Indeed.....this is it folks....it’s this one and then it’s ovah....lolz 

Its going to show storm after storm, probably wont all hit but the GFS should be better looking in the days ahead.

Things are looking up, better than looking at a cutter following a cutter

few white pellets on my wood pile, take what I can get.

Its not far from being decent, lets see what a few more runs do.