FPizz

Maybe stop looking for KU's 24/7? We went through an unprecedented stretch and now people think we should get them every year. Some of the garbage calls here the past several weeks: Strong PV MJO was never making it past p7 Thanksgiving to opening of Dec would torch December would be warm Mid month warmup Strong PV again Xmas Torch But yet they post away like they are always right and never say oops. Typical narcissistic behavior. Eventually they will get something right, lol. Snow is always hard to come by here. It always takes a lot of things to come together correctly, even for small snowfalls.

I think we just follow the model runs way more closely during the cold months. In the summer, do we really care is a model says it is going to be 95 in 8 days and it turns out to be 88? Or if a model says 1.00" of rain and we get .4"? Unless I have outdoor plans, I rarely look at model runs from like April through October unless a hurricane is around the states. I know another board that tracks 100 degree days that the GFS and Euro models spit out per run for Philly. I think several times each year, models spit out record breaking 105 degree + days multiple times, and I think in 2024, the GFS spit out 100 or over for Philly over 100 different times, only too verify 0.

Tomorrow my forecast low is 13. I have no clue what the record might be around here.

So funny how the "Denier" posts always get shitposted here, but like I've said a million times, there are plenty of trash climate activist posts to equal the denier crap. The people here fall hook, line and sinker for those, it is pretty funny.

He has to stick to his forecast now. You know the deal...

31, sleet

Snowing

.79"

Of course, it is 150 hours out. The Ukie is 250 miles off the South Carolina coast. If anyone acts like they know a damn, they are lying.

The date that the chart shows a 2nd slight weakening is mid-month, so he was showing the mid month calls might be wrong (like half the posts here since Oct 1). It doesnt take a genius to say that the PV will eventually strengthen. A 2 year old can make that same statement, it isn't a bold call.

Is the ext available to compare the same outputs? Maybe instead of doing the loop in phase 7, it does it right on the line between 7/8 then goes back into 8. Yesterdays did the loop in 7

I think it is safe to say these haven't been good past week 1. Also, saying anything is consistent day 14/15 is just silly

He's uncertain about 3.5 weeks from now, which is just stating the obvious really. I get there are levels of uncertainty, but 20+ days from now is always going to be low. Models haven't really been too steady past day 10 or so for the past several weeks. Look at this eps trend gif for Dec 1 going back a few runs. Can it flip back, maybe, but having any confidence in longer range right now seems pretty futile.

Nice GFS run for mid-next week (weenie)

And? Its colder than normal when if you look at his posts, he thought torch