tamarack

GFS is doing its usual qpf build-up from this distance. If its pattern repeats, modeled qpf will peak tomorrow then shrink to about half by Tuesday morning.

Far preferable to big ZR for this forester. 1998 was mostly sleet where we live now (maybe 1/4 of precip was ZR) while it was all ZR in Gardiner where we lived in Jan. 1998. There were more and bigger broken branches/trees on our 0.8-acre house lot in Gardiner than on our 100-times-bigger woodlot in the foothills. The change from ZR-some/no-IP and IP-some-ZR was about 10 miles south of here, recognizable in 1998 by small/medium branches on the ground/huge branches and whole trees down. From this distance, 16th looks all snow, 18-19 SN/IP.

Quick drop from teens to near zero last evening, then it hung at zero to +2 all night before dropping to -5 between 6 and 7 this morning. I think the air was mixing too much during the wee hours. Bright blue currently but with some wispies on the south horizon.

Jan. 8-9, 1953 (45 years to the day before 1998) on the hills N and W of NYC. Five miles away and 200' lower it was RA and the hills 200' higher than our 700' had "asparagus trees" - sticks with all the branches piled around them. Ice fell off on Jan 10 - had 6" cracked ice in our driveway - but it was the 14th before the lights came on. My 2nd oldest wx memory, behind the 1950 Apps gale.

1953 and 1998 - two monster ice storms. A third is unnecessary.

Fixed. Jan 27-28 was a great storm (wish I'd been here to see it) but the rest was meh, climaxed by the VD massacre. Lots of time for things to change for the better (or . . ) Seems like the only storms this season where I've done as good or better than points south have been 4:1 slop or low end advisory. March for payback?

06z GFS no dream for here - 2 or 3 whiffs/fringes followed by 2 cutters (then a day 14 snowstorm .) Won't happen that way, fortunately.

17", first of three 16"+ events that year - Feb-Mar total was 89.3" that year. Nearly vacuumed a partridge with the snowblower at 6 AM on the 6th near the end of the storm here. Dog was on the trolley and began barking - tie-out from trolley was buried in the new snow and he felt trapped. Started in with the machine but the dog was getting frantic so I stopped the blower and took two quick steps when the bird burst out of the snow, whacking my leg a few times with its wings.

-15 here, rare that I'm colder than BML. Saw -21 at PQI.

We had about 0.3" RA at the end of the Jan. 16 storm (Most while I was clearing the slop from the driveway) but that's all since the Grinch. It's popped a few degrees above 32 several times but our last 40+ was in the wee hours of 12/26 as temps coasted down from the Christmas torch. Finished at 0.9" from 0.07" LE, about what was forecast. 17" pack is 2" BN for the date; 43.4" total snow is about 10" BN.

Maybe up to 0.9" and it looks about done, in 6 hours of S-. No such thing as bad snow but this was stretching it a bit.

2 hours of flakes and have not reached 0.1" yet. Not surprised.

Can't say I agree. Last year my 2 biggest snowfalls came after the equinox. In 22 winters here I've had 16 events of 15"+ and a quarter of them have come in calendar spring.

For total snowfall and big pack, 07-08 was tops. For big storms (in a good winter so 03-04 need not apply) 00-01 and 16-17 were best - each had 3 storms greater than 15" and rank 2-3 behind 07-08 for total snowfall.

Story of the season so far, at least northeast from 44/71. Maybe climo asserts itself in March?

Likewise. All small flakes and took 9 hours to make 2.3" on 0.20" LE. Still, it was the only 2"+ event here to top 10:1. Others have ranged from 4.5 to 9.7, with only a small amount of IP (in one event) and no ZR included. Makes for a solid pack, however, though 12/25 would've killed almost any pack.

12z GFS was also a bit more than 06 or yesterday. Maybe a repeat of yesterday instead of 1/2"?

Helps that BTV radar can pick up the upslope so well. GYX beams are pretty high by the time they reach the mountains. Also, BTV has (or is near to) a skiing vibe while GYX is much less so.

In my NNJ years we very rarely had powder on powder. Even powder on crust wasn't that frequent. My memory has only 2 winters, 60-61 and 66-67, with multiple pow-pow scenarios. Finished with 2.3" from 9 hours of S-. Maybe another inch tomorrow night, Friday is gone, we'll see about next weekend. At least there's interesting stuff to track. Most of last month was a boring desert.

Current GYX for our area is 2-3. Something like yesterday's 1.1 seems more likely. Teeny differences.

So does the most horrid Grinch storm ever. Checking N. Maine records, Van Buren temps were 41° AN on 12/25. 30° departures tend to set monthly records; 40s break all time station records. The local co-op in Farmington has one in 128 years and NYC one in 152. (Both set on 12/30/1917)

Only 1.1" yesterday but the trees are nicely prettied up. Like everyone here I'd love a blockbuster, but getting an inch or three several times a week (and no big rains) can make for a decent winter. Like a mini 07-08.

With 2 double-digit snows? Each bigger than any I've had this winter or last? Looking at all the previous 22 winters here, I'm a weak D/D- thru Jan. 31, D for snow, D- for temps. Noted on that AN table that the only NNE locale is CON, which is more CNE. Not surprised.

How often has this sequence played out this winter's active periods? Models show a good-looking event until inside 100 hr when it fizzles but there's another nice one coming a few days later, which then gets inside 100 and . . . Pete and re-Pete. A couple down-sequence ones have come thru but that's been the exception.

If 24" instead of 30 counts as a hole.