tamarack

Copied 40/70 from the December thread. Oh, okay. Well, my point was that el nino winters are usually more back loaded for SNE than la nina, but the caveat being that that maybe mostly due to February. You may have a case for March temps, however, I am more confident that el nino is better for March snow in SNE than la nina. Obviously its subjetive...I am talking about SNE because I live here and its a NE subforum. Maybe NNE is different, at least for my place starting with 98-99 (SN expressed as percent of average): ENSO Mar. SN n Strong Nino 38% 1 (15-16) Mod. Nino 28% 2 Weak Nino 111% 4 La Nada 74% 7 Weak Nina 166% 4 (March 2001 is my snowiest month here - 55.5") Mod. Nina 108% 4 Strong Nina none yet

Maine was the slight outlier, as shown on the temp anomaly maps. March 2010 didn't get anywhere near 80 - topped out in mid 60s - but never got down lower than 11 and at my place had 28 AN days. 2012 had that incredible 6-day run of 20-28° AN but also was subzero on the 6th and had 11 days with BN temps. 2012 had 50% of average precip and 80% (14.6") of average snowfall. 2010 had 180% of average precip and 3% (0.6") of average snowfall. Maine was different because it was closer to the January retro-bomb that ate our winter.

Maybe. The didn't get much ice on Jan 8-9, 1998.

A bit rich for me. However, this brought back memories of when I was asst scoutmaster for our troop in NNJ, and we had the scouts up to Snow Valley in 1970 and 1971. Steeplechase was the fun slope, lots of room to play in though the constant side slope on the upper half added some challenge. Did not do the jump but somewhere have pics of one of the scouts launching then landing - poorly though unhurt. Was a bit sad when it closed, but with Bromley looming to the north and Magic/Stratton also nearby, it was in a tough spot. Had fun with that site, though I noted that Eaton Mountain in Skowhegan wasn't listed, nor was Craigmeur in New Jersey. The latter had only about 270' vertical and only natural snow back around 1970 but the trails were as smooth as a golf fairway so it didn't take much snow to be skiable. It was one of the few areas with the lodge at the summit. Saw some of Enchanted some years back when we looked for a workable trail route up Coburn Mt - the firewarden trail went straight up the fall line (and thru the ski area) and so was unsuitable for heavy use due to the inevitable trail wear and subsequent erosion. It's been widened a bit by the snowmobile folks and is advertised as the highest groomed trail in Maine. The ski area was actually on Johnson Mt Twp as they probably couldn't get permission to extend to the summit thru the state public lot on Upper Enchanted Twp - would've added 5-600' vertical. (Probably wouldn't have mattered - the place was in the middle of nowhere with zero related infrastructure nearby, thus a poor prospect.)

Chimney Pond is perhaps 110 miles farther north than Hermit Lake, which might affect their relative snowfall. Chimney reached 94" in 2017, knocking Farmington's 84" out of the lead it had held for 48 years.

Short memories? They had over 500k customers out from the Oct. 2017 gale; that's a few thousand more than in 1998, though in '17 most were re-powered within 2-3 days while the ice storm had many thousands dark for 2 weeks +.

After seeing nearby cocorahs reports I can't be too critical of snow total verification. Chesterville, 7-8 miles to my SW, reported 2.9" from over 2" total precip, not quite half my 6.0 and with considerably more precip. 12 miles to my WSW, the Temple observer at 1220' had 11.5". 3 stations, all within less than a 30 minute drive from each other, and a 1-2-4 ratio of snowfall.

Snowfall was surprisingly variable in southern Franklin County. Have not heard from the co-op, but 6 miles south in Chesterville only 2.9" was reported, at elev. 384'. Six miles west of the co-op I had 6.0" at 390' and 7 miles WNW in Temple - at 1220' - there was 11.5".

Had 1.5" of 9:1 snow (almost powder ) overnight, so storm total is 6.0" with 1.38" LE, plus the 0.10" RA at the start. Oddly there's more in the driveway, 5"+, than at the stake, 4". No drifting at all, just chunks blowing out of the trees which didn't impact either spot.

4.5" at 9 PM, a bit more than I'd thought, but only a bit. However, I discovered why the forecast busted - nothing but flakes noon on and LE (without the 0.10" RA at the start) was 1.19" for a lovely ratio of 3.8. Even a wet 8:1 would've put me up near that Will measured. I think maybe that the flakes were so moist when they landed that they played flexible Tetris and self-compacted throughout the storm.

About the same depth here, not quite the morning forecast of 12-18 nor the midstream update to 8-12, as the good bands refused to come more than about 5 miles NW of I-95. Heavy precip now is downeast, but probably RA/mix within 30 miles of salt water. Many flickers here and 7-8 full blacks - only for 1-2 seconds, not enough to start the gennie but plenty to foul up computers and TV.

Struggling to reach 2". GYX' latest "most likely" for Farmington is 9", down from this morning's 14. Gray and Augusta pegged for 6", but I'd not be surprised given the radar if they got the 9 and we got the 6. At least it's not a slushy mess.

Looks like about 5° off plumb, meaning his 8" is really only 7.97". Reached 1" at 3 PM after 3 hours of SN.

Which stubbornly resists much northward movement. Should that continue, I see a significant bust, 12-18" becoming maybe 6-8 (which still ain't too shabby for 1st week DEC.) 1/2"/hr isn't going to get our depth anywhere near the forecast. Still time, however.

Flipped to all snow a couple minutes before noon - only 0.10" wasted precip. Took until 12:30 before leaves and grass were noticeably lighter in color and by 1 PM we had moderate SN with a tenth or 2. Temp slid from 35 to 32 over the last hour.

Ski Sugarloaf.

Mid 30s with RA- and occasional catpaws. If rates pick up the changeover would begin. Edit: Farmington snow potential now 6/14/22,. serious boost to the 10% chance, others much the same.

Wow! Just got punched up to 6/14/19. Shazam! Warmer, pastier and less areal coverage version of 2003? Only a day early. (That beast dropped 24" of 14:1 pow with blizzard criteria for about 12 hours.)

Last month we had a short period of "stuff" that rattled thru the branches and on the leaves just like IP. However, what landed on my wool jacket was opaque and quite irregular in shape, obviously flakes very heavily rimed, or half-melted and refrozen. 12-18? I'll have to look at GYX's "90%/most likely/10%" table again. An hour ago it had Farmington at 0/10/11".

GYX was noting model flip-flops and potential huge impacts on qpf and p-type, starting before they posted the watch. Can't speak for other WSOs.

Houlton hammerer.

Tasty. And it's good to see a Maine poster from north of 45°. It's been a while since we've had anyone from the northeasterly 85% of the state..

Depends on the size of the wiggles. At times the models' wiggling resembles me trying to shoot - offhand without a rest - a deer facing me and 250 yards away. The crosshairs are on target about 5% of the time and right or left the other 95.

It will come back, and then go away again. Then . . .

Maybe for orographics, as seen near MWN (which had surprisingly little - 11.7" while Pinkham recorded 43") but not for temps/p-type, except in SE-most New England. NYC had 14" of 15:1 pow at mid-upper 20s. BOX and PVD each had 17" from 2.1" LE and temps 20s to low 30s, so probably some mixing there. BDL got 18.5" of 11:1 at low-mid 20s.