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Everything posted by tamarack
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Not surprising thanks to Laura. Same ACE, twice the TCs.
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Up here March 19-20, 2014 was forecast for 3-5 and we got 13.3" before it changed to rain. Farmington had less rain and recorded 16.9". The Jan 2015 blizzard was forecast for 8-12 in our area and we got 20", but we stayed an extra day with the grandkids in SNJ (where the 12-16 forecast verified at 1.5) so to avoid driving thru the storm.
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Jan-Feb 1979 were freaky in Ft. Kent for the extremes. In 10 Januarys there we had 5 days with minima above 32 and all were in '79. We also had 5 mornings at -39 or below (6th place is -37) and 3 were in that same month. PWM had 62.4" of snow that month, most for any month, and their 2nd biggest event- 27.1" - came on Jan 17-18. On the 17th my max-min touched -47. I'd been at our company's camp just across from St.-Pamphile, PQ and it was "only" -40 there. At home my wife noted that the red alcohol on the indoor-outdoor was well below the -40 bottom of the scale but the max-min on the detached garage measured down to -60 and so caught the record. PWM had 6.8" on Jan 25-26 and 8.6" on 30-31 while Ft. Kent had rain and mid-30s with catpaws. Finally snowed a bit on 2/1 as temps gradually slid downward. Feb 10-17 never got above -2. The wind on those 8 days never quit, which kept the mornings from dropping below -22 but at times the wind was such that one could not face it without tearing up, and first blink froze the eyelids together - "walk backward" days. Then March was nearly snow-free. The early '50s were awful in NNJ though they included the Jan 1953 ice storm that jump-started my interest in both weather and trees. The 24" storm of March 18-19, 1956 was a revelation after 5 winters w/o anything above maybe 8".
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The "good" in the 1980s was mostly in the far north. The 1980s were Farmington co-op's worst for snow with 73.5" average compared to the long-term average of 90". 1979-80 and 80-81 are 2nd lowest and lowest snowfall winters they've recorded. For 79-80 thru 84-85, my last 6 winters in Fort Kent, they recorded an average of 68"/year while I measured 127"/yr. If I (or some Methuselah) had recorded Fort Kent at my locations there from 1893 on, their average would probably be about 120" compared to Farmington's 90.
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I don't think anyone had bunches of months of the BN temps, AN precip and record low snowfall trifectas during those winters. Also, 81-82, 83-84 and 86-87 were pretty good in NNE. The first 2 were especially big winters in Fort Kent, the 3rd had 4 warned storms plus an advisory event in January to build the pack that produced the greatest peak flow ever recorded in Maine, on the Kennebec on 4/1/87.
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But if one of those 1-per-game hits is a "perfect" grand slam, 2-out walkoff while 3 runs down, that's what folks will remember. A 20-game streak with .400 BA but only one HR (this year) or the "perfect slam" (1992 when August 15 arrived w/o a singe named storm), it only takes one - as many have noted - and this year is "one, so far". Edit: I wonder if the recent awakening of the previously somnambulant West PAC has any bearing on our TCs.
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Considerably less prevalent here, only 32% (7 of 22 with 3 others having "T" OG and 2 getting a 1" cover the following day.) The white T-Day years, with AN winters boldface: 2000, 2002, 2005, 2011, 2014, 2018, 2019. Those 7 winters averaged 90.4", or 0.2" B below my current average - essentially dead on. The AN winters include #2 (2000-01) and the BNs have 2nd lowest (2005-06). Deepest is 11" in both 2014 and 2018. My conclusion is that T-Day snow cover tells us nothing about the coming winter here.
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But 60" over the next 50 days once that month was done healed (almost) all wounds.
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September (and April-May) snow in Denver isn't terribly unusual. Snow 2 days after 97° is record-setting, and hard to comprehend.
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Jan. 1-4, 2014 averaged 26.8° BN. Jan. 6-15 produced 3 rain events (middle one had 0.2" SN) with 3.29" total precip, at which point the month was running 4.2° BN with 3.46" precip (twice the avg) and 2.1" snow. Rest of the month was slightly BN with 0.30" precip and 3.0" SN. You can't make this stuff up.
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In New England, especially NNE, one can see full colors and green throughout the season - the dark greens of spruce and fir make for wonderful contrast. Actually a bit behind the average around our place, but the early-turn sugar maples along the road a mile toward town are 2/3 changed - not sure if it's health or genetics, but they're consistently early.
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4.3". Only 1991 with 4.0 had less. January average is 21.0. 1990-91 had 69.1" snow while 2013-14 had 108.0". Farmington's average is 90.0". The cold snowstorm in early January 2014 brought only 2" while SNE mostly had double digits. (Side trail: on Jan 2 CAR had no snow but temp -15/-28.) After the early cold (I had -31 on the 4th, one of only 5 mornings -30 or colder in 22 winters) we had 3 rain events and never had another 1" snowfall until February.
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That "paster" was forecast as 3-5" advisory snow but dumped 13.3" overnight before ending with a couple tenths RA. Even so, the 46" pack at 7 AM only settled to 43 at my 9 PM obs. Farmington didn't change until right at the end and got 16.9".
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In the Northeast it's 1934 having the greatest competition with 2015. Only valid NE record I've found back beyond 1875 is NYC, and Feb that year is only 7th coldest, 5.2° less cold than 2/34. That site recorded its 3rd coldest Feb in 2015. 2013-14 was a good winter marred by a frustration January - BN temps, precip way AN, and 2nd lowest snowfall in the Farmington co-op's 128 Januarys. That's an unusual trifecta. However, the winter had 5 double-digit snowstorms, most in any winter here, though greater than 13.5". Also ranks #3 for Snow Depth Days and is one of 5 winters in which pack got above 40". Also the coldest March on record at that co-op (as was February the next year.).
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21 of 22 for September frosts - only in 2011 did 1st frost wait until October, and that was a hard freeze on 10/6. Median date of 1st one is 9/19 but it's ranged from 1st to 30th.
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The state system won't allow that. Parks and Lands can't even advertise the position until I'm fully retired and the process (getting a register, setting up interviews, receiving permission to make an offer) will take several months. We've talked of my coming back on a contract, for that training and because 2021 is when we have to undergo a full recertification audit by the Forest Stewardship Council - happens every fifth year. It's a complex process, and while I'm sharing some details with our recently (May) hired assistant bureau director, the new chief forester probably could use some background (unless a long-time bureau forester were to get the job.)
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About 3 months ahead of me - enjoy!
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Odd to see one growing on a slant, as they're about the straightest and most vertical of all deciduous trees, though like all of that group it will tilt toward the sun if shaded on one side. Five feet in diameter? Which lake - there's a bunch in that corner of the state.
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Hard to get the right scale, but it might be large enough (significantly bigger than hornets/yellowjackets) to be a wood wasp. They're solitary and non-stinging.
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Not as good in Maine but still decent. Not interested in solar, would need to cut loads of trees and make frequent roof trips to clear off the snow. We're exploring the heat pump option, more for AC than for heat, in part because the only place for installation (without removing windows, cabinets or both) is 10-12' from the woodstove.
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Had a dust devil that summer of 1966 where I worked. It was a hot and dry day with little wind before a strong north wind arrived mid afternoon. The spin-up started at the south end of the lodge - we heard some things crashing - then moved north behind the lodge before cutting west across the beach to the lake. On its way it tossed thick chaise lounge cushions into treetops and flipped over one of the heavy wooden lounges several times and turned the 14' aluminum boat upside down. It picked up one of those thigh-high ashtrays, lifted it 40-50' and carried it across the lake (only about 1,000') before dissipating in the woods on the far side. Watching that black ashtray going round and round amid a sand cloud was amazing.
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Really? 1965 set records for lowest precip year in all 3 SNE states, also DE, NJ, PA. And it wasn't just 1965. Using NYC as proxy, because of their 151-year POR: 1960s average: 43.20" 1962: 37.20" 20th lowest 1963: 34.28" 5th lowest, saved from setting new #1 by a 4" RA Nov. 7-8 1964: 33.00" New record (lasted one year) 1965: 26.09" 'nuf said '65 Jan-Aug: 19.06" '66 Jan-Aug: 19.80" (And met summer was 4.8° warmer than '65.) Then Sept. 1966 brought 8.7" and things moved back to normal.
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9/65 worse for New England, slightly less bad in the MA as the dry wx hung on a bit longer there. And if a long-term drought can be said to end on one day, NYC's 5.54" on 9/21/66 was that day, though no one knew it at the time. But from there on out, precip was more normal, with some significantly AN years coming soon.
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Is that map available for, say, Sept. 15, 1966?
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Northern Maine got fringed by 1978, about 2". And while they did okay with the "Mayor Lindsey" storm in early Feb 1969, the big dog in late month was mainly a whiff. VT had huge variation that month, BTV getting 17" and St. Johnsbury 60, BTV 6" from the late month dump vs. 35" for St.J. The March 2011 storm dumped 19" at Eustis while 40 miles SSE we had a lot of RA followed by 2" IP then enough ZR to take out power. Bad memories - my spinal stenosis symptoms (I had no idea yet on what was going on) were getting worse. Had a day-long forestry conference in Orono and my wife was house sitting near BGR. Got home at 8, all was dark and the house about 45 inside with teens outside. Usually I'm quite cold-tolerant but that night I just couldn't get warm, even under a pile of blankets and the woodstove going full blast.