tamarack

Location, location, location. No bust at ACK (about 0.1% of Boston's wx bailiwick) - they've reported heavy rain in recent hours and winds 30sG50 since I first looked at 7 this morning. Maybe all that RA and many hours of sustained TS-force wind loosens a few tree roots?

Beautiful. Saw some electric reds and oranges the past 2 days, Monday driving to Orono and yesterday in the woods around Bigelow Mt.

Got nailed by one of those critter near the dam at Flagstaff Lake, where they probably had low 20s last week. Eleven of us standing near the shore in a fresh breeze, and the little beast hit and stung immediately. Saw a 2nd one crawling stupidly on the ground later. No one else had any issues.

Touched 25 yesterday, about the same this morning. High temp for Oct 1-5 is 56, average 53 - just right for cutting some firewood. Looks like a bit warmer next week, but no torch (which in Oct means 70s here.)

That offer (and it was a 10% rebate - typo) occurred at least 40 years ago, when pundits were (incorrectly, of course) worrying about a new ice age. And when I was still using a snow scoop to clear Fort Kent's average of 130" while we lived there.

Just don't be headed down the west side toward Lincoln when the leaf peeper chair is closing at Loon. Many years ago we hit that on the Saturday of Columbus Day weekend and spent 2 hours coasting 7 miles until we passed the ski area. (A beautiful day in the 70s at full color, we had no time constraint, so just put the car in neutral and enjoyed the view.)

Many years back when we lived in Fort Kent, an Aroostook dealer of snowblowers promised a 1 rebate if CAR snowfall that next winter was less than 50%. The CAR average for 79 winters is 114" and the lowest on record is 59" - pretty safe for the dealer.

Nice history, nice colors. There's a lot of northeast Aroostook where the woods are mainly conifer-aspen-white birch, and fall is mainly just yellow. Where there's maples, like these pics, we'd get two peaks, one for maples and yellow birch then the aspens about 10 days later. Nitpic: Hanson Lake isn't in CAR. Not PQI either though it's close to the Mapleton/PQI line.

I'll be close to that first one next Friday, as my knees are acting up, especially the right one. Did something to it 2 years ago while dragging a deer up a rutted, blowdown-strewn skidder track. The 2nd one is where they put on my walking cast in 1981, and where we took our son 3 years earlier as he had 15 minutes of grand mal seizure, the reason for his medical test the day my back muscles went on strike, violently.

Our first year in Fort Kent we lived 50 yards from the St. John, and September had a couple foggy 34s before we finally got a frost on the 26th. That was 12 days later than any of the other 9 first-frosts, and 20 days behind the average of those 9. Hope your back is muscles only. Hurts at least as much (my mom said her back spasm pain was worse than her broken back) but doesn't involve the spine. My first such event (Feb. 1981) came a month after our pickup lost its fight with a log truck, while I was still in a walking cast that made my left leg 3" longer than the right. Was at PQI hospital (son getting a test) when I reached for toddler daughter's books - weighed a pound, maybe - and as I drew them toward me it was like a knife sinking into my back, probably the most intense pain I've ever had. Walking 20' from bed to bath took 15 minutes with at least 3 points of solid contact at all times, to avoid the smallest bit of sudden move and another stab of the knife.

Boston has 30%+ snowfall departures all the time, but in 79 winters CAR has recorded snowfall under 70% of average just 7 times, and only twice since 1961-62. They've been 130%+ a bit more often, with 10 such winters. Thus 78% of CAR winters have had snowfall within 30% of their average. At BOS that figure is just 48%. Or to turn that around, 52% of BOS winters are more than 30% from their average, while at CAR it's 22% with such variance. (My BOS data only goes back thru 1920, with 96-97 and 97-98 missing, so 97 winters, with 28 under 70% and 22 over 130%.) You could be exactly right, but climo says the odds of verification are much longer at CAR..

And beyond. One of the forest certification auditors was unable to book a room in Farmington for Oct. 15-18 because all the lodging was already full - he'll be commuting daily from Augusta.. There's not a huge bedroom resource but it's a college town so there's more than might be expected from a community of its size. High to peak on Mile Hill in our town, and 75%+ leaf drop on neighborhood ash species. Overall leaf drop is about 1/3.

Not New England, but some from my former life in NNJ - chronological, not prioritized: Nov. 1950 Apps Gale - my 1st wx memory. Watched trees thrashing until tops began falling, at which point dad thought it wise to go inside. Jan. 1953 Ice Storm - 45 years (to the day) prior to #1, above. 6 days w/o power, probably piqued my interest both in wx and trees. March 1956 - 24" dump, my first big snowstorm. Feb. 1961 - 24" or more atop a 25"+ pack, greatest depth in NJ records. NYC's strongest Feb wind. New Year's Eve 1962 - Winds gusting probably to 70 (uprooted huge bare-limbed oaks) with temp 5/-8, vies with 11/50 for strongest winds I've seen. Backside winds from the storm that ate BGR. Jan. 1966 - Baltimore blizzard, 15-18" pow at mid teens, winds gusting 50s, some side streets remained impassible a week later. Aug. 1971 - PRE plus TS Doria, 8.9" RA in about 20 hours. Top winds about same as Hazel, Bob (gusts approaching 60)

2nd time for them, after tonight.

Hard to believe that the airplane could even get airborne on pure jet fuel - maybe with a mix? It's a lot different than high octane avgas.

2nd hottest October day for Central Park (94 in 1941) and just the 6th 90+ in 151 Octobers and 1st since that the 94/90 on the 5th/6th of '41..

Had 0.81" last evening, most 8-midnight, with a single loud clap of thunder about 8:15 and no further rumbles except for rain-on-roof. Odd, and we had another one-shot TS in early August.

Mosquitoes give malaria to mammals, mammals give malaria to mosquitoes, and back and forth it goes. From Will's description, the EEE cycle is longer (correct this if it's wrong): Mosquitoes give EEE to humans, humans give EEE to mosquitoes, mosquitoes give EEE to birds, birds give EEE to mosquitoes, mosquitoes give EEE to humans, etc. etc. It's the italicized steps that add the complexity. Agree with the final sentence, as I've not seen one of the little buggers since our freeze on Sept. 19.

Major leaf drop near our place from last evening's rain - ash trees are almost into stick season. However, the maples are showing some lovely reds/oranges, especially along Route 27 on Mile Hill.

Data from CDC. Looks like 2 "epicenters", FL/GA(VA) and MA/NY. I wonder if neotropical migratory songbirds most commonly infected have seasonal concentrations in those 2 areas. certainly doesn't point to a direct relationship between warming climate and EEE; one would think that a south-to-north gradient would be more logical. Or as Will has noted, it's more complex than a simple insect/human interaction. And although the disease nasty - has been about 40% fatal (30 of 72) in that data set, how panicky should we be over 7 cases/year? (Top year in that data was 2010, with 15.) Eastern equine encephalitis virus neuroinvasive disease cases reported by state of residence, 2009–2018

Couple weeks ago there were big headlines of "30 Billion Fewer Birds", I think as compared to 30 years ago. Unfortunately, but typical of MSM, there was no further context. Was it 30 billion fewer than 100 billion birds? A trillion? Given the vagaries of wildlife populations, a 3% decrease is a statistical blip that could result from a single nest-wrecking spring gale running through where the neotropical migrant species breed, but a 30% drop warrants serious investigating. (IMO, the biggest factor for those species is land use in there winter ranges.)

No doubt the climate is warming, but extremes are nothing new. We had mid-upper 70s the 4th week of October at 47N in 1979. (And missed the snowstorm 2 weeks earlier - too far north.)

Difference was the evening event on 23-24, which 1.7" to 2.9" on the Route 2 corridor from Rumford to Newport along with some spots 20-40 miles north of there. And almost nothing to the south.) High for the month was 76, tied with '94 and '96 as coolest max. Low was 27 on the 19th, slightly below my average for the month's coolest. 3.18" RA was 1/2" BN but kicked the median into a virtual tie with February for driest median. 2.11" RA was recorded on the 24th though about half came on the 23rd after my 9 PM obs.

55/30 yesterday, coolest daily max and mean of the month, pulling the final average to 2.7° BN. 2nd coolest of 22 Septembers and average max was coolest while average min was 5th.

Another windshield scraper this morning, with ash leaves drifting down. That species is more than 1/3 of the trees near the house and they're about 75% bare.