tamarack

About the same depth here, not quite the morning forecast of 12-18 nor the midstream update to 8-12, as the good bands refused to come more than about 5 miles NW of I-95. Heavy precip now is downeast, but probably RA/mix within 30 miles of salt water. Many flickers here and 7-8 full blacks - only for 1-2 seconds, not enough to start the gennie but plenty to foul up computers and TV.

Struggling to reach 2". GYX' latest "most likely" for Farmington is 9", down from this morning's 14. Gray and Augusta pegged for 6", but I'd not be surprised given the radar if they got the 9 and we got the 6. At least it's not a slushy mess.

Looks like about 5° off plumb, meaning his 8" is really only 7.97". Reached 1" at 3 PM after 3 hours of SN.

Which stubbornly resists much northward movement. Should that continue, I see a significant bust, 12-18" becoming maybe 6-8 (which still ain't too shabby for 1st week DEC.) 1/2"/hr isn't going to get our depth anywhere near the forecast. Still time, however.

Flipped to all snow a couple minutes before noon - only 0.10" wasted precip. Took until 12:30 before leaves and grass were noticeably lighter in color and by 1 PM we had moderate SN with a tenth or 2. Temp slid from 35 to 32 over the last hour.

Ski Sugarloaf.

Mid 30s with RA- and occasional catpaws. If rates pick up the changeover would begin. Edit: Farmington snow potential now 6/14/22,. serious boost to the 10% chance, others much the same.

Wow! Just got punched up to 6/14/19. Shazam! Warmer, pastier and less areal coverage version of 2003? Only a day early. (That beast dropped 24" of 14:1 pow with blizzard criteria for about 12 hours.)

Last month we had a short period of "stuff" that rattled thru the branches and on the leaves just like IP. However, what landed on my wool jacket was opaque and quite irregular in shape, obviously flakes very heavily rimed, or half-melted and refrozen. 12-18? I'll have to look at GYX's "90%/most likely/10%" table again. An hour ago it had Farmington at 0/10/11".

GYX was noting model flip-flops and potential huge impacts on qpf and p-type, starting before they posted the watch. Can't speak for other WSOs.

Houlton hammerer.

Tasty. And it's good to see a Maine poster from north of 45°. It's been a while since we've had anyone from the northeasterly 85% of the state..

Depends on the size of the wiggles. At times the models' wiggling resembles me trying to shoot - offhand without a rest - a deer facing me and 250 yards away. The crosshairs are on target about 5% of the time and right or left the other 95.

It will come back, and then go away again. Then . . .

Maybe for orographics, as seen near MWN (which had surprisingly little - 11.7" while Pinkham recorded 43") but not for temps/p-type, except in SE-most New England. NYC had 14" of 15:1 pow at mid-upper 20s. BOX and PVD each had 17" from 2.1" LE and temps 20s to low 30s, so probably some mixing there. BDL got 18.5" of 11:1 at low-mid 20s.

Sandy peaked at just above 17k cfs, Kennebec at Skowhegan near 46k. Augusta west side parking lots got their annual (or more) washing as the river got 2 ft above flood stage. Nothing serious.

And they will change, many times. Morning GFS op was east, a near whiff. Seems likely, as I had the snows put on the pickup this morning.

Close. BOX was 72 on 7/4 and 69 on Christmas eve. NYC recorded 72/63 that day; their average for 12/24 is 35° and that 32.5° positive departure is the greatest I've found for any individual day in their 150+ year POR.

Not quite as weird as the middle of my first December in Maine - 1973 - when we had RA and 56 in BGR while my parents in NNJ were 15 and IP. However, having a 7 AM temp that's slightly milder than the average low in late July is noteworthy.

Had 2.24" thru 7 this morning, maybe a tenth or 2 since. 1.20" came before my 9 PM obs time, bringing the November total to 4.97", AN by 0.65". OCT-NOV total is 10.27", which is 1/4" AN - the swamps are full. Still 4" BN for the year, but at 91% it's above the drought threshold (I think.) November numbers: Avg. Temp: 35.23 +1.92 Avg. Max: 45.40 +3.21 Avg. min: 25.07 +0.65 Warmest was 70 on the 10th, which just missed the month's warmest - 71 on 1/2003. However, the warm week produced 2 days at 69 and one at 67, which with the 70 rank 2-3-4-5 for month's warmest. Coldest was 7 on the 19th. The 4.97" included 3 days with 1"+, all on Mondays: 1.05 on the 16th, 1.54 on the 23rd and 1.20 yesterday (about half of what this current storm will bring.) Snowfall: 2.1" 2.8" BN. The 1.4" on 11/25 meant a white Thanksgiving but was gone 2 days later. October was 1.29° BN, and autumns with BN Oct and AN Nov lead to BN snow seasons on average, though the signal isn't strong. I am walking the Stowe Rec Path to pick up my SUV from the mechanic... in shorts and a hoodie on December 1st. I don't do shorts even in summer, but walked the dog at 7 with my usual jeans but only a T-shirt above the waist. Temp was 56 and my average morning on 12/1 is 19. The average minimum here peaks at 55° in July.

2.24" thru 7 this morning. Sandy River's right at flood stage (14k cfs at the Mercer gauge) and the Carrabassett was nearly 40% above flood flow. Minor flooding forecast at Skowhegan - flood threshold is 35k cfs and 40k is progged. Stein is soaking in the grave.

That storm had a 15-30 minute blast (different times at different locales) that caused almost all the damage, even though the (lesser) wind and rain lasted many times longer. I can't recall another synoptic event that had such a short and intense peak.

That October 2017 gale actually had thousands more CMP customers in the dark than peak 1998 (2008 was a Mass event), but duration of outages and damage to infrastructure was many times greater in the ice storm.

And points north. We had 24" of 14:1 pow with huge drifting, one of only 4 events reaching all blizzard criteria at my place. 2004 was my driest January though '13 and '14 had less snow thanks to cutters. On Jan. 14-15, 2004, Farmington co-op recorded highs of -8 and -6, tied for 3rd and 5th lowest maxima since 1893. (And it was windy enough to keep temps from dropping much in the overnights.)

Receivers don't drop too many (other than Edelman) but don't get much separation and Cam's accuracy isn't consistent enough to hit small windows. Jacobi has stepped up but he's a cromulent WR, not an all-pro. Pats are frustratingly inconsistent - last 3 weeks they beat 2 good teams and lose to a bad one. ESPN noted that yesterday's 179 yards total offense was 3rd lowest by the BB Pats. (In 331 games, if I've done the arithmetic right. And that doesn't include the PS.)