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Everything posted by tamarack
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Low in mid 50s here, probably quick heating of the drier air in store. At least the Sox combined a week's worth of stink in one game. After the 5th, I was rooting for a 35-run record.
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Wind is very good at picking out the weak trees, like that one with lots of rot at the base. -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Or maybe the "Rainbow Six" solution (for those who have read the Tom Clancy books.) -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
But IMO it's more often the run-of-the-mill wintry wx that cause the fatal crashes than the blockbusters loved by most on AMWX. -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Nice hyperbole! However, unless it's of Feb 1978 or March 1888 magnitude, damage/casualties from winter storms are low compared to hurricanes, tornados and severe TS (and big heat!). When it's puking snow, drivers slow down. When it's very light, they maintain speed and bad things become more likely. -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
It's like the Whites suck all the juice from convective systems. Later areas of bright echoes heading at divergent paths toward north and south of here. Really nice-looking line heading thru the St. John Valley, starting to bow. (When we lived there, we had fewer TS but more frequent SVR - counterintuitive.) -
May's highest: 90, on the 14th June's highest: 89, on the 26th July's highest: 86, on the 17th (so far) We've reached 90+ on 18 days here, including 7 during July-Sept 2002. Have not had a 90+ in those months since then, but have 7 such June days 2003 on and 2 in May, the first in 2017. As the forest fills in and grows taller after the previous owners' timber harvests of 1990 and 1994, it's been hard to record really high temps when the trees are fully at work.
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Made it through on dry ground. -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Watching that line as it approaches is like seeing the Rd Sea parting on "The Ten Commandments". A sprinkle might graze the tenpin here. Glad we got the RA Monday night. -
With a little RA to pump up the swampiness?
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Looks like a SNE/MA thing. Last time we had a good def band lasting more than one hour was Pi day 2017.
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About 4 years ago I was tasked to write an essay on global warming's possible effects on managing Maine's public reserved forests, the "descendants" of the original public lots designated when the northern/eastern townships were surveyed in the 19th century. As part of that I compared 21st century temp/snow to the long-term numbers for 3 sites: CAR to represent the North, Rangeley to represent the mountains, and Farmington to represent low elevation forests outside of the North. These facets cover about 98% of the acreage managed by my former employer. Four parameters were compared - total snowfall, days with 1"+ cover, minima zero or below (for freezing down winter logging roads) and maxima 32 or below (to keep them frozen). The temp numbers were limited to December thru March, the historical season for frozen-ground timber harvesting. (Note: Winter 21-22 has not been added. Snowfall for Farmington and Rangeley were well below average while at CAR snowfall was slightly AN.) Snowfall: Has increased 3-8% - for all 3 sites, average 6%. 1"+ cover: Has decreased 3-5% for CAR, Farmington; increased 4.5% at Rangeley. Avg down 1% Maximum 32 or lower: Down 1-4% (Rangeley least), average 3% Minimum zero or lower: Avg down 21%, CAR 18%, Rangeley 11%, Farmington 34% Start of records: CAR 1939, Rangeley 1961, Farmington 1893 but snow depth only since 1940.
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Radiated surprisingly well here. Today's launch point is almost 10° lower than yesterday's low of 66, though today starts drier so may heat faster. That 66 minimum is the first 60+ morning of the year. Only 2009, the summer of stratiform rains, had to wait longer, to 7/28, for a 60+.
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Glad to help. Probably too fine distinctions for a broad-based map, but there are some mesoscale differences: the NNE mountains seem to generate more TS than flatter regions, and the coastal areas east of Penobscot Bay are graveyards for convection. Small sample size, but I found it odd that my Fort Kent experience included fewer storms but more severe ones. The northern 25% of Maine seems to have more than its share of damaging storms. On September 30, 1986, straight-line winds caused a 600-acre blowdown which ended by toppling trees into Square Lake. The same townships (T16R6 and T16R5) had several blowdown patches, the largest 70 acres, in 2005. Six years later an EF-0 damaged buildings in the town of Eagle Lake then became straight-line winds that flattened about 200 acres near the north shore of Eagle Lake itself. 2012-13 saw EF-0/1s in Oxbow and near Long Lake (the Aroostook Long Lake) and destroyed several hundred acres in the northern part of Baxter Park. And of course, the biggest ones of all were near Katahdin during the 1970s. 12-15" of pasty November snow plus wind flattened about 3,000 acres south of the mountain in 1974 (and 3 years later fire burned most of that area of well-seasoned jackstraws.) Then in 1979 an October storm tipped over another 3,000 acres of spruce-fir a dozen or so miles NW of the 1974 event - from the air that later event looked like lodged oats after an August downpour. -
That would put NNE within reach of July 1911.
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
For the 3 places in Maine with more than 3 years record: Fort Kent: 9.8 yr, Avg 12.2/yr Most: 17, Least 6. Top month: July, 3.8. Least: Feb, Dec, zero Had 4 SVR (Hail/wind) and 2 near SVR Gardiner: 12.6 yr, Avg 13.0/yr Most: 22, Least 7. Top month: June, 3.3. Least: Jan, zero Maybe 2 near SVR (lightning/RA) as the strongest would miss. Tornado in the next town. New Sharon: 24.2 yr, avg 15.0/yr Most: 23, Least 8. Top month: July, 4.5. Least: Novie, zero. (July 2022, one so far, not included.) 2 near SVR (Wind/RA). Defoliating hail 8/30/07 only 6-8 miles to SE. We moved from Gardiner to New Sharon in mid-May 1998, and recorded thunder days in each place. Thus, May 1998 is counted as part of both places. My 3 years in BGR are omitted, both for small sample size and because of being away for much of summers 1974 (Forestry summer camp, 6 weeks) and 1975 (field research all summer). -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
On one of our visits to DEC (July 2011) we had grandstand seats for 15 minutes of perhaps 100/minute strikes, looked like all CG. The storm was 5+ miles to our south, and the thunder came as a drum roll rather than individual booms/rumbles. Even the local folks were impressed. We got our share 3-4 hours later, garden variety lightning but 3" RA in 2 hours. With tor warnings in SNH and S. Maine, still haven't heard if funnels reached the ground. -
40C in London is probably about the equivalent of 120F (at least) in OKC. Nice 1.32" drink for the garden. More just to my west but no complaints, here it was a farmer's RA, some moderate, even very short hveay, but no soil movement. The 2 cocorahs observers in the NW part of Farmington reported 2.56" and 2.36", and one town farther west (Temple) had 2.48". Those totals ranked 2/3/4 for the state, but #1 - 4.63" for Brighton Plantation (about 20 miles north of Skowhegan) looks suspicious, will probably get a QC contact. Next highest for Somerset County was 2.02" in North New Portland, and the reporting town nearest to Brighton, Harmony, had 1.48". GYX issued a tor warning for west/central York County (Cornish area) at 12:38 AM. Saw pics of damage in Standish, just to the east, but haven't seen reports of funnels on the ground.
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
IIRC, it was a week ago this past Friday when there was a watch extending from southern WVA to north of Moosehead Lake. We got 0.02" of sprinkles from that one. -
Low of 48 this AM, now approaching 80. My preferred summer wx, especially if precip is average or better. (Running about 50% since May 1, local river closer to record low than to the 25th quartile level.)
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A long-time silviculture professor (now retired) at U.Maine has said that up to 30% of white ash may be tolerant of EAB. (Having worked with this man starting in 1980 during his grad school days, I have much respect for his opinion, so I'm cautiously optimistic.) Others have noted that blue ash in the west also shows some tolerance. Green ash and brown (black) ash, not so fortunate - next to zero tolerance, if that much. In the upper Midwest and adjacent Canada, green ash is prevalent and most of it is dead. Brown ash is an integral part of the culture of Maine's (and Maritimes') indigenous populations. Probably no other people would be more impacted if EAB eliminated most/all of that species. Fortunately, Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) appears to have been controlled, so far. One hot spot was ORH, and the ALB damage (numerous holes 3/8" diameter or larger) significantly increased tree breaking from the 2008 ice storm. The global society has its downsides. However, I've not heard about any insects/diseases native only to the Americas that have caused serious problems across the ponds.
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If he could learn the playbook, he's HOF material. He looked as big as the monster roaming the NNJ community where I grew up.
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While portions of New England have experienced greater floods - VT in 11/27, western CT/MA in 8/55, central Maine in 4/87 - March 1936 is probably the most widespread major flood in the 6-state area's records.
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Depends on location, of course, and summer temp max is a plateau more than a peak. Current (and "live", so subject to added data) mean temps climbed above 65° on July 10th and drop below that mark after August 10. The peak wiggles under/over 66° during the final week of July. Edit: The much longer record of the Farmington co-op shows a peak on July 19, with means remaining within 1° from July 7 thru August 4. For the current norms, 1991-2020, warmth peaks on July 29, same as for my data 1998-on, and remains within 1° from July 10 thru August 11.
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Caught the fringe of a TS 3-3:15 this afternoon, much stronger to the south, was warned for S. Franklin and Kennebec Counties, heard reports of hail in Belgrade. My tenth inch beats none at all.