hazwoper

I need that warmup with rain all the way up into VT next Thursday to GTFO!! Heading to Okemo next Friday for a short weekend ski trip with my son.

roads were not at all good this am here in the burbs. super icing and not treated in many places.

28.6 with mix of SN and ZR

wow, I'm at 33.3 an well NW of you. DP 32.7 EDIT - your elevation is why. I am at 280 you're at 400

CONGRATS, Walt!

Yeah, I don’t expect any more than perhaps a few flurries later on.

passage of arctic front here

Arctic front on my doorstep. Pushing through Doylestown now based on radar and tempest network

The same goes with thinking a model showing warm and rain in the long term is correct. Again, it’s February and climo favors cold and snow.

He already did. It’s the beginning of February. All of the other stuff you posted, for the most part, is based on current modeling. Modeling, which I might add, has been dreadful.

Mt Holly morning AFD: As we go through Thursday night and Friday, the southeastward progression of the arctic front occurs and this will be key in the timing of the initial shallow cold air seeping eastward. A sharp temperature gradient will exist with this front, and at least a couple ripples of low pressure will be tracking along it. Along and north of the wave and west of the front, temperatures will drop rapidly supporting rain changing to freezing/frozen precipitation. The temperature drop could also start resulting in a rapid freeze-up across our western zones especially during the day. The model forecast soundings indicate the low levels quickly cool with a deep warm layer aloft gradually cooling with time. This points to a period of freezing rain then to sleet then to snow before ending. The guidance is trending faster with the colder air arriving, although the GFS still looks to be the coldest. We went ahead and sped up the colder air arriving and therefore a quicker changeover occurring. Some fog may occur for a time as the warmer air along with higher dew points move over especially lingering snowcover, although this may be limited due to the presence of a strong low- level jet. It looks like the guidance is coming into some better agreement, however there remains uncertainty regarding how quickly the low- level cold spreads southeastward during Friday. The greatest chance for a more prolonged period of freezing/frozen precipitation will be from the I-78 corridor northward. As are result, some accumulating ice is expected across these areas. Some snow/sleet accumulation is expected although the snow amounts look to be limited. This however will depend on how quickly the warm layer aloft erodes and how much moisture remains before ending. We continue to think this looks like an advisory level event for parts of our area, however amounts will depend on the cooling of the column and amount of precipitation falling after colder air arrives. There is an increasing chance now that the rain changes to some freezing rain, sleet and/or snow into the I-95 corridor and possibly to the coast before ending.

Mt Holly thoughts on ice through 7PM Friday

It starts off warm and gets colder. CAD is not at all in play here.

Initialized 02Z which means 9pm. So everything from 9pm forward so not earlier today.

This has happened many times before, and is welL modeled. It’s coming

what are we thinking for timeframe when things start top pick up and roads get bad. Have a HS ice hockey game at 7:45, and trying to decide if it should be played. I am thinking we should be fine......

No melt? My entire driveway has melted and was never treated. any dark surfaces should be all melting

I like where we sit here in extreme SEPA. Thinking 6-8" in my area with bust potential slightly favoring a bit more. We'll see how it shakes out.

I get it, but just post 10:1 with caveat the numbers are likely a bit higher.

Please stop with the Kuchera

What is falling right now, I will say, is definitely 15:1 ratio. No doubt

17 knots are 20 mph. And I believe that is sustained. Dude, you’re way over estimating. Funny also, that’s at the surface. Cmon man. I remember like it was yesterday and Ray would come in here at laugh at folks that thought we’d get 15-1. LOL

I think 12-1 is certainly a possibility. More in the beginning with less wind less during height

“If its windy, snowflakes can fracture, losing their "lacy" structure and leading to lower accumulations (lower snow ratios). Deep cold, in general, promotes higher snow ratios.” https://www.weather.gov/arx/why_snowratios

The wind will knock those back Ralph . Cmon, you know better