Jebman

Buda has fallen to 79/59 average highs/lows. However we are headed for summerlike 90s. Stout Mexican airmasses are controlling our weather and shall continue to do so in the coming months. It will also be very dry as well. Even if Buda's average highs/lows were to somehow fall to 29/9, it would still be much above normal down here. We're cursed. It will stay hot and unusually dry from now on. I think Central Texas will experience an unusual anomaly associated with this Nino. We will be well west of The Plume, and somehow also much warmer than usual throughout the Nino Event. Since the Base State will be much warmer in 2027, the Summer of 2027 will break hundreds of high temperature records in Texas. I now expect a very dry autumn and winter for Buda, as well as a very dry Spring in 2027, that will also be associated with much warmer temperatures right into Summer next year that shall be catastrophic for my part of the world. The southeast and Mid Atlantic will be troffy, very wet and Mid Atlantic will also experience snows associated with arctic air masses that time with prodigious moisture throughout the Nino Event. The unusual dryness in central Texas is something that I am beginning to refer to as the Jebman Curse. I think some passages in an ancient book may well be referring to me and this is the reason that as long as I live and breathe, Central Texas will be dry and run out of water and millions of people will transmigrate to greener pastures. As much as I deeply adore water floods, I shall never get to see one. Two events are happening right now in Central Texas, that shall continue well into 2027 and 2028: Rainy systems miss us for many reasons, and temperatures will be above normal and radically increase the drying of fuels, well into at least late 2027. The Winter of 2026-2027 will be one of the warmest ever experienced in Central Texas since records began to be kept down here. Expect a brand-new phenomenon: Wildfires covering large parts of Texas. This will be caused by extreme dryness, strong stout winds, and also an element of carelessness by people, such as throwing cigarettes out car windows. Some of these brobdingnagian wildfires will blow into parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. At times, Texas wildfires will approximate California wildfire season. The La Nina of late 2027 into 2028 possibly 2029, will bring extremely dry conditions to the entire Southland and record hellish heat, particularly in later summer 2027 and on into the very later 2020s, possibly into the early 2030s. We will also be beset by a hellishly hot new Base State, beginning in mid-2027. Noted meteorologists will publish papers about the incredible hot dry Anomaly in South Texas, and anthropologists will publish papers about how so many people decided to migrate from south Texas beginning about late 2027 because of how incredibly hot and dry the state has become. Many experts will wonder after the notable dryness in south Texas even during a strong El Nino and write up brilliant papers about it.

No doubt about it. Rain chances for next weekend just fell into death valley. Texas is well west of the Super Nino Moisture Plume. No rain for us throughout the Nino. Southeast will be Waterworld though. Worst drought in Texas history shall have taken place during one of the strongest El Ninos in all of recorded history. We do DRY like a BOSS.

There are going to be multiple instances where arctic air will time well with moisture and the Sub will get totally annihilated by snow. This is no ordinary Nino. Stock up on multiple Jebman Shovels, your favorite foods, metric tons of IPA's, plenty of beer, salt and even a snow blower or two.

What this means is: Mid Atlantic will see more cold air intrusions, some of which WILL time with immense moisture to produce HECS in DC; Texas will get chilly but end up dry as crud. What else is new. So, in summary----- EXCITING atypical Nino Winter in the Mid Atlantic which will have frequent Siberian intrusions, some resulting in major snows, flooding rains in the Southeast, and cool weather in the Southwest and mostly dry (Texas is well west of The Plume), and the Midwest will be drier than normal, milder than normal, West and Pac NW will be milder with some storminess and the SNE/NE may see a few Nor'easters.

Congrats everyone!

C'mon guys. Rain is hitting the DMV. I'd like to see some obs please We are gonna record the ENTIRE Super El Nino Moisture Plume and its historic effect on the DMV.

That radar is developing as it approaches the DMV. Elements are getting bigger and more expansive, and the green is deepening into yellow orange. There may even be outright REDS with time. It should be kept in mind that this is a tropical environment in which rain will be very, very efficient and will pile up quickly. The Mid Atlantic is also situated squarely within the Infamous Super El Nino Moisture Plume and will remain so well into next year and many many numerous rains will drastically pile up rainfall tallies into outright ridiculous territory over the next 8 months at least. I am also becoming very Jealous of all your rain and also of your plight of getting so damn much rain over the next 8 months!

That did it. That's what i'm gonna call my new Gen Alpha/Gen Z Band. Swooping Hodographs.

Silver lining was the storm moved so fast, many places probably ended up with half the forecasted rain.

This thing is moving its rain shield north so fast it is almost in south Virginia!

Plenty of rain coming for N VA and the DMV! Its truckin!

Check out Rogers Pass in Montana at 6700 feet. They might pile up about 33 inches of snow! https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=99&y=149&site=tfx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=98&map_y=149

This storm is moving pretty quickly - That may well be the saving grace for many areas with respect to rainfall tallies. The rain is already out of the coastal areas; this storm is now all about the inland regions. It's really truckin'! I think at 18 mph!

MAMMOTH ALERT !!!! ALEET ALEET! A potent cold front will slam into the Sierra Saturday possibly mixing with moisture from Rachel which could result in some wet snow Sunday into Monday in Mammoth and Palisades with some accumulating snow at elevations above 8000 feet. Uh-oh. What will super nino moisture do to the Sierra ski resorts at high elevations like 9000 feet this winter?

Got some watches in Virginia already Flood Watch National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-101000- /O.NEW.KRNK.FA.A.0009.261010T1500Z-261012T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd- Patrick- Including the cities of Whitetop, Dobson, Galax, Troutdale, Stuart, West Jefferson, Boone, Floyd, Wilkesboro, Sparta, Independence, and Volney 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of North Carolina, including the following areas, Alleghany NC, Ashe, Surry, Watauga and Wilkes and southwest Virginia, including the following areas, Carroll, Floyd, Grayson and Patrick. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Upslope rainfall from a rather strong southeasterly Low level jet from the remnants of Isaias will bring increased precipitation along the crest of the southern Blue Ridge from Floyd county extending southwestward towards Watauga county. Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with locally higher totals in the 5-6 range will be possible, especially for areas like Meadows of Dan, Boone, and Blowing Rock. These higher totals may lead to isolated instances of landslides along slopes that have been modified by humans like embankments or cut slopes. These areas may also see increased rises on local streamflows that may lead to flooding across low-water crossings. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ EB