Jebman

Congrats on the snow! Looking forward to your reports deeper on into this winter, should be a good one up in those parts.

Should be pretty good year for ya!

Dad and I watched it on tv back when it all happened. Damn I was really jonesing for snow because of it.

Now THIS, is SNOW FOOTBALL..... Looks like they were playing in at least 9 inches of snow... Need to watch it on YouTube but it's definitely worth a look...

This out of Des Moines AFD 393 FXUS63 KDMX 282347 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 547 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Prolonged snowfall through Saturday has begun in the west early this afternoon. Significant snowfall amounts of 8 to 12" are expected through Saturday evening, with some locally higher amounts possible. - Gusty winds behind the snowfall may lead to blowing and drifting of fresh snowpack on Saturday night. - Much colder temperatures move in on Sunday, with wind chills in the single digits above and below zero. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 The well-advertised winter storm for this weekend is now knocking on our doorstep early this afternoon. The responsible wave is now making it`s way over the Rockies, with surface low pressure building over the plains. Pressure gradients are tightening in response to this, increasing southerly flow and beginning to stream gulf moisture northward. Weak frontogenesis on the periphery of the building low pressure is currently producing radar returns (snow) over eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and up into the Dakotas where a lobe of better upper level moisture is also present. This precipitation is combating some drier air below and struggling to reach the ground, although surface observations and MPING reports are already beginning to report snow over the western portions of Iowa. As we progress through this afternoon, this precipitation aloft will slowly drift east and continue to saturate down through the dry layer beneath. At the same time, increasing low level moisture transport and theta-e advection will begin to lift northward ahead of the building surface low, giving this area of precipitation the extra push it needs to reach the surface. This will mark the beginning of our prolonged period of snowfall over the state. Precipitation coverage will initially be focused under this initial lobe of weak frontogenesis and theta-e advection. However, as the 500 mb wave continues toward the central CONUS, and deepens into a pronounced trough, the building surface low pressure will close off and lift toward the state. This will bring strong isentropic lift up into Iowa, causing the precipitation to expand over the entirety of the state throughout the day Saturday. Snowfall amounts have continued the upward trend this shift, now increasing southward and slightly eastward. The expectation is still that most of the area will see amounts in the 8 to 12" range, with a band of higher amounts up to 15". This heavier band likely won`t be widespread, but instead in the "Venn diagram" where the heavier snow from the theta-e wing tonight meets with the heaviest rates from the actual low pressure passage tomorrow. This area of higher (13"+) amounts varies somewhat from run-to-run and model-to-model, causing NBM to produce a fairly large area of 13"+ values in the forecast. Generally, the expectation is still for these higher amounts to be along interstate 80 and north, favoring the eastern portions of the forecast area. Of course, once you reach a certain point with snow amounts, it becomes more nitpicky than impact-driven. This prolonged snowfall is going to create travel impacts for most of the area on Saturday, whether your location ends up on the higher or lower end of that spread. Likewise, areas that only briefly cross through the heavier bands will still see periods of 1"/hr rates or higher, which will lead to visibility reductions. Farther south in the state, there is still some question on snowfall amounts as warmer surface temperatures attempt mix rain with the snow. However, with the slight southwestward trend in higher amounts, have seen an increase in forecasted snow totals over southwestern Iowa. For this reason, have upgraded a few counties in southwestern Iowa from the advisory to a winter storm warning. It`s still possible the warm air wins out in these areas, but model soundings indicate the surface warm layer will be extremely shallow and wetbulb temperatures only around 33 to 34 F at their warmest. It stands to reason that heavier rates will be able to overcome this shallow warm layer, and snow through it. Dynamic cooling of the layer may occur as well, as snow falls an melts (removing heat from the air) but southerly flow/warm air advection will work to negate this cooling. Given this delicate balance, this area definitely has the most uncertainty in snow amounts. In addition to this rain/snow mix, there may also be a brief period early Saturday morning where ice introduction is lost and freezing rain/drizzle develops. This seems to be a fleeting threat and significant accumulations aren`t expected. However, be on the lookout for isolated patches of ice in southwestern Iowa. The heaviest snowfall rates should be wrapping up around the early evening in our forecast area with lingering light snow lasting till about 10 pm to midnight. While the falling snow should be improving through this timeframe, there is a growing signal for wind gusts increasing to around 25 to 35 mph behind the cold front late Saturday afternoon and evening. These winds should primarily be displaced from the heavier snowfall rate that are associated with the warmer portion of the system, but a brief phasing of falling snow and increasing winds could lead to reduced visibilities into Saturday evening. Likewise, fresh snowpack/loose snow on the ground will be susceptible to blowing/drifting around. This blowing snow, in conjunction with snow still on the ground, will prolong travel impacts into Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Winds/gusts will then diminish through Sunday morning. High pressure and colder air fills in behind the system on Sunday, dropping temperatures over the area. Wind chills on Sunday morning will be near and below zero, making for quite chilly conditions for anyone getting up to move snow on Sunday morning. These cold temperatures and wind chills continue through the first part of the week, with highs on Sunday and Monday only reaching the upper teens to low 20s and overnight lows falling into the single digits Monday and Tuesday mornings. Wind chills through this same time will be quite cool in the single digits above and below zero. Of note, another system looks to clip the state on Monday into Tuesday, bringing additional snow chances to the area. Fortunately, amounts look marginal compared to this weekend`s system, with ensemble probabilities showing a roughly 50 to 60% chance for an inch or more of snow in southern Iowa and only a 30 to 40% chance for two inches or more. Additional details on the early week system will be provided in the coming days.

Might want to get a snow gun and make artificial snow while the getting's good!

Happy to report delightful refreshing dewpoints in the low 30s today, a delightful refreshing northerly breeze at 17mph and highs only around 60. It is so hard to believe after warm humid temps ever since late Feb. Tonight down to 38 with 30 dews. I might walk down Main St with only a soaking wet t-shirt on and swimming trunks at 3am! I might even sneak into the fish pond! Cool weather is SO INVIGORATING!

Winter IS coming.

Except for down in the deep southwest where I am, where we have consistently been 10-20 degrees above normal since Sept 1. We are sick and tired of all the warmth! I am already crying out for an ice age for 984 million years. But, Mid Atlantic will see numerous snowstorms this winter. Modeling is already hinting at it, and you guys will be staring at modeling then digging snow til your backs break.

Don't forget Lucy...

That happens I am flyin back to DCA just to see that once in a million year hyper blizzard!

Look guys, this post is not about the modeling BUT this IS the December Medium Long Range Discussion Thread. That's fine. I'm down with it. Let's do this. But, anyone take a look at the calendar lately? Its still November 23. Just sayin.

We ought to run a casino, over when Austin FINALLY EVER has a normal high temp of 65, if ever! I am willing to bet we never have highs here in the 50s, until December 2026! This is a massive Nina, and Texas is going to be boiling HOT all winter. It's obvious we are above normal all the time, with occasional 1-2 day cooldowns to 10 degrees above normal. This is concerning, because what it all means is a category 5 drought leading into Summer 2026 then super high temps appropriate to late stage global warming. We have had many overnight lows warmer than our normal average high temperatures. It is difficult to comprehend that our normal high temperature is now 65 degrees, and that our normal low is only 47. That sounds like New England weather, compared to what we have been dealing with since mid February this year. We'll have a semi permanent high pressure over the American Southwest from today well into most of 2026 maybe even 2027. This will mean that the Eastern Seaboard will be far colder than normal this winter and why many of our snowfall forecasts for Washington DC will turn out to be ridiculously conservative. We had a cold front last night. Yep. high was 76. We are always well above normal temperature wise, and extremely below normal rain wise. This is the hallmark of a Nina in the south and southwest. Better look out Eastern US. You are gonna freeze this winter amidst numerous blizzards!

Better call the Reaper, lol. He's almost had to tend to me, over lack of snow in the Sierra already this season. TWICE. Reaper's gonna be exhausted this winter.

I got the Cure for that. It can torch Nino all it wants then NIna to Eternity. All you need is a place called Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort or the Canadien Rockies at 16,000 feet in January. It would be -20 Fahrenheit, 175 mph winds and blinding snow and the skiing's great in the Canadien Rockies, real pow snow and no melting for 11.9 months out of the year. No one has to put up with global warming no longer, It will never be too warm for snow and winter in the Sierra, the Cascades or the Canadien Rockies or especially the Brooks Range in Alaska. You go high enough in the Rockies snow NEVER melts. I'm crazy as all hell but I still want an all-out Ice Age, with snow 13,000 feet deep, 100 mph winds and -100 degree cold. I am no better than I was in high school. The school board kicked my sorry ass out of Gar Field High in 1981. I just would not stop taking weather readings in class or drawing cross sections of cold fronts displacing hot air and changing rain to torrential snow. There was one particular incident in Mr. Levine's Earth Science class while I was in the 10th Grade where I was so obsessed with taking weather obs in class that I stuck my hand out the window to sling around a sling psychrometer. I was trying to get a wet bulb temperature reading, and I wanted to do this in class. It was Earth Science, after all. After that day EVERYONE called me Weatherman. I also got put on detention for disruption of class. In middle school and high school I was always in trouble for trying to take weather observations during class and simply going on and on about cold fronts changing rain to snow, drawing cross sections of weather fronts in class, and tending to walk around outside the school in the mornings just because it was cold and I loved it! In Gar-Field High I was consistently tardy to home room because I was out jebwalking in the cold weather in the morning. I knew that Main Office like the back of my hand, and everyone in there was sick and tired of The Weatherman. I am sick to death of summer in November in Texas. I am back to wishing for an all-out AMOC Shutdown and the return of an Ice Age Earth, associated with a PERMANENT GLACIAL maybe lasting a few hundred million years. We can always live in the deep underground military bases if need be. We can defeat the hybrid creatures that live in the deeper levels 4 miles down, They have a Mach 2 maglev transport system under there and it is global. I demand: snow 13,000 feet deep, minus 100 degree high temps, and constant blasting by severe gales and 200 story drifts in a milkshake-like environment. This was the way I expressed myslef in high school and it is no surprise I finally got my ass kicked right out of the public school system, in 1981 when I was in 11th Grade. They'd had enough. Well, I have had enough of summer in November. It'll be summer in Texas the next three months. I'm fed up. I want extreme cold deep ice and snow and watch everyone fall down and bust their tailbone! All while I happily blast Ken Carson at 200 decibels! This has been a classic Jebman Presentation, 2025 I'm Tired of Summer Edition. Carry on.