Jebman

It will only take one well-timed cold air mass amidst all that moisture = massive snowstorm. Strong Nino winters can offer up opportunities for substantial snows.

I was gonna say plenty of arctic air but near perfect track. DC scores a major winter storm with about a foot of snow. It might be a wetter snow but its snow. Even in a strong Nino winter.

I know that TSSN, but the southwest thread people are all laconic and don't care about rain. I actually do not belong in Texas. I belong in southeast DC. It's way too dry here. Meanwhile, in other news earlier today, I got stranded at a 7-11 for 90 minutes, because of heavy rain. I had to hide the car under a gas station roof because my roof leaks lol. Yeah, I got plenty of rain today lol. We got 2 inches of rain from this storm cycle. We are up to 40.4 inches of rain on the year. I STILL crave a 12 C El Nino and I still want so much rain that the 1626/967 Intersection in north Buda gets covered up with 45 feet of Plum Creek water and I get to jebwalk around the flood zone getting live water level readings ! "This is Jebman, reporting to you all LIVE, where we just got 27 inches of El Nino enhanced rain and we now have a catastrophic 230 year flood here in Buda, TX in which I have measured 45 feet of rushing water across the Rt 1626/Rt967 Intersection! The gas station has been completely washed away, even the foundations! We lost the entire shopping center too! I nearly got swept away because when I was getting my water level observations, there was a surge and I couldn't limp away fast enough. Thankfully one of my friends here managed to snag me inches from a sure death! This is a fun flood, but everyone needs to stay away from this intersection! Earth sides are still caving in. Huge construction equipment nearby has been swept down as well! Some of these are huge earthmovers. The new renovated Buda Sports Complex has been devastated. I am not even sure I can get back up the hill to where I live because the entire area is collapsing because of all the runoff lol. I'll get back to you all with more updates!"

Wow man precip is beginning to blossom all over south central Texas at 3am Texas time! It happened all of a sudden! There was this big yellow blob heading for Kyle then everything suddenly blossomed all over! BRING IT THE HELL ON, EL NINO! Woooooooooooo-----Hooooooooooooo !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not sure what's going on here in Buda, TX but this rain on the extreme back edge just keeps trying to backbuild. Light to moderate rain has started back up. Hmmmmm..... EDIT! OK, the rain is moving firmly east. The storm is over. Someone needs to get the Austin NWS off the crack-pipe and back to meteorology school because even I know this storm is OVER! The PWATS are down to 0.3, not 2.2, and the moisture is GONE already! This stuff is pure bullshyte! These Texas mets need to go back to school. I KNOW Buda weather. When the storm is over, the storm is OVER. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop tonight across the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. With the high PW airmass locally heavy rain will continue to be possible. I know where I live ---- One of the driest regions on the planet! I do NOT ever get my hopes up. No more rain for me tonight. Next rain chance is October 21. Till then warm and humid and superabundant sunshine!

The strong sunspots cycle will make the Strong Nino even more epic! In DC's case maybe a lot of moisture combining with an Arctic surge.

George BM, I'd like you to write us up a big rainmaker! Please. Only YOU know how to do this stuff well!

Yeah back edge and drastic drying taking place only 20 miles west of here. We typically get afternoon rains then clearing, then hazy hot and humid again tomorrow, even in October lol. Eked out about an inch. We got lucky, but many places 950 miles to the north got the jackpot with 8 inches of fresh rain. They are starting out the autumn right with torrential rain followed by a metric ton of El Nino aided snow. Forecasts claim 100 percent chance of rain in Austin tonight but I know that is nonsense. It's already drying out to the west and the system is speeding east like a runaway freight train. Maybe we'll get more rain later this month, maybe not. Just looked at my point and click. Don't particularly know what the Texan nws has been smoking lately, 100 percent rain tonight, 90 percent tomorrow? Naaaah. Hey Austin NWS office, gimme some of what you've been smoking! Damn that stuff must be epic!

It's hard to believe it's been raining all day lol. Backedge is roaring though. Should clear out in 3 hours. Nebraska got most of our moisture lol.

Glad your trip worked out, Mrs. J. The line of storms is starting to build just west of us; maybe we will get some rain after all.

Nebraska has managed to steal much of the moisture. Some communities up there have gotten 6-8 inches of south central Texan rainfall. Give us back our rightful rain. We want our rain back, NOW!

No doubt about it, now. Line is forming 20 miles west of Buda. Everything is forming then moving right along that line or wester. Bulverde and Bergheim just got blasted by yellow globs. I probably won't even see those hit me until very late tomorrow night and by then the whole moisture line will be racing for the Atlantic. But no rain tonight because I am on the WRONG side of the moisture axis means I get to do delivery! Stand by for another catastrophe in Kerrville with this system.

Hey George BM, In the October Edition wrote up a storm for us that absolutely obliterates Texas with feet of rain from a stalled out front then have that system move to the DMV and douse you guys with all that rain! RAIN is what everyone is crying out for.

I know without a doubt in my mind, that I will receive a quarter inch of rain in Buda thru October 12. Everytime forecasters go on and on about all the intricacies of this setup, like the 2 inch PWATs, I get next to nothing. 100 miles west of Buda will be obliterated by a foot of fresh rain. This is what always happens down here. THAT, is why we have a catastrophic drought and we will always have one, throughout this so-called strong El Nino. Sometimes I wish I were back in Washington DC. At least they get nice and 33 degree cold with rainstorm after rainstorm after gray bone chilling rainstorm after rainstorm with Ninos. We don't. We get sun, we get hot, we are dry as a proverbial popcorn fart and we always will be dry. They are already trimming amounts. They are already trimming the chance of precip per day. Here's the BAD news, this system will move super fast over Buda. That's why we will be extremely fortunate to pick up a quarter of an inch of rain. The more we get trimmed, the more we get denied. That's livin' in the Southwest and that's my neighborhood. Always short on rain, always long on hot as hell and dry. And windy too. Two reasons Buda does not get rain.... 1) I am CURSED for LIFE. All storms jump over us or evaporate. 2) Klingon Anti Rain Shield over my region. It deflects most rainstorms. My curse obliterates all the others the Shield missed.

Need to draw a line in south central Texas then write in a notation, "Jebman on the WRONG side of an agonizing rain cutoff line. Again. Countless times this winter. What else is new."