Jebman

Need to draw a line in south central Texas then write in a notation, "Jebman on the WRONG side of an agonizing rain cutoff line. Again. Countless times this winter. What else is new."

Severe torrential rains setup for south central Texas evolves, and it looks like poor I 35 where I live will get a few scraps, probably an inch, while just 5 miles west may get 8 to 12 inches and delightful destructive flooding with thousands of exciting water rescues will be ongoing probably only a few miles west of my back yard. I hate this solution, I see it a lot down here. Buda has a premium Ultra Klingon Rain Shield. It's all powered up and all ready to go! What else is new. I am pretty much cursed. Everywhere I go, severe killing drought occurs. Scary thought. I am assuredly on the WRONG SIDE of the cutoff, and make no mistake about it, this particular cutoff will be agonizing for many. We have a pretty serious drought and Buda will very likely miss out. I wish I was in India in that place that gets north of 1000 inches per year. I'd be in Heaven! But I'm not, I am in Buda and I will miss out. Again. If you live in Kerrville TX this would be a good time to clear out and take a vacation somewhere for 6 days. They will probably have another July 4 2025 again this week with another record flood crest raging down the valley carrying people, houses, trailers and entire communities far away downstream.

As with all things rain in south central Texas ---- By now I have learned to take these predictions with about 41,000 grains of Dead Sea salt. I've been here for 8 years. Rain related heartbreak is as common down here as soul-wrenching taxes. With that said...... ( https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 ) By Tuesday the upper level low will continue to push eastward towards the desert southwest thus shunting the subtropical ridge currently over our area and pushing it off to the east. As this happens lee side surface troughing east of the rockies will help to bring in stronger southeasterly winds at the surface. This in turn will help pull in more moisture up from the Gulf giving us a better shot at rain and storm chances during the day along with our typical seabreeze. For now have capped rain chances at 30 percent for areas mainly along and east of the I-35 Corridor. By Tuesday night we could start to see rain/storm chances increase as we begin to see the beginning effects of the upper level low over the desert southwest as it slowly deepens and progresses eastward towards the Southern Plains. Additionally, significant amounts of moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be pulled into our area in the upper levels along with lower level moisture being brought in from the Gulf. We could see PWATS approaching and even exceeding 2 inches. As such any storms that do form will be tropical in nature and capable of very heavy rainfall. WPC currently has Val Verde and parts of Edwards counties in a level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday with the risk shifting eastward and increasing further as we get beyond Tuesday night. More about that in the long term portion below. The advertised pattern change is on track for mid to late week with increased showers and thunderstorm chances beginning Wednesday and continuing through late week and beyond. An upper low will be located over the Four Corners region Wednesday, eventually moving east across the Central and Southern Plains late week bringing a Pacific cold front across our area. Abundant moisture will be available ahead of this system with some guidance showing PWATs around 200 percent above normal.

Arizona has enough water. AZ and NM stole all the rain from Odalys and Polo.

That's what I want. Hell, I want a 10 C Super Nino! Imagine all the rain!

You are getting to enjoy moisture not just from the remnants of Hurricane Polo, but also the remnants from Odalys! If only that could please move down here to Austin TX. We're parched and we're fading fast.

The great thing about excessive tides is the water gets pushed up the road drains! I love to watch that while blasting Playboi Carti and The Weeknd! You got to enjoy the sheer thrill of watching the water levels rise!

I am really frackin' JEALOUS! They get to have cool weather. They get the leaf colors, and they get to have all the fall rains!

You know what REALLY gets my goat? Four Corners gets to have life-threatening rains from Polo AND Odalys! Of course I don't get to have shyte. I get to have sunshine and more fookin' HOT WEATHER and I am sick of this nonsense! I am SICK OF IT! I'm SICK OF IT! I am SICK TO DEATH of no rain and hot! I want chilly and waterworld rains!

That rain is still Inbound from the northeast, DMV! It's not dyin out, it's getting bigger!

Don't look now, DMV but here comes yet another big rain blob from the Northeast! You guys are gonnabe piling up some fresh rain tallies!

Congrats on getting Polo's rain! Hey could you send a little of that rain down to south central Texas please?

40/70 REALLY gets deep into the analysis on his blog!

Congrats everyone! i see that big blob moved southwest!

I am fracking jealous of all that fresh life giving rain and strong chilly NE winds right off the Atlantic! Meanwhile I am fading fast from no rain and wall to wall sunshine and highs around 99 every day.