Jebman

Might want to get a snow gun and make artificial snow while the getting's good!

Happy to report delightful refreshing dewpoints in the low 30s today, a delightful refreshing northerly breeze at 17mph and highs only around 60. It is so hard to believe after warm humid temps ever since late Feb. Tonight down to 38 with 30 dews. I might walk down Main St with only a soaking wet t-shirt on and swimming trunks at 3am! I might even sneak into the fish pond! Cool weather is SO INVIGORATING!

Winter IS coming.

Except for down in the deep southwest where I am, where we have consistently been 10-20 degrees above normal since Sept 1. We are sick and tired of all the warmth! I am already crying out for an ice age for 984 million years. But, Mid Atlantic will see numerous snowstorms this winter. Modeling is already hinting at it, and you guys will be staring at modeling then digging snow til your backs break.

Don't forget Lucy...

That happens I am flyin back to DCA just to see that once in a million year hyper blizzard!

Look guys, this post is not about the modeling BUT this IS the December Medium Long Range Discussion Thread. That's fine. I'm down with it. Let's do this. But, anyone take a look at the calendar lately? Its still November 23. Just sayin.

We ought to run a casino, over when Austin FINALLY EVER has a normal high temp of 65, if ever! I am willing to bet we never have highs here in the 50s, until December 2026! This is a massive Nina, and Texas is going to be boiling HOT all winter. It's obvious we are above normal all the time, with occasional 1-2 day cooldowns to 10 degrees above normal. This is concerning, because what it all means is a category 5 drought leading into Summer 2026 then super high temps appropriate to late stage global warming. We have had many overnight lows warmer than our normal average high temperatures. It is difficult to comprehend that our normal high temperature is now 65 degrees, and that our normal low is only 47. That sounds like New England weather, compared to what we have been dealing with since mid February this year. We'll have a semi permanent high pressure over the American Southwest from today well into most of 2026 maybe even 2027. This will mean that the Eastern Seaboard will be far colder than normal this winter and why many of our snowfall forecasts for Washington DC will turn out to be ridiculously conservative. We had a cold front last night. Yep. high was 76. We are always well above normal temperature wise, and extremely below normal rain wise. This is the hallmark of a Nina in the south and southwest. Better look out Eastern US. You are gonna freeze this winter amidst numerous blizzards!

Better call the Reaper, lol. He's almost had to tend to me, over lack of snow in the Sierra already this season. TWICE. Reaper's gonna be exhausted this winter.

I got the Cure for that. It can torch Nino all it wants then NIna to Eternity. All you need is a place called Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort or the Canadien Rockies at 16,000 feet in January. It would be -20 Fahrenheit, 175 mph winds and blinding snow and the skiing's great in the Canadien Rockies, real pow snow and no melting for 11.9 months out of the year. No one has to put up with global warming no longer, It will never be too warm for snow and winter in the Sierra, the Cascades or the Canadien Rockies or especially the Brooks Range in Alaska. You go high enough in the Rockies snow NEVER melts. I'm crazy as all hell but I still want an all-out Ice Age, with snow 13,000 feet deep, 100 mph winds and -100 degree cold. I am no better than I was in high school. The school board kicked my sorry ass out of Gar Field High in 1981. I just would not stop taking weather readings in class or drawing cross sections of cold fronts displacing hot air and changing rain to torrential snow. There was one particular incident in Mr. Levine's Earth Science class while I was in the 10th Grade where I was so obsessed with taking weather obs in class that I stuck my hand out the window to sling around a sling psychrometer. I was trying to get a wet bulb temperature reading, and I wanted to do this in class. It was Earth Science, after all. After that day EVERYONE called me Weatherman. I also got put on detention for disruption of class. In middle school and high school I was always in trouble for trying to take weather observations during class and simply going on and on about cold fronts changing rain to snow, drawing cross sections of weather fronts in class, and tending to walk around outside the school in the mornings just because it was cold and I loved it! In Gar-Field High I was consistently tardy to home room because I was out jebwalking in the cold weather in the morning. I knew that Main Office like the back of my hand, and everyone in there was sick and tired of The Weatherman. I am sick to death of summer in November in Texas. I am back to wishing for an all-out AMOC Shutdown and the return of an Ice Age Earth, associated with a PERMANENT GLACIAL maybe lasting a few hundred million years. We can always live in the deep underground military bases if need be. We can defeat the hybrid creatures that live in the deeper levels 4 miles down, They have a Mach 2 maglev transport system under there and it is global. I demand: snow 13,000 feet deep, minus 100 degree high temps, and constant blasting by severe gales and 200 story drifts in a milkshake-like environment. This was the way I expressed myslef in high school and it is no surprise I finally got my ass kicked right out of the public school system, in 1981 when I was in 11th Grade. They'd had enough. Well, I have had enough of summer in November. It'll be summer in Texas the next three months. I'm fed up. I want extreme cold deep ice and snow and watch everyone fall down and bust their tailbone! All while I happily blast Ken Carson at 200 decibels! This has been a classic Jebman Presentation, 2025 I'm Tired of Summer Edition. Carry on.

Look, I KNOW I'm a damn broken record about this, but Mammoth's OPEN! You GOTTA see this! It`s Opening Weekend and the stoke is high!!!!! All the best snow in the whole world is waiting for you at Mammoth! It's only 3-4 hours away by plane! This is one of the BEST-EVER montages of all the FUN you WILL experience at Mammoth Ski Resort! https://www.mammothmountain.com/ Oh, and Palisades Tahoe is opening in only 4 days!!!

Eskimo Joe I have a special message board, ScienceWeather 2 which is a phpBB3 board, where I post special stuff. This definitely qualifies!

Mammoth is getting hit by even more snow - this was definitely NOT in the forecast tonight! They have 3-4 inches MORE fresh snow since 6pm and MORE on the way overnight! They just opened today! Even the Village level got hit! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village Woolly Lot needs a Plow!!!! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam That snow is blowing in the Lights at the Main Lodge! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

The Washington DC Metropolitan Region will get beneficial rains from the system that just missed us. You guys are downstream of us and will benefit from this weather system as it continues to develop as it translates E/NE with time. Another rainmaker will help Washington out right after that. Same reason come December/January/February you will see snows from the intersection of moisture contributions from Texas and the Gulf of Mexico and cold air. Our misses and failures will become YOUR BIG STORM DIRECT HITS ON YOUR ENTIRE SUB this entire winter! First beneficial rains, later translating into really good snows that will pile up and wear out your backs as you will be forced to dig snow after snow after snow!

Hays County where I reside, been dropped from the flood watch. It's done. We transition to the Pacific air mass with little to no rain as the central Texan Gobi Desert continues to develop unopposed by significant precip amid the Nina. I knew it all along. Texas is transitioning to a much drier climate even as millions of legal people rapidly move in as more and more businesses come to Austin. One day very soon, WATER will be nearly as expensive as GOLD down here. 1) Wells dry up. 2) No water at all. 3) Water has to be paid for and Austin is already using up the Colorado River so water will need to be piped in from the Pac Northwest. It's gonnabe PRICEY. 4) Wealthy folks will move out, to moister places like New Orleans. I'd love that place, rain all the time and one hell of a nightlife, I'd do things that'd make RavensRule blush with total embarrassment! I am most assuredly, NOT conservative no more! I am going to do stuff in late life that will make Solomon of old's late life look like one of Billy Graham's sons' dedication to g-d. EDIT: Keeping things 100 - yes we did get a brief shower, it did wet the pavement but will do nothing for our water needs or agriculture needs. We still have millions of legal people moving to central TX along with businesses and the wells will dry up then water will cost a sizable fraction of our annual income forcing people to leave for wetter climes. We have now been officially MISSED by this weather system. We will miss the next one in a couple days as well. We will be dry and desertification will continue apace in central TX. Winds are gusting to 15-25mph straight out of the north, Pac front hit us, some bit of rain is scudding by. This is just another day in the Gobi Desert of central Texas. Dry conditions continue apace. RAIN FUTILITY MARKERS 1) Rain delayed is rain denied or at least greatly reduced. 2) The Curly Pattern near Austin invalidates upper level low rains and Pacific frontal rains. 3) La Nina will keep Austin 15 degrees above normal and rainless for the most part. We have consistently been 15 degrees above normal with high temperatures. Last night the low was 73. Normal low is 48. NORMAL HIGH is 66 !!!! OUCH. This is becoming normal in autumn down here. 4) Differences between air masses temperatures and humidities mean absolutely NOTHING down here. Thermodynamics mean absolutely NOTHING down here. Forecasters routinely get humbled. If it were 95 degrees with 73 dews in Austin and a Polar front with 47/35 air hits us, it would get cold but rain would be minimal to none. Not sure why but this is our new normal down here. Upper level lows and fronts do next to nothing here besides changing the air mass. MORE WILL BE ADDED.