Jebman

MAMMOTH ALERT !!!! ALEET ALEET! A potent cold front will slam into the Sierra Saturday possibly mixing with moisture from Rachel which could result in some wet snow Sunday into Monday in Mammoth and Palisades with some accumulating snow at elevations above 8000 feet. Uh-oh. What will super nino moisture do to the Sierra ski resorts at high elevations like 9000 feet this winter?

Got some watches in Virginia already Flood Watch National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-101000- /O.NEW.KRNK.FA.A.0009.261010T1500Z-261012T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd- Patrick- Including the cities of Whitetop, Dobson, Galax, Troutdale, Stuart, West Jefferson, Boone, Floyd, Wilkesboro, Sparta, Independence, and Volney 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of North Carolina, including the following areas, Alleghany NC, Ashe, Surry, Watauga and Wilkes and southwest Virginia, including the following areas, Carroll, Floyd, Grayson and Patrick. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Upslope rainfall from a rather strong southeasterly Low level jet from the remnants of Isaias will bring increased precipitation along the crest of the southern Blue Ridge from Floyd county extending southwestward towards Watauga county. Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with locally higher totals in the 5-6 range will be possible, especially for areas like Meadows of Dan, Boone, and Blowing Rock. These higher totals may lead to isolated instances of landslides along slopes that have been modified by humans like embankments or cut slopes. These areas may also see increased rises on local streamflows that may lead to flooding across low-water crossings. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ EB

Congrats on more rain! Dale City tallies shall challenge then surpass our meager amounts, 40.7 for the year. Enjoy this autumn, winter and well on into late spring in 2027. Mid Atlantic is right in the Plume! So is Destin, FL, as they are most assuredly finding out right about now. Some Southeastern communities will eclipse 20 inches easy, especially with training tropical thunderstorms.

That's a good point, forky. I'd forgotten about the 30 years of warming on top of what is a very strong Nino event.

This is going to be a highly satisfying storm. It is still intensifying and might touch Cat 3. ANTECEDENT FRESHWATER: Soils are hypersaturated. They might get to see 15 additional inches of rain Winds felling trees: Ground is saturated. It won't take much wind to topple every last tree in that saturated soil. Look out houses, buildings, cars and people trying to jebwalk in this thing. Gulf of Mexico Bathymetry: Shape of the bottom will enable the storm to push a lot of ocean up onto the low lying coast resulting in incredible storm surge! People will get to watch that water go up, even gushing UP through drains! There is a possibility of more rain than expected with this. The moisture will have nowhere to go thanks to a blocking high over the Mid Atlantic. South Georgia, West Florida SE Alabama are all under the gun with this system! APPLICATION: Very exciting storm, satisfying rain amounts, strong winds and lots of falling trees along with storm surge flooding and freshwater flooding exacerbated, thanks to saturated grounds because of antecedent heavy rains before this storm. I fervently wish I was down there in the worst hit regions, I'd be blasting Daddy Yankee tracks and dancing like Smeagle in Lord of the Rings!

Surprise surprise. Isaiah remnants will dump close to two feet of fresh rain on Florida Alabama and Georgia. That region folks, is SMACK DAB in the midst of the Infamous Super Nino Plume. This, is only The Beginning for the Southeast, right thru June 2027. If you live in a low lying community, write it off right now. Those places won't dry off until late next summer.

Watch out Gulf Coast! Another tropical system will impact somewhere between New Orleans and Pensacola on Oct 10 with 7 to 12 inches of rain! Welcome to a strong Nino! It's going to be heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain in the Southeast for at least the next 8 months. Soils will become hypersaturated then floods will occur and not have time to recede. Entire neighborhoods will be inundated and stay that way well into 2027. The Southeast is going to be particularly hard-hit by way too much rain and flooding will persist.

GREAT! Headin' right back to another Royal Caribbean ship for a vacay.

WHOA you guys have 45 degree dewpoints and dropped to 48 degrees last night in Dale City?! Congrats!

Central Gulf Coast is getting more rain. These communities usually pick up lots and lots and lots and lots of rain every year. They ARE right on the Gulf Coast, after all. But this autumn/winter/spring 2027 you can multiply that by at least 10. Hope they love living underwater, because that's going to happen. Then a Campeche tropical feature may hit Texas in a few days. It's starting. Very Strong El Nino is now interacting with the 500 millibar pressure surface over North America and the United States. I hope south central Texas gets utterly obliterated by rain. I am dyin to see water come UP thru drains because of flooding.

Really sorry about your loss. My condolences to you. This reminds me of when my Dad passed away in 2018.

It will only take one well-timed cold air mass amidst all that moisture = massive snowstorm. Strong Nino winters can offer up opportunities for substantial snows.

I was gonna say plenty of arctic air but near perfect track. DC scores a major winter storm with about a foot of snow. It might be a wetter snow but its snow. Even in a strong Nino winter.

I know that TSSN, but the southwest thread people are all laconic and don't care about rain. I actually do not belong in Texas. I belong in southeast DC. It's way too dry here. Meanwhile, in other news earlier today, I got stranded at a 7-11 for 90 minutes, because of heavy rain. I had to hide the car under a gas station roof because my roof leaks lol. Yeah, I got plenty of rain today lol. We got 2 inches of rain from this storm cycle. We are up to 40.4 inches of rain on the year. I STILL crave a 12 C El Nino and I still want so much rain that the 1626/967 Intersection in north Buda gets covered up with 45 feet of Plum Creek water and I get to jebwalk around the flood zone getting live water level readings ! "This is Jebman, reporting to you all LIVE, where we just got 27 inches of El Nino enhanced rain and we now have a catastrophic 230 year flood here in Buda, TX in which I have measured 45 feet of rushing water across the Rt 1626/Rt967 Intersection! The gas station has been completely washed away, even the foundations! We lost the entire shopping center too! I nearly got swept away because when I was getting my water level observations, there was a surge and I couldn't limp away fast enough. Thankfully one of my friends here managed to snag me inches from a sure death! This is a fun flood, but everyone needs to stay away from this intersection! Earth sides are still caving in. Huge construction equipment nearby has been swept down as well! Some of these are huge earthmovers. The new renovated Buda Sports Complex has been devastated. I am not even sure I can get back up the hill to where I live because the entire area is collapsing because of all the runoff lol. I'll get back to you all with more updates!"

Wow man precip is beginning to blossom all over south central Texas at 3am Texas time! It happened all of a sudden! There was this big yellow blob heading for Kyle then everything suddenly blossomed all over! BRING IT THE HELL ON, EL NINO! Woooooooooooo-----Hooooooooooooo !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!