Jebman

With that many Tambora-level eruptions, weather enthusiasts in the Megalopolitan Eastern US Corridor in the 2050s should enjoy massive frigid outbreaks and record blizzards in the NDJFMA timeframes many of those winters!

Knew this was gonnabe happening: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1253 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 TXZ171>173-183>193-202>208-217>223-228-141000- /O.NEW.KEWX.XH.W.0001.250514T1800Z-250515T0200Z/ /O.EXT.KEWX.HT.Y.0001.250513T1800Z-250514T1800Z/ Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina- Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Maverick-Zavala-Frio-Atascosa- Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-Dimmit- Including the cities of Boerne, Bastrop, Georgetown, Uvalde, Leakey, Fredericksburg, Hondo, Pearsall, Lockhart, Del Rio, Floresville, Eagle Pass, Gonzales, Burnet, Brackettville, San Antonio, Rocksprings, Kerrville, Blanco, Crystal City, Austin, Seguin, Bandera, New Braunfels, Carrizo Springs, Llano, San Marcos, Karnes City, and Pleasanton 1253 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025 ...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY... ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...For the Heat Advisory, air temperatures near 104 degrees, except near 110 along the Rio Grande. For the Extreme Heat Warning, dangerously hot conditions with air temperatures of 105 to 108 degrees, with near 115 degrees along the Rio Grande. * WHERE...A portion of south central Texas. * WHEN...For the Heat Advisory, until 1 PM CDT Wednesday. For the Extreme Heat Warning, from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events. Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. Meanwhile in other news...... Mid Atlantic is getting badly needed beneficial rains, to the tune of 2-4 inches. Some communities, especially in the mountains, could see 4-8 inches of rain. Enjoy the cooling rains, Mid Atlantic. You deserve good water table replenishment. Stay safe as always.

Mountains are gonna get NAM'MED with 12-13 inches of rain. Man, if THAT were all snow in January.........

If this were gonnabe snow, and you had very cold ground, you would be under some SERIOUS Winter Storm Warnings that would encompass most of the Mid Atlantic Region! You would be looking at at LEAST two feet of snow, perhaps three feet with lollies to four feet. You wouldn't even need MillvilleWx to write up the KLWX AFD's. George BM and I would do this puppy full justice. It would be one heck of a BONANZA for snow enthusiasts, most snow weenies would be flying all over. Many would be up for days and days and days tracking every evolution of the models. I'd be GLUED to this sub.

Man I love it so much when pro forecasters talk dirty like this: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The upper low that will impact the region over the next few days will start to shear out into an open wave as it lifts northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday toward the Northeastern states by Thursday. As this occurs, we should start to see a few more breaks in the cloud cover, and as a result, should heat a little better during the day. High temperatures are expected to reach into the 70s on Wednesday, and then upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms appear possible either afternoon, with the highest coverage expected Wednesday afternoon beneath the upper low. Model soundings show mostly saturated profiles, along with some limited instability (around 500-1500 J/kg) and relatively weak flow through the depth of the troposphere. As a result, slow moving, heavy rain producing thunderstorms appear possible. While there likely won`t be any synoptic scale boundaries to focus regeneration of storms in any one given location, the slow storm motions and heavy rainfall rates may be enough to cause localized instances of flooding on the heels of heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday. Areal coverage of storms should be a bit lower, and storm motions should be a bit faster on Thursday. When coupled with slightly drier vertical profiles, this should lead to a lesser threat for flooding on Thursday. As we move toward the end of the week, a deep upper low and attendant strong surface low will slowly track eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will be drawn north and east from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic. Simultaneously, a strong belt of mid-level flow (35-50 knots in the 700-500 hPa layer) will spread overtop that rich low- level moisture, advecting a remnant elevated mixed layer plume eastward as it does so. Rich low-level moisture, steeper than climatology mid-level lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow will result in an environment on Friday, and potentially even Saturday as well, characterized by both strong instability and strong deep layer shear. The EPS and GEPS ensemble means have 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE along with 35-50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. The GEFS show lesser instability and similar shear values, but have a well-know low bias when it comes to instability. This type of parameter space raises concerns for severe thunderstorms. While the parameter space being advertised at the moment by models is toward the higher end of what we typically see in this part of the country, we`re still at day 6 and 7, and there is plenty of time for things to change, especially when an upper level low is involved (which models notoriously struggle with in the long range). With an elevated mixed layer involved, there are also signs of stronger capping than we typically see, so that could complicate things as well. For now, the end of the week is a period to monitor for potential severe thunderstorms, with the expectation that forecast can and will change this far out.

Look guys I know this has nothing to do with this discussion, and I really hope you all over there get a lot of beneficial rain while staying safe, especially in the orographic portion of the sub. I need to know what kind of ENSO state we had in 2011, especially if it was negative-neutral, like we are having now. Thanks. Enjoy all the cool rain!!!

When this heat wave gets done with us by May 25th, all of central TX will be a burned out husk. I have a question for the pro Mets on here? Was 2011 Summer a NEG NEUTRAL ENSO? In 2011 entire forests burned in central Texas. It was like California in fire season. Because if it was, then this summer in Texas will be an INFERNO for sure. And, been real nice knowin' y'all.

I hope you get lots of rain and stay safe, and that the Caps win BIG!

George BM, I really LOVE your professional weather forecasts. It's hard to believe you aren't working alongside Millville Wx these days. They could sure use your expertise! I enjoy your enthusiasm for severe winter and spring weather systems! NO ONE writes these AFDs up like you do! Many times I read your updates at the beginnings of the month then happily enjoy the day! Your enthusiasm reminds me of myself about 25 years ago when I still took ridiculous long jebwalks and craved 10 inch an hour snows in Dale City. Your SIG is just hilarious! 80-100kt effective bulk shear That sounds pretty bad.

I hope you guys get some rain with this.

After awhile of living down here in the desertification district of Texas, you catch on. Reportedly decillions of long metric tons of rain are on their way today, tonight and early tomorrow. I believe it. But those green flood watches. They are 170 miles NORTH of us. You live down here long enough, you learn. We are shyte out of luck - AGAIN. We'll see drizzle, and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours and hours of light mist and light drizzle. The 9 billion year rains are bubbling up all around Buda, but rest assured 99.9999999999999999 percent of the rain will - you guessed it - waterboard Dallas and points north and east. This includes Washington DC. Some communities in Dallas have already gotten 23 plus this year and are on track for a 60 inch rain year easy. NOT US. NO WAY. Not even in 1 million years. Not even one season like that. Rain hates me and rain absolutely abhors Buda. Some horrible pos has erected a permanent Klingon Anti Rain Shield around north Hays County. We are shyte out of luck. We'll have category 987 -level Drought by September, and cracks in that ground so wide, I will fall in AGAIN and really shatter my left knee this time! The Austin Metropolitan Region is out of luck for the foreseeable future, probably well into the 2030s. We are so up shyts creek, that Texas could get a Cat 5 hurricane. We'd get the 190 mph winds, the tornadoes and the damage. We'd get probably half an inch of rain, while Dallas would get about 14 feet of rain and the Trinity River would get so high it would drown south Oklahoma. I would sell everyone out, for a chance to live in Cherrapunji, India. They get ~1050 inches a year, every year.

I fervently hope you guys get happily buried ALIVE in powder snow soon!

George BM I absolutely love your idea of severe weather! I really enjoyed this. Forecast Discussion SAT 31 MAY 2025 655pm EDT One of our senior forecasters, GBM, who has been with NWS for nearly twenty years, recently referred to our ongoing destructive wet weather this past month here in the greater Washington Metropolitan Region. Some communities have experienced upwards of 2 FEET of rainfall. We are not certain how this has happened, but Barry has explosively deepened into a strong Category Five hurricane with 195 mph winds. FL winds were reported by hurricane hunters, when converted to mph, as 237 miles per hour. This is a very serious situation. Barry has been buffeting the coastal Carolinas for the past two days as it moves slowly north. Modeling has indicated that the storm will interact with a trough which will pull Barry into the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay then catastrophically slow down in the Bay, possibly for 12 to 24 hours. Barry will probably cause generational impacts over the eastern Carolinas and Virginia over the upcoming 24 to 48 hours. Catastrophic Category Five wind gusts, extreme storm surge up the Bay, unbelievably strong battering waves on top of the surge as well as unprecedented amounts of rain will impact the entire region. Twenty to thirty feet of surge up the Bay with fifteen to twenty foot waves on top of the storm surge will produce extreme damage and severe beach erosion. Rain will be torrential, with rates of 2 to 4 inches at times within the stronger rainbands. Barry is a slow moving storm and is expected to possibly stall in the Bay. Evacuations are underway in Eastern Virginia. Everyone except for essential personnel are urged to leave the coastline and move as far inland as possible. It's not just extreme surge and waves and extremely high winds and freshwater flooding that are concerns with Hurricane Barry. It's tornadoes as well. Numerous tornadoes are expected over the Carolinas and Virginia. Barry will push prodigious amounts of tropical moisture up against the Appalachian Cordillera resulting in catastrophic orographic rains. These rain tallies could very well be in excess of 50 inches in some communities. This would make the recent flooding in Asheville, NC seem like a pleasant afternoon in Central Park, especially when you take the extremely wet antecedent hydrology into account. GET OUT NOW. MOVE HUNDREDS OF MILES WEST. This storm will result in totally uninhabitable conditions for many weeks, perhaps months. Further updates will be issued.

Dallas and Oklahoma are just PILING up relentless rain tallies. Austin, high and dry. True we sure don't need to worry about freezing cold weather anymore! We got our southeasterlies off the Gulf of America! I love low 70s dewpoints so much I drive with my windows down all the time! Nice moist refreshing dewpoints! But water - thats a completely different matter. It is likely to be dry well into 2029. Negative Neutral ENSO is extremely BAD for south central Texas, we could have record breaking, diaspora-provoking drought well into at least 2026, probably for several years and we are already in deep trouble water wise with record breaking numbers of Americans flooding into Texas and Austin because of the record breaking Jobs Market down here! Won't be long before WATER is Gold Bullion down here and we are trading in Hydro. In other news ------ Look out Mid Atlantic, Neutral Negative ENSO means you better stock up and get shovels and snowblowers. Washington DC will become the new Upstate Maine this upcoming winter - Freezing cold and frequent blizzards and people fighting over parking spaces and sick to death of shoveling snow every 5 days! I know this is way too early but these are the Jebman's Prognostications, early calls on snow: DCA, 70 percent above normal. Dallas, 100 percent above normal. Mappyland and PSU lands, running about 150 percent above normal snow, maybe higher. Will be refining these as the summer then fall arrives. You guys are gonna get to enjoy another good winter.

You guys are nearly 17-20 degrees above average. You will get a lot of rain soon, too, rain that will entirely miss us. Boston's normal temps are 55/41. You know what they hit today? 84/57!!!!! With a 60 dewpoint! THIRTY DEGREES above normal! This is going to be a record hot summer and year overall. Texas is in exceptional drought already. It's going to be BAD, but not for the Mid Atlantic. You guys will be normal hot, with good rains. You may even get above normal rain for the summer, followed by several hurricanes smashing into the Ches Bay, George BM-style, and some TC's will have torrential rains that will repeatedly demolish your back yards this fall. Strap yourslefs in tight! Gonna be livin' in Interesting Times over there! Don't even get me started about the 2025-2026 Winter. Lots precip, lots cold. Buy shovels, blowers, salt. It's gonnabe a good one!