Jebman

This would have been a great time for a Charles Town trip. Win big and score big!

I'll never forget when you went to Donners Pass and experienced the Reality of eleven feet of fresh snow! You got to watch the entire event, too!

Well I must admit that down here in south central Texas, I am indeed experiencing very refreshing breezes with mid 40s ambient temps and gusts out of the North to 32 mph. We got the cold front last night and I was so damned excited, just like back in the 10th Grade, that I snuck out on Main Street at 3am in a soaked t-shirt and swimming trunks. I am VERY glad I did not see any cops. They'd have locked me right up. Took a short ceremonial jebwalk. It has been so damn HOT down here. It was 48 at the time amidst northerly winds to 47 mph. No one was around. Sane people were in bed with twenty blankets on. Not the Jebman. I LOVE winter breezes! I got my fix and no one saw me.

Congrats on the snow! Looking forward to your reports deeper on into this winter, should be a good one up in those parts.

Should be pretty good year for ya!

Dad and I watched it on tv back when it all happened. Damn I was really jonesing for snow because of it.

Now THIS, is SNOW FOOTBALL..... Looks like they were playing in at least 9 inches of snow... Need to watch it on YouTube but it's definitely worth a look...

This out of Des Moines AFD 393 FXUS63 KDMX 282347 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 547 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Prolonged snowfall through Saturday has begun in the west early this afternoon. Significant snowfall amounts of 8 to 12" are expected through Saturday evening, with some locally higher amounts possible. - Gusty winds behind the snowfall may lead to blowing and drifting of fresh snowpack on Saturday night. - Much colder temperatures move in on Sunday, with wind chills in the single digits above and below zero. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 The well-advertised winter storm for this weekend is now knocking on our doorstep early this afternoon. The responsible wave is now making it`s way over the Rockies, with surface low pressure building over the plains. Pressure gradients are tightening in response to this, increasing southerly flow and beginning to stream gulf moisture northward. Weak frontogenesis on the periphery of the building low pressure is currently producing radar returns (snow) over eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and up into the Dakotas where a lobe of better upper level moisture is also present. This precipitation is combating some drier air below and struggling to reach the ground, although surface observations and MPING reports are already beginning to report snow over the western portions of Iowa. As we progress through this afternoon, this precipitation aloft will slowly drift east and continue to saturate down through the dry layer beneath. At the same time, increasing low level moisture transport and theta-e advection will begin to lift northward ahead of the building surface low, giving this area of precipitation the extra push it needs to reach the surface. This will mark the beginning of our prolonged period of snowfall over the state. Precipitation coverage will initially be focused under this initial lobe of weak frontogenesis and theta-e advection. However, as the 500 mb wave continues toward the central CONUS, and deepens into a pronounced trough, the building surface low pressure will close off and lift toward the state. This will bring strong isentropic lift up into Iowa, causing the precipitation to expand over the entirety of the state throughout the day Saturday. Snowfall amounts have continued the upward trend this shift, now increasing southward and slightly eastward. The expectation is still that most of the area will see amounts in the 8 to 12" range, with a band of higher amounts up to 15". This heavier band likely won`t be widespread, but instead in the "Venn diagram" where the heavier snow from the theta-e wing tonight meets with the heaviest rates from the actual low pressure passage tomorrow. This area of higher (13"+) amounts varies somewhat from run-to-run and model-to-model, causing NBM to produce a fairly large area of 13"+ values in the forecast. Generally, the expectation is still for these higher amounts to be along interstate 80 and north, favoring the eastern portions of the forecast area. Of course, once you reach a certain point with snow amounts, it becomes more nitpicky than impact-driven. This prolonged snowfall is going to create travel impacts for most of the area on Saturday, whether your location ends up on the higher or lower end of that spread. Likewise, areas that only briefly cross through the heavier bands will still see periods of 1"/hr rates or higher, which will lead to visibility reductions. Farther south in the state, there is still some question on snowfall amounts as warmer surface temperatures attempt mix rain with the snow. However, with the slight southwestward trend in higher amounts, have seen an increase in forecasted snow totals over southwestern Iowa. For this reason, have upgraded a few counties in southwestern Iowa from the advisory to a winter storm warning. It`s still possible the warm air wins out in these areas, but model soundings indicate the surface warm layer will be extremely shallow and wetbulb temperatures only around 33 to 34 F at their warmest. It stands to reason that heavier rates will be able to overcome this shallow warm layer, and snow through it. Dynamic cooling of the layer may occur as well, as snow falls an melts (removing heat from the air) but southerly flow/warm air advection will work to negate this cooling. Given this delicate balance, this area definitely has the most uncertainty in snow amounts. In addition to this rain/snow mix, there may also be a brief period early Saturday morning where ice introduction is lost and freezing rain/drizzle develops. This seems to be a fleeting threat and significant accumulations aren`t expected. However, be on the lookout for isolated patches of ice in southwestern Iowa. The heaviest snowfall rates should be wrapping up around the early evening in our forecast area with lingering light snow lasting till about 10 pm to midnight. While the falling snow should be improving through this timeframe, there is a growing signal for wind gusts increasing to around 25 to 35 mph behind the cold front late Saturday afternoon and evening. These winds should primarily be displaced from the heavier snowfall rate that are associated with the warmer portion of the system, but a brief phasing of falling snow and increasing winds could lead to reduced visibilities into Saturday evening. Likewise, fresh snowpack/loose snow on the ground will be susceptible to blowing/drifting around. This blowing snow, in conjunction with snow still on the ground, will prolong travel impacts into Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Winds/gusts will then diminish through Sunday morning. High pressure and colder air fills in behind the system on Sunday, dropping temperatures over the area. Wind chills on Sunday morning will be near and below zero, making for quite chilly conditions for anyone getting up to move snow on Sunday morning. These cold temperatures and wind chills continue through the first part of the week, with highs on Sunday and Monday only reaching the upper teens to low 20s and overnight lows falling into the single digits Monday and Tuesday mornings. Wind chills through this same time will be quite cool in the single digits above and below zero. Of note, another system looks to clip the state on Monday into Tuesday, bringing additional snow chances to the area. Fortunately, amounts look marginal compared to this weekend`s system, with ensemble probabilities showing a roughly 50 to 60% chance for an inch or more of snow in southern Iowa and only a 30 to 40% chance for two inches or more. Additional details on the early week system will be provided in the coming days.

Might want to get a snow gun and make artificial snow while the getting's good!

Happy to report delightful refreshing dewpoints in the low 30s today, a delightful refreshing northerly breeze at 17mph and highs only around 60. It is so hard to believe after warm humid temps ever since late Feb. Tonight down to 38 with 30 dews. I might walk down Main St with only a soaking wet t-shirt on and swimming trunks at 3am! I might even sneak into the fish pond! Cool weather is SO INVIGORATING!

Winter IS coming.

Except for down in the deep southwest where I am, where we have consistently been 10-20 degrees above normal since Sept 1. We are sick and tired of all the warmth! I am already crying out for an ice age for 984 million years. But, Mid Atlantic will see numerous snowstorms this winter. Modeling is already hinting at it, and you guys will be staring at modeling then digging snow til your backs break.

Don't forget Lucy...

That happens I am flyin back to DCA just to see that once in a million year hyper blizzard!

Look guys, this post is not about the modeling BUT this IS the December Medium Long Range Discussion Thread. That's fine. I'm down with it. Let's do this. But, anyone take a look at the calendar lately? Its still November 23. Just sayin.