MANDA

Some good model agreement overnight for some much needed rainfall for most of this forum. Best amounts 1"+ look to focus over NNJ. Period of interest from late afternoon into this evening and then again Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Best chances we've seen this close to "show time" in quite a while.

Latest 5 day QPF from HPC. We can only hope. This has been trending upwards over last several releases. It is on the upper end of most guidance so they are aiming high. I'd take half this and be happy.

Here are the most recent (today) maps for NJ and NY

I agree. Something to hope for but based upon how the current Ohio Valley / Eastern trof evolved and played out with hefty rain totals forecast and we literally received nothing I don't put much faith in these longer range projections at this time. Nice to see it on a map, it does offer hope just not something I place high confidence in at this juncture. IF the forecast pattern is real it would tend to open the door to some east coast tropical activity but we're a ways off from seeing how this actually evolves.

It only takes one to make it a memorable season but having a hard time seeing the lofty number of named storms at this point. Would need to be a non stop naming frenzy for September and October to get there. The 1992 season would have been a total late starting dud were it not for one storm - Andrew. Which oddly enough was classified as a TD on 8/16 - yesterday back in 1992. It did pretty much nothing for a week or so before busting through the TUTT and then going to town. Just entering the peak season now but off to a very slow start and we might make it though to CLOSE to the end of the month without a named system.

Out working in the yard today and the topsoil is dust. Just terrible.

It was an extremely wet season last year and that is what made the rains from Ida so much worse. Not that it wouldn't have been a terrible situation without the antecedent wet conditions but when you add the wet summer to rains from Ida it was beyond historic for most of NJ. My total here for July, August, September and October was 34.20"!

Since 7/1 = 2.75". Last 60 days = 3.64". Last 30 days = 1.94". Not nearly as bad as some locations. Got lucky with some T-Storms during second half of July. Take those two days out of the mix and you can knock 1.43" off of all those totals.

No joke that is for sure. We COULD go another 10 days with 1/4" to 1/2" rainfall from New Jersey, LI and up into NYS and New England, at least the majority of places could. Not good. NJ could be going to Drought Emergency by end of the month if we don't get some needed rainfall. The Mon - Wed event will depend on how trof and upper level low evolve so still some time to salvage something but from this vantage point not looking promising. We'll see.

ICON FWIW is very close to CMC. Don't like having the GFS as my only rainy solution even if 3 - 4 days out. We'll see what EURO does but my suspicion is that it will lie closer to the ICON and CMC.

Another solution and likely not the final one. This is going to bounce around before models settle in on something close to reality. If this were the final solution the drought situation for NNJ into southern New England would continue to worsen.

Was issued at 12Z. New map will be out shortly. Can almost guarantee it will be reduced based on 12Z guidance...pending EURO.

Good advice. 12Z data so far shows no consistency. GFS/GGEM are night and day different and even the GFS is modest in total qpf through next THURSDAY. This pattern needs to setup just right or forget drought busting rains. Sensitive setup and cutoff needs to be positioned correctly...much like a winter setup.

Latest Drought Monitor just released. Expansion and addition of categories. Severe Drought conditions now showing up for parts of this forum. Eastern New England really taking it on the chin with rather large area of Extreme Drought. Hopefully we can beat this back some next week.

Picked up .26" in fast moving torrential downpour. Lasted about 3 minutes and turned on and off like a faucet. Was on the southern fringe of T-storm that raced by just to my north. I'll take it. Better than nothing.

One thing for sure. Anyone who does not get meaningful rain today or tomorrow is going to have to wait until mid or late week next week for next chance at anything worth mentioning. As for today does not look hopeful for any decent amounts over a widespread area. Best chances tomorrow south and east of the TTN to EWR line. Expectations for my location are low that any relief from the obscene dryness comes over the next 24 - 36 hours. Add to that sunny skies with low humidity Friday into the weekend will continue to dry things out.

Agree. We'll see how it goes. Not likely to see highs upper 90's to 100 and 105 HI after today until next summer. That does not mean 90-95 highs and some HI readings in the upper 90's are quite over, or at least the possibility of them. I'm more interested in increased rainfall chances and the possible tropical connection. No doubt weak to modest trof over Ohio Valley and being on the western edge of WAR could make things interesting.

My location is not near as bad as some. Did pretty well in June and got lucky twice in July. My 60 day total as of today is 5.63". Some are much less fortunate so for my location it is just starting to suck.

Based on current satellite, radar and soundings not going to be any meaningful rainfall today across the area. Maybe a few small pulse storms that will come and go quickly. Another dry day. Really starting to suck.

IF real I wouldn't mind that pattern going into peak hurricane season. Trof axis around Ohio Valley, dominate WAR just offshore and blocking near Atlantic Canada. One can hope some semblance of that pattern comes to fruition for later in August.

Few pop ups now over Union and Somerset Counties. Will be interesting to see if the blossom and unload?

And it is not over yet. More storms developing on the western end of the cluster and destined to train over the already soaked and flooded areas.

Was just going to post. Northern Ocean County getting trained good. Outflow signature on radar going NW and south from storm cluster. Northern Ocean getting drenched with likely local flooding. Not a drop here

Yeah, exactly. Plot shows it well. Per radar they are raining themselves out in place and then new ones form. Places in NEPA are getting drenched. Not over a widespread area but there are locations that are going to end up with hefty totals and LOCAL flash flooding. We need to get storms to pop over NJ because the ones in NEPA are not destined to MOVE into NJ.