MANDA

Walt. I for one and I suspect most here will l miss your threads and very insightful and detailed posts. Have followed your AFD's since you were up at KBOX. I might have even saved some in a box somewhere. Many of them were meteorological masterpieces. Learned so much from you. Truly a treasure to have your insights here on these boards over all these years. You are 100% correct that health and family come first. I wish you all the best at Christmas, in the New Year and always! Please drop in here as you can even if just to post obs. THANK YOU !

I'd have to say this event over performed for most.

Wider view of snow cover.

Sun is breaking through the clouds here.

Exceeded my expectations and my forecast up this way. Was thinking along the lines of 3" max. Measured at 8am - 5.5". Melted .46". The NW edge of this really over performed for NWNJ area. Great old fashioned snow event with solid totals and colder air pouring in behind the system. Currently 21 degrees here. Mid teens to low 20's over NWNJ currently and likely not rising much today. Bitter cold tonight with solid snow cover. By the way the snow ratio here was 12:1.

Just a shame really. One of the longest periods of record and it has just been destroyed. From not measuring snow correctly to having temperature sensors in a thicket. Station with a long period of record has just been shot to hell.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2025_12/78737872339__848BC808-B7C3-4D99-8C53-71C29ED07154.MOV.5779d31ad20290d90b645e14252c8d0d.MOV Currently 29 with steady light snow.

Down to 27 with steady light snow now. Total .20”. 78737872339__848BC808-B7C3-4D99-8C53-71C29ED07154.MOV

That's what you call a trend right there !

Very light snow here. Still 29 degrees. Just a light coating on everything at this point. Less than .10" so far. Nice solid area of snow on radar covering all of eastern PA. Just about to cross the border into NJ. Should be snowing at a better clip here inside of 60 minutes.

29 here and just the lightest of flurries. My forecast for around my area is 1-3". Not expecting to reach 4" around here unless this over performs this far NW. We'll see how it goes. Best to everyone....enjoy!

Some of the ponds around here are frozen as well. Not sure of depth but they are iced over and snow covered. Wouldn't want to organize an ice hockey game just yet.

Picked up .7" snowfall last evening in persistent and at times heavy snow squalls. Visibility on Route 80 at the height of things was horrendous with moderate to heavy snow at times and a gusty wind. The salt water spray being kicked up onto the windshield was no help either. The .7" last evening boosts my seasonal total to 2.3". On a nickle and dime ride to 3". Lots of brine being sprayed today. As early as 9am on Route 10 out this way. Just don't see how it helps to spray this stuff 36 hours before an event is scheduled to begin. Wouldn't it be worn out by all the traffic over 36 hours?? I don't know, just asking.

Picked up .9" snow here late afternoon into the evening. Came down at a good clip for a bit.

Same here. Left Chatham about 4:00 and it was 41 with light to some moderate rain. They were salting the roads like it was the end of days. Never snowed down there and even if it had dumping salt at 4:00 was going to do nothing even if it switched to snow by 6. Would have been mostly washed away. Took back roads home (Sussex Turnpike) and once I got to Randolph it switched to snow like someone flipped a switch. Snow, sometimes heavy rest of the way home. By the time I got home at 5:30 (made a stop) all local roads were snow covered. My rural not well traveled street had been plowed. Snow ended about 7:00. Took measurement at that time and had .90" as an event total. Currently sitting at 1.6" for the season. Temperature hovered right around 32 during the snowfall but once it ended it bounced up to 34.5. About 1/2" remains on the deck at 9:30 due to compaction and some melting. Nice little event. Spoke to a friend up in Newton and it was pretty nasty up on the side roads up that way.

Cold across the Yukon Territory of Canada this morning is extremely impressive. Temperatures -35 to -40 over a fairly large area with a -52 at Beaver Creek. Impressive cold pool stretching from interior Siberia over the pole into western Canada.

Arctic surge for the coming weekend into early next week into the northeast is first class cold for any point in Winter, never mind December 15th. Ouch!

Virginia snowfall from just yesterday. Does not include the totals from the event on the 5th. Meanwhile I'm sitting with a trace on the ground and .70" for the season to date.

12Z OP GFS (yeah, I know GFS, 300+ hours out, lowest skill score of the major globals) persists in uncorking western Canada / High Arctic cold flow into the U.S. in the lead up to Christmas. Details and placement to be confirmed but the point is that it's too early to be dismissive of significant cold lasting into Christmas week. GFS probably extreme but I'm not planning on a Christmas torch this year. The 12Z GFS surface pattern out to the end of the run is something we've not seen in quite a while with high pressure stretching from the high Arctic southeastward into the central U.S. Time will tell and something interesting to watch. In the meantime pattern is cold and dry with precipitation being measured in the a couple of tenths at best over the next 7 days or so. I just can't get too invested in little nickle and dime snow events. Unless it falls on Christmas Eve.

Currently 22 here (10:30 a.m.) with some scattered flurries between 8 and 8:30. Currently mid to upper teens NW Sussex County ice box spots as cold air continues to spill in behind the front.

Pretty much entire NYC metro area. Colder and dry looks to dominate next 7-10 days at least and that takes us to about 12/17. Beyond 12/17 through perhaps the end of the month I'd lean towards that period averaging colder than normal to at worst normal...along the lines of -2 to +.5 as an early call for 12/16 to 12/31. Below normal precipitation as well I think.

Current longer range guidance differs significantly as to what the pattern does just beyond mid-month. ECAI wants nothing to do with any kind of a notable moderation in temperatures. It keeps the cold locked and loaded through Christmas. Other guidance relaxes the cold but nothing suggests any kind of a Christmas torch this year. We'll see. Modeled forecasts of warm ups have been either wrong or muted for the most part since back in October. Snowfall prospects much more uncertain but I'd favor persistence and lean toward possible light clipper / frontal passage events. Don't see any solid evidence at this point in the longer range of anything major 4-8"+. In general I'd favor overall below normal precipitation for the next 7-10 days. Colder and generally dry pattern looks to dominate.

Totally agree with you. It all started with every event after November 2018. I never remember it before that and vividly remember it after that! 100%

It is honestly obscene. Was in a mall parking lot last night and i t was LOADED with rock salt. Almost could not see pavement though it.

12Z OP EURO is cranking out some bitter cold for late next week / weekend from the upper Mid-West / Great Lakes then into the Northeast. Big cold high drops to Iowa/Missouri by next Saturday and pushes east. OP at face value is storm squashing cold. We'll see but one thing for sure solidly below normal through mid month at least.