MANDA

Here are the associated graphics:

https://x.com/i/status/2015216979687153771 Thunder snow in Lebanon, VA. Turn up the sound.

Reasonable solution.

Wow, cool stuff !

I"m going to need to see some support from the 00Z CMC RDPS / HRDPS before I give much weight to this. If it is onto something both the RDPS and HRDPS should start to see it.

With the extremely cold and dry air would expect the snow to start out fine and grainy early on. Once the lift and saturation gets underway look for nice dendrites that accumulate efficiently.

Model consensus looks like at any given point the best forcing lasts for about 4 hours. Will rip snow from around late morning to mid afternoon from SW to NE across NJ/NYC metro and LI. Most of snow will fall during that time. Glad this will be taking place during the daylight hours.

I've got 7-11" I-78/I-80 corridors and 6-9 EWR, CP, JFK

Based on most guidance going to see intense rate of snowfall from roughly 11am through 4pm along and north of a TTN to Sandy Hook to Montauk line from SW to NE. The bulk of the snow is going to fall during those roughly 5 hours.

Had a low here this morning of 1. List of some NJ mins for today. Warmest minimum was 11 at Point Pleasant.

Final call for my area and the I-78/I-80 corridor in general. I have been riding 6-10" for the last few days. I'm a little reluctant to change it in the event the NAM is close to reality. However based on the following I am going to up it slightly: -There is going to be 3-4 hours of rippage with snow rates over 1" per hour as best forcing and lift moves northward. The ratios with that are going to be greater than 10:1, likely 12-14:1 for a while. -Thinking the NAM is slightly rushing the mid level warming and while I still believe sleet gets to I-80 and even north of there eventually, it may not rocket through as per the NAM. -The 6-10" I'd been going with might still be fine but think the 6" might be a tad low for the bottom amount and the 10" might not quite be enough at the top end. -NAM is the most dismal solution. Other shorter range models are suggesting maybe the mid level warming does not get quite to I-80 or it may drift back south once it does. Not giving high weight to that but it is possible. Think the mix eventually gets north of the NJ/NY border. -Once the best forcing and lift passes north of the area the precipitation will be lighter and likely in the form of sleet. Going with 1 to 1.25" of liquid with about 60% of that (about .68") falling as pure snow - average ratio of 12:1 (8"). Final call: 7-11" along the I-78/I-80 corridor. Seems like a good low to high end amount. Think the 12"+ amounts will be mainly confined to central and NW Sussex County and NW Passaic County on northward. EWR, CP and JFK would go with 7-9". If some of the colder and snowier model solutions verify my forecast amounts will verify low. We're pretty much at go time so let the flakes fall where they may. If I don't see another Kuchera map for a while I'll be happy.

Currently 5 here.

Currently 5 degrees and pretty windy. Just stepped out for a minute and it is freaking cold.

10:55 and 5 degrees.

Temperature down to 12 here. 8:40 p.m.

They were cleaned out!

Got the Kuchera???? And only 246 hours away. What are we thinking for ratios?

Just got back from the store. All set here.

I've seen nothing today that makes me want to change my ongoing forecast for my immediate area and south and east along I-78/I80. Holding steady with 6-10" for now. Fully planning on a mix with sleet here and probably a bit sooner than later. Could be wrong but we'll know for sure in about 48 hours. If the NAM is still beating this 18Z drum at 00Z this evening and 12Z tomorrow there is going to be some cliff jumping. Not buying it hook, line and sinker just yet but keeping the option open.

Nice that a good part of this event will be taking place during the day !

He may well be, I don't watch. In this case he will be so far out of his league. Honestly I find the guy to be 5 bricks short of a load. A little cray cray if you ask me but then again nobody did so....moving on.

One of those guys has no business being there.

Mt. Holly cut back totals over SNJ.

I gotta agree. Watching the NAM closely and not ignoring it. To blindly write it off as wrong is setting yourself up for disappointment. At least keep it in the back of your mind. If it is doing this on the 12Z runs tomorrow believe it. Still early enough for pause with it as of now.

We know that but does most of the regular public know that?