MANDA

Clock is ticking on Hurricane Season 2025 as far as U.S. threats. Biggest show in town will be the coastal low Sunday into early next week for the mid and north Atlantic coast. Lots of cool and dry air will be flowing into the central and eastern U.S. mid to late October. That will sort of put the lid on anything major approaching the Gulf coast. CAG looks to be under performing so far this season. Still time for something to lift north but I think the window is shut as far as anything major for U.S. Not to say the coming coastal storm will be insignificant. Lots of coastal damage looks to be incoming.

Picked up an additional .16" rainfall after 8am measurement yesterday. Event total was .47". Ground moistened for rains later Sunday into Monday. Chilly and breezy morning here. Overnight low of 44. So glad we have moved on from 80+. Some of the coolest NJ mins attached:

Over several high tide cycles. Verbatim that is a major coastal erosion / flooding event.

Breaks of sun here and 56 degrees. So much better than the l/m 80's of the last several days.

As of 8:00.....Light to some moderate rain ongoing. Chilly and damp. Temp. 59 with a gusty breeze. Rainfall thus far .31". Maybe another .10" to go. A tad less than I was expecting but soil is primed for what may come over the weekend into early next week.

Agreed! Can't remember last time I saw something like this. Really interesting.

yep, remember the "stuck" issue well. That auto roller on the back of the machine was only good enough to roll 10-12 hours of maps after that it was a guaranteed jam. How many times you cut yourself replacing that sharp metal helix?

Wow, I've not looked at those maps in a long time ! Reminds me of the old DIFAX days.

12Z GFS verbatim looks pretty threatening for some serious wave / erosion action up to NJ/LI. Interested to see what the EURO / AI does shortly. Back and forth we go.

Yeah, should be interesting. I kind of said the same thing yesterday. Lots of model frustration looming.

Fully expecting 1/2" rainfall here late tonight into Wednesday morning. No matter, a nice October chill is on the way and I for one can't wait. First frost over a large area Thursday night and a freeze for NW cold spots. I hope when I switch the central a/c off tomorrow that is it for the season. Have had it on last several nights and I'm ready to have the windows open again.

Going to be a looooong winter if this pattern keeps up. By looooong I mean frustrating.

Remember those seasons well. Especially 1995 with Felix. He tried hard to get back to the coast but no cigar. All the others from the MDR stayed safely out.

Yes and about 65% of seasonal ACE comes from Erin and Humberto and 85% of seasonal ACE to date comes from 3 storms when you add Gabrielle to the mix. Strange season as you said. Still think we have a shot at a Cat. 3 U.S. hit coming out of the Caribbean in one form or another before the season ends. Florida most at risk of that IMO. A north gulf coast hit from a major seems iffy at best at this point. Most likely anything that approached would have to battle drier air and shear.

Something to keep you cool on an unseasonably warm October day. From Dr. Maue X post. Covers the full upcoming winter season. Buckle up ! I'd bet on the under myself.

Sorry, maybe I should have been more clear. Was referencing MDR stuff with persistent re-curvature. Nothing from MDR has presented with a U.S. landfall threat. Erin was 200 miles away but only the notable large size and intensity made it more impactful than it would have been. Still the fact is all MDR action has re-curved OTS. Chantal was a home brew deal. I was strictly referring to MDR activity in my post.

Pattern of re-curvature has been so persistent this season. Nothing even within striking distance so far. Any U.S. threat for balance of the season will have to come out of the Caribbean. Said this about two months ago and I'm holding to it.

Overnight low here of 45. Perfect. Windows open until just before daybreak. Walpack bottomed out at 31 with lots of l/m 40's over northern and central NJ. The coming warmup will truly suck after these nice crisp few days. At least some rainfall on the horizon in about a week.

Yes, this is what I mean. Keep the dry pattern going through Winter and come Spring we will be significantly below normal. Long ways to go but pattern has been rather persistent. If we get lots of suppression from high pressure to our north as we move through Fall and Winter it will keep the dry pattern going. Very possible.

Keep this pattern going and it will be a different story for the reservoirs come Spring. Not saying pattern will persist but a drier than normal pattern for Winter is not out of the question. And I 100% agree if you have ag or garden / landscaping interests this pattern is not enjoyable.

Seems like over them or just south of them is most likely at this point. Will be interesting to watch and see how this unfolds.

Nice stats Don. Thanks. Last October was brutally dry, remember that well.

Taking a break from all the warm and dry chatter for a moment it sure is nice out there this morning. Great sleeping weather with the windows open and the blankets up. Nice breeze with a bit of a "wind chill" going on. Nice! Overnight low here was 48. Walpack, NJ was lowest I saw with an overnight low of 36, that was a notable exception. Most NNJ cold spots were in the l/m 40's. We now return you to our regularly scheduled program.

Looking forward to the cool down no matter how short lived it will be. Rainfall here for September was better than for most places. Received 3.32" for the month. That was mostly from the 2.15" that fell on 9/5, surprise over performer. Rest of the month was scattered light events. Hopefully October can deliver more widespread moderate to heavier totals but my expectations are low.

Nice visible loop.....on her way to Cat 2. I'd venture to say Imelda reaches Hurricane status by 5pm based on radar and satellite over the past few hours. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop90.html