MANDA

Two periods of light snow here so far this morning.  Colder surfaces with a light coating.  Temperature 29.  I'll take what I can get!

Festive mood flakes!

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Triple phase with the Arctic jet and tremendous feed of Atlantic/Gulf/Pacific moisture. We see that maybe twice a century. 

I believe the Ohio Valley Blizzard of January 1978 was also a triple phaser, not 100% sure though.  That storm EXPLODED moving almost due north from southern Alabama to just west of Cleveland.  Where I was in NENJ at the time we had temperatures into the low 60's and wind gusts to about 60 mph followed by plummeting temperatures and a flash freeze.  A blizzard paralyzed the parts of the Ohio Valley.  Just a few weeks later we had our turn with the Blizzard of 78 over our area.

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was a huge deal at the time. It started getting hyped 5 days in advance. Something unheard of then. 10-12" was something we hadn't seen in 6+ years. I worked at a supermarket at the time and it was an absolute madhouse the night before.

If it didn't take a track right over us we would have had double the snowfall but it was still a huge deal. Didn't go back to school until the following Wednesday due to the flash freeze 

Have a set of old DIFAX maps framed on my office wall.  Event was well signaled 5 days in advance.  All three streams phased from the high Arctic down to the gulf coast.  If track was 100 miles further east most of this forum would have seen a snow event rivaling the Blizzard of '88.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

There should be no shortage of storms this winter.   Just have to hope there's a decent cold air supply at times...

and phasing with the STJ if you want something to remember.  The STJ will be present for sure but without some stream interaction we could be on the the northern edge of things.  Not to mention (as you did) the cold air supply.

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The first hint something unusual was going on was when NYC tied the all-time lowest August temperature at the end of the month of 50°. Several NW suburbs actually dropped into the upper 30s on August 31st. This was followed up by 2nd lowest October temperature of 29° in NYC. The locally colder spots were able to dip below 20. The historic cold continued with widespread single digits on December 3rd.This was the 2nd earliest single digits on record in NYC. So nothing like the climate of the early 2020s.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1986	50	0
-	1982	50	0
-	1976	50	0
-	1965	50	0
-	1885	50	0

 

Monthly Data for August 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	37
CT	DANBURY	COOP	38
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	38
NY	CARMEL	COOP	39
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	39
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	39
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	39

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1936	28	0
2	1976	29	0
-	1925	29	0
-	1887	29	0
-	1879	29	0

 

Monthly Data for October 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	16
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	17
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	18

 

Data for December 3, 1976 through December 3, 1976
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	1
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	2
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	2
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	3
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	3
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	4
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	4
CT	DANBURY	COOP	4
NY	CARMEL	COOP	5
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	5
CT	GROTON	COOP	5
NY	MARYKNOLL	COOP	5
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	6
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	7
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	7
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	7
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	7
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	7
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	8
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	8
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	8
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	8
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	8
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	8
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	8
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	9
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	9

I remember it turning quite cool for a day or so right after Hurricane Belle went by in early August.  Except for the sun angle it felt like mid September.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 76-77 was the only winter I experienced with little ice age style extended cold. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Max Temperature <= 32	Missing Count
1	1976-1977	45	0
2	1917-1918	42	0
3	1880-1881	40	0
4	1903-1904	39	0
-	1884-1885	39	0
5	1935-1936	38	0
6	1919-1920	37	0
-	1904-1905	37	0
-	1892-1893	37	0
7	1977-1978	36	0
8	1887-1888	35	0
9	1878-1879	34	1
-	1872-1873	34	0
10	1933-1934	33	0
-	1874-1875	33	2

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Min Temperature <= 20	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	48	0
2	1880-1881	46	0
3	1976-1977	44	0
4	1935-1936	43	0
-	1919-1920	43	0
5	1933-1934	42	0
-	1903-1904	42	0
-	1874-1875	42	2
6	1884-1885	41	0
7	1872-1873	40	0
8	1892-1893	39	0
9	1906-1907	38	0
-	1887-1888	38	0
10	1993-1994	37	0
-	1871-1872	37	1

That kind of cold is incomprehensible these days.  That 76-77 and 77-78 was amazing stuff.  Pattern in 76-77 quickly collapsed in early February 77 from what I remember. I seem to remember walking home from school mid to late February and breaking a sweat.  Good old days for sure.  Not much snow 76-77, only one decent event but snow cover for a very long period of time as nothing melted from December through early February.

Low of 18 with a breeze.  Legit "hoodie weather".

Moderate snow shower earlier (bordering on very briefly heavy) left the deck completely covered.  Also whitened dirt and mulch beds with trace amounts scattered on the lawn.  Some blowing around with a gusty wind.

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same

Not even much of a risk to say 5X as much as last year.

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are no indications that this winter will be a shutout.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say CP will see twice the amount of snow it saw last season. 

Per friend in Trenton moderate snow showers ongoing.  Radar supports this.   Dirt is white and starting to stick on the grass. 

1.46" rain for the recent event.

Keep expectations in check and just know it has to be better than last year !  I am not expecting much from December based on current trends and guidance.

No notable wind here but a solid soaking.  Will measure shortly but eyeballing the gauge from a distance I'd say about 1.5".  To be confirmed shortly.

55 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam back to drencher for tomorrow night

 

Like I said yesterday....gonna be an interesting winter to forecast.  Guidance has been flip floppy for months on most major precip events around here. Sometimes even within 24 hours and that includes the EURO.

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models all over the place for Sunday night. Cmc gives us 1 to 2"+. Euro <.25" west of city

Going to be a fun Winter. 

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the model graphics off of the old Alden Difax machines were primitive compared to what we have today. Plus the accuracy of those old models was so low that it was the era of nowcasting many big events. I can remember all the paper jams in those old machines. But the April 1982 blizzard still stands as one of my favorite snowstorms of all time. Starting as rain and then changing to blizzard conditions with some of the most lightning I have ever seen with snow. To have early April heavy snow stick on the pavement in the afternoon with no trouble after rain with highs only in the 20s was like something out of the 1800s.

Waiting for the paper to dry before doing an analysis!  Hitting refresh every 30 seconds waiting for the FOUS to arrive. 

Checking for the latest PREXTD discussion (WSI) when something was pending and hoping that Weinbrenner or Ships wrote it. 

59 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I vaguely yremember the April 82 Snowstorm.  What I remember most about it was filling in for George Cullen at CBS NY Weather.  I made an awful gaff for predicting a daytime temperature for the city of Chicago that Steve Deshler was not happy about.  However, I noticed the LFM picking up the snowstorm.  Irv Gikofsky laughed at my analysis.  

Remember that weather office well!  Small and rather cramped.  Was there (WCBS TV) late 83 to early 86.  Started on weekends working with Tom Chisholm and when Frank Field came over from NBC Irv was bumped to weekends and Tom was let go.  Tom was great.  George was a great and very funny guy.  Ran into him many times as I was leaving on Sunday nights and he was coming in.  Steve Baskerville was also quite humorous.   Also worked with John Coleman on occasion.  Nice guy but a bit of a loose cannon when it came to forecasting.  Tried to reel in in a few times but he wanted no part of it.  I was right every time but it went unspoken about.   Moving from the old office to the new one was a refreshing experience.  We got a WINDOW !  Many stories I could tell.

27 here.

Cold morning with frost.  Low of 32.  Nice weather but I'd rather watch oil based paint dry.  Boring pattern continues.

NJ October weather Summary:

https://www.njweather.org/content/tranquility-october-2023-recap

Seems like November continues the trend of October.   Zzzzzzzz for at least the next week to 10 days.  Nothing resembling a good cold shot in our immediate future that's for sure.

18 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Zzzzz this month

You aren't kidding.  At least for the next 7-10 days a real snooze fest.  Boring.

Low this morning was 24.8.  Heavy frost and killing freeze.

Overnight low of 36 here.

Rainfall for October at my location was a rather scant 2.12".

Wet year to date at 49.80".

Low of 37 here.