MANDA

No changes to the Drought Monitor this sub forum.  With the rain last week, cool temperatures and lowering sun angle not as critical as it would have been back in July and August.  Drought intensified / expanded over New England.

38 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Looks like nice extended summer next week. Still no real heat coming, but highs probably in the low 80s here all next week. 

Not my favorite but manageable.  This cool run has been great though.

Just entered my CoCoRaHs obs.  My 9/5 to 9/8 total was 2.5".  Much needed.  Beautiful chilly morning with a low of 46. 

Lowest I've seen is Sandyston, NJ at 40.

Picked up .35" yesterday afternoon into this morning.  Had .22" in early afternoon T-Shower and an additional .13" overnight with periods of light rain and drizzle.  All done now.  Total for month up to 2.50".  Dry week ahead but these two rain events were a big help.  Things looking greener.

Pleasant temperatures this coming week with some chilly nights.

With 91L kaput we will likely reach the historical peak of hurricane season (9/10-9/11) with no named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

ACE season to date is now below normal.  We're at 39 and normal is 47.  Erin is responsible for 32 of those 39 ACE points. 

We're wasting peak season at this point so we're going to have some catching up to do if we want to get to normal which is 122.  It still can be done though so we'll have to see what mid September into October can pull off.   MJO forecast to go into more favorable phases by then but we've been playing a bit of kick the can on that so remains to be seen.  Gut tells me watch out for something to lift out of the Caribbean toward the Gulf coast before all is said and done.  I think if there is going to be a Major hit on the U.S. coastline this season it will be the gulf coast.  Chances of an east coast major hit this season are low and decreasing for several reasons.

Not expecting anything to get named over the next 5-7 days.

That is a NASTY looking line of storms from southern NH solidly right down into NYC/western LI down to around Trenton.

Some other nasty looking storms across southern and central parts of NJ.

So far I've missed anything notable in my area but have picked up .22" from some fast moving heavier showers.

Best activity and totals going forward look to be right along and east of I95.  I could be mostly done around here?

2 minutes ago, Picard said:

Some stuff may be developing, or develop later, but isn't what we are currently seeing already quite a bit north of the models?

Certainly what is on radar now is moving briskly along to the NE.  Not like the other night with slow moving training batches of rain....at least so far.

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Yeah, our key time, a few miles south of Philly is 4-5 pm when the outdoor ceremony was planned (after that it's all indoors) and while the HRRR is showing precip holding off down here (and for 95 up through CNJ) until about 6 pm, the 12Z NAM and RGEM, so far, are showing at least 0.1-0.2" from 2-5 pm (presumably mostly closer to 5 pm), which would be a mess for an outdoor wedding that ends at 5 pm.  Tough call, but we've already decided to move the ceremony indoors, which has the bonus of getting a bunch of people over 55 out of the heat and humidity.  Thanks, as always, for your expertise.  

You made the right choice!  You also got people under 55 out of the heat and humidity 

With 91L kaput we will likely reach the historical peak of hurricane season (9/10-9/11) with no named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

ACE season to date is now below normal.  We're at 39 and normal is 47.  Erin is responsible for 32 of those 39 ACE points. 

We're wasting peak season at this point so we're going to have some catching up to do if we want to get to normal which is 122.  It still can be done though so we'll have to see what mid September into October can pull off.   MJO forecast to go into more favorable phases by then but we've been playing a bit of kick the can on that so remains to be seen.  Gut tells me watch out for something to lift out of the Caribbean toward the Gulf coast before all is said and done.  I think if there is going to be a Major hit on the U.S. coastline this season it will be the gulf coast.  Chances of an east major hit this season are low and decreasing for several reasons.

Not expecting anything to get named over the next 5-7 days.

11 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Might be DOA 

Said this yesterday.  The plug has been pulled.

Looking to me like 91L might be DOA.  Just looking quite hostile in the path ahead of it.  Shear and dry air abound.  Kind of makes sense why models that had it developing kept in very small...like it found the sweet spot in a very hostile environment.  Not expecting much from this now, IMO.  PERHAPS, MAYBE some remnant of it eventually makes it to western Caribbean where conditions would be more favorable but that looks like a long shot at the moment.

We're kind of back where we started....looking for home brew stuff to pop.

Did well in the rainfall department last 24 hours.  Total = 2.15".  Nice over performing rainfall event over a rather large area.

Very welcome rainfall!

Hit the jackpot here.  Just checked the gauge and 1.12".  It really came down it torrents so can't say I'm surprised.  Current radar says I might add to that total over the next several hours.   

Was a nice drink.  Sorry for others who missed out.

Coming down in torrents.  Some good rumbles and flashes.  Winds gusting to about 25 mph.

Line looking very robust.  About to move through my area.  Will let ya know how it goes in about 90 minutes.

I'm giddy with anticipation!

Just minor increase in drought conditions over our sub forum week over week.  Big increase in Severe Drought conditions over central New England.  Related most likely to not only the lack of rainfall but all of the over the top warmth making the dry conditions worse.

The entire Northeast needs rain.  Hopefully we get SOMETHING over the next 7 days.  Some locations perhaps .50" to 1" over the next 7 day period but you gotta take the under with the way things have been going.

Perhaps if the under modeled stronger WAR ridge in longer range guidance persists we can get some kind of tropical remnant to come up along the Appalachians out of the eastern GOM before the hurricane season quits.  I think easier to do that than to get something to ride up along or just off the east coast.

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hey Manda,

 Your posts are appreciated but please go here for discussion devoted to Invest 91L:

 

Oops. Sorry and thanks!

Development "cone" associated with 91L has become decidedly more east to west oriented as of 2pm TWO.   It has been trending that way over the last several days and now is pretty much directed into the Caribbean or JUST north of the islands by mid to late next week.  We'll see how it goes but at least something interesting to watch.  Long ways to go.

Invest 91L just designated for Atlantic wave.

We have Invest 91L in the eastern Atlantic.

Area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic is starting to organize.  Finally something to watch.  Would expect an invest later today or tomorrow.

Safe re curvature is not a given.  Some impacts to at least the eastern Caribbean islands mid next week seems pretty plausible.  Beyond that ?

Area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic is starting to organize.  Finally something to watch.  Would expect an invest later today or tomorrow.

Safe re curvature is not a given.  Some impacts to at least the eastern Caribbean islands mid next week seem pretty plausible.  Beyond that ?

I'd rather watch a 100GB file download on a 300 baud modem than watch this boring weather.  SO BORING !  Very pleasant but very boring.

Received 1.80" of rainfall here for August.  Meteorological Summer (J-J-A) totaled 7.88".  Could have been worse for sure but still quite dry as most of the rainfall events were followed by 10-14 day stretches with little to no rain.

Sure hope we can cash in on something decent this coming week.  

Hurricane season has been pretty lame.  Slightly above normal ACE to date with 39 ACE units vs. normal 34.  Erin is responsible for 32 of the 39.  We will go below normal ACE wise by Tuesday.  Nothing looks remotely interesting at the moment.