MANDA

30 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Yes, the color scale is horrendous.

Never paid attention to this before.  Have they always used this color scheme?  It is a joke.

14 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The GFS is so bad it has quite literally been replaced by AI

GFS is a useless model.  Not sure why anyone uses it for anything more than 36-48 hours in advance.  It flips and flops like a fish out of water from one run to the next.

The big snow event in the Northeast last February was one of the very few times the blind squirrel found the nut.

Dipped to 31 in Walpack overnight.  Lots of upper 30's around the state in spots that radiate well.  Even as far south as Vineland in far south Jersey.  Temperatures per NJ WXNET.

Overnight low here was 42 on the top of the hill.  

17 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

44/37 currently. 30s tomorrow night likely. 

Currently 38 in Walpack and 41 in Sandyston per NJ WXNET.  Those places in the NW Sussex County valleys radiate like crazy so sub freezing likely there come Wednesday morning and close to freezing in a few spots tomorrow morning.

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The STJ should start ramping up as we go deeper into Autumn.

No matter what there is high confidence in a strong STJ developing as we head through Fall and Winter.  Almost seems like a given at this point.  Storminess will abound.  Hopefully we can time some moisture with bouts of cold air.  Lots of questions as to the amount of cold that will be available and how it evolves over the central and eastern US north of the Mason Dixon line.

I think an interesting Fall and Winter ahead but details who knows.

31 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Nice graphic.

Hard to envision a hurricane coming out of this but a wet TS affecting portions of the Gulf coast seems a like a reasonable expectation at this time.

39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under brilliant sunshine, today was a great day to see some of the migrating hummingbirds and monarchs at the New York Botanical Garden.

 

Just amazing photos as always!

Beautiful morning with nice breeze, blue skies and cool temperatures.  Overnight low of 51.

Leaf color change becoming rapidly noticeable up this way.

Pumpkin spice everything is everywhere.

The pick your own apple orchards are hurting with many closed due to the Spring freeze.

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

17.4 (1983)

 Going back all the way to 1851, only 3 had lower ACE than 1983 and all of them could have been higher in reality due to being way before the satellite era: 1914, 1925, 1907

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Interesting link.  Thanks.

Will be interesting to see where this season ends up.  I would take the over on 17.4 but hard pressed at the moment to see where that comes from.  Still time to add ACE.  Clock is ticking on getting a hurricane though.

I know 1914 has lowest ACE on record.  I consider anything not in the satellite era questionable.

In the satellite era what season has lowest ACE?  

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

Pretty impressive and leaves a lot of coastal locations open to further trouble as we head through Fall and Winter.

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Fay was again downgraded to a TD and looks like it is dissipating. However, the 12Z UKMET restrengthens Fay to a TS this weekend that then comes within 175 miles ESE of Bermuda.  I’m not yet buying this, but I’m not assuming anything with the Energizer Bunny that is Fay. This is the 3rd run in a row near Bermuda and the umpteenth run in a row that keeps the Energizer Bunny going:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 47.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2026 0 24.3N 47.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.0N 51.2W 1014 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 36 23.0N 53.1W 1014 23
1200UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.8N 55.4W 1015 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 60 24.4N 57.2W 1015 26
1200UTC 02.10.2026 72 25.6N 59.1W 1014 28
0000UTC 03.10.2026 84 26.5N 60.6W 1013 30
1200UTC 03.10.2026 96 27.5N 61.9W 1011 32
0000UTC 04.10.2026 108 28.7N 62.3W 1011 33
1200UTC 04.10.2026 120 30.1N 62.2W 1010 36
0000UTC 05.10.2026 132 31.5N 61.9W 1010 36
1200UTC 05.10.2026 144 33.1N 61.0W 1009 39
0000UTC 06.10.2026 156 35.1N 59.4W 1008 32
1200UTC 06.10.2026 168 37.5N 56.2W 1006 34

Crazy storm in a crazy season.  The rebirth of Fay and the birth of not so horrible Hanna will get us to just over 10 ACE points season to date as we close September.  Still waiting on the first hurricane of the season.  We've blown past that record.

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

What is this ranking based on-pressure? 

Record high tide ranking.

Next 7 days per WPC.  About as wet a forecast as you will see over such a large area.

41 years ago today:

https://x.com/NycStormChaser/status/2104365901864919338/video/1

From what I can remember the power outages across L.I. were extreme and long lasting.

Back in the LICO days.

23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

91L looks like it developed a surface circulation on visible this morning, though it is highly sheared and looks to remain as such through its existence. Would not shock me if it steals a name and boosts the seasonal NS numbers of this weird season. 

Certainly going with quantity and not quality this season.  

Three day event totals:

Some 7-8" totals scattered around in there.  

Click maps to enlarge

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

still raining some here but mostly over.  About 1.75 storm total.  Happy to miss the bigger amts seen elsewhere

Mist and drizzle ended here about an hour ago.  Three day event total: 1.55".  Happy to have missed out on the bigger totals as well!

M.T.D.: 5.46".  Y.T.D.: 46.63".  Making a run at 50"+ year.

Lots of discussion over the last few days about how this storm should be classified.  No shortage of opinions from several respected Mets.  

These two X posts make the most sense to me.  It was shallow warm core and it did separate from fronts for a short time.  No matter what it was not your typical cold season Nor-Easter and was not purely tropical. Hybrid or Sub-Tropical designation seems best way to go IMO.

Pretty cool radar evolution of this event from about 8pm last evening through current hour.  Not your classic Nor-Easter look.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-comp_radar-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Event total rainfall here so far .99".

Very windy overnight.  Estimating gusts to 40 mph.  Winds blew hard all night.  Lots of leaves, twigs and small branches down in the yard.  Numerous power outages in my immediate area.  JCPL reporting close to 46,000 customers out across their service areas in NJ.  

Southeast New England and coastal Jersey have received the heaviest total rainfall.

Forecasts for a high impact coastal storm worked out well.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Getting ready to walk in Tunnels2Towers 

Great cause.  Good luck!