MANDA

I think we could easily go through the rest of August with <5 ACE points.  Zero additional ACE points certainly in play but not ready to go that low just yet but certainly possible.

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of yesterday's heavy rain, I went out to Queens to get some photos on a day off. Below are six photos from Alley Pond and Oakland Lake.

 

ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL!

Solid soaking for everyone.  

Most guidance did well showing where the max area of rainfall would end up from NYC on east.

Was expecting 1-2" here and ended up with 2.14".   Lesser amounts just NW of here up into Sussex County with generally 1 to 1.5" up that way.

Either way everyone has had enough rain lately!  Meteorological Summer which has 10 days left to go has been wet.  In some places VERY WET.

Feels amazing out there.  Temperature 59 with a gusty NNE wind.  Feels like mid September!

Opening the windows tonight!

Rainfall for the day: 2.14".

August to date: 7.61"

Since 7/1: 16.60"

Since 6/1: 22.11"

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ongoing system has brought 1" or more hourly amounts of rain to numerous locations in the New York City area. Some locations include:

Don,

Just curious.  Does that 1.82"/hr. land on a top 10 hourly list for CP?  Are the totals from Ida remnants at the top of the list?

Thanks-

Torrential downpours over the last 2 hours or so.  Based on radar the heaviest of the rain is through my area.  Just light to some moderate rain next 90 minutes or so.  Eyeballing the gauge it looks like about 2".  That would put me at 7.5" for the month of August so far.  Will get an exact measurement about 9:00 or so.  Came down is torrents at times. Thankfully the heaviest has passed through and totals around here did not go off the rails.

Rain has begun here.  A few brief heavy downpours but they moved through quickly.  Radar filling in.

39 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Noon Excessive Rainfall probs increased to the moderate range for PHL/NYC metro. 

Associated discussion and Flash Flood Watch was also lifted slightly north and NW from earlier this morning.

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The August 20, 2026 12z HREF:

Feeling FAIRLY confident that my area of NW NJ will escape the heaviest event totals.  Guidance has been targeting mainly along and east of I95 for max totals.  Will have to watch radar over the next several hours.  Key for NW NJ is where downstream convection starts to "ignite".  Hopefully it will be near or east of BWI/PHL and then lift and/or train NE leaving NW NJ with just more frontal related rainfall but still with heavy downpours.  Can deal with 1 or 2" out this way but 3-5" totals not good for this area.  Still very wet out my way.  Sitting at 5.5" for August to date here.

WPC discussion heavy rainfall potential:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html

These constant heavy rain threats are becoming rather annoying I have to say.  Too much now.  Hoping for an under performer.

Picked up .49" rainfall last 24 hours.  August up to 5.47" here.  

Everything green as could be.  I honestly don't think I've watered anything but some flowers in pots that are in full sun since late May.  Have not had to water the lawn at all since late May.  If we can just have modest rains for the next 6 weeks or so to wrap up the growing season that would be great.  Daylight getting noticeably shorter now both morning and evening.  Will start to drop off quickly as we get into early September.  While not over by any means Summer is on the run.

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sun-filled August day with a light breeze and low humidity:

Don, That first picture is stunning!  Well done!

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Total whiff by models, but testament to just how hostile the basin is with El Niño roaring 

And totally expected.  Plume after plume of dust, a lot of subsidence and shear to knock back even the most robust looking wave that rolls of Africa.  Caribbean looks to be shut down for at least the next 2-3 weeks and likely longer. Hard to imagine any meaningful ACE getting racked up in that area.  Anything of note I think will have to come out of the SW Atlantic or maybe the Gulf.  CSU ACE of 50 is starting to look generous.  Even with peak Climo coming into view if we don't see some relaxation in the hostile atmospheric conditions I would not expect much.  We'll see what things look like as we move into September but August looks to remain very quiet.  

Nice summary from NJ Climate Office for July 2026.

Lots of rain!  Sadly a preliminary count of 33 NJ weather related fatalities.  

https://www.njweather.org/articles/july-2026-recap

Watch for locally heavy rainfall totals later Sunday into Sunday evening.

North Fork of L.I. got a local drenching last night.

Picked up another .42" of rainfall from an overnight T-Shower.  Loud thunder and a burst of heavy rain.  No wind and just a flash or two of lightning.  Total rainfall month so far: 4.98".

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

High Dewpoints returning by Sunday

Gotta keep an eye on this.  Depending on synoptic setup could be local drenchers which many places don't need or want.

Local flooding threat.

Picked up 1.35" rainfall from yesterday's T-Storm.  

Total over the last 7 days 4.34".  

Since 6/1/26: 18.84"

Since 7/1/26: 13.33"

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Worst rain ive seen since hurricane floyd. Rockland county is an absolute disaster.

Any rainfall estimates coming in from that area?

Back home.  Eyeballing the gauge looks like 1.25-1.5”.  Will confirm in the morning.

Some moderate road flooding in spots coming up Sussex Tpk.

1 hour ago, BoulderWX said:

Had some heavy rain and thunder and lightning in Morristown. Nothing crazy like previous storms thankfully. 

Drove through there earlier.  Was pretty wicked around the Green.

Friend in Pittstown hit hard.  Power out.

Driving through Morristown.  Like the end of days here.  Bolts of CTG lightning.  Gushing rain and winds to 40-45 mph.  Pulled into a parking lot route home is tree lined and not taking any chances.  Wet ground and wind not a good combo.