MANDA

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I wonder how they survive this time of year-nothing to eat and snow covering what little there is 

Got lots of Arborvitae shrubs in my neighborhood that have offered a good supply of food this winter.  Many have been totally eaten and will never come back.  Not sure why people plant those shrubs in particular with the deer population being what it is.  It is like fine dining to them.

8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

My relatives from down south, you know, Long Island, get all excited when they see them here. I tell them that they are long legged rats that eat everything, leaving raisinetes everywhere. 

ok...I think I will put my bagel and coffee off to the side for a while.  

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

upton has rain and mid 40's later next week-been a long time since we've seen that on a forecast

Bring it !  Please!

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

For most of our forum we’re in moderate drought and severe further SW in the DC area. We’ll definitely be in severe by mid to late spring without a turnaround. 

Without a significant turnaround during March and April can foresee water restrictions coming for the Summer season.

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ECMWF-AIFS is moving into it s high-skill range, where it continues to outperform the non-AI guidance. It continues to show very little prospect for the kind of occasional snowy solution that has popped up from time to time on some of the guidance. At 500 mb, its map tells the story about the low probability of phasing. The northern energy is well in front of the southern energy. This limits the risk of interaction, much less phasing.

Not surprisingly, the other guidance now appears to be in line with the AIFS, with none showing a snowy solution for the NYC area. If one looks at the EPS ensembles, 16% showed 6" or more snow and fewer than 6% of members  showed 10" or more snow during the 2/12 0z cycle vs. the respective 22% and 12% during the 2/11 0z cycle (in which the operational ECMWF showed a phased solution).

Although it's premature to suggest that precipitation, should it arrive, cannot start as a little snow, sleet or mixed precipitation, the idea of a phased solution with significant snowfall appears unlikely. As has been the case much of this winter, should that outcome verify, the ECMWF-AIFS will again have led the way at an impressive lead time.

Finally, the ECMWF-AIFS map 36 hours later shows a distinct failure to phase.

In addition to all you have shown those maps clearly show significant changes in the pattern than what we have been in for the last 4-6 weeks.  PV has retreated into north central Canada with the coldest of the air trapped underneath it.  More energy coming into the west coast.  High latitude blocking has faded.  Western ridge has shifted west to western Alaska.  STJ looks a little more pronounced.  Looks like our weather pattern here will be more northern stream dominated over the next week or so.  We'll be on the southern fringe of cooler Canadian air and northern fringe of milder air moving eastward from the central U.S.  Hard to envision any meaningful snow over the next 7 to maybe 10 days.

11 minutes ago, Picard said:

Flurries have developed here.

Same here.

After steadily increasing QPF amounts over the least several issuance's the latest WPC 7 day QPF has been notable decreased.

This has been an ongoing trend.  Systems that offered promise in the longer range just dwindle as we get closer.  I'm not even looking for snow at this point.  I just want some rain.

Two interesting videos:

https://x.com/i/status/2020641229676089405

https://x.com/i/status/2020626195717714010

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here are the 16-day stretches with mean temperatures below 20° beginning with Winter 1975-76. I haven't added 2025-26, because the value isn't final, but it will come in between 19.7° and 19.9°.

Thanks.  I knew January 77 had to be on the list.  Late 70’s into early 80’s had some solid cold.  Hard to believe it took from 82 until now to add to the list.

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20°. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

Don, what would be the one before 1982?  Just wondering.

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some photos from this morning. 

 

Great photos Don. Thanks!

Looks like southern RI and locations NE of Boston take the prize with snow totals last 24 hours.

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the temperatures will begin to moderate in the East, the Northeast looks like it will experience a slower warm up relative to other areas. It also appears the drier pattern will continue over the next week to perhaps 10 days. So mostly weaker sheared out systems in the near term with the very fast flow. 
 

Pretty much been this way starting back in late November.   NE last to get in on any warmup and also dry.  NE has really hung tough with the cold this winter season.

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Can't wait for mud, potholes, water main breaks and maybe even ice jams. I just hope the warm up is gradual to minimize all that. 

Looks gradual enough as of now.

51 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

I equate Central Park's low of 3 this morning to last June's high of 99. These two temperatures are about the absolute maximums temperatures that Central Park can reach in today's climate!

Would agree on the 3 but a properly situated temperature sensor would make quick work of the 99 with the right synoptic situation.  They need to move that sensor back to the castle if they want the readings to be more representative of temperatures in the city proper.

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

And yet didn’t come close to the all time records.
 

To me we've just seen the new rock bottom in temps for this part of the world.

The antecedent significant cold was one ingredient. The second being that this airmass had no mitigating factors on its way to NY.

The only offset was that it originated over a much warmer 70N+…

Have to agree with you.  Had everything you mentioned plus snow cover locally.  Absolutely correct about no mitigating factors on the way into the metro. Snow cover along the route, rapid movement southward and a very favorable air mass trajectory. If NYC didn't hit zero with this not sure what it would take to get there at this point.  I wasn't expecting it to hit zero but was kind of still rooting for it.  Have to wonder if the Arctic front had moved through during the mid afternoon instead of around daybreak if NYC could have squeezed another 2-3 degrees out of it.

Overnight low of -3.  Currently-1.

Winds still howling.

I am ready to move on.

The week ahead looks dry with moderating cold.  No torch but a least closer to normal by the end of the week.  The current snow pack is frozen solid and the mounds will be around for weeks to come out this way.

Winds still howling.  Temperature holding between -0.2 and +0.2 since around 7pm.  

22 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Today was not a fun day to deliver the mail. Gloves and handwarmers for the win

As they say…thanks for your service.  Not an easy job.  Especially for those that deliver the mail on foot.

49 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

For those who are complaining about the cold try working on a barge or on the dock on the Hudson today. Today my men were on the dock for 45 min trying to tie up the barge and offload to it. Unfortunately with the strong winds and ice the vessel had trouble getting close enough to the dock. Eventually they were successful.


.

Agree.  Dock workers or anyone who has to work outside in this.  Terrible.  I could never do it.

The coldest air at 850 is just about over us now.  With the wind persisting overnight and the coldest of the air overhead currently (at least from the city on westward) I would not be surprised to see temperatures bottom out around mid night and then hold steady or rise slightly before daybreak. CAV is just about peaking now.  Temperatures across NY southern tier (BGM area) are holding rather steady last few hours.   Maybe another 2-4 degree drop from the city west and another 3-5 across LI.

An even 0 here right now (7:00 p.m.) and house is still creaking from the high winds here on top of the hill.

Currently 1.5 here with winds still gusting 25-35 mph.

Just too bad that s/w didn't rotate off the coast about 100 or so miles further south and start to go negative.  That surface low would have delivered the goods to this entire sub forum.  Another near miss of something really good!  So close.

Had some light snow for a couple of hours last evening in the hours before mid-night. Woke up at 4:00 this morning to near blizzard conditions in a heavy snow squall as the Arctic front was moving through. Temperature was 21 degrees. Not sure exactly how long that squall lasted. Woke up again at 7:00 and winds were howling and the temperature had fallen to 7 degrees. Currently 5 degrees.  Melted total in the the cylinder was .03", that was the easy part of the observation. Snowfall was very difficult to measure with the howling winds and the light fluffy snow. New snow was blown clear in some spots.  Found a more sheltered location on the south side of the house and .70" was best measurement.  Snow still blowing off rooftops and it looks and feels like the Arctic tundra out there.  Fitting way to bring this prolonged bitter cold period to an end.  Moderation is coming for next week....still cold though, no torch.

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

8PM (1978): Temperature dropped.  Viz did too:

METAR KISP 070056Z 00025G38KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV000 M04/M04 A2934 RMK SLP936

What was ISP total from the storm?