MANDA

1.2" yesterday. 

Two day total = 1.82"

Three day total = 2.21".

Rainfall yesterday was 1.2".  Three day event total = 2.21".

More heavy rain approaching my area from the west.

Pouring here with winds gusting to about 25 mph. Rain pelting against the house.

Based on radar it is not going to last long but right now it is heavy.

Just posting story link here since others have posted that they have seen the drones.  I've not seen any.

Interesting.  Seems far beyond just hobbyist drone flyers.  Not sure what is up with so many flying around.

Feel free to remove if too far off topic.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14181799/drones-new-jersey-state-emergency-ufo-ocean-sighting.html

Skinny "squall line" about ready to push through my area.  Expecting some heavier rain and some gusty winds.

.62" as of 8am.  Two day total = 1.01".  Winds minimal.  A few gusts to 20-25 mph. 

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Would you be shocked if the EPS looks absolutely nothing at all like that operational run? 

Nope.  Wouldn't be shocked either if the next op model cycle looked nothing like the current one.

10 day OP runs are bad enough and now we have added the EURO going out to 15 days along with the GFS.  Pure fantasy.  I'm all for pushing the limits of science but these 10 and 15 day op runs are essentially useless.  The ensembles are better but even they flip from cycle to cycle a lot of the time.

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like we are on our way to the same old crap Decembers we have come accustomed to recently. Keep expectations low for this winter. Hopefully we get a favorable period in January. 

Key here is "keep your expectations low"

Not saying there can't be a few surprises but I'm not seeing anything right now that is offering a prolonged BN temperature regime or a  favorable pattern for east coast snowstorms.  Again, a few well timed systems with cold air could certainly deliver.  Overall though the pattern is looking similar to the last several winters.

Had .39" here last 24 hours.  Just about what I was expecting.  #happy

Well the latest Euro 360 is on the crack pipe.  Let's watch this day by day and see where it goes.  Verbatim would be very cold and potentially stormy Christmas holiday period.  I'll take the under at this point.  

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this trend is bringing strong southerly winds and convection in play for us

Westward shifts like clockwork.

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Personally I'm not rooting for a historic cold outbreak. I just want it cold enough to snow, even if only by a degree.

Subzero cold? I worry about my pipes.

 

In addition to frozen pipes historic cold is often dry, granted historic cold can sometimes end with something big but that is the exception rather than the rule.   Modest cold with a good storm track will be a win around here.

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wet week on tap

Will be interesting to see if heavier totals back west in future model runs.  Certainly that has been the trend (excluding the current dry pattern of the last 2 months) over the past two years, for things to trend west.  Especially on the GFS.

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know you were joking, but that strong aleutian low is definitely not la nina. Something else is driving this. 

yes, was really just joking about how ugly it looked. 

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

is the La Niña in the room with us?

In the room?  Looks more like it has taken over the house.

Ugly.

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course DT is going for another cold/snowy winter in the east. This is how many in a row he’s done this now? 10? Then if it’s obvious that it’s not going to work out, he will completely bail on his forecast, say he miscalculated something and viciously attack anyone who disagrees with him….curse them out on twitter, demean them, wish cancer and covid on them. It’s the same old routine with him every winter

Nasty, twisted guy and I NEVER post stuff like this but he is just nasty in addition to the the fact that he is seldom right about anything.

12 hours ago, Monty said:

What's Cioffi up to these days? He was the backup to Alan Kasper on 1015 growing up, and is a better forecaster than Dan Zarrow, but I haven't heard much from him. 

Living in Georgia and doing his podcast thing.  Great forecaster.

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

DT was on the Joe Cioffi show this evening talking about the pattern. He loves a big change to colder and snowier at the end of this month and next month .

https://www.youtube.com/live/mWL0xRd1dSs?si=Yh5-ifZrT0JFeNSx

Surprised Joe would stoop so low.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Maybe the record SSTs in the Gulf can help boost the PWAT plume streaming north for some much needed rainfall next week. Plus a slightly stronger WAR could shift the storm track further west over time so the max totals are over the area instead of just to the East. We just don’t want too far a shift west since we really need the rain.

Drought Monitor issued today show virtually no change even with the rainfall we have had so yeah, we do need the rain!

 

Total here .8".    Nice moderate to borderline heavy burst about 8:30.  Dropped .20" in about 5 minutes.

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Just got to work you, would think a blizzard is inbound, they literally salted the entire parking lot with massive amount of salt.

Same thing around here.  It is nuts.  Never used to be this way.

I get it if you want to put some salt down but several places as of late this afternoon were literally dumping it.  I came out of an office building and had to do a double take to realize what was on the ground.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We used to get highs in the teens in December 

That was then.  This is now.  Those days are gone for the foreseeable future.

Calm winds with heavy frost here, low of 20.

Some impressive numbers from the spots that radiate well. 

3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The misses reports snow at the homestead. 

Had a "burst" of heavier flurries here about 45 minutes ago.  Was just starting to whiten the deck and the flurries ended.