MANDA

Sure hope I can cash in later because in this initial round of storms I got skunked.  Missed some good stuff just to my NW.

Been on the losing end of late around here.

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This should be the last of the 100° heat for a while as a big +PNA is set to dominate for the next 10 days.

 

Trof position might be such that we still run above normal and on the humid side.  Might also give us AN precip.  

Nice in the nations mid-section though!

Well, we are halfway through meteorological Summer.  Won't be long before we are playing kick the "Canadian cold" can.  Hope not but we'll see.

40 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Look at this photo I found on Wikimedia dated May 24, 2024. This is absolutely absurd. Who was the decisionmaker that identified this as an appropriate location to install the ASOS?  It doesn't comply with any siting standards. Most backyard thermometers are more reliably sited than this.

Look at the rain gauge in the back right.  You have to believe the tree canopy is interfering with that as well.  What a joke.

My buddy out near Pittstown / Frenchtown reporting numerous trees down.

Not a drop up my way.

22 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

GFS most expansion of the Atlantic ridge and maintains the pattern of EC ridging.Ridge pushing into the Plains/CAn 

 

Continuing large and very expansive Atlantic ridge.  Could make for long low trackers with fewer safe out to sea re-curvatures.

4 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

July 15th 1995...It was heat that could kill you and it did. Many in Chicago died from that heatwave. It peaked here on July 15th..Hottest day I could ever remember.

I believe Heat Index readings soared to 120 to near 130 across parts of the Illinois / Wisconsin area.  Heat index values around here were near 115 for a time if I remember correctly.  Might be off by a little high or low but it was just stiflingly hot.  Just don't remember anything like that since, although we probably came close on occasion I guess.

.45" here.  Better than nothing but after a week of waiting and with near record PW I am disappointed.

A more concentrated area of rainfall is ongoing over Southern VA and Eastern NC.  It is moving north.  Maybe that is what NWS/WPC is thinking with Flood Watches and Excessive outlook.  Radar looks unimpressive for most over the next several hours except SE NJ which has been soaked already today.

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

going to be a big bust for areas well north and west that looked to jackpot a day or two ago. Not saying ukie is right but then trend is for the heaviest amounts along the I95 corridor on eastward

I'm starting to brace myself for under 1".  Will see what radar looks like this evening and go from there but trend has been for along I-95 and south and east of there.

Water vapor loop shows nice south to north transport of tropical moisture.

Pretty rare to see flow almost straight south to north.  Most places should get some needed rains but some places will get drenched with training.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop180w.html

Latest from WPC.

Impressive overall pattern.  Some spots could see 3"+ amounts.

Received .07" rainfall last night with fizzling T-storms.

Pretty pleasant this morning with lower DP's and a gusty breeze.

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

FWN is currently in 1st place for highest average daily average maximum dew point in July at 71.1°.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=FWN&season=jul&varname=dwpf&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

Sussex County of all places.  Just goes to show how impressive the high DP's have been.

So close and yet so far.  Just missed a nice shower to my south last evening.  Still optimistic for some decent totals before the end of the week.

1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said:

91/74; according to the Misses, we lost power at home.

Apparently we are also under a severe thunderstorm watch for that cluster rolling up from Frenchtown. 

Looks aimed at your area.  Hope you can get enough rainfall to make it worthwhile and not just add to the humidity for no good reason.

Warm first 6 months of 2024.

https://www.njweather.org/content/scorching-june-2024-and-january–june-recaps

Gotta wonder when our next below normal month will be.  Sure does not look like July or August!

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Separate storm now on Saturday, no rain from beryl 

Beryl remnants were never going to give us much of anything. 

Going to be some tough days ahead in the power outage areas for those that do not have generators.  Heat and humidity will return and from the scope of the outages some places could be without power for a week, hopefully not longer than that in spots.

Can't imagine living in those conditions without a/c. 

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The bermuda high is pushing west so the ring of fire is N and W

Yep, pushes too far west and we will be left on the drier side.  Latest WPC still rather wet from city west into NJ.  Central L.I. on eastward not so much.  Will need another day or two to see how this plays out.  Seems overall though the guidance has been trending to push the wettest area to the left.  Not rooting for flooding rains but I'd just like an inch or so between now and Friday night to keep things watered.  I should be able to get it out this way.

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And then you have 12z Euro which is very dry. Very little rain all next week on the Euro. Maybe a compromise between the dry Euro and wet GFS will happen. With all the humidity, I would think there would be at least scattered downpours with some areas getting 1 to 2 inches of rain. 

Latest from WPC.  Much will depend on where the western extent of the offshore ridge sets up.  Too far west and we're much drier area wide.

I am riding local 5" amounts over parts of NJ at this time.  L.I. has best chances of seeing only light amounts.

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Too much of a good thing.  Doubt totals that heavy will be that widespread but certainly could see some local totals of 5-7" over the next 7 days.  I'd be happy with an inch over the next week!

39 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you are so pessimistic i see the big picture every day that passes gets us closer to cool fall weather..

With that logic every day that passes gets us one day closer to dead.

Live for the day dude, tomorrow could be just a rumor.

28 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this should have fun dewpoints

Pattern for the upcoming week looks to support a ribbon of high dewpoint air moving from Texas to the Lakes with Beryl remnants along with some locally heavy rainfall.  Another swath of high dewpoint air along the east coast around very anomalous Bermuda high.  That also could yield locally heavy rainfall.  In between the two a relative "drier" swath over the Ohio Valley.  Going to be soupy times ahead along the east coast for sure.

Some torrential downpours at times last night and early this morning.  The one this morning had loud thunder and some bright lightning flashes.  Rain was torrential but was short lived.  Two day total so far = .75".  Just enough but not too much.  Perfect!  Level 10 on the swampy scale out there this morning.