MANDA

Light snow and a gusty wind ongoing.  Total measurement at 8am was 3.9".  Very elevation dependent.  Next to nothing down the hill less than 1-2 miles from here.  I would have had a higher total but the heaviest band shifted north for a while overnight.

I knew their would be surprises up in Sussex County.  This was a highly dynamic and anomalous situation surface and aloft.  Upper lows like this often deliver the goods for someone.  Catskills were a given although even there more than I would have thought.  Sussex County high ground was ripe for a surprise.

Edit:  Wow at that High Point OB!

Light snow falling.  Eyeballing about 2”.  Sticking to everything.  Plow just came through.  

Deck getting coated.  

32.9

Now 34 degrees.  Short video.

34.5 and wet flakes mixing in with the rain.

Down to 36.  Winds gusting to about 25 mph.  Has been a steady drop in temps from 44 degrees about 2:00 earlier this afternoon.

My weather app is excited.  

Down to 38 here.

24 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Advisory not a Watch.

Yes, sorry.  My mistake.  Fixed it.

Advisory now posted for NW NJ counties. 

Thinking 1 to maybe 3" especially non paved surfaces at my location just a tad above 1000'.

Great satellite presentation this morning.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_NE/loop30v.html

Synoptic setup with this event next 24-36 hours is really unique surface and aloft.  Really interesting setup.

Track of upper level low means some surprises are certainly possible in terms of snowfall.

Received .95" of very welcome rainfall here overnight. 

Nice November day out there today!  Love it.

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

GFS

 

Yeah, the same model that 24 hours ago had me getting 14-18" of snow in the next 24-36 hours. 

GFS is a follower....not a leader.

Even the leaders of years past are not doing well past 3-5 days lately.

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Wet run through day 10 with 3-5 inches across much of the Northeast.

Looks like we are entering a wetter pattern and the persistent dryness will yield to a pattern with more frequent precipitation!

What a beautiful day!  Heavy overcast, chilly temperatures, light breeze and a soaking rain with wind on the way.  Been waiting months for a day(s) like this! 

Any snow will be a bonus.  I think I do better at my location than what Mt. Holly is going with at the moment.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Top 5 warmest fall across the entire region.

 

I'm guessing a top 5 driest as well?  Depending on what happens over the next 3-4 days.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It would be great if the new Euro extended delivers on the multiple rainfall chances right into early December.

 

 

 

I don't even care that it is rain and not snow that is modeled.  Will take every drop and be happy.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Great to see the models coming in wetter. This will be one of the strongest upper lows in the East this time of year. Hopefully, the is the first step toward a much wetter pattern as we head into December. 
 

 

First time in a very long time that the southeast ridge has not fought back to screw things up and has allowed a northern stream s/w to dig far enough south and deliver the goods.  Hopefully a good sign of things to come but I'm not going to get carried away just yet.  I will take the upcoming rain and thoroughly enjoy it.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Shit!  The heaviest is south and east of me !  

Said yesterday much will depend on track of upper level low and development (If any) of a triple point surface feature.  That remains true this morning.  Lots off room here for just frontal passage type rains.  Trends today and tomorrow will be key.

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Proximity to upper low and any triple point is key to who gets what and how much.  Still time for adjustments positive or negative.

Anything less than .50" will be a huge disappointment.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Finally

I have been smelling smoke during the week here in Brooklyn. 

All the grass have been turning brown. Very bad.

In addition to all the brown grass it is disheartening to drive by any of the local reservoirs around here.  They are low and getting lower.

Lowest I have seen in a long time.

15 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (1993)  - latest 80 degree reading in EWR
NYC: 80 (1993) - latest 80 degree reading at NYC
LGA: 80 (1993)  - latest 80 degree reading in LGA
JFK: 77 (1993)


Lows: 

EWR: 18 (1933)
NYC: 20 (1967)
LGA: 22 (1967)
JFK: 20 (1967)

Historical:

 

1964 - With the help of a fresh three inch cover of snow, the temperature at Ely, NV, dipped to 15 degrees below zero to establish an all-time record low for the month of November. That record of -15 degrees was later equalled on the 19th of November in 1985. (The Weather Channel)

1974 - A storm produced 15 inches of snow at the Buffalo, NY, airport, and 30 inches on the south shore of Lake Erie. (David Ludlum)

1986 - An early season cold wave set more than 200 records from the northwestern U.S. to the east coast over a seven day period. For some places it proved to be the coldest weather of the winter season. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - The first major snowstorm of the season hit the Southern and Central Rockies, producing 12 inches at the Brian Head ski resort in Utah overnight. Strong and gusty winds associated with the storm reached 52 mph at Ruidoso NM. In the eastern U.S., the temperature at Washington D.C. soared to 68 degrees, just three days after being buried under more than a foot of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1987: On November 15 and 16, intense thunderstorms rumbled through the South-Central US producing 49 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi during a 34 hour period. Of the 49 tornadoes, four were F3, 12 were F2, 27 were F1, and 6 were F0. These severe storms caused 11 deaths and 303 injuries. This storm system also brought heavy rain to central Louisiana where five stations recorded over 10 inches in 24 hours. The highest amount was 14.22 inches at Olla on the 16.

1988 - A massive storm produced snow and gusty winds in the western U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Show Low AZ, and Donner Summit, located in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, was buried under 23 inches of snow. Heavy rain soaked parts of California, with 3.19 inches reported at Blue Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed east of the Rockies. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as New England, and readings in the 80s were reported across the southeast quarter of the nation. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second time in the month Dallas/Fort Worth TX equalled their record for November with an afternoon high of 89 degrees. The high of 91 degrees at Waco TX was their warmest of record for so late in the season. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Wyoming overnight, with a foot of snow reported at Cody, and ten inches at Yellowstone Park. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1996: An intense, lake effect snow event came to an end over western New York, northeastern Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. Chardon, Ohio was buried under 68.9 of snow over a six-day period. Edinboro, Pennsylvania checked in with 54.8 inches. 18.5 inches blanketed Cleveland, Ohio and 42 inches fell at Sherman, New York.

That 1989 warm surge was followed by a bitter cold December.  Rest of the winter was a relative dud.  Remember that December cold well.

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro does give most of the area a nice half inch to inch soaking Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with some spots getting more than that. Obviously we would be thrilled with that at this point. 

Major trof buckling into the Ohio Valley and this is about a week away so details to be worked out but model support there for 1"+ rainfall if things evolve favorably.  First test of the Fall / Winter season if we are going to be playing Kick the Can again this season on colder and storminess.