MANDA

Mt. Arlington NJ.

Moderate snow at 8am obs time.

Temperature 20.7.

Storm total and snow depth so far 10.5".

Near blizzard conditions at times.

Putting aside the snow maps for a moment.  All guidance has been consistent last 3-4 runs at least with very robust QPF.

Even allowing for it being a bit overdone where max qpf can sync up with best ratios and remain all snow that alone suggests some

spots see in excess of 20".    Final "jackpot totals" will depend on where banding sits and pivots.  Keep in mind...what goes up must come down

so you want to be in the band because the subsidence on either side will keep your totals lower.

Some favored spot can see 24-30" and I would not be surprised.  Best chance I think is north of 78 and west of 287.

just for S***s and Giggles

snowfall and QPF entire event

18Z Euro is locked and loaded !

Snow map through 02Z Tuesday

Hi Walt-

So happy to have you on these forums.  Big follower of you from your KBOX and KPHI days.

Great input and insight.  Always appreciated.

17 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Approaching  .8" here in Vernon @ elevation of 1217' with very light snow falling . Temp 27.5

Thanks for the report from Sussex County high ground.  Might not see many obs of 1"+ from this event.

Really thought some 2-3" amounts would of shown up around your area of Sussex.

Just took measurement.  Total 1".  Everything covered including roads in my little traveled neighborhood.

Temperature currently 26 with some light freezing drizzle.

Event performed pretty much as expected along and north of I78.  I was expecting some 2" to even a bit more over the higher terrain of

Sussex but waiting to see some reports - nothing that I've seen so far of 1"+.

12:50 - burst of moderate snow ongoing.  Had a brief bust mid morning as well.

1/2" on the ground.  Sticking to everything.  Current temp 27.1.  Been holding

between 26 and 27 since early morning.  Based on radar will becoming to an end

at least for a while in the next 30 min.

Had .95" last 24 hours.  Looks like back to our regularly scheduled program for this week with not much going on

next 5-7 days.  Still hopeful last week of month can deliver at least some snow and perhaps a notable cold shot.

Chances of significant snow event (>6") not looking likely at this point.

NWS PHI mentions significant icing possible along and north of Rt 78 in afternoon AFD.

If trends on EURO persist this could be real possibility.

Worth watching out for.

Although likely overdone EURO shows significant amount of freezing rain over NNJ, especially inland.  Did pretty well with ZR on last event, although a bit overdone.

Surface temps solidly below freezing for long duration so threat of significant icing, up to 1/2" is possibility.  Lets hope is more IP than ZR.  Half inch ice accretion is significant

and can bring down tree limbs and power lines.

Euro currently showing 1/4 - 1/2 amounts NNJ with some locally higher amounts Sussex County.  Thinking the 1"+ QPF is likely also overdone so would expect ZR totals to be near lower end

of EURO range.

This post in reference to Monday late afternoon into Tuesday event.  The Sunday night into early Monday event looks insignificant for metro NYC.

Think the main thing to take away from EPS this afternoon is that there is the threat of storm along the east coast in about a week.

Even stronger signal for another bitter cold arctic outbreak by Sunday into last week of January and perhaps into first week February.

Much higher confidence in that than any storm details at this point...overall pattern on latest eps can deliver the goods as far as extreme

cold in concerned.

14 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The skill is not in the snow maps. 

Trust me I know that.  But I was just trying to put it in simple terms for others.  If your comment above applies to snow maps then it would certainly apply to your original post about individual members being "very deep".  The individual members and individual members snow totals are directly related. 

Looking at the 500 EPS mean also supports the lack of snow on the individual member maps.  First vort is allowed to escape east (no phasing) while deeper arctic s/w dives into and through the mid-west.

All of this is not really worth discussing since as I said the op and the eps will change many times between now and next Tuesday my only point was that looking at this one single run of the eps it was not very encouraging.  Can almost guarantee the 00Z op / eps will have a different solution since we are 7-8 days away.

7 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The EPS looks good , it`s cold with some very deep members 

The EPS members don't look that encouraging to me as of now.  Granted they can and will change in the days ahead but 12z 01/21 EPS show 6 out of 51 members giving CP 6"+  (3 of the six give 8-12" and the other 3 are right around 6) and the majority of the other 45 + the control give CP between a coating and 3" over the next 10 days (thru 12Z 1/31) that is not encouraging signal as of right now.

Like I said things are likely to change several times over the next week but taking this run of the EPS at face value not much to write home about.

Switched to freezing rain about 10:45.  Had 2.5" snow before changeover.

Currently moderate freezing rain and 30.2 degrees.  Just on the edge of

stark temperature gradient.  Just 15-20 miles to my northwest temperatures are in

the low 20's with freezing rain.  Starting to think ZR potential might of been underestimated by some

over NW NJ, especially Sussex county.  Tree and power line issues could big problem come daybreak.

See no obvious reason at the moment for temperatures to spike north of 80 and west of 287.

Temperatures here have been very steady last few hours.  I hope the worst of the ZR stays to my NW.

Don't want to be w/o heat with the coming cold.  Already some decent icicles forming on deck railing.

8:00

27 degrees with light to occasionally moderate snow

.50" over last hour or so.

52 minutes ago, Jersey Devil said:

You are both wrong.... the milkbox was for keeping the snakes that you caught that your mom wouldn't let you bring in the house...

LOL too funny.  I remember once I put an old screen over the box to "store" my collected grasshoppers.

Won't go off topic anymore but I'd forgotten about that memory as well.

Back in the day, that is what kids did.  Came home from school, changed into play clothes and went outside and did stuff.

In the summer you went out after dinner played with your friends and came home when the street lights came on.

Technology is a great thing but I'm glad I was a kid in the mid 60's - mid 70's....kids today miss out on alot.

Smart phones, ipads and play dates just are not the same.

Won't go off topic anymore....after much time and energy expended this week it feels like one of those busted events

from when I was a kid when a Winter Storm Warning would be downgraded to a Travelers Advisory....slammed a few weather radios up in my day.

25 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

I am going on 55 yrs old and I can not ever remember a storm with arctic, low dew air banked just to our NW, N and over NNE, where a storm angling up from the SW came across PA - NNJ and rode across LI. Until this shows me it can happen, I will continue to call BS. The NW side has been eroding slowly SE the past few hours instead of blossoming out like a storm with a northerly track would feature. I will gladly eat humble pie tomorrow if this does not correct South. Not being a weenie. Just going by what I have seen happen all my life since I sat on a metal milk box on my front stoop in Brooklyn in the 1970s watching cirrus and wind direction to predict the weather days in advance at the tender age of 10.

Wow, a memory I had forgotten all about.  Also in mid 50's and I did the same thing.  Bundled up and sat on the metal milk box waiting for the clouds to move in and the first flakes to fall.

Life was simpler...no internet, you had to rely on the evening news, Accuweather discussions at 35 min after the hour,  a Radio Shack weather cube and the power of observation to try and figure out what was happening.  I'll bet 75% of the people on this board don't know what a milk box was used for.

Thanks for the memory!