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MANDA

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Posts posted by MANDA

  1. X has been smoldering for last few days.  Expecting it will go to four alarms later this morning.  
     

    Finally something of substance to track.  Would like to see these trends continue over the weekend.  Looks promising but final outcome TBD.  I love the look from 00z modeling.   No denying it has potential.  Hopefully we have this look from 12Z Sunday runs as we move into the mid range period.

    Would love to see a good cold, windy and widespread 12”+ event forum wide!

    • Like 2
  2. 11 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

    I think every snow event I have had this season has been at night. Anyone else notice that ?


    .

    Pretty much! 

    Most of them have started after dark and ended before or just after sunrise.  There were 1 or 2 exceptions, I think.

     

    • Like 1
  3. 6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

    Wish I knew how to compress images. Dad sent a pic, he lives northwest of Lexington, VA and had 10” at 5:00; he’s over a foot now. 

    He has bested my largest storm total this season by 100%!

    • Like 2
  4. 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

    For reference, clusters for New York City's 6" or greater snowstorms during the second half of February since 1950:

    image.png.4bf4ca218ca4e56ebccde45e81224cb7.png

    With shortening wave lengths, it is perhaps not surprising that the biggest storms have featured a deep trough extending from just off Pacific Northwest into the Gulf of Alaska.

    Great stuff.  Thanks.

    • Like 2
  5. 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

    Either the Euro or NAM will end up correct, both show no precip here til 01Z but the Euro goes insane from about 0130-0330Z with like 2-3 inches of snow in that period.  The NAM has little in here til 02Z or so and its sleet right away

    We’ll know soon enough who the winner is.  Interesting stuff.

    • Like 1
  6. 16 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

    34.4" as we speak. Still have  snow/sleet pack from yesterday. Everything is white and frozen solid. Currently 24°

    Sitting at 25.4" here. 

    11/22-23/24 = largest event at 6.5".

    1/20/25 = 6.1"

    12/21/24 = 5.2"

    Total 17.8" from those 3 events.  The remaining 7.6" all came from 9 additional events that left 1.5" or less.

    • Like 1
  7. 4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    Today is a great example of how much of a change can occur with an ensemble mean from 360 hrs to 240hrs. The biggest change at day 10 is the much deeper trough digging into the West around Valentine’s Day. So any speculation based on the present 360 hr run is going to look different when it gets to 240 then 120 and 0 hrs. This is why you want to maximize opportunities closer in since you don’t know what the pattern is going to look like from day 10 and beyond. 

    New run

    IMG_2971.thumb.png.5244cb729657600f240ffd0a514826b2.png
     

    Old run

    IMG_2973.thumb.png.4e9097d1aa0b93aa9b8df2a26b238cb3.png

     

    To say there are some substantial differences on those two maps might be an understatement.

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