MANDA

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under brilliant sunshine, the temperature topped out in the middle 60s across parts of the region.

The warmth will peak tomorrow through Friday with the temperature rising into the middle and upper 60s in the New York City area and middle and perhaps upper 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month.

There is good consensus on the guidance that a deep trough will likely develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was -5.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.335 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).

 

3.7 above....do I hear 4.0....

Has been rising as the month progresses as have most of the previous months.

Where March finishes will depend on how "chilly" and for how long it lasts next week.

I think a 4.0 or a little higher finish is quite possible.

Beautiful day today....If not going to snow I'll take this over cool, damp and rainy anytime.

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of the first indications how cold 76-77 was going to be was NYC getting down to 50° at the end of August. Then the 29° in October. So a tie of the all-time monthly minimum in August and 2nd coldest in October. Then single digits during the first week of December. None of which has been able to be replicated since then. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1986	50	0
-	1982	50	0
-	1976	50	0
-	1965	50	0
-	1885	50	0
2	1923	51	0
-	1912	51	0
-	1887	51	0
3	1940	52	0
-	1934	52	0
-	1895	52	0
-	1890	52	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1936	28	0
2	1976	29	0
-	1925	29	0
-	1887	29	0
-	1879	29	0
6	1940	30	0
-	1869	30	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 7	Missing Count
1	1875-12-07	8	0
2	1976-12-07	9	0
3	1926-12-07	10	0
-	1882-12-07	10	0

Amazing stats there.  I remember all 3 of those general events.  Especially the early December bitter cold.  As a young kid it seemed even more impressive than it actually was.  If memory serves there was 4-6" snow Christmas night into the early morning hours of the 26th.  Was supposed to be rain but storm tracked just far enough offshore for a 4-6" plastering.  Pattern seemed to flip and hold right after Hurricane Belle went through.

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

sounds like west of NYC it's been windier

Been ripping here all day.  Frequent gusts to 40 mph.  Peak was just before daybreak though with gusts to near 50 mph., maybe a bit more.

Finally some fresh snow cover in some places.

Winds howled here all night.  Just ripping at times.  Must have been some heavier snow squalls overnight as well.  Patches of snow scattered around and on sheltered rooftops.

Numerous snow showers here this afternoon and one legit moderate snow squall.  Temperature dropped to 34 with that.  Moderate snow was coming down horizontal with very gusty winds.  All melted on contact.

2.08" rain here last 24 hours.  Temperatures most of that time were in the upper 30's.

Another wet month in progress.  Thankfully a dry and warm week coming up.

Flood Watch posted for parts of Mt. Holly CWA.

They are going with 1-2" rainfall.

Thankfully a drier pattern once beyond this.  At least for a while.

Thought this was interesting.  La Nina seems to be coming on rather quickly as the Nino collapses.  Will be interesting to watch this over the next weeks and months.  That is some rapid cooling over a very short period of time.  Latest EURO suggesting quite a busy Atlantic hurricane season.

Possible naming frenzy but impacts to be be determined.

1.11" rainfall last 24 hours and 1.61" last 3 days.

Pretty impressive satellite picture this morning. 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_PA2/loop30v.html

Raining heavily here attm.

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a warm and wet pattern going into March as this is another example of these south based blocks linking up with the Southeast ridge. 
 

March 4-11

 

My focus now turns to actually wanting warmer weather and avoiding Spring and Summer Drought.  Winter is over and I'm ready to move on.

The howling winds from the overnight have died down but it is still kind of gusty out there. 

Event rainfall total = 1.05" (.68" and .37").

Total Precipitation for February = 2.45". 

Y.T.D. = 10.67". 

Snowfall February = 11.5". 

Snowfall for Season to date = 22.2".

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2023-2024 ranks 6th through February 28th:

Thanks Don.  My guess would have been #4 or 5.  Real close to tying at least for #5.

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Should NYC fail to see any additional measurable snow through March 10th, which appears likely right now, the odds would be tilted decidedly in favor of an unprecedented second consecutive season with less than 10" of snow. Winter 2023-24 will finish with a mean temperature of 40.5°. Of the 9 winters with a mean temperature of 39° or above, 7 (78%) saw less than 2.5" of snow from March 11 to the end of snow season (mean snowfall: 1.5"). Of the 13 winters with a mean temperature of 38° or above , 9 (64%) saw less than 2.5" of snow from March 11 to the end of snow season (mean snowfall: 2.4"). The subset of very warm winters (38° or above) that lacked snowfall through March 10 (less than 10") had mean snowfall of just 0.9" from March 11 to the end of snow season. Five of those six winters (83%) had less than 2.5". The lone exception was 1997-1998. The sample sizes are small highlighting the historic rarity of the kind of winter the region is experiencing.

Hi Don, 

What does the latest "Winter Futility Chart" look like with just 1.5 days to go before meteorological winter is finished?

Rainfall last 24 hours .66".

Snow gone except for plowed mounds.

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The HRRR has some 70° potential today down around Philly.

 

With the way the warmth over performs I'll take the over on those temps.

36 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The NE warming is alarming and completely off any chart or estimate possible. Unless something changes in this trend, winter as we know it in Adirondacks is changed. It will be non existent here.

 

No climatologist had this depth of warming in any analysis. 

This seems to be a radical regional effect of Indian/Pacific Ocean warming. Someone could write a whole thesis on why this is happening and where it is going

A reading from the book of Revelations. 

The end of days are near.  Repent. 

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Larry Cosgrove has finally given up in his new blog. He was going for a big cold/snowy winter in the east. Said he thinks it’s over

 

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/02/23/the-weather-pattern-is-looking-distinctly-springlike-except-if-you-live-in-the-west-or-in-canada/

Ya think!  Some real diehards this season.  Some are STILL hanging on for dear life thinking their forecasts will be vindicated with a cold and snowy March. 

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

.96 of an inch of rain at BDR this month-first dry month since last May/June.

Yeah, the hose finally got turned off.  We'll see where we go from here.

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Kasper was so far ahead of his time. His updates on the mixing line and radar during storm on the radio were a great source of information 

If you watch the video you will hear how he had to fight management at WCBS to a degree to educate people and not dumb things down.  You'll never see anything like that today.  Most of the time he had to do it in under 90 seconds.

He was also great at NJ101.5.  I suspected at the time he was shown the door but he confirmed that last night on the podcast.  Wake up at mid-night, drive an hour to work to start at 2am then leave for home at 10am.  For 25 YEARS!  He loved what he did.

Here is a link I had sent to NJ101.5 that I had come across years ago. 

Still have great audio clips of Alan from his TV days, Hurricane Belle, Blizzard of 78 and some other events.

https://nj1015.com/vintage-footage-of-weatherman-alan-kasper-video/

Only a few good on air Meteorologists around today, but Alan was one of a kind in his delivery.

Off topic for this thread but I'll post it here since the weather is quiet.

For those of you who were fans of Alan Kasper back in the day you will like this.

A friend of mine sent me this link so I am passing it along.  Lots of great memories.

I worked weekends at WCBS late 1983 to late 85 and Alan had left by then.  Wish I had gotten to meet him.  A Legend.

What came after him not so much.

Here is link:

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yes I have noticed a few more birds here of late.   The end is coming and probably quickly.

Same here....lots more bird activity than usual for this early in the season.  I think most I've seen at this time of year.

Wintry looking visible satellite image this morning.