MANDA

.32" here with fast moving heavier showers last evening and again around mid-night.  Warm and humid morning with just some high clouds.  First morning with a summer feel.

Consolidated area broke up into more showery pattern.  Very brief moderate downpour with a distant flash of lightning to my NW.

Meh.

Watching this batch of heavier showers over EPA.  Holding together and sliding ENE.

Moving along at about 20 mph. 

1-2 minute torrential downpour here about 6:00. 

Was very warm and muggy today as others have said.  Sign of things to come I guess.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. 

This was always a shaky evolution.  We'll see what the final results are but the super hefty event totals (3-4"+) are looking very questionable especially along and east of I95.

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I agree with you, and I see the Euro has backed off from the huge amounts and is now more in line with the other models. Most of the area is probably looking at a 2 to 4 inch rainfall for the period, which is good. We could use a big soaking. 

And it will be spread over a few days so it will soak in gradually.  I'd be very happy with 2" of rainfall spread over 3-4 days.

34 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Today's daylight  13H55M is roughly equivalent to Aug 11th.

Roughly about 35 minutes remaining on sunrise gains and sunset gains.  Slow gain on both between now and about June 21st. 

To @MJO812and @nycwinter hang in there !

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Monitoring for  5-7  Day drought buster Fri May 2-Fri May May 9... no thread from myself as yet but if it looks more likely that there will be 20% areal coverage 5+ in NYC subforum (Poconos-Catskills , to the Ct River and north of I-195, would then thread. 

Latest from WPC has shifted max totals northward (vs. 12Z issuance) from VA Piedmont northward into PA, southern tier of NY and into NJ.  This is through 00Z, Thurs. 5/8.   Will all depend on placement of upper low and speed at which it exits.  Needless to say I would be thrilled with half these totals.  Possible southeast fetch lifted into the higher terrain of PA, NJ, NYS could deliver heavy totals but still subject to how upper low evolves.

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd be happy with another inch or so

Same here!

April precipitation here was 4.76".  While a nice total most of that fell in the first 12 days.  Only an additional .74" fell from the 13th. through the 30th.  April also delivered 1.5" snow for a 2024-25 total of 30.9".

Rainfall amounts over the next week will depend greatly on final track / placement of upper low.  Slight positioning and speed differences will have big impact on who gets what.  Thinking a compromise of wet EURO / CMC vs. dry GFS is way to go at the moment as @bluewave said.

Pattern has potential to deliver or disappoint.  With the wind, low humidity and lack or rainfall over the last 2 weeks or so we could use a 1"+ soaking.

Nice time lapse of T-Storms moving through NYC early Saturday evening.

https://x.com/i/status/1916519549328896468

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I would think the first chance for any heat and I'm far from guaranteeing it then would be after about May 16th. Up until then it looks like the trough over southeast Canada, northern NE and the nw west Atlantic keeps backing up. The Euro went from developing the upper low to our west to developing it over the ne or western Atlantic. This pretty much cancels any heat chances until further notice. 

WX/PT

And if correct will also keep things on the drier side of normal on a NW flow.

41 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Anyone have the rainfall totals for the area?  I can never get the links when searching

Two day event totals.

Click to enlarge

Here is link:

https://www.cocorahs.org/

Two day total here was .60".  Not great but better than nothing.  Windy again with gusts into the mid 30's.

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Only .12 here so far, and radar doesn't look promising. Slight chance we get hit by a downpour this afternoon. If not we're going to end up with less than a quarter inch, which would be pretty disappointing. 

Little better here with .39" as of 7:30 this morning.  Doesn't look like much additional unless like you said a heavier downpour delivers.

Disappointing and not going to help the dryness to any degree. 

Temperatures look to be on the the cooler or at least seasonable side as we open May.

Hoping for a 1" soaking.  Will take .5" but will be disappointed with anything less.  Soil is dry.

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Thank you, good to see some maturity for once. We have a climate change thread. I, and others are happy to debate you over there. 

Sorry no.  I tend to not spend much time on things I have no control over.

As it is I do my part by living in NJ.  I am forced to carry bags into a grocery store and drink from paper straws.  That should help things a bit.

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder how many people know that the planet was completely uninhabitable throughout most of its history.

Yeah.  Then cow farts and industry came along and changed everything.  This area was once covered in a glacier and it melted and receded. No humans or industry then.  To each his own I guess.

No denying planet has warmed over the past 20-30 years but not human induced.  Time will tell but most of us here today could welll be on the other side of the grass by then.

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

Vibes over facts until the bitter end!!!

Sorry.  You are delusional if you think for one second humans are going to stop the climate from changing no matter what we do.  Trying to block out the sun, really? 

6 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

I can't hate this idea enough

100% agree.  The planet is what about 4.5 billion years old, give or take a half billion.  Just when exactly was the climate not changing?

To think we're going to change anything by driving around in plug in cars and silencing cow farts is absurd.  Experiments to dim sunlight?

Yeah, that will end well.

49 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Just finished the final seasonal snowfall map for the 24-25 season. I added stats to the side for the climo sites as well as a progression throughout the season which you can see on our site. Everything is updated in the 24-25 snowfall maps page. 

 

Had 30.9" at my location.  Except for 3 events of between 5 and 6" I could have done without the remaining nuisance 1-2" events. 

Nevertheless a total is a total and compared so some totals on this map even into the Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT I did well.

Cold west.  Warm east.

I'll take it !   Pattern looks dry for a while though.

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro is basically dry the next 8 days or so

Yeah, most guidance is rather dry for the next week to 10 days.  Latest Drought Monitor shows improvement but still not ideal.  We could go backwards with a renewed dry spell.  Especially if weather turns unseasonably warm.  Dryness mostly would affect ag interests initially as we head into the growing season.  For now through all is ok.  Just have to watch for any long stretches of dryness.

29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Today might be the coldest day for awhile

Likely yes.  Thankfully.

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This weather is beautiful

Have to disagree.  It sucks.  It was mostly cloudy, windy and temperatures in my part of NJ only got into the m/u 40's. 

This weather blows chunks for mid April.  The constant wind is beyond tiresome.