MANDA

1:15 and still below freezing here.  Currently 31.5.  Has been between 30.5 and 31.5 all morning.  Ice not accumulating at any kind of rapid rate but up to about .10" here.  Maybe a tad more.  Paved / concrete surfaces just wet.  Trees are drooping with the ice accumulation, nothing drastic but very noticeable. 

Have to say KUDOS to Walt.  He had this nailed for days suggesting temperatures were going to struggle today.  I will be paying closer attention to the EC-AFIS 2M temps going forward.  Great work on his part!

Light freezing rain currently.  Temp 28.  Very light glaze on pretty much everything.  New snow has been squashed down from .80” to .50”.

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Feb 11, 1983 wasn't locked in till a day or so before.....

That storm was not locked in until the afternoon of.  The LFM lost it on the night before.  I remember it very well.  The morning of nobody was predicting 12" for NYC, never mind 20".  I THINK maybe forecasts the morning of were in the 3-6" range.

4:00 P.M.

Just measured .4".  Very light snow currently and temperature of 27.

Everything covered.  Even my very quiet street which has not been salted yet.

Based on radar might be a decent thump headed this way over the next 30-60 minutes.  If I'm going to get more than 1" it will have to come from that.  Anything after that looks quite light and likely more sleet / freezing rain. 

Just very light to occasional light snow here.  Light coating on everything but the street.  My thinking was 1" here.  Based on the current goings on hard to envision much more than that before a mix with and change to sleet and some minor freezing rain during the evening and then to plain rain around mid-night.  I see NWS just hoisted High Wind Warning for gusts to 60 mph.  That should be interesting with the wet ground tomorrow afternoon into Monday.  Bound to be some downed trees / power outages if those gusts are realized.

Flurries and very light snow (1:25 p.m.) melting on contact.  Temperature is 32.

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no, just 1-2 feet of snow

Man that 500 is beautiful!  Love the upper low track through northern VA and passing to our south!  Was what I mentioned yesterday morning that would deliver the goods.  Goods = heavy snow, strong winds and very cold high ratio wind driven snow.  
Would love to see these trends continue today or at least something very similar.  Get this to 12Z Monday looking like this and I will feel much more confident.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Just gotta get that upper low to dig baby dig into Virginia and belly under and capture the surface low before it can escape so we get the whole shebang.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm excited

 

I'm interested.

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS with a 6-8” mean for NYC

That is a good looking EPS mean this far out.  Gotta keep these trends in tact next several days.  Or at least something close.

X has been smoldering for last few days.  Expecting it will go to four alarms later this morning.  
 

Finally something of substance to track.  Would like to see these trends continue over the weekend.  Looks promising but final outcome TBD.  I love the look from 00z modeling.   No denying it has potential.  Hopefully we have this look from 12Z Sunday runs as we move into the mid range period.

Would love to see a good cold, windy and widespread 12”+ event forum wide!

11 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I think every snow event I have had this season has been at night. Anyone else notice that ?


.

Pretty much! 

Most of them have started after dark and ended before or just after sunrise.  There were 1 or 2 exceptions, I think.

Per weather buddy in Mt. Laurel, NJ  2.9” so far.  

6 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Wish I knew how to compress images. Dad sent a pic, he lives northwest of Lexington, VA and had 10” at 5:00; he’s over a foot now. 

He has bested my largest storm total this season by 100%!

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference, clusters for New York City's 6" or greater snowstorms during the second half of February since 1950:

With shortening wave lengths, it is perhaps not surprising that the biggest storms have featured a deep trough extending from just off Pacific Northwest into the Gulf of Alaska.

Great stuff.  Thanks.

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

like I can't look at this and not get a little excited. it has every synoptic feature you're looking for

Get this to within 84-96 hours and I will be giddy!

Some great video of the snow in NYC last night.

https://x.com/i/status/1888449741647904796

Some great video of the snow in NYC last night:

https://x.com/i/status/1888449741647904796

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Can't wait to hear what the Central Park total is

They should be measuring right now because will be sleeting very soon.  If they wait until 1 a.m. forget about an accurate reading.

Streets in Times Square now covered. 

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsrobo1

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-states/new-york/new-york/new-york-manhattan.html

Just came in from measuring and was literally outside for the change to sleet.  Now 90% IP falling, light to moderate.

Temp 23.8

2" exactly.

Expecting periods of sleet and / or freezing rain next couple of hours then it essentially should be done.

Was thinking change to sleet 2 to maybe 3 hours after start time.  Started a little after 7:30 and based on radar looks to lighten up and mix between 9:30 - 10:00 latest.

Going to take a measurement now.

Snowy scene in Times Square.

Streets mostly wet but everything else covered. 

https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsrobo1