MANDA

24 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I ride with you on the 4-6 if I remember correctly your location. I would be very happy with that. 

I would be happy with the 4-6 for sure especially since unlike most of the events so far this season this one will stick around for a solid week.  Most other events this season were either all gone in 48 hours or better than 50% gone in 48 hours.  This is going to stick around with a solid snow pack for a while and will greatly aid in radiational cooling Tuesday and Wednesday night.  Not a KU event by any means but a good old fashioned cold near warning criteria snow event for a lot of places.

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yikes. Lots of weenie suicides by the northwest crew if this verifies 

I'm playing it more conservative than most around my area.  Still going with 4-6".  There is still model uncertainty and this is going to be a fast mover.  Dynamics are good but not off the charts.  I'm comfortable with 4-6" around here.  We'll see how it plays out.

7 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I’m going to keep replying to you as we are basically neighbors in Morris County; this will be the biggest event of the season for our area thus far.

Enjoy it and don’t get lost in the model to model differences. 6+” coming for us in my humble opinion. 

Agreed.  Looking good around here.  Been thinking 4-6" since after 12Z guidance yesterday.  Still thinking that this morning.  Would be surprised if less than 4 around here but could see a bit more than 6 IF everything fell into place.    My largest event so far this season has been 6.5" on 11/22-11/23.  Followed by 5.2" on 12/21.  We'll see if either of both of those get moved down the list.

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NWS ensemble probabilities issued this morning for various minimum thresholds of snow. These are pretty high for D3.

I hope this works out ok. Much of eastern LI might be suppressed to an inch or so by rain and milder temps. You'll know better. Am off-line much of the next 3 days. 

Thanks Walt.  I like where this is heading / trending.  Especially for our part of the sub forum.

Very light snow ongoing here.  Just shy of .20" on the day.  Cold - 21 degrees.

Had a period of steady very light snow with sun dimly visible a while ago. Left a coating on most everything except road and walks that had remaining salt.  Les than .10".  Just flurries now.  Cold with temperature of 22.

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

It was posted in jest to emphasize how everything has been south of us this winter 

I know, my post was mainly sarcasm for what was a "Buckle Up" period.  Gut tells me cold is going to overwhelm the pattern.  Certainly not ruling out some light totals over the coming week but I think most of us are looking for something more meaningful.  Certainly whatever we get the next week or so will stick around for a while with the impending Arctic blast.

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

serious question why is the ICON even posted here. 

Desperation? Grasping at straws? Clinging to something?

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

All good but it's 9 days away.   

Isn't it always ? ! 

1.5" here overnight from .08" liquid.  Almost 19:1.

Expect it will be gone tomorrow under bright sun but will enjoy it while it lasts.

Total for the season here is 17.3".

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

Happy to say I'm doing better than all of those.  Sitting at 17.3" on the season.

Picked up 1.5" overnight from .08" liquid.  Almost 19:1 ratio.  Very fluff stuff.

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Gas is $1100 a month? How can that be? My new house will have gas. Does that include cooking, etc?

i pay $700 or so in oil every 3 months in winter

Don't get it either.   Mine was $350 last 30 days.  That is for a 3,000 SF house with zoned heating.  Includes cooking, clothes dryer and two not frequently used gas fireplaces.  I can't fathom paying $1000 a month for gas or other heating fuel.  Up until this bill my highest in a month was $263.  Been here since winter of 2016-17.

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah its been crazy but nothing like our first winter here when it was $1100 one month. We hadn't winterized yet and its a 100 year old house

Jeez, I fell lucky after seeing your amount!  My $350 bill seems like lunch money.

Just got my gas bill for last 30 days.  Highest I have ever had while living here (since May 2016) by better than $100.  Combination of energy costs and persistent cold.  Can't even imagine what it would be like if we had some 70's and 80's era type cold.  We're not reckless with the thermostat either.

26 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Ensembles are split post-MLK day. The GEFS continues with a full eastern trough, while the EPS and GEPS have more of an overrunning setup that favors the interior, potentially with snow/sleet/ice profiles. 

 

At least all 3 of them show the trof axis finally west of us and not over or east of us.  Obviously don't want it too far west but better than the positioning we have gone through and are going through.  Will open the door to the possibility of more freezing or frozen events at least to start.  Final outcomes dependent on individual storm track / details.

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro Weeklies are the coldest yet for the E US overall for these 2 weeks, which would seal a very cold Jan in the E half of the US overall (-7 to -8 in some places wouod be quite possible):

1/13-19: first time with some 4th shade of blue (~9-10F BN):

1/20-26: largest area of 3rd shade of blue yet (5-9F BN)

 

Also note the precip signal for 1/20-26: moderate wet signal Gulf to SE VA (Miller A?): 

Keeps the hope alive for some meaningful snow.  Could just be more cold, dry suppression up here in the Northeast but without the cold we wouldn't have much hope so I will take it.  These nickle and dine coating to 1" event don't cut it for me.

56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s just crappy wave spacing. all of the ingredients were there, they just didn’t come together correctly 

Sort of like when I make dinner.

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

At least there's another potential storm on the maps. With consistent cold weather in January, you'd think we'd get lucky with something at some point. 

You would think so.   Until I see some decent model agreement inside of 4-5 days I tend to downplay.  At 10 days out without at least 2-3 days of consistency it is just noise to me.  Just something of passing interest.

23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro with the mid Atlantic crush job day 10 

It will trend north.  Buckle up.

2024 highlights for NJ:

https://www.njweather.org/content/onjscs-top-10-nj-weather-and-climate-events-2024

Had .30" snow here with the event yesterday.  Temperature is currently 28 with bright sun.  Nearly all the snow is gone.  Trace to slightly more remains in shaded locations only.  More road salt remains than snow.  Respectable cold pattern but nothing more in my opinion.

It was fixed.  It was a typo.  Changed to 12.5".

Seems a tad sparse over SNJ considering what fell yesterday but maybe not yet included. 

Love a good visible satellite loop after a snowfall.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop60.html