MANDA

A more concentrated area of rainfall is ongoing over Southern VA and Eastern NC.  It is moving north.  Maybe that is what NWS/WPC is thinking with Flood Watches and Excessive outlook.  Radar looks unimpressive for most over the next several hours except SE NJ which has been soaked already today.

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

going to be a big bust for areas well north and west that looked to jackpot a day or two ago. Not saying ukie is right but then trend is for the heaviest amounts along the I95 corridor on eastward

I'm starting to brace myself for under 1".  Will see what radar looks like this evening and go from there but trend has been for along I-95 and south and east of there.

Water vapor loop shows nice south to north transport of tropical moisture.

Pretty rare to see flow almost straight south to north.  Most places should get some needed rains but some places will get drenched with training.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop180w.html

Latest from WPC.

Impressive overall pattern.  Some spots could see 3"+ amounts.

Received .07" rainfall last night with fizzling T-storms.

Pretty pleasant this morning with lower DP's and a gusty breeze.

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

FWN is currently in 1st place for highest average daily average maximum dew point in July at 71.1°.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=FWN&season=jul&varname=dwpf&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

Sussex County of all places.  Just goes to show how impressive the high DP's have been.

So close and yet so far.  Just missed a nice shower to my south last evening.  Still optimistic for some decent totals before the end of the week.

1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said:

91/74; according to the Misses, we lost power at home.

Apparently we are also under a severe thunderstorm watch for that cluster rolling up from Frenchtown. 

Looks aimed at your area.  Hope you can get enough rainfall to make it worthwhile and not just add to the humidity for no good reason.

Warm first 6 months of 2024.

https://www.njweather.org/content/scorching-june-2024-and-january–june-recaps

Gotta wonder when our next below normal month will be.  Sure does not look like July or August!

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Separate storm now on Saturday, no rain from beryl 

Beryl remnants were never going to give us much of anything. 

Going to be some tough days ahead in the power outage areas for those that do not have generators.  Heat and humidity will return and from the scope of the outages some places could be without power for a week, hopefully not longer than that in spots.

Can't imagine living in those conditions without a/c. 

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The bermuda high is pushing west so the ring of fire is N and W

Yep, pushes too far west and we will be left on the drier side.  Latest WPC still rather wet from city west into NJ.  Central L.I. on eastward not so much.  Will need another day or two to see how this plays out.  Seems overall though the guidance has been trending to push the wettest area to the left.  Not rooting for flooding rains but I'd just like an inch or so between now and Friday night to keep things watered.  I should be able to get it out this way.

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

And then you have 12z Euro which is very dry. Very little rain all next week on the Euro. Maybe a compromise between the dry Euro and wet GFS will happen. With all the humidity, I would think there would be at least scattered downpours with some areas getting 1 to 2 inches of rain. 

Latest from WPC.  Much will depend on where the western extent of the offshore ridge sets up.  Too far west and we're much drier area wide.

I am riding local 5" amounts over parts of NJ at this time.  L.I. has best chances of seeing only light amounts.

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Too much of a good thing.  Doubt totals that heavy will be that widespread but certainly could see some local totals of 5-7" over the next 7 days.  I'd be happy with an inch over the next week!

39 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you are so pessimistic i see the big picture every day that passes gets us closer to cool fall weather..

With that logic every day that passes gets us one day closer to dead.

Live for the day dude, tomorrow could be just a rumor.

28 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this should have fun dewpoints

Pattern for the upcoming week looks to support a ribbon of high dewpoint air moving from Texas to the Lakes with Beryl remnants along with some locally heavy rainfall.  Another swath of high dewpoint air along the east coast around very anomalous Bermuda high.  That also could yield locally heavy rainfall.  In between the two a relative "drier" swath over the Ohio Valley.  Going to be soupy times ahead along the east coast for sure.

Some torrential downpours at times last night and early this morning.  The one this morning had loud thunder and some bright lightning flashes.  Rain was torrential but was short lived.  Two day total so far = .75".  Just enough but not too much.  Perfect!  Level 10 on the swampy scale out there this morning.

13 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Well the good news is I found where the water is coming into my basement. The bad news is water is coming into my basement. Huge storm here dropped a ton of water in just twenty minutes. How do we all feel about Dryloc on a basement cinder block wall? Good idea or must this be tackled outside via digging? It is a small seepage. 

Dryloc worked great for some small seepage areas in my last house.  I did first use dryloc cement on the block around and over where the water was coming in.  Then used the paint over that.  I did really press the cement into the block and gave it like 3 applications.  Let it dry well then use paint.  Worked well, never had seepage again.  Worth a try before you start digging outside.

Off topic for this sub forum but all time high temperature in RDU today of 106, beating the old record of 105.

Heat index readings ranged from between 110-118 at mid-day.  Localized very intense heat in the Piedmont of NC today.

Was so nasty humid / muggy out today.

Should have been a Swamp Ass Advisory in effect.

Just .14" last night.  Swampy out this morning.

Happy 4th. to all.  Weather not perfect but it would be much worse.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Much wetter pattern starting to show up now that the models have a cutoff low to our west in early July. Interesting how most times in recent years following 100° heat it has turned wet. So not much chance in the immediate future of seeing a repeat of the 100° heat in late June. The high dew points and active convection pattern should be the big story. 
 

That ridge - trof - ridge positioning would be interesting (if that pattern persists) as we head into August and September as far as tropical threats for the east coast.  Just speculation so we'll see how it goes.

5 minutes ago, JoeStafford75 said:

I think they meant the Grenada airport located on Carriacou.  I've been following the Sandals resort feeds next to the Maurice Bishop Airport and it doesn't seem like they really had any gusts over 50mph.  The resort staff is currently setting pool chairs and other items back up for use tomorrow. 

This makes much more sense.  No way did the Island of Grenada record a gust that high 30 miles or so south of the center.

10 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

That's what people probably said about Dennis in 2005. 

Then Emily said hold my beer.

Then Katrina said hold my beer.

Then Rita said hold my beer.

Then Wilma said hold my beer.

Might we get one to beat Wilma?

Had those in my mind when I posted.   That season was amazing.  Sure hope that is not the case this season.