MANDA

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

serious question why is the ICON even posted here. 

Desperation? Grasping at straws? Clinging to something?

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

All good but it's 9 days away.   

Isn't it always ? ! 

1.5" here overnight from .08" liquid.  Almost 19:1.

Expect it will be gone tomorrow under bright sun but will enjoy it while it lasts.

Total for the season here is 17.3".

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

Happy to say I'm doing better than all of those.  Sitting at 17.3" on the season.

Picked up 1.5" overnight from .08" liquid.  Almost 19:1 ratio.  Very fluff stuff.

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Gas is $1100 a month? How can that be? My new house will have gas. Does that include cooking, etc?

i pay $700 or so in oil every 3 months in winter

Don't get it either.   Mine was $350 last 30 days.  That is for a 3,000 SF house with zoned heating.  Includes cooking, clothes dryer and two not frequently used gas fireplaces.  I can't fathom paying $1000 a month for gas or other heating fuel.  Up until this bill my highest in a month was $263.  Been here since winter of 2016-17.

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah its been crazy but nothing like our first winter here when it was $1100 one month. We hadn't winterized yet and its a 100 year old house

Jeez, I fell lucky after seeing your amount!  My $350 bill seems like lunch money.

Just got my gas bill for last 30 days.  Highest I have ever had while living here (since May 2016) by better than $100.  Combination of energy costs and persistent cold.  Can't even imagine what it would be like if we had some 70's and 80's era type cold.  We're not reckless with the thermostat either.

26 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Ensembles are split post-MLK day. The GEFS continues with a full eastern trough, while the EPS and GEPS have more of an overrunning setup that favors the interior, potentially with snow/sleet/ice profiles. 

 

At least all 3 of them show the trof axis finally west of us and not over or east of us.  Obviously don't want it too far west but better than the positioning we have gone through and are going through.  Will open the door to the possibility of more freezing or frozen events at least to start.  Final outcomes dependent on individual storm track / details.

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro Weeklies are the coldest yet for the E US overall for these 2 weeks, which would seal a very cold Jan in the E half of the US overall (-7 to -8 in some places wouod be quite possible):

1/13-19: first time with some 4th shade of blue (~9-10F BN):

1/20-26: largest area of 3rd shade of blue yet (5-9F BN)

 

Also note the precip signal for 1/20-26: moderate wet signal Gulf to SE VA (Miller A?): 

Keeps the hope alive for some meaningful snow.  Could just be more cold, dry suppression up here in the Northeast but without the cold we wouldn't have much hope so I will take it.  These nickle and dine coating to 1" event don't cut it for me.

56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it’s just crappy wave spacing. all of the ingredients were there, they just didn’t come together correctly 

Sort of like when I make dinner.

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

At least there's another potential storm on the maps. With consistent cold weather in January, you'd think we'd get lucky with something at some point. 

You would think so.   Until I see some decent model agreement inside of 4-5 days I tend to downplay.  At 10 days out without at least 2-3 days of consistency it is just noise to me.  Just something of passing interest.

23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro with the mid Atlantic crush job day 10 

It will trend north.  Buckle up.

2024 highlights for NJ:

https://www.njweather.org/content/onjscs-top-10-nj-weather-and-climate-events-2024

Had .30" snow here with the event yesterday.  Temperature is currently 28 with bright sun.  Nearly all the snow is gone.  Trace to slightly more remains in shaded locations only.  More road salt remains than snow.  Respectable cold pattern but nothing more in my opinion.

It was fixed.  It was a typo.  Changed to 12.5".

Seems a tad sparse over SNJ considering what fell yesterday but maybe not yet included. 

Love a good visible satellite loop after a snowfall.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop60.html

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It just sucks that we can't capitalize on a really good pattern. Very frustrating  .

I think better to say we can't capitalize on a cold pattern.  If it were a really good pattern we would be doing better than we are.  Just my 2 cents. 

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

 

DC-Baltimore through Philly-NYC-BOS along and north of I95... a small snow event seems likely Saturday the 11th with dustings to possibly at worst 4 inches but am not playing up a major event. This could have some travel impact but far too early to be sure. Maybe the most favored area for snowfall is the immediate coast of NJ/LI/CT. There's still a small chance this storm will blow up bigger and closer to the coast. Treated roads melt but timing of occurrence will have a bearing on the hazard potential, especially with ice cold surfaces preceding this event.

I can handle a weenie roast, especially if 4+ for NYC on this event.  Right now all modeling through the 06z/7 cycle is kind of merged into the above paragraph.

I haven't seen all prior posts, but for what it's worth, I do not use analogs.  I treat each event differently, not trying to profile it as one or the other category.  Yesterday a good example up here (suppression factor). A lot of these events have a lot to do with banding physics...models are helpful but imperfect.

I'll post the CoCoRaHs snow totals in the other thread at about 10A. 

 

 

 

 

 

Love that you are now a fan of analogs.  Never found of them of much use and especially not now in this current climate cycle. 

Overnight low of 14 with a howling wind.  Lost power briefly.  It is cold out there.

Finished with .30" snow yesterday with a melted total of .02".  As expected for this area.

Overnight low of 14 with a howling wind.  Lost power briefly.  It is cold out there.

Finished with .30" snow yesterday with a melted total of .02".

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is better. hangs less crap back

I guess to each his own but some are thinking northern stream issues and some are thinking southern stream issues.  I am in the southern stream camp.  Too much hangs back and it makes any phase much less likely.  No phase and we're essentially out of business.  We'll see how this plays out.  I would never ever bet the farm with only the GFS solidly in my camp so I really need some better agreement from either the CMC or the EURO, don't really care which at this point.  All comes down to timing a reasonably coherent phase.

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Some. Then lost it until Christmas eve

From Christmas Eve into Christmas day it was locked and loaded.

23 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Yeah I don't think they were brushing off the snowboard to get measurements every 6 hours in 1888. 

Point taken.  I was just going by the official record.  Yes, those pictures don't jive with the official record.

On the other hand the drifting was historic.  One side of the street was swept essentially clean and the other side was buried.  Hard to tell in that picture what was from drifts with then removed snow piled on.  I have a nice book of 1888 somewhere by Judd Caplovich but have not picked it up in decades.