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MANDA

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    2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    13 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

    Not a "huge deal" as not atypical for August, but if not washed out sooner than later it'll definitely put a damper on any big #'s

    The big number threat is going by the boards.  Not likely anything named next 7 days and maybe 10.  That leaves a lot heavy lifting for September and October to get to 20 much less low or mid 20's.  Highly unlikely at this point.  Not to say we don't have some high quality Tropical Cyclones over the next 8 weeks.

    • Like 3
    • Weenie 2

    August 2024

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Absolutely amazing mid August weather!  Gusty breeze and temperatures in the low 50's this morning.  Will make the heat and humidity all the more unwanted when it returns next week.  Honestly done with heat and humidity for this season.  This weather is great.

    • Like 4

    August 2024

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2.88" last 24 hours and two day total of 3.01".  About 2" of that 2.88" fell in about 45 min. last evening between roughly 5:00 and 5:45.  Off and on heavy showers well into the evening.  Got off easy around here.  Got more than enough rain to soak things but not enough to cause issues.  Enough is as good as a feast.

    Seems we are seeing much more of these Flood Emergency type events in recent years.  Never remember so many.   Seems at least one a year in this sub forum area over the last few years.  Several this year alone.  Guess it is the new normal in the warmer more moisture laden era we are in.  Hope nothing tropical to cap it off over the next several weeks.  Not taking bets on that though.

    • Like 3

    2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

    I hate to pull an ldub here but I'm itching to see something else on the long range models. Strange that all models now reach to the end of August and there's still nothing on the horizon after Ernesto. This season is definitely impressive with assuming Ernesto makes MH, we'd be at 5/3/2 by mid August, but I'm still not seeing the upper 20's named storms as many predicted. 

    Maybe the season will be more about quality and not quantity.  The 5 named so far have all been "quality" systems.  ACE supports that as well.

    Agree, not thinking we're going to see named storms get into the m/u 20's.

    • Like 2

    August 2024

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

     

    Records:

    Highs:

    EWR:  98 (2021)
    NYC: 97 (1944)
    LGA: 98 (2021)
    JFK: 92 (1970)


    Lows: 

    EWR: 54 (1954)
    NYC: 55 (1889)
    LGA: 56 (1979)
    JFK: 55 (1979)

    Historical:

     

    1752 - The following is from the Journals of the Rev. Thomas Smith, and the Rev. Samuel Deane, published in 1849. �In the evening there was dismal thunder and lightning, and abundance of rain, and such a hurricane as was never the like in these parts of the world.� This hurricane struck Portland, Maine.

    1778 - A Rhode Island hurricane prevented an impending British-French sea battle, and caused extensive damage over southeast New England. (David Ludlum)

    1933 - The temperature at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, CA, hit 127 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of August. (The Weather Channel)

    1936 - The temperature at Seymour, TX, hit 120 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

    1955 - During the second week of August hurricanes Connie and Diane produced as much as 19 inches of rain in the northeastern U.S. forcing rivers from Virginia to Massachusetts into a high flood. Westfield MA was deluged with 18.15 inches of rain in 24 hours, and at Woonsocket RI the Blackstone River swelled from seventy feet in width to a mile and a half. Connecticut and the Delaware Valley were hardest hit. Total damage in New England was 800 million dollars, and flooding claimed 187 lives. (David Ludlum)

    1987 - Early afternoon thunderstorms in Arizona produced 3.90 inches of rain in ninety minutes at Walnut National Monument (located east of Flagstaff), along with three inches of pea size hail, which had to be plowed off the roads. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

    1988 - Fifteen cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Youngstown OH reported twenty-six days of 90 degree weather for the year, a total equal to that for the entire decade of the 1970s. (The National Weather Summary)

    1989 - Thunderstorms were scattered across nearly every state in the Union by late in the day. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Fergus Falls MN, and golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph at Black Creek WI. In the Chicago area, seven persons at a forest preserve in North Riverside were injured by lightning. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

    2004: Hurricane Charley was the third named storm and the second hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. Charley lasted from August 9 to August 15, and at its peak intensity, it attained 150 mph winds, making it a strong Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It made landfall in southwestern Florida at maximum strength, making it the most powerful hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Andrew struck Florida in 1992.

    2005 - A tornado strikes Wright, Wyoming, a coal-mining community, killing two and destroying 91 homes and damaging about 30 more in around the town.

    Can you imagine if a "Connie and Diane" scenario unfolded today !?

    Hurricane Ernesto

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Best bet at this point is to watch the ensembles for trends over the next 5 days or so.  You will then get a general idea of what to expect with this and if it might ever become a threat to the U.S.

    As of now pure speculation.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada.

    Close enough at 7-10 days out.  Debby made a marked shift left compared to original tracks in less than 5 days.  Worth watching.  Nothing has even formed yet....when it does and where it does will have implications one way or the other. 

    • Like 1
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    Potential POCKETS 5+, at most MAX 12" rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5". Already at 12z/Wed "tiny" pockets 5-7" I195 NNJ/NYC area

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Based on the totals over Hunterdon County last 24 hours....never under estimate the potential from tropical downpours.  They can easily over perform.  Totals of 1 to 1.5".

    Could be an active day of weather tomorrow.  Gusty winds, heavy downpours, local flooding and potential severe.  Reverence @wdrag post from earlier.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Potential POCKETS 5+, at most MAX 12" rain by 18z Sunday. Suggest OBS Tue-Sunday only when exceeding 5". Already at 12z/Wed "tiny" pockets 5-7" I195 NNJ/NYC area

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    From poking around into some of the rainfall totals from last evening although not near as widespread as Ida but it seems some rainfall rates and totals approached or exceeded those from IDA.  Very localized though.  Had it been more widespread could have been a serious situation across a large part of this sub forum.  Still quite impressive in my opinion.

    August 2024

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    From poking around into some of the rainfall totals from last evening although not near as widespread as Ida but it seems some rainfall rates and totals approached or exceeded those from IDA.  Very localized though.  Had it been more widespread could have been a serious situation across a large part of this sub forum.  Still quite impressive in my opinion.

    • Like 1
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