MANDA

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Nice first snowfall. Where are u located?

Mt. Arlington but perched on a higher elevation (1,050') near Berkshire Valley Wildlife Refuge.  Drive down the hill and towards Rt. 80 and amounts fall off real fast.

Two day melted total here as of 8:00 a.m. = 2.50".  Nice.

Will add to that a bit tomorrow as it has been snowing lightly here all morning.  Not much additional accumulation since I measured this morning but did get an additional .20" so now up to 4.1".

How about the light rain, fog and mist obs. with temperatures in the low 40's from Buffalo up through Watertown !

Not everyday you see that while parts of our area are snowing.

Light snow and a gusty wind ongoing.  Total measurement at 8am was 3.9".  Very elevation dependent.  Next to nothing down the hill less than 1-2 miles from here.  I would have had a higher total but the heaviest band shifted north for a while overnight.

I knew their would be surprises up in Sussex County.  This was a highly dynamic and anomalous situation surface and aloft.  Upper lows like this often deliver the goods for someone.  Catskills were a given although even there more than I would have thought.  Sussex County high ground was ripe for a surprise.

Edit:  Wow at that High Point OB!

Light snow falling.  Eyeballing about 2”.  Sticking to everything.  Plow just came through.  

Deck getting coated.  

32.9

Now 34 degrees.  Short video.

34.5 and wet flakes mixing in with the rain.

Down to 36.  Winds gusting to about 25 mph.  Has been a steady drop in temps from 44 degrees about 2:00 earlier this afternoon.

My weather app is excited.  

Down to 38 here.

24 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Advisory not a Watch.

Yes, sorry.  My mistake.  Fixed it.

Advisory now posted for NW NJ counties. 

Thinking 1 to maybe 3" especially non paved surfaces at my location just a tad above 1000'.

Great satellite presentation this morning.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_NE/loop30v.html

Synoptic setup with this event next 24-36 hours is really unique surface and aloft.  Really interesting setup.

Track of upper level low means some surprises are certainly possible in terms of snowfall.

Received .95" of very welcome rainfall here overnight. 

Nice November day out there today!  Love it.

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

GFS

 

Yeah, the same model that 24 hours ago had me getting 14-18" of snow in the next 24-36 hours. 

GFS is a follower....not a leader.

Even the leaders of years past are not doing well past 3-5 days lately.

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Wet run through day 10 with 3-5 inches across much of the Northeast.

Looks like we are entering a wetter pattern and the persistent dryness will yield to a pattern with more frequent precipitation!

What a beautiful day!  Heavy overcast, chilly temperatures, light breeze and a soaking rain with wind on the way.  Been waiting months for a day(s) like this! 

Any snow will be a bonus.  I think I do better at my location than what Mt. Holly is going with at the moment.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Top 5 warmest fall across the entire region.

 

I'm guessing a top 5 driest as well?  Depending on what happens over the next 3-4 days.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It would be great if the new Euro extended delivers on the multiple rainfall chances right into early December.

 

 

 

I don't even care that it is rain and not snow that is modeled.  Will take every drop and be happy.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Great to see the models coming in wetter. This will be one of the strongest upper lows in the East this time of year. Hopefully, the is the first step toward a much wetter pattern as we head into December. 
 

 

First time in a very long time that the southeast ridge has not fought back to screw things up and has allowed a northern stream s/w to dig far enough south and deliver the goods.  Hopefully a good sign of things to come but I'm not going to get carried away just yet.  I will take the upcoming rain and thoroughly enjoy it.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Shit!  The heaviest is south and east of me !  

Said yesterday much will depend on track of upper level low and development (If any) of a triple point surface feature.  That remains true this morning.  Lots off room here for just frontal passage type rains.  Trends today and tomorrow will be key.

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Proximity to upper low and any triple point is key to who gets what and how much.  Still time for adjustments positive or negative.

Anything less than .50" will be a huge disappointment.