MANDA
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Posts posted by MANDA
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5 minutes ago, GaWx said:
The new Euro Weeklies are the coldest yet for the E US overall for these 2 weeks, which would seal a very cold Jan in the E half of the US overall (-7 to -8 in some places wouod be quite possible):
1/13-19: first time with some 4th shade of blue (~9-10F BN):
1/20-26: largest area of 3rd shade of blue yet (5-9F BN)
Also note the precip signal for 1/20-26: moderate wet signal Gulf to SE VA (Miller A?):
Keeps the hope alive for some meaningful snow. Could just be more cold, dry suppression up here in the Northeast but without the cold we wouldn't have much hope so I will take it. These nickle and dine coating to 1" event don't cut it for me.
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56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:
it’s just crappy wave spacing. all of the ingredients were there, they just didn’t come together correctly
Sort of like when I make dinner.
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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:
At least there's another potential storm on the maps. With consistent cold weather in January, you'd think we'd get lucky with something at some point.
You would think so. Until I see some decent model agreement inside of 4-5 days I tend to downplay. At 10 days out without at least 2-3 days of consistency it is just noise to me. Just something of passing interest.
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23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
Euro with the mid Atlantic crush job day 10
It will trend north. Buckle up.
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2024 highlights for NJ:
https://www.njweather.org/content/onjscs-top-10-nj-weather-and-climate-events-2024
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Had .30" snow here with the event yesterday. Temperature is currently 28 with bright sun. Nearly all the snow is gone. Trace to slightly more remains in shaded locations only. More road salt remains than snow. Respectable cold pattern but nothing more in my opinion.
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It was fixed. It was a typo. Changed to 12.5".
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Seems a tad sparse over SNJ considering what fell yesterday but maybe not yet included.
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Love a good visible satellite loop after a snowfall.
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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:
It just sucks that we can't capitalize on a really good pattern. Very frustrating .
I think better to say we can't capitalize on a cold pattern. If it were a really good pattern we would be doing better than we are. Just my 2 cents.
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5 hours ago, wdrag said:
DC-Baltimore through Philly-NYC-BOS along and north of I95... a small snow event seems likely Saturday the 11th with dustings to possibly at worst 4 inches but am not playing up a major event. This could have some travel impact but far too early to be sure. Maybe the most favored area for snowfall is the immediate coast of NJ/LI/CT. There's still a small chance this storm will blow up bigger and closer to the coast. Treated roads melt but timing of occurrence will have a bearing on the hazard potential, especially with ice cold surfaces preceding this event.
I can handle a weenie roast, especially if 4+ for NYC on this event. Right now all modeling through the 06z/7 cycle is kind of merged into the above paragraph.
I haven't seen all prior posts, but for what it's worth, I do not use analogs. I treat each event differently, not trying to profile it as one or the other category. Yesterday a good example up here (suppression factor). A lot of these events have a lot to do with banding physics...models are helpful but imperfect.
I'll post the CoCoRaHs snow totals in the other thread at about 10A.
Love that you are now a fan of analogs. Never found of them of much use and especially not now in this current climate cycle.
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Overnight low of 14 with a howling wind. Lost power briefly. It is cold out there.
Finished with .30" snow yesterday with a melted total of .02". As expected for this area.
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Overnight low of 14 with a howling wind. Lost power briefly. It is cold out there.
Finished with .30" snow yesterday with a melted total of .02".
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18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:
EPS is better. hangs less crap back
I guess to each his own but some are thinking northern stream issues and some are thinking southern stream issues. I am in the southern stream camp. Too much hangs back and it makes any phase much less likely. No phase and we're essentially out of business. We'll see how this plays out. I would never ever bet the farm with only the GFS solidly in my camp so I really need some better agreement from either the CMC or the EURO, don't really care which at this point. All comes down to timing a reasonably coherent phase.
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6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:
Some. Then lost it until Christmas eve
From Christmas Eve into Christmas day it was locked and loaded.
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23 minutes ago, hooralph said:
Yeah I don't think they were brushing off the snowboard to get measurements every 6 hours in 1888.
Point taken. I was just going by the official record. Yes, those pictures don't jive with the official record.
On the other hand the drifting was historic. One side of the street was swept essentially clean and the other side was buried. Hard to tell in that picture what was from drifts with then removed snow piled on. I have a nice book of 1888 somewhere by Judd Caplovich but have not picked it up in decades.
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25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
But 1888 totals were far exceeded by the January 2016 mega blizzard, I have a hard time believing ANY storm would have exceeded the 30+ inches we got here in that storm, regardless of track. The 1993 storm was in and out in one day..... if any storm could have done it, it would have been the February 1921 storm that was like 17 inches of sleet over 3 days. Almost 5 inches of liquid which would have been like 50 inches of snow if all snow.
1888 in the city had totals MUCH lower than Jan 1996. I was only referencing 1993 vs. 1888 to compare March storms. A track to the east would have easily doubled what NYC got in 1March 1993 with winds gusting to hurricane force. Would have been an epic blizzard.
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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:
It would have been epic if that took a classic BM track instead. Had heavy snow during the day. Then the warm up and rain and big tidal surge which floated away the whole snowpack which was really compacted. The mini icebergs settled to the ground after floating around the streets and froze into cement blocks with the rapidly falling temps and flash freeze next morning.
Have often thought that. A track 75 miles or so to the east of where it went would have rivaled the Blizzard of 1888 in NYC. Those tremendous totals in update NY would have been much closer to the city if things were displaced a rather short distance to the east. Never lost the cold at the surface over in Morris County just the mid levels as it was.
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Finished with .30" here.
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Maybe better pictures.
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Link to Extended discussion from WPC. While their extended progs lean away from GFS solution they have left the door open for changes.
I'm not favoring the GFS solution at the moment but IF the EURO is hanging too much energy back over the SW (as it sometimes does) then a better outcome is possible. I wouldn't be slamming the door on this just yet. It is 5 days away with a complex evolution.
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32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:
October 2002. The 93 blizzard the Euro/UKMET nailed it from like 144 hours out, the MSLP was too weak but they had like a 988mb low off the Delmarva. 96 everything was a near miss til Thursday then the Euro was the most west but nothing else was close til early Saturday
At one point. Maybe the Thursday or Friday before event started one of the models (UKMET) I think had a 954 low over central New England.
Managed to save the 36 and 48 hour panels off the NGM and they hang on my wall.
Those 36 and 48 hour positions were about 50-75 miles further west than reality on the NGM.
Hard to read as the glass of the frame didn't allow the best picture.
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26 minutes ago, SACRUS said:
Those were the days of the MRF and AVN from the american suite. Think the GFS started 2003 or 04.
Yes, sorry. you are correct. It was the AVN / MRF for 93 and 96 for sure. Got carried away.
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2024-2025 La Nina
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
At least all 3 of them show the trof axis finally west of us and not over or east of us. Obviously don't want it too far west but better than the positioning we have gone through and are going through. Will open the door to the possibility of more freezing or frozen events at least to start. Final outcomes dependent on individual storm track / details.