MANDA

All done here.  Just flurries now.  Finished with an even 9”.

Last band coming through.  Moderate snow now.

Looks nice out there.  Still light snow.

Snowing lightly.  8.6” otg.  Light snow for a bit longer but it is wrapping up soon.

28 and 5” otg. Heaving snow attm.

29.5 and moderate snow now

33 here.  Light to moderate snow.  Everything including road covered since it began about 30 min ago.

Just now, Brian5671 said:

whole state is closed here tomorrow-town/city offices schools you name it--north of 84 may have close to nothing.

Absolutely nuts. Stuff like this never used to happen.  

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wow. Schools in Boston are for maybe 2-3" there.  

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wow. Schools in Boston are closed for maybe 2-3" there.  

Laughable if true.

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

They had to bump the numbers down along and north of I80.  There was nothing left to support what they had going.  Looks like much more reasonable map overall.  I would tend to lean to the lower end of the range for 78 north.  

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not impressed with this map.  Knock some off for not pure 10:1 event and you are notably less than NWS amounts.  Especially up my way.  Going to be interesting from around daybreak through noon.  Some will be disappointed IMO.

Wow, we moved up to first place!  Last time you posted we were #4, I think at the end of January.

Interesting to see where we drop to after the event tomorrow.

Thanks for posting.

Don-

Thanks for all your great stats.  Do you have an updated winter ratter chart as of today?  Just wondering if NYC bumped up a position from the last time you posted?  Just wondering what it will be before and after the coming event.

Thanks.

Has got to be some cutting of the totals by NWS at some point for along and north of Rt. 80.  I don't see their current forecast of 8-10, 10-14 verifying along and north of 80 and west of 287.    I'm thinking 4 to maybe as much as 6 for my area and the 6" is a MAYBE.  Not liking the current trends for more than 6" up this way.

I was in Manhattan for the April 1982 storm.  It stuck on the roads and temperatures the day before was I believe were in the low 50's.  Granted during the event temperatures fell into the m/u 20's, that is a big difference compared to 32-34 tomorrow.   Late morning into early afternoon would have done late January or early February proud.  Heavy snow with thunder and lightning and intense rates of fall got the job done.  Also, that storm was not that different than this.  Bombing low off Del-Mar-Va moving NE to near BM.  If I recall correctly CNJ had much less than CP and SNJ had little to none. 

Guess my point is that if temperature can fall to 32 and you get 1-2" rates for a while it will stick to the roads but it has to snow HARD.

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realistic

Would also have been much better if decent cold air was in place and more was readily available to be tapped.  We're really relying on dynamic cooling especially more eastern parts of the forum.  Still going with 2-4" for my location with 6" or 6"+ for NW Sussex county on north and east.

We'll see soon enough.

My thinking best chances for 2-4" starts along I80 and west of 287 for the NJ crew.  First call for my area 2 to perhaps as much as 4".  Thinking 1/2" to 1" of slop NYC/LI and immediate NJ burbs EWR area.  1-2" interior NE NJ. 

Subject to some adjustment but not envisioning 6" or more outside of NW Sussex on north and east from there.

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If winter's doomed to total garbage, today will do perfectly fine. The worst is useless cold and dry to warm and the storms hit then. Sucks though for the Catskills, etc ski resorts that rely on the snow. 

Totally agree.  Is terrible for ski areas though as you said.

Helluva winter for sure!

Off topic for this forum but a nice wintry scene up in Barrow this afternoon.   Check out the drifting.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I think the focus on a light event is warranted until there is more support for something bigger. The GFS is too aggressive. Apparently, a social media account compared the upcoming event to the February 1969 Lindsay Storm (15.3” in NYC and 20.2” at JFK). But that account didn’t tell a key part of the story: the temperature for that storm fell from 34 into the middle 20s. Most of the precipitation fell with readings that were below freezing. That’s not the case this time around. Were there a similar air mass, then we’d be looking at a significant snowfall. One other omission, the 1969 storm was much wetter than what is likely this time: NYC: 1.82” and JFK: 2.49”.

I read your post and how to go check to see if it was who I thought it was.  It was.  This person has really gone off the deep end last several years. 

Shame. 

Lindsey Storm

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Current North American snow extent at record lows for the date back to December levels. 

 

 

Pathetic.

53 pages on the 8th of the month and no snow or cold to show for it so far. 

I know full well that is what was expected but that is a lot of "chit chat" over a pending pattern change.

Keep calm and carry on.

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The two-day figure was > 1 in 1,000 years. I don't have access to UCLA's older data, but the two-day figure was a record.

Was going to guess once in a 500 year return.  Wow, that is really impressive.  Thanks!