MANDA

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty hard to not find at least some decent winds with a 970 pressure. Like others have said it takes near perfect conditions to creat a 5. The classic is Katrina going from a cat one to a 5 while passing right over this same area. 

You knew Katrina meant business when it exited the SW coast of FL more organized than when it came in on the SE coast.  That storm just had the look from the get go.  Classic "brown ocean" intensification while tracking across the Everglades.

Interesting from NWS Tallahassee.  Didn't realize a major had never entered that region before.

Southeast rains.  Unusual to see widespread shower / T-Storm activity out ahead of a hurricane like this.  Usually sinking air in advance.  Looks to me like a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event) ongoing.  Bands of rain/storms along Fl west coast are more directly related to Idalia.

Pretty much crickets and tumbleweeds around here for the next week or so.  Snooze fest weather wise.  Would have been real interesting if Idalia made a run up along the Appalachians but no trof deep enough to get the job done.

Solid core developing now.  TPC forecast of 125 mph landfall looks solid.  I'd say landfall is before daybreak tomorrow, a little sooner that TPC 11am Advisory suggests.

Could not pick a better place to landfall in Florida is terms of coastal population and coastal infrastructure.  Mostly Wildlife Management areas and marsh.   Will keep surge damage / loss to a relative minimum.  Inland wind damage is another story.  Lots of tree damage and power outages on tap.

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

Very much agree!

10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I see some limiting factors dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south.  I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. 

Thinking along same lines on possible adjustment to the right in track and for the same reason you mentioned, though not thinking as far to the right as Sarasota.  Pine Island maybe?  IMO not concerned about any dry air, atmosphere looks moist ahead (especially if track is more to the right) and if there is some dry air entrained from the SW it should be able to get mixed out quickly with increasingly favorable jet divergence aloft.

From the looks of things Idalia is getting ready to launch.  Satellite and radar looking quite impressive.  Idalia is just getting ready to cross into the southern GOM.  I said about 36 hours ago if she can have a core established by that time the stronger solutions will play out.  Looks to be entering the GOM as an intensifying Tropical Cyclone.  Once she center clears western Cuba I think we are going to be in for a show.  Also, IMO I think the nudges westward in the track guidance are over.  Looking at WV loop the small upper low over the FL Panhandle is moving east and lifting out.  Idalia should follow in that general direction as upper trof dropping through the GL/Upper Ohio Valley eventually takes over the shunts her east off SC/NC coast.  Landfall I believe is 25 miles either side of Cedar Key.  No doubt in my mind though that the lid is going to come off the pot soon.

Watch for little nudges to the right in future TPC updates.  Any nudge to the right ups the ante for surge into Tampa Bay.  Also watch for potential bumps up in the intensity forecast.  Will have a much better idea on both track and ultimate intensity by this time tomorrow.  Potential here for the most significant surge into Tampa Bay in a long time.  Much depends on exact track but not likely this is going inland south of Tampa to keep them out of a surge problem.  Next several model cycles with all the data from synoptic missions fed in should offer better idea on estimated landfall point.

2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Not sure if the llc is feeling the effects of the deeper convection to the east or what but it’s getting pulled that direction in a hurry on visible 

Looks like a rather disjointed mess attm.  Of note though is that it is solidly in the NW Caribbean.  If some sort of core can get together before it starts to lift north that will allow it to enter the southern GOM ready to go.  If it is still disjointed upon entering the southern GOM the odds of a major hit IMO go down.  If it enters the GOM as an intensifying more or less well developed system I'd be concerned!

12 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Agree with all.  No question this is a tropical cyclone and the NHC should to pull the trigger soon.  Looks too good on all levels (banding, outflow, convection, radar presentation).  

I've seen so many systems NAMED that did not look near as good as this!

Yes, it is humid here today but man it could be worse!

1.36" rainfall here.

36 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Kinda surprised an already struggling moderate TS wasn't absolutely destroyed by the (in)famous Shredderola.

The ones that are struggling / weak on their way in tend not to be disrupted as much as something with a well developed core.  Just my opinion.  I've seen this happen in the past.  If it is weak and in a moist lower shear environment it tends to fair better.

We'll see what it does in the days ahead but seems to me it should reach hurricane intensity without much trouble.  Franklin will tally up some ACE points.

Franklin looking very healthy as it crosses DR/Haiti.  Nice outflow and banding.   Low shear and warm water ahead should get Franklin to Hurricane status with not much trouble. 

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Don was impressive and an overachiever vs expectations.

For longevity for sure, tracked for 10 days.  Intensity was ho-hum and it was out of the deep tropics.  Still counts I get it but so far this season we've seen mainly weak and short lived systems.  Says much about how unfavorable things have been atmospherically speaking.  Franklin only hope in the coming days of racking up some ACE points.  We'll see what condition he is in after emerging from DR/Haiti.

Emily, Gert and Harold had a combined total of 1.4 ACE points.  Just throwing it out there for those of us who care about such things.

IMO Gert was a waste of a name.  At best was a borderline Tropical Cyclone and TPC held onto the designation way beyond what it should have been if it ever should have been.

Emily was legit for a short time as was Harold.  I suspect if Harold had about another 12 hours over water would have reached Hurricane status.  Looked good coming onshore based on radar and satellite.

Lots of names but not much sizzle so far this season.

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Some places in Iowa have dewpoints in the low 90s!

Evapotranspiration a.k.a. "corn sweat" in high gear.

Gotta feel sorry for the folks out in the central U.S.  Heat indexes 115-120 in spots!  Nasty stuff.

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

Emily done... Gert will be done by this evening 

Might be less than 2 ACE points between them when all is said and done.

Gert will hang on until 5 pm as a named system only because they didn't pull the plug at 11, which they easily could have done.

Looks pathetic.

Emily was legit for a short time and Gert was an absolute joke.  Never would have been named back in the 70's, 80's or 90's.   There is just more of this going on in recent years.  System in the Gulf "has the look" but will run out of water before it can get out of hand.  Thinking it will be designated at least a depression and MAYBE a TS.  Regardless, it will bring much needed rainfall to Texas.  Franklin only one of the bunch that will generate any meaningful ACE points. 

Any comparison of this "burst" of names to 1995 is absurd.

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

After languishing in the MDR, we have Tropical Storm Emily. 

 

Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072023
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 20 2023

The large area of low pressure we have been monitoring 
over the last several days to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands 
has finally developed a well-defined circulation per recently 
received satellite wind data. In addition, the scatterometer wind 
data also suggest the system has developed a robust wind field on 
its northern semicircle, with ASCAT-B/C both showing believable 
wind retrievals in the 40-45 kt range. Therefore, advisories are 
being initiated on Tropical Storm Emily this morning with maximum 
sustained winds of 45 kt, which is in good agreement with the latest 
1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix. 

The estimated motion of the tropical storm is slowly off to the 
west-northwest, at 300/9 kt. Over the next several days, Emily 
should maintain a general west-northwestward motion as it remains 
steered by a low-level ridge centered to its north. A gradual turn 
to the north is anticipated after Emily becomes a remnant low, 
rounding the southern periphery of this subtropical ridge. The track 
guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the 
initial track forecast lies in between the simple and corrected 
consensus aids.

Emily might already be near its peak intensity, as vertical wind 
shear is expected to substantially increase over the cyclone in the 
next 24-36 hours as it remains embedded in a fairly dry mid-level 
environment. While it is possible a bit more intensification occurs 
today, it seems more likely the system will soon succumb to the 
increasingly hostile environment over the next several days. Both 
the GFS and ECMWF suggest Emily will cease to produce organized 
convection in about 48 hours, and the official intensity forecast 
shows it becoming a post-tropical remnant low at that time. There is 
some chance the environment becomes more favorable again in 4-5 
days, but a regeneration scenario will not be shown in the official 
forecast for now. 



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 19.5N  38.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 20.3N  39.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 20.9N  41.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 21.5N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 22.5N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0000Z 23.6N  47.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 25.1N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 29.8N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z 36.0N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

Will get a some minimal ACE points from this but so far this season it has been quantity over quality.

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was actually the 2nd strongest trough near the region during the summer behind 2009. But since we have warmed up so much since then, it wasn’t as cool as that year was. Still very impressive in the age of the persistent WAR and SE Ridge patterns. 

Nice plots and I totally agree.  Back in the "cooler" climate this would have been a noteworthy cool summer.

Has got to make you wonder when the pattern will break down and can't help but feel we have wasted and are wasting an eastern trough during the warmer months and if we flip back to ridging over the east for winter.  This pattern may have happened at the wrong time for winter weather lovers.  Unlikely this pattern persists for the next 6-7 months with any staying power.  On the other hand we are kind of in uncharted territory with climate extremes lately so who knows.

On another topic.  Gotta love the naked cloud swirl otherwise known as TD 6.  So far this season we are going with quantity and not quality.

Coming into peak season so we'll see what happens.  Not expecting anything long lived or intense this coming week.