MANDA

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Proximity to upper low and any triple point is key to who gets what and how much.  Still time for adjustments positive or negative.

Anything less than .50" will be a huge disappointment.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Finally

I have been smelling smoke during the week here in Brooklyn. 

All the grass have been turning brown. Very bad.

In addition to all the brown grass it is disheartening to drive by any of the local reservoirs around here.  They are low and getting lower.

Lowest I have seen in a long time.

15 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (1993)  - latest 80 degree reading in EWR
NYC: 80 (1993) - latest 80 degree reading at NYC
LGA: 80 (1993)  - latest 80 degree reading in LGA
JFK: 77 (1993)


Lows: 

EWR: 18 (1933)
NYC: 20 (1967)
LGA: 22 (1967)
JFK: 20 (1967)

Historical:

 

1964 - With the help of a fresh three inch cover of snow, the temperature at Ely, NV, dipped to 15 degrees below zero to establish an all-time record low for the month of November. That record of -15 degrees was later equalled on the 19th of November in 1985. (The Weather Channel)

1974 - A storm produced 15 inches of snow at the Buffalo, NY, airport, and 30 inches on the south shore of Lake Erie. (David Ludlum)

1986 - An early season cold wave set more than 200 records from the northwestern U.S. to the east coast over a seven day period. For some places it proved to be the coldest weather of the winter season. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - The first major snowstorm of the season hit the Southern and Central Rockies, producing 12 inches at the Brian Head ski resort in Utah overnight. Strong and gusty winds associated with the storm reached 52 mph at Ruidoso NM. In the eastern U.S., the temperature at Washington D.C. soared to 68 degrees, just three days after being buried under more than a foot of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1987: On November 15 and 16, intense thunderstorms rumbled through the South-Central US producing 49 tornadoes in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi during a 34 hour period. Of the 49 tornadoes, four were F3, 12 were F2, 27 were F1, and 6 were F0. These severe storms caused 11 deaths and 303 injuries. This storm system also brought heavy rain to central Louisiana where five stations recorded over 10 inches in 24 hours. The highest amount was 14.22 inches at Olla on the 16.

1988 - A massive storm produced snow and gusty winds in the western U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. Winds gusted to 66 mph at Show Low AZ, and Donner Summit, located in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, was buried under 23 inches of snow. Heavy rain soaked parts of California, with 3.19 inches reported at Blue Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed east of the Rockies. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as New England, and readings in the 80s were reported across the southeast quarter of the nation. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. For the second time in the month Dallas/Fort Worth TX equalled their record for November with an afternoon high of 89 degrees. The high of 91 degrees at Waco TX was their warmest of record for so late in the season. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Wyoming overnight, with a foot of snow reported at Cody, and ten inches at Yellowstone Park. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1996: An intense, lake effect snow event came to an end over western New York, northeastern Ohio, and northwest Pennsylvania. Chardon, Ohio was buried under 68.9 of snow over a six-day period. Edinboro, Pennsylvania checked in with 54.8 inches. 18.5 inches blanketed Cleveland, Ohio and 42 inches fell at Sherman, New York.

That 1989 warm surge was followed by a bitter cold December.  Rest of the winter was a relative dud.  Remember that December cold well.

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro does give most of the area a nice half inch to inch soaking Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with some spots getting more than that. Obviously we would be thrilled with that at this point. 

Major trof buckling into the Ohio Valley and this is about a week away so details to be worked out but model support there for 1"+ rainfall if things evolve favorably.  First test of the Fall / Winter season if we are going to be playing Kick the Can again this season on colder and storminess.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models finally starting to agree on a strong cutter next week which could bring the best rains this fall. Want to see this continue in the runs next few days. But it may be the best chance we have of a decent rainstorm this fall. Hopefully, the retrogression works out for us like it has in the past.

 

Cutter or not....I'll take it!  Like to see some model persistence as well but I am optimistic. 

Nico to have a cloudy day for a change.

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Most of the area in severe drought now

Not improving in the near future.  Just so glad this did not happen during the warmer months.  Would have been hellish for those with ag interests not to mention home gardeners.  Also not to mention what it would have done to elevate temperatures.

40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Very gusty here with CAA-temps holding steady

Currently 44 here with a gusty wind and lots of strato cu.  Looks and feels like November!

Received .26".  Just enough to dampen the fire fuel for a couple of days.  Did nothing other than that and we look to be back into a drier pattern again. 

At least we have lost the record and near record high temperatures!

If I get 1/4" I will call it a win.

Summary on the dry September / October from State Climatology office at Rutgers:

https://www.njweather.org/content/bone-dry-october-2024-recap

Expansive dryness and drought continues to affect and is expanding over majority of the lower 48.

Just way too warm out there today.  I like nice weather as much as anyone but this is unpleasant at this time of year.  Sorry.

20 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Another beautiful day in store. Already flirting with 70. We'll make a run for 80 tomorrow. Out exploring some less traveled fire roads in the Pine Barrens documenting some rare plants

That soil looks mighty dry!  Terrible.

Interesting blog post from Mt. Washington Observatory site.

Was kind of surprised at precipitation departures over last 365 days.  Darn close to normal.  Would have expected more significant positive departures.

Certainly dry over the last 2 months over a large area.

https://mountwashington.org/wildfires-in-new-england/

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models finally showing something inside 7 days. Icon late week. Gfs next weekend. Cmc not enthused though. I'd take anything at this point. 

Same here!  Anything.

48 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Caribbean storm coming into better focus and may have an impact here (rain or squally rain?) around Nov 11-12?  A large percentage of autumn rain here I think qstropical related.

I am hoping for this.  If whatever this becomes can get linked up with an eastward moving front / upper trof we might get some needed rainfall.  Timing might me good.  The fact that this development has been delayed might end up being a good thing.  We'll see.  Thanks Walt!

Just a few sprinkles earlier.  Slightly dampened the ground.  Not even a drop in the gauge.

I was giddy this morning just to wake up and see a heavily overcast sky.  It actually looked like a November morning.  It felt like an early September morning with temperatures in the 60's with humidity.  Clouds will be exiting soon with more bright sun and above normal temperatures to follow.    Wonderful!

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

They could be 85 or 86 at 3pm

Their high so far today is 85.2.  They are currently sitting at 85.

9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

84 here right now. 

Sorry, my error.  I was referencing the 85 at Duke Farms, not the Airport.

Until we get a meaningful pattern change dry is going to beget dry (and warm)

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

84 in smq already

They just hit 85.

Sorry, this is just nasty for this time of year.

No rain here.  Still sitting at a trace for the month.

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There it is!!!!

 

NYC  291800 METAR 291751Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN018 14/12 A3045
   RMK AO2        RAE50 SLP301 P0001 60001 T01440122 10172
   20128 58018
               
 

Unbelievable.  Came so far and had to have it screwed up for .01".