MANDA

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

More like the start of December is a 10 day relaxation period from one of our warmest falls on record. It will feel much colder due to how warm it has been. But the cold departures will be modest compared to colder starts to December in the past. 
 

 

A cold outbreak similar to some that occurred in the 70's and 80's would feel like the end of days compared to what we've seen in recent years with in and out modest cold shots.

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro phases too much and it rains to Canada 

Interesting.  Euro is usually too slow in kicking Southwest energy out.  Not sure if that will still be true in the recently released model upgrade.

This is a cold map for the last day of November.  Pretty impressive and not unexpected.  Another strong shot of cold into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic next weekend before pattern relaxes. 

10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 8th might be trending towards a legit storm risk… more STJ involvement due to the Baja energy becoming more progressive, confluence is in place, Arctic airmass leading in, and ideal Pacific pattern 

Been watching that southern feature.  I agree.  This could be a legit THREAT.  Potential phasing?  Always tricky to get that southwest energy kicked out but interesting to watch.

3 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

24 here with a projected high of 35; going to be chilly for the kids on our annual Christmas tree adventure. 

Enjoy every second of it.  They grow up fast!  Special times.

On and off snow showers and flurries all afternoon.  Had a moderate to heavy squall around  5:00 with gusty winds and reduced visibility.  Coated everything.  Pretty much melted now but some remains on colder surfaces.

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Bump. 
-# of NS is at 18, which is 5 below April CSU prediction.

-# of NS days is at 78, which is way below the predicted 116

-ACE is at 162, which is way below the predicted 210.

 So, 2024 was still another extremely April CSU forecast that verified too active.

It was the lull right at the height of the season that killed the hyper active storm totals & ACE numbers that were forecast.  Had that part of the season performed closer to or even a little above normal those with the bigger numbers would have gotten much closer.  Season memorable for all the U.S. impacts and being back loaded.

If you take out highly anomalous Beryl the ACE total would have been even lower.  I know we don't take that out but just pointing it out.  Beryl was about 35 ACE points (biggest ACE producer of the season) in an area that is usually very unfavorable in early July.

Trace of snow here this morning from a quick moving band of rain showers that quickly transitioned to wet snow. Just a trace of snow on rooftops and the deck.  Had .66" liquid from the two day event.

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Congrats. Enjoy!

This heavy Lake Effect snow event has been well telegraphed for almost a week.  Had BIG written all over it.

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the record warm lakes will modify the air mass when it gets to our area, it’s a great set up for heavy lake effect snow.

 

 

I'll take the over on some spots getting 36".

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s being discussed in the main forum in the La Niña thread since we done have a December thread here yet.

Thanks!  Didn't know that.  Will check it out.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and EPS are very cold moving forward.

I think the cold shot to open December will be rather impressive.  Surprised it is not getting more attention.  Going to have significant wind chills over a large area and hefty Lake Effect snows associated with it.  It addition cold looks to reload behind first outbreak.  First two weeks of December (at least) look to have solidly below normal temperatures.  Lack of widespread U.S. snowfall for first shot will certainly help moderate the first cold shot  but maybe one after that will have U.S. snow cover to work with.

19 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I'm surprised.  I expected almost all of it to have been melted...

Had 6.5" here.  As of this morning 80-90% coverage with an AVERAGE depth of 2".

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is further southeast and weaker. It likely comes north in future runs. Timing of the cmc would be awful as the worst would be morning and midday

Yeah.  Snowfall hopes aside the timing on CMC is not good.  Plenty of time for that to adjust though.  Hopefully timing will adjust to make the parade a pleasant experience for all.

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like a cold rain for turkey day. Snow for the interior. Parade may not be fun especially if alot of wind too

Just not near enough cold air with this one for most if not all of our sub forum.  Strong upper level system and associated dynamics are not going to save the day on this Thanksgiving event like we just saw with this recent event.  Still time but there will need to be huge changes.

Precipitation summary at my location:

Event melted total = 2.84"

Event snowfall = 6.5"

Guidance indicating some bitter cold building over Alaska and adjacent western Canada by mid and late next week.

Developing pattern will dislodge it and send it southeast into the central and eastern U.S. to close November and for the first week of December.  Lack of snow covered ground over the U.S. will modify it as heads for the east coast but looks like a solid very cold shot for our area. 

Precipitation events and associated P-types to be determined Thanksgiving night into Friday and then first week of December to be determined.

Light to very light snow all day added little but several heavier bursts late afternoon into the evening added about 2”.  Total event snowfall 6.5”.

39 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Wow. At that elevation, I would think you'd have at least 6-8". Maybe the heavier banding last night missed to your north. Plus you're probably 20 miles south of me. If this light snow keeps up once sun starts going down, I think we both can pick up another inch or 2.

I was watching radar last night / overnight and the band did drift north for a while that is what limited my snowfall total.  I was on the southern edge of things for a while.

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Nice first snowfall. Where are u located?

Mt. Arlington but perched on a higher elevation (1,050') near Berkshire Valley Wildlife Refuge.  Drive down the hill and towards Rt. 80 and amounts fall off real fast.

Two day melted total here as of 8:00 a.m. = 2.50".  Nice.

Will add to that a bit tomorrow as it has been snowing lightly here all morning.  Not much additional accumulation since I measured this morning but did get an additional .20" so now up to 4.1".

How about the light rain, fog and mist obs. with temperatures in the low 40's from Buffalo up through Watertown !

Not everyday you see that while parts of our area are snowing.

Light snow and a gusty wind ongoing.  Total measurement at 8am was 3.9".  Very elevation dependent.  Next to nothing down the hill less than 1-2 miles from here.  I would have had a higher total but the heaviest band shifted north for a while overnight.

I knew their would be surprises up in Sussex County.  This was a highly dynamic and anomalous situation surface and aloft.  Upper lows like this often deliver the goods for someone.  Catskills were a given although even there more than I would have thought.  Sussex County high ground was ripe for a surprise.

Edit:  Wow at that High Point OB!

Light snow falling.  Eyeballing about 2”.  Sticking to everything.  Plow just came through.  

Deck getting coated.  

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