MANDA

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems most reasonable 

Message from modeling last 24 hours is that any frozen accumulations (snow, sleet) will be light, on the order of 1 -2" for most locations.  That is not to say it won't be a sloppy and slippery mess Thursday morning.  Not going to do much to increase the snow totals for the season to date for anyone, especially the snow starved crowd.  To sum it up.....Next.

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Warm day today with 50s popping up in a few spots. Feels nice in the sun.

Sure made for a quick melt of the overnight snow.  Nothing left here.  More like a mid to late March type melt than the 3rd. of February.

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Middlesex/Union County NJ border at 11:50 A.M temp is 42 and not a trace of snow on the ground completely melted -its not melting up northern NJ yet ?

Just scant traces left here.  Had 1.2" early this morning.

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That period may serve as a test of how far south we can get the gradient. Real battle setting up between the Southeast Ridge and -AO block over the top with its high pressure. Hopefully, we can eventually get the gradient far enough south so the areas closer to Central Jersey can cash in a bit. But with so much pattern volatility, we may not now how far south the gradient eventually drops this month until we get to within about 120 hrs of the event. 

Might be more like 60-72 hours.

1.2" here with a melted total of .13".

1.2" here with a melted total of .13".

That is a cold looking pattern for around mid-month.  It is 10-14 days out so we'll see if it backs off as time goes on but will be impressive if it verifies.  We'll need to get our snow before pattern potentially becomes suppressive, at least for a while around mid-month.

Most robust we've seen in quite a while. 

We will see what ptypes fall where.  Just nice to see the QPF for a change.

59 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

I want a damn KU event. We’re overdue. Make it happen!

KU or BUST in my opinion.  Bring it or get me to Spring.  Don't need or want these little nuisance events.  Beyond annoying at this point mostly because they are just another excuse to do another major salt dump.

And I will add that no matter how "favorable" this upcoming patter looks to some it is not even close to anything that would yield a KU event.  Like I said yesterday I know some locations in this sub forum are snow starved and will take anything and I wish you all well, I really do but I can do without the little events.

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We will snow this month. The question is how much.  Going to be an interesting month .

Can't say I disagree with this statement.  Much will depend on the push of cold air from the the north and where surface boundary sets itself up.  This will vary from event to event.  Just know that if it stays mostly to the north there is going to be great disappointment.  Have to believe though that at least 1 or 2 events could produce some light to moderate snow totals for most of this sub forum before the month is over.  Going to be a lot of back and forth from one guidance cycle to the next over the coming week.

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

4 rainers before the 10th? ugh

Honestly, I'll take it.  Would rather some good snows but I'm done with all the nuisance type events.  We need the rain so I'll take that over bothersome light events.  I know some of you are in locations that are truly snow starved this season, I get it.  You will take pretty much anything.   

Received .16" of rainfall for event just ended.  Disappointment but it did rid us of the road salt.

January total precipitation = 1.03".

January snowfall = 8.2"

Snowfall season to date = 23.7".

Received .16" of rainfall for event just ended.  Disappointment but it did rid us of the road salt.

January total precipitation = 1.03".

January snowfall = 8.2"

Snowfall season to date = 23.7".

This thread over the last 6-8 hours:

Radar trends looking crappy for any decent rainfall totals for NNJ today / tonight.

Sitting at .04" so far today.  Would be very surprised if I get to .25".  Maybe just enough to rid us of the road salt, including what was dumped early this morning. 

Best rains going north and south for most of this sub forum.  These were the trends over the last few days so not much of a surprise.

20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem would be a nice soaker Friday .75 to 1". Unfortunately it doesn't look like the other models giving us .25"

Hope we can get .25 - .50" out of this.  Guidance has been trending to the lighter side last few days.

51 minutes ago, roardog said:

Those amounts are anomalies not actual amounts.

Sorry, mistake.  Didn't read the map title.  Scrolling through too fast.

Even so, pretty close to normal and we need more than normal to erase the departures we currently have. 

Having said that I will take anything at this point.

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

On a positive note, the upcoming pattern will provide potential relief to the drought-stricken portions of the region.

 

If those amounts are all that is realized over the next 15 days - not good.

3 hours ago, North and West said:

Come back around Thanksgiving to do it all again! Greatest hits include your favorite seasonal classics such as:

It Never Snows Anymore
When It’s Cold It’s Not Actually Cold Because When I Was Young It Was Colder
Baby, It’s Warm Outside (Each and Every Christmas)
No One Knows What’s Actually Going to Happen (Except for Me)
Where You Live Is Not Part of the Metro Region

Bonus Tracks:

Insane Twitter Posts
Clinically Insane Snowfall Maps


.

and the oh so popular newly released single from late December 2024:

Buckle up !

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is a nice soaking for Friday. Rgem less so. More like .25" but still raining at the end

Anything to get rid of this road salt will be welcome in my book.  Thinking .25" to .50" is a reasonable forecast for most at this point.

Boy, the latest EURO sure has pulled the plug on the previously forecast warmup for next week.  Will be key where front sets up.  Still some time for it to adjust more northward or southward.  We'll see.

Not going to be much QPF with a flow like that.  Hopefully we can cash in on .25" - .50" over the weekend.  I'm a hard lean toward the .25" at this point.

Down to about 85% snow coverage here.  South facing locations pretty much down to bare ground.  Full coverage elsewhere with an average depth of 2.5".

This would be rainfall but man I'm rooting for it.  Need to wash this salt away.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Both the gfs and euro have nyc falling into the single digits next week 

Honestly, without meaningful snow who needs it.  By meaningful I'm talking 12" forum wide.  Otherwise let it warm up and rain.  I'm done with the cold and piddly snow events.  It is dry and we could use the rain.

Let the weenies and buns fly.

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

Reading this at work in Florham Park


.

Was living in Long Hill Township for the event.  Was one of my favorites!

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Every thread is a banter thread until further notice I guess.  

Yep, free wheeling discussions for the next 7-10 days.