MANDA

3.82" here as of 8am.  Winds nothing notable.  Maybe some gusts to 20 mph. earlier this morning.

Ground is saturated.

3.82" here as of 8am.  Winds nothing notable.  Maybe a few gusts to 20 mph earlier this morning.  The ground is saturated.

Getting off and on torrential downpours here.  Would do a July or August day proud for intensity / rainfall rates.

The bursts of rain have been brief but just shows you the atmosphere is primed for heavy downpours.

Someone in NJ west of I-95 sees 6" in my opinion.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the GFS doesn’t have much in the way of an inversion in the soundings so has gusts near 70 mph at the beaches.

 

Will be bad news if verifies.  Saturated ground and SE winds of that intensity = not good.  Tree and power line damage likely.  Again, if it verifies.  Models have been overzealous with wind forecasts with several events in the recent past.

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

This looks like shit:  

500 MB HTS in the low 560's is something most of us don't want on Christmas morning.  The 546 at KINL not much better! 

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This may be the warmest day 10-15 EPS signal I ever saw for Canada this time of year. 
 

Not getting any U.S. cold shots between Christmas and New Year's if that is correct!  It is a 360 hour prog but the trend is your friend in this pattern.    **IF** this come close to reality it will take a while to scour out that Canadian warmth so the first 7-10 days of January **COULD** be shot.    

2.46" rainfall here. 

Snowfall .30".  Everything was plastered and caked in a wet snow.  Only concrete and blacktop remained wet.

To Walt's point elevation played big role.  Drove down off the top of the ridge I live on (1060') and once to Rt. 80 exit 30, just a mile away very little snow and mainly wet.  Bit of elevation near Rockaway on 80 and ground was whitened go down 100' or so and all gone.

Wind was non event here.  Barely a light breeze at times over the last 24 hours.

Rainfall just glancing at the gauge (will take measurement at 8am) looks like 2 to 2.5".

Temperature down to 32 even with light to some moderate snow.  Grass and deck coated already with at least 90 min worth of light to some moderate snowfall to come.  COULD see 1" on coldest surfaces?

Based on latest radar trends this is not going to produce anything more than 1" for NW NJ.  Best rains aimed up along and especially east of I95.  Long Island looks to do best with heaviest totals as models have been generally suggesting.

After looking at all the overnight data I think it is safe to say we have started to

I am not at all surprised.  The signal has been there for a lackluster December.  Raging Pacific Jet just ain't gonna cut it for cold and decent snow in the east.  Pattern needs to relax and reshuffle and that is not likely to happen before the end of the month. 

December = shot.

Two periods of light snow here so far this morning.  Colder surfaces with a light coating.  Temperature 29.  I'll take what I can get!

Festive mood flakes!

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Triple phase with the Arctic jet and tremendous feed of Atlantic/Gulf/Pacific moisture. We see that maybe twice a century. 

I believe the Ohio Valley Blizzard of January 1978 was also a triple phaser, not 100% sure though.  That storm EXPLODED moving almost due north from southern Alabama to just west of Cleveland.  Where I was in NENJ at the time we had temperatures into the low 60's and wind gusts to about 60 mph followed by plummeting temperatures and a flash freeze.  A blizzard paralyzed the parts of the Ohio Valley.  Just a few weeks later we had our turn with the Blizzard of 78 over our area.

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was a huge deal at the time. It started getting hyped 5 days in advance. Something unheard of then. 10-12" was something we hadn't seen in 6+ years. I worked at a supermarket at the time and it was an absolute madhouse the night before.

If it didn't take a track right over us we would have had double the snowfall but it was still a huge deal. Didn't go back to school until the following Wednesday due to the flash freeze 

Have a set of old DIFAX maps framed on my office wall.  Event was well signaled 5 days in advance.  All three streams phased from the high Arctic down to the gulf coast.  If track was 100 miles further east most of this forum would have seen a snow event rivaling the Blizzard of '88.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

There should be no shortage of storms this winter.   Just have to hope there's a decent cold air supply at times...

and phasing with the STJ if you want something to remember.  The STJ will be present for sure but without some stream interaction we could be on the the northern edge of things.  Not to mention (as you did) the cold air supply.

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The first hint something unusual was going on was when NYC tied the all-time lowest August temperature at the end of the month of 50°. Several NW suburbs actually dropped into the upper 30s on August 31st. This was followed up by 2nd lowest October temperature of 29° in NYC. The locally colder spots were able to dip below 20. The historic cold continued with widespread single digits on December 3rd.This was the 2nd earliest single digits on record in NYC. So nothing like the climate of the early 2020s.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1986	50	0
-	1982	50	0
-	1976	50	0
-	1965	50	0
-	1885	50	0

 

Monthly Data for August 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	37
CT	DANBURY	COOP	38
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	38
NY	CARMEL	COOP	39
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	39
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	39
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	39

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1936	28	0
2	1976	29	0
-	1925	29	0
-	1887	29	0
-	1879	29	0

 

Monthly Data for October 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	16
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	17
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	18

 

Data for December 3, 1976 through December 3, 1976
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	1
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	2
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	2
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	3
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	3
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	4
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	4
CT	DANBURY	COOP	4
NY	CARMEL	COOP	5
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	5
CT	GROTON	COOP	5
NY	MARYKNOLL	COOP	5
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	6
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	7
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	7
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	7
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	7
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	7
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	8
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	8
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	8
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	8
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	8
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	8
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	8
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	9
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	9

I remember it turning quite cool for a day or so right after Hurricane Belle went by in early August.  Except for the sun angle it felt like mid September.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 76-77 was the only winter I experienced with little ice age style extended cold. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Max Temperature <= 32	Missing Count
1	1976-1977	45	0
2	1917-1918	42	0
3	1880-1881	40	0
4	1903-1904	39	0
-	1884-1885	39	0
5	1935-1936	38	0
6	1919-1920	37	0
-	1904-1905	37	0
-	1892-1893	37	0
7	1977-1978	36	0
8	1887-1888	35	0
9	1878-1879	34	1
-	1872-1873	34	0
10	1933-1934	33	0
-	1874-1875	33	2

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Number of Days Min Temperature <= 20	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	48	0
2	1880-1881	46	0
3	1976-1977	44	0
4	1935-1936	43	0
-	1919-1920	43	0
5	1933-1934	42	0
-	1903-1904	42	0
-	1874-1875	42	2
6	1884-1885	41	0
7	1872-1873	40	0
8	1892-1893	39	0
9	1906-1907	38	0
-	1887-1888	38	0
10	1993-1994	37	0
-	1871-1872	37	1

That kind of cold is incomprehensible these days.  That 76-77 and 77-78 was amazing stuff.  Pattern in 76-77 quickly collapsed in early February 77 from what I remember. I seem to remember walking home from school mid to late February and breaking a sweat.  Good old days for sure.  Not much snow 76-77, only one decent event but snow cover for a very long period of time as nothing melted from December through early February.

Low of 18 with a breeze.  Legit "hoodie weather".

Moderate snow shower earlier (bordering on very briefly heavy) left the deck completely covered.  Also whitened dirt and mulch beds with trace amounts scattered on the lawn.  Some blowing around with a gusty wind.

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same

Not even much of a risk to say 5X as much as last year.

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are no indications that this winter will be a shutout.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say CP will see twice the amount of snow it saw last season. 

Per friend in Trenton moderate snow showers ongoing.  Radar supports this.   Dirt is white and starting to stick on the grass. 

1.46" rain for the recent event.

Keep expectations in check and just know it has to be better than last year !  I am not expecting much from December based on current trends and guidance.

No notable wind here but a solid soaking.  Will measure shortly but eyeballing the gauge from a distance I'd say about 1.5".  To be confirmed shortly.

55 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam back to drencher for tomorrow night

 

Like I said yesterday....gonna be an interesting winter to forecast.  Guidance has been flip floppy for months on most major precip events around here. Sometimes even within 24 hours and that includes the EURO.