MANDA

2 hours ago, rclab said:

If you’re not on duty take your love for a hand in hand walk and kick through the falling leaves as you go. Close your eyes Anthony and imagine doing the same with flakes in the air. For me, walking alone, it’s only a memory, gone seven years ….. For you it’s now. Stay well and together, as always …….

Always live and celebrate "today" because tomorrow is a guarantee for no one.

That is a lot of real estate with not a cloud in sight.

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No rain on the 12z euro 

If this turns into reality we are solidly in record territory for lack of rainfall for a calendar month and extended dry periods.

Was out doing yard work yesterday and today.  Nice weather to do it but the soil that is not getting irrigated is absolutely bone dry and dusty to a depth of at least 6-8".  We are just fortunate this did not happen in July and August.  Would have been horrendous for gardening and crops.

30 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

Agreed. I planted grass seed several weeks ago where my neighbor's contractor had to dig up my lawn to repair his water line. They promised to reseed and did not. I finally did it myself just in time and now, last week, their landscaper ran the lawnmower over the spouting grass, ripping up green sprout, rutting the new soil and blowing away the hay topping. I am livid as too late for me to reseed again. 

Gotta love inconsiderate people. 

Been there and it is infuriating.

In the meantime this dry pattern rolls on.  The chilly nights this week have been great!

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Wow, Duke park down to 27.  I saw those temps around that area on the Ambient App.  Were there any freeze warnings up?

There were Freeze Warnings posted for my area, not sure if they extended as far south as your area.

Some NJ morning lows:

Latest Drought Monitor.  Abnormal dryness and drought continues to expand.

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Getting bad 

 

No rain on the 12z euro for the rest of the month 

Just really impressive to see model cycle after model cycle with little or no precipitation for 10 day periods.

Only a trace here (on two days) for the month to date. 

Just so dry.  Will be interesting to see new Drought Monitor release tomorrow.

Some min temperatures:

45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not even a drop

Not that anyone puts any credence in a 378 hour GFS prog but just to see something that dry especially at this time of year is quite impressive.

This cool / chilly weather is great.  The dryness is getting beyond annoying. 

That high latitude block during all of September really meant business.

Looks like another week without meaningful rainfall.  The chilly incoming air mass will be nice though.

Fall foliage around my area is really starting to peak now.  Nicest color I think I've seen in several years.

Gave in and fired up the furnace this morning.  The cat,  Amanda "Manda" heard the furnace click on and took off to her favorite heating vet!    The breeze was pretty brisk all night and that kept the temperatures from really dropping here on top of the hill.  Low was 39.  Was much colder in the usual NJ cold spots.

Latest Drought Monitor showing the dryness and drought gradually expanding over the Northeast.  Check out West Virginia.  Going to take some good rains to turn that around.

Edit to my prior post.

Found this:

Using Advisory #1 it was off by 12 miles. 

TPC shifted the track northward in Advisory #2 from initial Advisory.   Just noise really but forecast was amazing 4.5 days out.

Here is a look at the "smoothed out" track of Milton.  Does not capture the various wobbles along the way. 

There was a notable southward displacement to the actual track vs. original forecast from last Saturday afternoon - Advisory #2.

Actual track was in the cone the entire time from that early forecast.  In the final run to the coast there was a more pronounced turn to the NE than the original forecast.  The landfall point from 5 days out was off by no more than 30 miles and the exit point off the east coast was off by about the same.  Both were just south of the original forecast track.  The early southward dip was the most notable forecast error.

13 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I think tonight is the night to turn it on, I held off thus far

Yeah, I agree.  Might need it for an hour or so in the morning to "take the chill out" as they say.

Almost turned the heat on this morning but resisted ! 

Morning low was 41 with a noticeable breeze.  Nippy!

12 minutes ago, mob1 said:

https://x.com/StevePetyerak/status/1844177610089300404?t=-1bVNg4O1azsv1beNafBKw&s=19

 

Port Charlotte from an hour ago, it's likely getting worse now. 

Thanks!  Was wondering what it was looking like down that way.

Just torrential rainfall continuing St. Petersburg, Tampa and Bradenton area and spreading northeast across central Florida.

Wish we had some surge data for Charlotte Harbor (Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda).  Have to believe water is piling in.

Latest radar:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=TBW-N0Q-1-48-100-usa-rad

Landfall.

Eastern eyewall has crossed the coast.  Should have official landfall within an hour a short distance south of Sarasota.

Water should be rising quickly now along the coast south of landfall especially from Venice to Sanibel.  Charlotte Harbor should see a fast rise over the next 1-2 hours.

Eastern eyewall should be crossing the coast by about 8:00 / 8:15.

NWS Tampa has issued an Extreme Wind Warning.

Center will be coming onshore next 60-90 min. between Sarasota and Osprey.  Tampa area will be affected by northern eyewall which is very robust. 

All 3 counties are north of the expected landfall point and will be affected by northern eyewall.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Orlando-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined