MANDA

Calm winds with heavy frost here, low of 20.

Some impressive numbers from the spots that radiate well. 

3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The misses reports snow at the homestead. 

Had a "burst" of heavier flurries here about 45 minutes ago.  Was just starting to whiten the deck and the flurries ended.

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 66 (1998)
NYC: 66 (1970)
LGA: 66 (1970)
JFK: 62 (1998)


Lows:

EWR: 16 (1946)
NYC: 11 (1875)
LGA: 17 (1976)
JFK: 17 (1989)

Historical:

 

1896 - An early season snow and ice storm struck the southeastern U.S. It produced 11 inches of snow at Charlotte NC, and six inches at Atlanta GA. (David Ludlum)

1925 - A late season hurricane caused extensive damage across the Florida peninsula, then moved off the Georgia coast crossing Cape Hatteras as a tropical storm. The storm produced whole gales along the Middle Atlantic and Southern New England coast. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Block Island RI, and reached 64 mph at Atlantic City NJ. (David Ludlum)

1950 - A late season tornado killed four persons in Madison County and Bond County, east of St Louis MO. Three tornadoes touched down in Illinois that afternoon, compared to just half a dozen tornadoes in the month of December in 115 years of records up until that time. Thunderstorms also produced hail which caused more than four million dollars damage in the St Louis area, it was the most damaging hailstorm of record for Missouri. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1968: The "Sacramento," a 250-foot fishing barge and former ferry between San Francisco and Oakland, succumb to a winter storm off Redondo Beach.

1970 - A tornado, 400 yards in width, touched down about one mile below the summit of Timpanogos Divide. Trees up to 18 inches in diameter were snapped, and some of the 38 inch snow cover was carried 1000 feet above the ground as the tornado traveled one mile. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - A tornado destroyed a home four miles south of Eastwood MO. The owners were not injured in that tornado, but ironically one was killed Christmas Eve when another tornado hit the replacement mobile home on the same site. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A powerful storm over the Gulf of Alaska continued to produced high winds and heavy rain along the northern and central Pacific coast. Winds gusted to 80 mph south of Port Orford OR, Stevens Pass WA was blanketed with sixteen inches of snow, and Blue Canyon CA was soaked with 1.63 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced ten inches of snow at Union City, PA. Gale force winds gusted to 55 mph at Buffalo NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Squalls produced heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 20 inches at Ironwood. Heavy snow and high winds caused 150 auto accidents in Michigan, resulting in sixteen deaths and 22 injuries. Strong northwesterly winds gusted to 73 mph at Johnstown PA, and Lowville PA received 20 inches of snow in 36 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

The frigid and stormy December of 1989 was getting underway....unfortunately for this area the storminess for the most part missed us to the south.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The only Blizzard that I will see anytime soon.

The fact that it is 50% off and on clearance leads me to believe that could leave you disappointed as well. 

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Not interested.  I think BWI (mby at the time) had a lousy 12" or so that winter.

Yea but it sure hung around for a long time.  Here in NJ I had a solid snow cover from early/mid December until around February 10th.  Don't recall my total but probably around 15" I think.  Nothing melted.  It was light to some moderate snowfall falling on existing snow cover.

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Coldest winter on record in the east will get you those numbers, but that was far from the norm. I walked 200' out onto the frozen Chesapeake Bay that winter in January, 1977 at Sandy Point State Park. The Chesapeake Bay never froze like that again.

Imagine if it did !

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

More like the start of December is a 10 day relaxation period from one of our warmest falls on record. It will feel much colder due to how warm it has been. But the cold departures will be modest compared to colder starts to December in the past. 
 

 

A cold outbreak similar to some that occurred in the 70's and 80's would feel like the end of days compared to what we've seen in recent years with in and out modest cold shots.

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro phases too much and it rains to Canada 

Interesting.  Euro is usually too slow in kicking Southwest energy out.  Not sure if that will still be true in the recently released model upgrade.

This is a cold map for the last day of November.  Pretty impressive and not unexpected.  Another strong shot of cold into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic next weekend before pattern relaxes. 

10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 8th might be trending towards a legit storm risk… more STJ involvement due to the Baja energy becoming more progressive, confluence is in place, Arctic airmass leading in, and ideal Pacific pattern 

Been watching that southern feature.  I agree.  This could be a legit THREAT.  Potential phasing?  Always tricky to get that southwest energy kicked out but interesting to watch.

3 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

24 here with a projected high of 35; going to be chilly for the kids on our annual Christmas tree adventure. 

Enjoy every second of it.  They grow up fast!  Special times.

On and off snow showers and flurries all afternoon.  Had a moderate to heavy squall around  5:00 with gusty winds and reduced visibility.  Coated everything.  Pretty much melted now but some remains on colder surfaces.

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Bump. 
-# of NS is at 18, which is 5 below April CSU prediction.

-# of NS days is at 78, which is way below the predicted 116

-ACE is at 162, which is way below the predicted 210.

 So, 2024 was still another extremely April CSU forecast that verified too active.

It was the lull right at the height of the season that killed the hyper active storm totals & ACE numbers that were forecast.  Had that part of the season performed closer to or even a little above normal those with the bigger numbers would have gotten much closer.  Season memorable for all the U.S. impacts and being back loaded.

If you take out highly anomalous Beryl the ACE total would have been even lower.  I know we don't take that out but just pointing it out.  Beryl was about 35 ACE points (biggest ACE producer of the season) in an area that is usually very unfavorable in early July.

Trace of snow here this morning from a quick moving band of rain showers that quickly transitioned to wet snow. Just a trace of snow on rooftops and the deck.  Had .66" liquid from the two day event.

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Congrats. Enjoy!

This heavy Lake Effect snow event has been well telegraphed for almost a week.  Had BIG written all over it.

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the record warm lakes will modify the air mass when it gets to our area, it’s a great set up for heavy lake effect snow.

 

 

I'll take the over on some spots getting 36".

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s being discussed in the main forum in the La Niña thread since we done have a December thread here yet.

Thanks!  Didn't know that.  Will check it out.

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and EPS are very cold moving forward.

I think the cold shot to open December will be rather impressive.  Surprised it is not getting more attention.  Going to have significant wind chills over a large area and hefty Lake Effect snows associated with it.  It addition cold looks to reload behind first outbreak.  First two weeks of December (at least) look to have solidly below normal temperatures.  Lack of widespread U.S. snowfall for first shot will certainly help moderate the first cold shot  but maybe one after that will have U.S. snow cover to work with.

19 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I'm surprised.  I expected almost all of it to have been melted...

Had 6.5" here.  As of this morning 80-90% coverage with an AVERAGE depth of 2".

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is further southeast and weaker. It likely comes north in future runs. Timing of the cmc would be awful as the worst would be morning and midday

Yeah.  Snowfall hopes aside the timing on CMC is not good.  Plenty of time for that to adjust though.  Hopefully timing will adjust to make the parade a pleasant experience for all.

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like a cold rain for turkey day. Snow for the interior. Parade may not be fun especially if alot of wind too

Just not near enough cold air with this one for most if not all of our sub forum.  Strong upper level system and associated dynamics are not going to save the day on this Thanksgiving event like we just saw with this recent event.  Still time but there will need to be huge changes.

Precipitation summary at my location:

Event melted total = 2.84"

Event snowfall = 6.5"

Guidance indicating some bitter cold building over Alaska and adjacent western Canada by mid and late next week.

Developing pattern will dislodge it and send it southeast into the central and eastern U.S. to close November and for the first week of December.  Lack of snow covered ground over the U.S. will modify it as heads for the east coast but looks like a solid very cold shot for our area. 

Precipitation events and associated P-types to be determined Thanksgiving night into Friday and then first week of December to be determined.

Light to very light snow all day added little but several heavier bursts late afternoon into the evening added about 2”.  Total event snowfall 6.5”.

39 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Wow. At that elevation, I would think you'd have at least 6-8". Maybe the heavier banding last night missed to your north. Plus you're probably 20 miles south of me. If this light snow keeps up once sun starts going down, I think we both can pick up another inch or 2.

I was watching radar last night / overnight and the band did drift north for a while that is what limited my snowfall total.  I was on the southern edge of things for a while.

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Nice first snowfall. Where are u located?

Mt. Arlington but perched on a higher elevation (1,050') near Berkshire Valley Wildlife Refuge.  Drive down the hill and towards Rt. 80 and amounts fall off real fast.