MANDA

Received .62" last 24 hours here - 8am to 8am.

Four day event total = 1.22".  Quality over quantity.  The 1.22" has been slow, gentle and spread over 4 days.  All of it got to soak in instead of running off.  No excessive totals (3-4"+) for this forum so far but some places did better than others. 

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Additional rain is likely tomorrow and Wednesday. It now appears that the dry respite will be brief. Another storm could affect the region Friday into Saturday before a cooler drier air mass arrives.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer.

Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal).

The SOI was +1.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.778 today.

 

Latest EURO for JJA agrees on warmer than normal Summer.  Especially nations mid-section where it shows the largest positive departures. FWIW.

Rainfall totals so far over the last 3 days - click to enlarge.

Received just .09" here yesterday for a 3 day event total so far of .60".

As I mentioned yesterday the best totals so far have been over far NW NJ and radar yesterday was certainly confirming that yesterday afternoon.

Radar echoes now rotating in from the southeast as opposed to last 3 days where things were moving NNE.

Best / heaviest totals next 24 hours look to be from NE NJ on east and north.  Lighter amounts elsewhere.

Guidance only but this WPC product has shown shrinking rainfall totals for days now.

If I get what is shown here for my location and add the .50" I've had so far I'll end up with about 1.75" for the entire "wet period".  I'll take it for sure but a far cry from what could have been and much less than what was being forecast from when we started.  We'll see where final totals actually end up but this was a shaky heavy (3-4"+) rainfall evolution from the get go.

So far extreme NW NJ seems to be doing best, from western Hunterdon, western Warren and up through NW Sussex.

Received .19" from overnight showers.  Two day event total = .51".

Need more but something is better than nothing and the ground is at least somewhat primed for anything heavier over the next 1-2 days.

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature rose to 85° in New York City. At the New York Botanical Garden, tulips are in peak bloom.

Absolutely amazing photos Don.

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Was about to say that cell needs to be watched 

Per my buddy in Pittstown, Hunterdon County.  Fast moving T-storm with strong winds and hail.

7 minutes ago, Picard said:

Hopefully folks didn't cancel outdoor plans based on earlier forecasts that didn't materialize. 
I watched that line skip north like many others in recent memory  - looked like a nice line.  We'll see if more pops up later.  Otherwise, north will continue to rule the day.

 

My app forecast has made it look like the second coming of the flood of Noah for days now.  Anyone just going off that (and many do) was played.

35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Probably a nice inch to inch and a half soaking Monday into Tuesday. Boy do we need it .... it's very dry out there. 

Yeah, anyone with gardening or ag interests needs to be watering regularly lately.  We really could use a good 1-2" soaking.

Soils here are dust dry down to 6-8" at least.

.32" here with fast moving heavier showers last evening and again around mid-night.  Warm and humid morning with just some high clouds.  First morning with a summer feel.

Consolidated area broke up into more showery pattern.  Very brief moderate downpour with a distant flash of lightning to my NW.

Meh.

Watching this batch of heavier showers over EPA.  Holding together and sliding ENE.

Moving along at about 20 mph. 

1-2 minute torrential downpour here about 6:00. 

Was very warm and muggy today as others have said.  Sign of things to come I guess.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

GFS has much of it staying west of us again and most of our subforum about an inch or so over the few days. This can still evolve in a way that’s mostly just chilly east wind mist and occasional light rain. 

This was always a shaky evolution.  We'll see what the final results are but the super hefty event totals (3-4"+) are looking very questionable especially along and east of I95.

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I agree with you, and I see the Euro has backed off from the huge amounts and is now more in line with the other models. Most of the area is probably looking at a 2 to 4 inch rainfall for the period, which is good. We could use a big soaking. 

And it will be spread over a few days so it will soak in gradually.  I'd be very happy with 2" of rainfall spread over 3-4 days.

34 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Today's daylight  13H55M is roughly equivalent to Aug 11th.

Roughly about 35 minutes remaining on sunrise gains and sunset gains.  Slow gain on both between now and about June 21st. 

To @MJO812and @nycwinter hang in there !

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Monitoring for  5-7  Day drought buster Fri May 2-Fri May May 9... no thread from myself as yet but if it looks more likely that there will be 20% areal coverage 5+ in NYC subforum (Poconos-Catskills , to the Ct River and north of I-195, would then thread. 

Latest from WPC has shifted max totals northward (vs. 12Z issuance) from VA Piedmont northward into PA, southern tier of NY and into NJ.  This is through 00Z, Thurs. 5/8.   Will all depend on placement of upper low and speed at which it exits.  Needless to say I would be thrilled with half these totals.  Possible southeast fetch lifted into the higher terrain of PA, NJ, NYS could deliver heavy totals but still subject to how upper low evolves.

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd be happy with another inch or so

Same here!

April precipitation here was 4.76".  While a nice total most of that fell in the first 12 days.  Only an additional .74" fell from the 13th. through the 30th.  April also delivered 1.5" snow for a 2024-25 total of 30.9".

Rainfall amounts over the next week will depend greatly on final track / placement of upper low.  Slight positioning and speed differences will have big impact on who gets what.  Thinking a compromise of wet EURO / CMC vs. dry GFS is way to go at the moment as @bluewave said.

Pattern has potential to deliver or disappoint.  With the wind, low humidity and lack or rainfall over the last 2 weeks or so we could use a 1"+ soaking.

Nice time lapse of T-Storms moving through NYC early Saturday evening.

https://x.com/i/status/1916519549328896468

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I would think the first chance for any heat and I'm far from guaranteeing it then would be after about May 16th. Up until then it looks like the trough over southeast Canada, northern NE and the nw west Atlantic keeps backing up. The Euro went from developing the upper low to our west to developing it over the ne or western Atlantic. This pretty much cancels any heat chances until further notice. 

WX/PT

And if correct will also keep things on the drier side of normal on a NW flow.

41 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Anyone have the rainfall totals for the area?  I can never get the links when searching

Two day event totals.

Click to enlarge

Here is link:

https://www.cocorahs.org/

Two day total here was .60".  Not great but better than nothing.  Windy again with gusts into the mid 30's.

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Only .12 here so far, and radar doesn't look promising. Slight chance we get hit by a downpour this afternoon. If not we're going to end up with less than a quarter inch, which would be pretty disappointing. 

Little better here with .39" as of 7:30 this morning.  Doesn't look like much additional unless like you said a heavier downpour delivers.

Disappointing and not going to help the dryness to any degree. 

Temperatures look to be on the the cooler or at least seasonable side as we open May.

Hoping for a 1" soaking.  Will take .5" but will be disappointed with anything less.  Soil is dry.