MANDA

The AI modeling did horrible with Lee over the summer.  Several consecutive runs tried to plow a major hurricane into New England.  Eventually they came around to the actual outcome that most of the op models had a few days prior.  Use this AI stuff with caution.

44 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-71_metric_e.html 

It's currently feeling like -72F in Edmonton. -54F tonight and -58F tomorrow night in Edmonton without windchills. This is ridiculous cold. 

 

Remarkable really and well modeled almost a week out.

Temperatures near -50F across parts of Alberta this morning.  That is First Class, Grade A cold.  Something not seen every year that's for sure and certainly not in the recent past.

25 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Don,

 

I like stats... but these are depressing for NYC... when I keep reading these NYC stats... it's like it almost never snows in the city. I accept them as is and hoping we can expand the sample size soon.

 

In the meantime, not sure if anyone noticed that Don is projecting a warmer than normal Jan... but only maybe about a degree or so above.  The reason that is important... the first 11 days are averaging almost +5 in CP.  That means some noticeably brrrr weather is coming to getnthat average down to only +1 or so. 

Will check back in the morning. 

I noticed Walt and was thinking same as you.  Going to be some good "offsetting" cold.

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am concerned that the Euro is hanging too much energy back to the SW and it comes closer to the CMC in later runs.

 

That is a know bias with the EURO so definite possibility.

Expansive area of -30C to -40C cold across central Canada this morning.  Currently -43C at Yellowknife, NWT and -46C at Old Crow,YT.

Think it is safe to say the cold has moved to our side of the pole....at least for now.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

No matter our outcome for snow around here a notable cold shot will be affecting the central/western states and then will be moving eastward, albeit modified.

Some record cold across the nations mid section and down to the Gulf Coast.

Any snow cover laid down in front of it will only intensify the cold, especially overnight lows.

18 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The river was about to breach the low point of the Columbia Turnpike by the MMU airport this morning. I suspect later tonight or early tomorrow it will be closed.  

That area can flood badly.  Used to work weekends at ION Weather at the base of the airport tower and saw it flood several times in the early to late 90's.  The area from the Cadillac dealer to Airport Road used to be impassable.  Horrible detours.  Usual 20 min drive would take me 60 minutes with zero traffic at 5am.

I’m rooting for my weather app!  

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A lot of the river areas in Northern NJ were resort areas for people in the city during the 40's and 50's when people would vacation out in the country. That is when a lot of these areas were built up. It was a quiet period without a lot of major flooding and you could actually swim and fish in the Pompton river without fear. Then the  60's were bad with floods with 1968 being the worst. And then you had an almost 20 year quiet period until the big flood of 1984 which set records that were only broken with Irene in 2011. That's the problem. You can sometimes get a 10-20 year stretch with no issues and then a period like this happens with two major floods in less than a month and the potential for more in this pattern.

This pattern better break soon.  Any more of these 1-2" rains in any kind of rapid succession is going to be a big problem for rivers across our area.

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that plus retrograding blocks are one of the most difficult situations to figure out for the models. 

So agree.  Retrograding blocks are a big wildcard and difficult for LR/MR models to get a good handle on.  I think the possibilities for next Tuesday are pretty much wide open at this point.  Would not expect a hint of clarity until 12Z Saturday cycle - maybe even 00Z Sunday.

14 minutes ago, North and West said:

How did everyone do regarding power and sump pumps?

 

3.41" - Pump ran and did its job.  Did not lose power so generator did not kick in to save the day.  Pump does not run frequently here.  Except for Ida rains it rarely ran in the 5 years prior.  Lately has been running much more frequently.

Rainfall 3.41" here.  Winds were nothing horrendous.  Estimated some max gusts to 30 mph.  Was expecting a little higher.  Power remained on.

Ground is just saturated. 

Raining heavily here at the moment.

Winds over SNJ along the Delaware Bay currently gusting to 40-50 mph.

Well inland here and the trees are swaying noticeably at times.  Occasional gusts to 25 mph I am estimating.  I have elevation and am wide open from to the SE through the NW.  Thankfully no trees within falling distance to the house, builder pretty much cleared to the woods line.

56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

50/50 ULL with decaying block shows up afterwards. just need a strong wave

Ideally a nicely timed phasing of a moist southern branch feature and northern stream s/w.  Am I asking too much ?!

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

12z HREF Forecast Precipitation (24-hours):

Very concerning for those in NNJ who are affected by river flooding.  Street and highway (urban flooding) is one thing but when a river overflows into your house that is something else.  Feel bad for those affected.  Stress level must be through the roof.  Me personally if I went through it once I'd be out of there.

For those still looking for cold air on our side of the pole currently Yellowknife is sitting at -40F and -47 at Fort Good Hope.

The cold is coming to the western and central U.S. and down to the gulf coast in a big way.  Direct and fast discharge S.S.E.  It will eventually seep / ooze east but the western and central states from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico are going into the deep freeze with record breaking cold.  Hope the power grids are ready.  Especially the wind turbines in Texas.  They didn't do so well last time this happened.  Temperature departures of -50 to -70 looking more likely over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.  Bitter cold day for Iowa Caucus.  Below zero!

Snow pack in my area.  Currently 4.5" - 5" of snow pack remains at my house.

Can't speak for areas to my north and west but the snow pack here is heavily crusted over.  It almost supports my weight (160#) when I walk over it,  I only make minor indentations.  My point being I'm not sure how much rainfall it will absorb at least initially.  Going to be a good deal of runoff as the heavy rains get underway.  Again, not sure what the condition of the 6-12" snow pack is to my NW.  Just thought it was worth a mention.

Always like a visible satellite pic day after a snowstorm.

Final storm stats:

Two day snowfall = 7"

Two day melted = 1.22"

Final (more or less as light snow still ongoing off and on) Snowfall = 6".  Depth at 8am = 5.5".

Will update melted total shortly.

Went to rain at 8:15 last evening with 3.8".    Went back to snow and at 3am was 6".    Settled and compacted to 5.5" at 8am obs. time.

Very heavy and wet snow pack.

Moderate rain here, mixed with some sleet.  Change over about 8:15.  Measured 3.80” at 8:15 when I heard sleet mixing in.  Currently all rain and 32 degrees.  We’ll see if I can pickup a bit more snow tomorrow morning.  Not expecting much though.  

Light to moderate snow ongoing.  29 degrees.  

2.5" as of 6pm measurement.  Guess is another 1" since that time.

Will measure again at 9pm.

My forecast of 4-6" for MBY seems on track.

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

It's raining there now?

Looks like snow is falling in the lights but melting on the pavement.