MANDA

Windows open last night!  Nice and cool this morning.  Overnight low of 55 degrees with light breeze and low DP'S.

Can't beat it for mid August.

Picked up just .40" yesterday.  Total for August to date is 6.35".  Pleasant stretch of weather ahead !

Best bet at this point is to watch the ensembles for trends over the next 5 days or so.  You will then get a general idea of what to expect with this and if it might ever become a threat to the U.S.

As of now pure speculation.

41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Some pictures from Tioga County PA where major flooding is occuring. 

Could have been across our area had the track not shifted to the left by a rather decent distance over the last few days.  Final track a far cry from original offshore track.

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro recurves up 70W and then at 240 heading in direction of SE Canada.

Close enough at 7-10 days out.  Debby made a marked shift left compared to original tracks in less than 5 days.  Worth watching.  Nothing has even formed yet....when it does and where it does will have implications one way or the other. 

Periods of rain (mostly light but sometimes moderate) dropped another .66".  Up to 5.95" for the month.

Looking forward to scouring out this tropical humidity and getting some seasonable or below temps with nice low DP's.

Some nice cooler nights to open the windows for a change.

Based on the totals over Hunterdon County last 24 hours....never under estimate the potential from tropical downpours.  They can easily over perform.  Totals of 1 to 1.5".

Could be an active day of weather tomorrow.  Gusty winds, heavy downpours, local flooding and potential severe.  Reverence @wdrag post from earlier.

Based on the totals over Hunterdon County last 24 hours....never under estimate the potential from tropical downpours.  They can easily over perform.  Totals of 1 to 1.5".

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Some heavier showers moving in from western nj

Confirmed.  Friend in Pittstown says it is pouring.

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hoodie weather today feels like a october day..

Cue the "weenie tags" in 3....2....1

From poking around into some of the rainfall totals from last evening although not near as widespread as Ida but it seems some rainfall rates and totals approached or exceeded those from IDA.  Very localized though.  Had it been more widespread could have been a serious situation across a large part of this sub forum.  Still quite impressive in my opinion.

From poking around into some of the rainfall totals from last evening although not near as widespread as Ida but it seems some rainfall rates and totals approached or exceeded those from IDA.  Very localized though.  Had it been more widespread could have been a serious situation across a large part of this sub forum.  Still quite impressive in my opinion.

Last 24 hours.  You can click to enlarge.

Last 24 hours.  You can click to enlarge.

Received 3.42" last 24 hours.  Roughly 2.5" of that fell in about 30 minutes last evening.  Highly variable totals around my area.

Total so far for August = 5.04".

Received 3.42" last 24 hours.  Roughly 2.5" of that fell in about 30 minutes last evening.  Highly variable totals around my area.

Total so far for August = 5.04".

Not going out but eyeballing the gauge looks like 2.5" in about 25 minutes!  Still raining hard but not as intense as it was.

Deluge ongoing.  Nearing 1" real fast.  Coming down in torrents with some gustier breezes.

Getting dark here and from the looks of radar a band of heavier rain is aimed in my direction.  Will keep ya posted.

Outflow boundaries all over the place and storms blowing up along them.

The rain is certainly torrential under the heavier bands but they are moving.

Some places in this forum are going to have 8 day totals (Saturday to Saturday) of 7"+.

I'm at 1.62" as of now and that is a lower end total compared to some.

9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Concerning look.

Latest WPC holding steady with excessive totals.  Thankfully this is spread out over a few days but even so river flooding could be major concern.

Latest WPC holding solid on excessive totals. 

24 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

well no one expected Ida to cause those issues so definitely people should be aware of that for Tuesday night and looks like Thursday night

Ida rains well well advertised at least 48 hours in advance.  Most guidance was printing out intense and excessive totals over a short time.  Maybe not the precise location but the threat was very real.

As to the actual effects from the intense short term rainfall I don't think anyone could grasp in advance how bad it was going to be.  I believe it was labeled a 1 in 1000 year event but don't quote me on that.  At least a 500 year event.  The death toll in NJ alone was beyond belief.