MANDA

My friend in Mt. Laurel is finally on the board.  Ripping snow down there.  He picked up 1" in the last 30-45 minutes and has about 1.3" on the ground. 

Pittstown 4.5" and light snow currently.

Moderate snow.  23 degrees.  Just measured 4.8”.

2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Fast mover indeed.  Looks like the heaviest line may move just slightly east of NYC, missing NE Jersey?

Based on radar I think my area is wrapping it up between the 9 and 10:00 hour.

Latest from my buddy in Pittstown,  NJ Hunterdon County:

Just shy of 4".  He says light to moderate snow currently.

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Have some confidence.  N shore of LI will do well... might see some 4 and 5s...not done there til at least 1A. 

Yes.  Just be a little patient.   Friend down in Mt. Laurel is really sweating it out.  Just a coating down there so far.  He is in a far more perilous situation of getting ripped off.  By ripped off I mean <2".

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm sorry to hear of your sister-in-law's stroke. I wish her a full recovery.

@weatherpruf Same.

For the most part I think this forecast is going to work out fine.  Some spots will be on low end of range and some spots close to high end.

Question if anyone sees 8" based on radar though.

My 4-6" forecast is going to work out fine for Morris county.  I am currently just a a little over 4.  Expect to finish near 6, maybe a bit more.

Moderate snow.  Small flakes.  26 degrees.  Total 3.5”.

Per friend in Pittstown, NJ Hunterdon County.  Heavy snow now.   He has just under 3" currently.

Going out to take measurement here.  Be back in a few.

16 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

Ratios dude. Baseline of 10-1; but perhaps push to 12-1. 

Moderate snow and down to 27.

Eyeballing 1 to 1.5”

Light to borderline moderate snow here currently.  Temperature 31.5.  Even the heavily salted road in my neighborhood is now lightly covered.

Holding rock solid on my 4-6" forecast for my area of Morris County, most of the county in fact.  See no reason to change up or down at this point.

As for the State of Emergency in NJ not sure WTH is up with that. 

24 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I ride with you on the 4-6 if I remember correctly your location. I would be very happy with that. 

I would be happy with the 4-6 for sure especially since unlike most of the events so far this season this one will stick around for a solid week.  Most other events this season were either all gone in 48 hours or better than 50% gone in 48 hours.  This is going to stick around with a solid snow pack for a while and will greatly aid in radiational cooling Tuesday and Wednesday night.  Not a KU event by any means but a good old fashioned cold near warning criteria snow event for a lot of places.

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yikes. Lots of weenie suicides by the northwest crew if this verifies 

I'm playing it more conservative than most around my area.  Still going with 4-6".  There is still model uncertainty and this is going to be a fast mover.  Dynamics are good but not off the charts.  I'm comfortable with 4-6" around here.  We'll see how it plays out.

7 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I’m going to keep replying to you as we are basically neighbors in Morris County; this will be the biggest event of the season for our area thus far.

Enjoy it and don’t get lost in the model to model differences. 6+” coming for us in my humble opinion. 

Agreed.  Looking good around here.  Been thinking 4-6" since after 12Z guidance yesterday.  Still thinking that this morning.  Would be surprised if less than 4 around here but could see a bit more than 6 IF everything fell into place.    My largest event so far this season has been 6.5" on 11/22-11/23.  Followed by 5.2" on 12/21.  We'll see if either of both of those get moved down the list.

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NWS ensemble probabilities issued this morning for various minimum thresholds of snow. These are pretty high for D3.

I hope this works out ok. Much of eastern LI might be suppressed to an inch or so by rain and milder temps. You'll know better. Am off-line much of the next 3 days. 

Thanks Walt.  I like where this is heading / trending.  Especially for our part of the sub forum.

Very light snow ongoing here.  Just shy of .20" on the day.  Cold - 21 degrees.

Had a period of steady very light snow with sun dimly visible a while ago. Left a coating on most everything except road and walks that had remaining salt.  Les than .10".  Just flurries now.  Cold with temperature of 22.

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

It was posted in jest to emphasize how everything has been south of us this winter 

I know, my post was mainly sarcasm for what was a "Buckle Up" period.  Gut tells me cold is going to overwhelm the pattern.  Certainly not ruling out some light totals over the coming week but I think most of us are looking for something more meaningful.  Certainly whatever we get the next week or so will stick around for a while with the impending Arctic blast.

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

serious question why is the ICON even posted here. 

Desperation? Grasping at straws? Clinging to something?

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

All good but it's 9 days away.   

Isn't it always ? !