MANDA

10 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I have to say this is a very good post and exactly reflects my thoughts that I have been sharing to others. 

The message isn't usually received positively lol

I think the snow seasons over the next 10-15 years will be telling in terms of where we are truly headed or if this current period is just a temporary downturn.  I suspect through that we are slowly and steadily trending downward.  At some point it should hopefully revert to something better but I would not want to guess when that might happen.

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Any way to do both?

I know you obviously understand the difference, but I'm not sure everyone gets the difference between a six inch calendar day and the time period between six inch events, overlapping midnight. The same for four inch events. 

That would be great if Don can do it.

52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I thought the question concerned consecutive days without 6" or more snow. Obviously, the intervals between 6"+ storms is shorter

Don.  Yes that was my original question.  You are correct.

Do you have the ability to make a chart for intervals?  Both for 4" and 6"?

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how is 1917-18 on this list, wasn't that an exceptionally cold and snowy winter?

I see how three prior periods of my life are on this list though:

 

1983-1986

1987-1990

1996-2000

 

Without a couple of storms, 1983-1990 could have been number 1 lol.

 

That chart is interesting in many ways.

Not the least of which was #8 was broken by the Blizzard of 1888.

Lots of great stats inside that list.

Found it really interesting.

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC is still far from its record:

Thanks very much.  We'll see how this plays out as we move through next Winter.  We will make it to #4 for sure by the end of this coming November so #3 could be in play without too much trouble.

The #1 position is interesting, would not have guessed that.

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will be cooler tomorrow through the weekend. However, it will turn noticeably milder early next week. Parts of the region could experience their warmest temperatures so far this spring. The unseasonably mild weather could then continue through the remainder of next week.

The risk of a moderate (4" or more) or larger snowfall in the New York City area remains low through at least the first half of March. The March 10-17 period could feature a bout of much above normal temperatures.

The strong PNA ridge that predominated for most of the second half of February has now broken down. However, the peak magnitude of that previous PNA ridge suggests that the New York City area likely won't experience any major snowfalls for the remainder of the 2024-2025 snow season. The historic experience hints that the rising warmth of spring becomes too great to overcome by the time an otherwise favorable pattern for such snowfalls develops.  

The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd and at or above +1.000 through February 28th. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the 2024-2025 snow season the fourth consecutive snow season without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during 2016-2017 through 2019-2020. Most of the 12 cases cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral ENSO conditions during early spring.

The SOI was +1.15 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.700 today.

 

Don-

Where is CP in terms of 6" snowfalls?  I know they are working on a longest streak without 4" which will most likely be broken in late November this year I think?  What about longest streak without 6"?  Where do they stand on that one?

Thanks in advance.

11 minutes ago, Picard said:

Where everything is planted is in direct sunlight all day this time of year.  It only ever takes about three sunny days in the 40s come late February and there they are.  I had shoots in late January two years ago during a mild stretch.  They actually made it all the way through to bloom.

Same here.  South side of house, full sun and all bulbs have broken through the mulch.  Everything else in shadier parts of the yard = nothing.

Grass is still very much dormant.

Received 1.35" rainfall.  Much needed and so glad to get rid of all the disgusting road salt.  A car wash is in the cards this weekend.

Ready for Spring.

February precipitation = 3.14".  February snowfall = 5.70", spread out over 7 events.

Not sure any of that was worth buckling up for.

Pretty sad if you ask me.

44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's crazy how all the precip finds a way to miss

For the most part the trend since the late fall has been to show wet events only for it to gradually back off as the events near.  We'll see what happens with the event mid next week.  Right now looks wet, 1" plus but we'll see how it progresses as we get closer.  Pattern has been overall lacking in precipitation for months now.  Drought Monitor issued today showed no change over the last week with still widespread dry to moderate or severe drought Mid-Atlantic and New England.  Not a big deal now but two months from now if the dryness has not eased drought conditions will ramp up quickly once into May.  We need March and April to deliver with above normal rainfall over a pretty large area.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, LGA already set the new record for under 4” days this season currently at 1123 and NYC is getting close to their record.
 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Period of record: 1940-01-01 to 2025-02-25
1	1123	2025-02-25
2	1051	1963-12-22
3	761	2020-12-15
4	746	1952-02-29
5	744	1981-03-04
6	743	1998-03-21
7	742	2013-02-07
8	715	1974-02-07
9	701	1977-01-13
10	690	1943-01-27

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-02-25
1	1394	1932-12-16
2	1123	2025-02-25
3	1063	1952-01-27
4	1051	1963-12-22
5	794	1956-03-15
6	743	1998-03-21
7	742	1920-02-03
8	687	1981-01-06
9	685	1974-01-08
10	680	1954-01-10

Thanks!

Any idea where CP stands on <6"?

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will take Islip longer than NYC.

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 5 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1503	1969-12-28 through 1974-02-07
2	1205	1989-11-24 through 1993-03-12
3	1123	2022-01-30 through 2025-02-25
4	1061	1984-03-29 through 1987-02-22
5	1000	2018-03-22 through 2020-12-15
6	758	1997-02-15 through 1999-03-14
7	744	1979-02-20 through 1981-03-04
8	742	2011-01-28 through 2013-02-07
9	689	1967-03-23 through 1969-02-08
10	655	1999-03-16 through 2000-12-29

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 5 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-02-25
1	1394	1929-02-22 through 1932-12-16
2	1123	2022-01-30 through 2025-02-25
3	1063	1949-03-01 through 1952-01-27
4	1051	1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22
5	794	1954-01-12 through 1956-03-15
6	764	1996-02-17 through 1998-03-21
7	761	2018-11-16 through 2020-12-15
8	744	1979-02-20 through 1981-03-04
9	742	2011-01-28 through 2013-02-07
-	742	1918-01-23 through 1920-02-03

 

 

I may have missed it but where does CP stand for consecutive days with <4" of snowfall?

That record is still ongoing right?

Thanks in advance.

It's time.

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

So far: This looks pretty accurate...

Spot on for my location.  Sitting at 29.4".

Finished with .40" and melted of .03".

My street has a ton of salt on it this morning and no rain for at least a week to ensure a dusty mess until further notice.

Pretty much just flurries here now.  Just measured.40”.  Could be a tad more or a tad less as it is extremely light and fluffy and winds are gusty at times so it is blowing around pretty good.  The .40” seems like a good average measurement.  Temp currently at 16.5.

Had a period of light snow over the last hour.  Everything covered.  Just measured .10”.   Currently still S- and 19 degrees.

5 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Per my dad in Lexington, VA; snow and closing in on 2”. 

Puts him over 16” for the month! 

I've got 5.3" for the month and the largest "storm" was 2".

Sad.

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Thankfully looks like only minor injuries

Nothing short of a miracle. 

Power outages ramping up. Wiind is howling here.  Power on.

Going to be bad for places with still a lot of icing  on trees.

Finally up to 33 here.  Some pictures of the woods out in the backyard.  Nothing extreme but trees are ice coated and sagging.

Just got back from a few errands and passed a tree limb that had downed a power line in Randolph.  Police and utility crew were on the scene.

1:15 and still below freezing here.  Currently 31.5.  Has been between 30.5 and 31.5 all morning.  Ice not accumulating at any kind of rapid rate but up to about .10" here.  Maybe a tad more.  Paved / concrete surfaces just wet.  Trees are drooping with the ice accumulation, nothing drastic but very noticeable. 

Have to say KUDOS to Walt.  He had this nailed for days suggesting temperatures were going to struggle today.  I will be paying closer attention to the EC-AFIS 2M temps going forward.  Great work on his part!

Light freezing rain currently.  Temp 28.  Very light glaze on pretty much everything.  New snow has been squashed down from .80” to .50”.

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Feb 11, 1983 wasn't locked in till a day or so before.....

That storm was not locked in until the afternoon of.  The LFM lost it on the night before.  I remember it very well.  The morning of nobody was predicting 12" for NYC, never mind 20".  I THINK maybe forecasts the morning of were in the 3-6" range.