MANDA

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Nov 20-Dec 12...CoCoRaHs rainfall looks like general 5-6.5" over the area in 3 weeks...  that to me is easing the drought. 

 

Also...am pretty sure of a wintry hazard I80 northward in NJ into se NYS early Monday..light snow and ice...minor hazard but prior frozen ground assists with temps still near freezing at 7A Monday the 16th. 

There was no movement in the Drought Monitor issued yesterday but the most recent rains were not figured into it.  Should be some improvement in next weeks issuance.  These are some nice 3 week totals.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

All the guidance is starting to show a warmer +EPO +AO pattern in later December as it looks like the TPV is trying to consolidate. 
 

Not at all unexpected.  I do admire the optimism around here though.

1 hour ago, David-LI said:

Are you being serious or sarcastic? Because this storm is so far out that IF it actually happens, this map will change dozens of times both in intensity and location.

Very sarcastic.

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Great example of a long range OP GFS outlier run among its ensemble mean.

I used to doodle maps like this op run when I was in the 5th. grade!

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I printed this out from my basement 

Shit.  Heaviest totals once again to my southeast.  Dammit!  I was hoping for at least 30" here.

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems windier today than yesterday 

Winds howled here last evening once the front went through.  Briefly lost power.  Gusty all night and still gusty this morning.  Much winder behind the front then out ahead of it yesterday around here.

1.2" yesterday. 

Two day total = 1.82"

Three day total = 2.21".

Rainfall yesterday was 1.2".  Three day event total = 2.21".

More heavy rain approaching my area from the west.

Pouring here with winds gusting to about 25 mph. Rain pelting against the house.

Based on radar it is not going to last long but right now it is heavy.

Just posting story link here since others have posted that they have seen the drones.  I've not seen any.

Interesting.  Seems far beyond just hobbyist drone flyers.  Not sure what is up with so many flying around.

Feel free to remove if too far off topic.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14181799/drones-new-jersey-state-emergency-ufo-ocean-sighting.html

Skinny "squall line" about ready to push through my area.  Expecting some heavier rain and some gusty winds.

.62" as of 8am.  Two day total = 1.01".  Winds minimal.  A few gusts to 20-25 mph. 

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Would you be shocked if the EPS looks absolutely nothing at all like that operational run? 

Nope.  Wouldn't be shocked either if the next op model cycle looked nothing like the current one.

10 day OP runs are bad enough and now we have added the EURO going out to 15 days along with the GFS.  Pure fantasy.  I'm all for pushing the limits of science but these 10 and 15 day op runs are essentially useless.  The ensembles are better but even they flip from cycle to cycle a lot of the time.

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like we are on our way to the same old crap Decembers we have come accustomed to recently. Keep expectations low for this winter. Hopefully we get a favorable period in January. 

Key here is "keep your expectations low"

Not saying there can't be a few surprises but I'm not seeing anything right now that is offering a prolonged BN temperature regime or a  favorable pattern for east coast snowstorms.  Again, a few well timed systems with cold air could certainly deliver.  Overall though the pattern is looking similar to the last several winters.

Had .39" here last 24 hours.  Just about what I was expecting.  #happy

Well the latest Euro 360 is on the crack pipe.  Let's watch this day by day and see where it goes.  Verbatim would be very cold and potentially stormy Christmas holiday period.  I'll take the under at this point.  

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this trend is bringing strong southerly winds and convection in play for us

Westward shifts like clockwork.

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Personally I'm not rooting for a historic cold outbreak. I just want it cold enough to snow, even if only by a degree.

Subzero cold? I worry about my pipes.

 

In addition to frozen pipes historic cold is often dry, granted historic cold can sometimes end with something big but that is the exception rather than the rule.   Modest cold with a good storm track will be a win around here.

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wet week on tap

Will be interesting to see if heavier totals back west in future model runs.  Certainly that has been the trend (excluding the current dry pattern of the last 2 months) over the past two years, for things to trend west.  Especially on the GFS.

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I know you were joking, but that strong aleutian low is definitely not la nina. Something else is driving this. 

yes, was really just joking about how ugly it looked. 

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

is the La Niña in the room with us?

In the room?  Looks more like it has taken over the house.

Ugly.

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course DT is going for another cold/snowy winter in the east. This is how many in a row he’s done this now? 10? Then if it’s obvious that it’s not going to work out, he will completely bail on his forecast, say he miscalculated something and viciously attack anyone who disagrees with him….curse them out on twitter, demean them, wish cancer and covid on them. It’s the same old routine with him every winter

Nasty, twisted guy and I NEVER post stuff like this but he is just nasty in addition to the the fact that he is seldom right about anything.

12 hours ago, Monty said:

What's Cioffi up to these days? He was the backup to Alan Kasper on 1015 growing up, and is a better forecaster than Dan Zarrow, but I haven't heard much from him. 

Living in Georgia and doing his podcast thing.  Great forecaster.

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

DT was on the Joe Cioffi show this evening talking about the pattern. He loves a big change to colder and snowier at the end of this month and next month .

https://www.youtube.com/live/mWL0xRd1dSs?si=Yh5-ifZrT0JFeNSx

Surprised Joe would stoop so low.