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HKY_WX

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by HKY_WX

  1. HKY_WX
    It's quickly reorganizing but going to run out of water before it can ramp back up too much.
  2. HKY_WX
    It will be interesting to see if the ocean starts creeping up on that cam as the winds switch north.
  3. HKY_WX
    I'm assuming it's just ESE of that location. It's facing the ocean, so that wind is probably coming from the ENE switching to N soon
  4. HKY_WX
    That 50 mile wide swath of the eyewall will carve a path through the island unlike we've seen before. I bet satellite pictures in a few days will show it almost like a tornado path. Will be sad.
  5. HKY_WX
    I think I am less worried this go around given the elevation. he can likely avoid the surge pretty easily down there. As long as he's in a reinforced concrete building he should be fine.
  6. HKY_WX
    I can't convince myself to sign up for TikTok, even to watch streams of the strongest Hurricane landfall in history.
  7. HKY_WX
    Where is he located?
  8. HKY_WX
    I'm sure Josh or another chaser has a handheld barometer onsite. If so, we could have ground truth of the strongest or 2nd strongest landfall ever in the Atlantic basin. At least in recorded history.
  9. HKY_WX
    https://x.com/iCyclone?s=09
  10. HKY_WX
    Per Twitter, he settled on a concrete masonry building up on a hill. Def safe from surge i'm sure, but will be battling the wind. There's a chance he might catch the 2nd strongest Hurricane landfall ever. Think about that for a second. Unreal.
  11. HKY_WX
    Mind boggling. There are certain systems that defy the norms. This is def one of them. Not sure people are prepared for the scenes that will be coming out of Jaimaca. They've dogged the bullet so many times. Not this one.
  12. HKY_WX
    Twitter BS
  13. HKY_WX
    Not sure how much lower pressure the atmosphere can support down there. Assuming it can go close to 900mb. Just a sick setup. The depth of the warm water in that area is always off the chart.
  14. HKY_WX
    The eye appears to have gotten a bit smaller on Sat. Not sure if the vdm will confirm or not.
  15. HKY_WX
    12z EC/AI/Google Deep mind are pretty deadset on SW Jamaica (Would put the mid-point near White House, Jamaica). I don't see much variance among them today. Seems to be the spot.
  16. HKY_WX
    I'm not sure there are many good comparisons on this one other than Maria/PR and Dorian/Bahamas. Everyone knows how those turned out.
  17. HKY_WX
    Rainfall wise, the entire island is screwed which is the biggest killer in tropical systems. That portion will be pretty epic. The wind damage (at least the extreme portion of it) will likely be confined to the central and western end of the island.
  18. HKY_WX
    Kinda looks like the turn has happened or is in the process of happening now. Josh is camped out somewhere near Treasure beach i think, he usually has a good feel for where these things landfall. I like that area but just a bit west (I'm assuming he's trying to get in the eastern eyewall).
  19. HKY_WX
    Like most of these turns North, it will likely stall, wobble, and then start drifting North before accelerating.
  20. HKY_WX
    That's a good point, but most canes normally approach Jamaica from the east on a westward heading. At that trajectory it lends itself to the frictional land effects and wobbles away from the island. This one will be heading north as its caught up in the trough and the angle of approach will make that scenario unlikely. It's obviously still possible though. The only beneficial factor wind wise would be some small weakening on approach but rainfall wise they are completely effed.
  21. HKY_WX
    This has the feel of Maria before it hit Puerto Rico.
  22. HKY_WX
    This is my neck of the woods. We had a little over 5.
  23. HKY_WX
    Total here was about 5.25
  24. HKY_WX
    Mod to Hvy snow up here in Franklinton. I think we might get up to another 2" out of these bands today. Crazy rates.
  25. HKY_WX
    Gorgeous 20250220_105821.mp4
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