packbacker

Interesting 11-16 day pattern on the GEFS...looks a lot like this past week which is setting up a real cold next 10 days.  Another round Jan 15 and on?  

EPS looks nothing like this

Wish the Euro would run before the other models, that way we would know whether to bother looking at the GFS/CMC/Navgem/Pokemon.

Only 10 more days until we get back to our normal warmth and hopefully we don't see another BN winter day until 2020.

Snow hunting in Raleigh has gotten beyond pathetic.  Need a better hobby...

Figured start posting in this thread, 2017 wasn’t a good year for winter weather in Raleigh so let’s hope 2018 brings better luck.  Can’t see how it can get worse.  

We have seen trailing waves swinging around the base of a trough work before and trend better from this range.   The Jan 4-6 potential looks to have marginal cold per Euro/EPS and we know how that works outside of nwNC/SC/GA.  For us Raleigh folks the Jan 1-2 event looks like it for atleast a few weeks.

Trends over past 48 for day 6-7 has been for better west coast ridge and deeper east trough. 

NAM is really cranking out the precip in the central/eastern Carolina's.

LOL...0z NAM.  Raleigh getting NAM'd...like salt in the wounds.

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's a bit too warm near the sfc IMO. I didn't realize the HRRR had warmed when I typed that. That warming makes more sense to me in all honesty 

Rainy afternoon for some per the 0z HRRR...maybe some flakes mix in at times, hopefully.

15 minutes ago, griteater said:

Weird to me that the GFS and Euro globals are warmer than the hi-res HRRR and NAM (GSP to CLT).  It's usually the other way around.  It being flipped would make sense if we had cold air damming....but we don't

* Stands up and flips table *

Looking at the free maps on weather.us for the Euro I see CLT stays below 0C for duration from 700-925mb?  Looks cold to me?

12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

past 2 hrrr runs have really warmed for much of nc for tomorrow. 

21z run:

 

23z run:

 

Precip was very heavy on the 21z run at that hour.  It will probably end up warming but I think that's the reason on the 23z run.

A little surprised RAH doesn’t have the triad in a WWA, pretty much every model has a big winter event for GSO to INT.  Seeing the RGEM is nuts

6 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

I'm really sorry if it comes off that way. I try not to poop on anyone's parade and nothing would be cooler than to see a system that gets THIS WHOLE SUBFORUM involved. That's just hard to do. I've tried to keep quiet on this one for the most part. I think I'll have mixing issues too here in the foothills. When it comes down to it, everyone roots for each other but everyone wants THEIR yard covered.

I really do hope you Raleigh guys see snow. You're due. You deserve it.

 This one was never going to work out for us, glad it’s going beast mode so some folks can see snow. Not everyone can be happy...it’s going to suck for someone.  

Last January the NAM and the HRRR were great for showing the rain/snow cutoff.  The HRRR wouldn’t budge and it was right. 

Buckets...ColdRain, maybe for this winter we changd your name to HeavySnow.  This is a lot of cold rain.

Raleigh can almost sniff the snow/ice...

For Raleigh this sure is a cruel way to start this winter after last January bust....NAM/GFS both shows 30 hours of mid/low 30's of really cold rain.  

http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Krdu.txt

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Man crazy to watch the trough take a bend backward in the last frame there, in an attempt to try and go neutral. 

To bad...if that piece of energy diving in over Wisconsin was diving in over Minn it might be different.  

11 minutes ago, Wow said:

NW trend with the SREF

GEFS still in the slow down and closer to coast mode...

1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

A 3-4" snow mean in South TX ? That can't be right ?

Yep...

Nice mean...

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

And the 18Z NavGEM looks more west than the 12.  At least we know some models, even if it’s the bad ones aren’t giving in  

Wow...closed southern upper low.

RGEM meteo for Atl...snow all day Friday.

RGEM look solid for the ATL...

The euro is definitely keeping the ns low separate from the southern piece...hmmmm.

Today's 12z

Yesterday's 12z

5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

So pack, you're saying there's a chance still huh?

Honestly sounding like 'dripping snow' at best for our area---If we're lucky

Be interesting to see the ensemble mean on this one

Going to be really tough for us, even with the Euro track.  I think it will be probably back towards 85 with a narrow wet/snow band.

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Op Euro since the upgrade 2 winters ago in systems that aren’t overly strong at the surface has tended to have a flat bias.  I think the ensembles are definitely going to be more north and west.   The Euro also tends to make slow adjustments.  Sometimes if models are catching onto the setup late the Euro can still be making adjustments inside 12-18 hours 

At 48-60 hours?   This should be in its wheelhouse now.  I would be surprised if the EPS is much further west and would expect spread to decrease.  I also think the snow axis will shift west as the precip will be further west I bet and eastern side wide will be warmer.