packbacker

19 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

^eps has an Aleutian low.

Day 10 but not after that.  Pretty much every analog for e-nina with e-qbo is a torch for Feb, so it makes sense.  EPS/GEFS may push back the change a few days but by the 20th, winter is over in the MA/SE. Woohoo!

Just now, DopplerWx said:

hrrr has shifted precip east each of the past 4 runs, very similar to the new nam. uh oh...

Well the NAM's are going to really tick east.  The southern h5 low initialized much weaker then previous run and more positively tilted.  The 3km will whiff PGV.  What a terrible bust for this will be for them.

Crud...kids get out 2 hours early for snow.  They were crushed last year after the Jan debacle and now have to explain there won't be any snow...they can go play in the leaf pile I guess.

Just noticed 12km shafts PGV.

Just now, rduwx said:

I'm trying to stay positive but just have this feeling we're not going to see much in the RDU area.  I told myself I wasn't going to get sucked into weather this winter and here I am again.

I said the same thing...we are like degenerate gambles, we just can't pass up a good craps table.   

12km sees the Wake Co snow shield...LOL

What the heck

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

LR GFS back to a dry look after Monday! But the Sunday night event looks a little icy in the damming regions and seems to be getting icier about every run! The stale cold air could make some in -situ wedging 

Now we are getting somewhere...10 more days of winter and it's hello spring.  GOA low, big eastern ridge.  

3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's coming west, I promise!

LOL...SLP’s ticked West, NAM and RGEM but precip ticked east.  We are a bunch of suckers.  

Feels like Jan 2000...just without the snow.  

9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It’s unbelievable really...how difficult it is to get legit snow here.

UK came in a tick NW and stronger then 12z.  Waiting on QPF, but somehow the precip will be confined to east of HAT/ILM.  

RGEM was deflating.  Nothing like the 3km NAM.  More like the Euro.  Been burned more times by the NAM’s....

Just now, Cold Rain said:

It will get better.  Give it time.

3km is going to track it over HAT.  The NAM's are usually to tight with the NW qpf and I hope this is the case again.

1 minute ago, Disco-lemonade said:

lol nam qpf is always wrong at this range

It's usually to high, not to low.

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Did you not read my post on the previous page?  Hmmmm?

About bringing the goods?  The SLP track was super terrific but the QPF sucks rocks...

Ummm....I will take it but a track just off HAT should be more then 0.2" of QPF....what the heck?

Just now, Cold Rain said:

Did you not read my post on the previous page?  Hmmmm?

NAM is going to track this just off HAT and I don't see the wow QPF "we got Namd" 

NAM out to 18...it looks a little different but have no clue how this will turn out.  I am not getting that wow factor though. 

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

January 2000 gets mentioned 10,000 times a winter.

 

I know...that and March 93 will never occur again in our lifetimes.  Hard enough to just get an 1" of snow nowadays.

17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It’s simple.  We suck.

Nobody sucks this bad...do they.  I almost hope 95 gets 8” and we get partly sunny.  That way we can keep our whinefest. 

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

And then seeing this last minute jog east.  I want to see continued jogs west, Namnit!

Only we can get slp shifting west with qpf gradient shifting east.  This starts, whatever this is, in 24 hours.  We aren’t even under a WWA.

7 minutes ago, shaggy said:

I hope you guys get in on the game as long as its from precip expansion and not low shifting too much to the left. Us eastern guys got shafted in December and need some redemption.

There is zero chance of this shafting you guys...you guys want it west too, more QPF.  Even if you guys taint with some sleet, big deal.  Would rather have 1" QPF with half snow/sleet then 0.3" qpf of just snow.  This is a slam dunk big winter storm for you guys, unless you see models tick back east and you only get like 0.2" qpf.

Feel like I am watching a Wolfpack game...down 20 at half, make a furious rally to get within a bucket and ....

Just great...finally get some precip heading our way and it's to warm for snow.  Atleast by end of Jan winter will be over...set your watch to a warm Nina Feb.

10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah it’s unbelievable really.  It’s unbelievable how when we need a west trend, we get east.  And when we need an east trend, we get west.  We’re going to mid this one by a few miles’ worth of wave interaction.  Pretty much stick a fork in it now.

Really just become indifferent to snow.  Don’t know what to say...I honestly can’t imagine us getting a 2-4” event, ever....forget about a 6”+.  Would say climate change but Atlanta just cleaned up.  This is going to be a rapidly deepening low that will be east.  Dec event was a fire hose but ended up being 2” of 34F rain.  Last Jan had the west  shift inside 24 hours and ended up being our biggest bust.  Been going on for years now where we just miss or get a nuisance sleet storm. 

Isobars seem to be bending up to the OBX.  We can pretend it deepens to 970 off HAT.