packbacker

Just now, wncsnow said:

 

LOL...ColdRain and I get the 7-10 split.  #snowhole

3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Are there any good reasons to live in Raleigh?

Sure...just not for snow. 

3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That isn't a trend , is it!?

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Hahaha

GFS been trending west like a son of a gun though.  It’s amounted to partly cloudy skies for us.  

RGEM really stout leading wave.  Healthy snows in se GA/SC.  Need better maps to come 

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Bedtime!

Going to watch the first half.  Watch the GFS whiff east then hit the hay.  

RGEM looks solid.  Not as nuts as 3km but has light precip back to CLT/GSO, kicker trough looks east enough...I hope.  

Just now, wncsnow said:

20% of that would be awesome.  

Just now, Cold Rain said:

Clempsun might not score.

Bama came to play...Saban don’t forget. 

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

That looks pretty good.

LOL...well it ended up going nuts so...

This is what I thought/hope things would look like on the globals tonight.   3km isn’t on roids but still a solid small event. 

Would totally take this and run.  Flurry fest and cold.  Great snow hole between VA and SC   

This is usually when things go sideways for Raleigh, so figured NAM’s would do this.  I still think we can maybe see some flakes but even that is a long shot. 

Well there is a fairly good consensus now on the timing of the sw’s.  Hopefully eastern SC/NC gets hit good still.  

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Goodnight Pack!!

LOL...going to be a whiff it looks like.  All hail GFS/Euro.  It doesn’t snow in Raleigh...never will.  But I do think east of 95 gets a couple off inches when all said and done. 

Shifted east 30 miles.   These are so useless though.

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

You just know the Nam is going to cave.  You just know it.  It has to.

I feel a complete debacle tonight.   If NAM’s cave I am going to bed.   

38 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

No way the 0z NAM duplicates its 18z run. Going to be east.

I will buy into the NAM's tonight if they show what they showed at 12z for the 12km NAM and at 12/18z on the 3km NAM.  

The 21z SREF's ticked east some.  The ARW members really backed off quite a bit...has 2-3" mean for RDU with 6"+ for NE NC.  The NMB member mean actually went up quite a bit but the spread increased....it has 7 big members and 5 complete whiffs for all the Carolina's.

What I still don't get is the GEFS/GEPS are very close in there member plot but GEPS has much more precip further west.   Shift these 50 more miles that would be a pretty good look with 980-990 SLP's.  

And we got digimon back in our corner.  Right with the JMA and Navgem.  

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

LOL! Pack gonna be making sweet love to the 18z GFS! Nowhere near the NAM!

Shocking.   I do think the GFS is to far SE but the 3km NAM ain’t happening.  The UK/CMC blend is in the middle of all models.  

4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Those windshield wipers are blinding @packbacker

Your stupidity is just sad.  LOL.  

Keep hugging the NAM, see where that gets you.  

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Gonna suck for Savannah to get 24" , while you get flurries 

Flurries sounds good to me.  Or this might work out too...LOL.  If I get 2" out of this I will tattoo Mack rocks on my forehead.

And just like that...NAM says done with the west trend and starts ticking toward the EPS.  LOL at Mack...he thought it was going to get snow out of this.

Just now, Cold Rain said:

Yep. The Nam is about to go Boom.  It’s just faking Packbacker out right now.

LOL...why I am posting in here.  Panic is fun. In all seriousness the NAM is stronger with the trailing wave, interesting what happens due to that, if anything.  Also, has a spurious vort over KY which may be inhibiting it from the first wave going more neutral.  B

Just now, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, it was fun there for a little bit.  I have this feeling we’ll end up in the familiar place of being happy just to see a flurry.

Well the UK/CMC/CMC-E do bring us maybe 1-2" so that's probably the high end of what we see.  Euro/EPS aren't even close...these usually blend to each other.  95 and east looks good to me.

LOL...this is going to be big time east on the 18z NAM.  Huggers of the NAM beware