packbacker

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Pack said it was going to torch, and he's never wrong

It's a curse really...nice frisbee golf weather though.

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Nice, Pack!  You’ll be able to get that preemergent down.

Personally I think we will get another 7-10 cold shot end of Jan into Feb.  The GEFS still showing the -AO for the next 10 days.  We had a -EPO/-AO in Dec for 10 days, got another one in Jan for 10 days, think it happens one more time.  Though analogs say we are warm for Feb.

17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

What does the GEPS show for that same time period?  On PivotalWeather, it looks like a general trough in the east on that model.

Looks warm...trough in the GOA, those can be very stubborn to dislodge.  We are kind of following what happened last winter...couple of cold shots in December, first 10 days of January was cold, big east coast storm.  Then all out torch from mid-Jan through spring.  Last winter from mid Jan to March 1st I think our high was in the 70's half those days.  

Compare the GEFS 5 day extended mean with what we saw last winter from mid-Jan on....not good if you want cold anytime soon.  Well anytime after Sunday.

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro shows not as much torch and has - EPO

The -EPO on the Euro needs to go in the shop...this doesn't look like a -EPO.  This looks like spring...

24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Enjoy your flurries! This gonna be a big dog ice storm for N Ga and W Carolinas! You will be in the 40s by the time your half inch of rain arrives!

When your power comes back on Wednesday you can let us know how great the ice storm was.  

33-34F and driving rain on Sunday night sounds fun though.  It's what we do best. 

Cut off as it approaches but then opens up.  Should be some solid rain, I would hope.  Wash all this salt away.

GFS is 33-34F rain for a lot of area with heavy qpf.  Single digit dew points before all this starts too.  Should warm up very quick though with sliding HP.

11 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Where is Pack?  How much did he get, I wonder?

I got 1.5", most in 3 winters.  Nice event...now bring on spring.

That snowhole was tough...we could have been 3-4" if that band had shifted a little NE earlier.  Missed 5" by 20 miles I think.

17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I like to keep his quotes around the threads, so I can prove how wrong he is!

Cold is in Russia, that’s a shame.   Even in our warmest Nina’s we are good for  Feb dusting.  We got that going for us.

Just now, rduwx said:

pack!....

Just kidding pack!

LOL...I know, I think it's me too.  I honestly don't think it will ever snow here again, not saying it needs to be 10"+ event, but a 3-5" even between 85 and 95.  That seems like the impossible.

This is way more impressive then getting 1-2" of snow.  None of us in Raleigh would remember a 1-2" event but we will remember the snow hole.  That band to our west will eventually snow itself out and may bring us some flurries, but doubtful.

2 minutes ago, Solak said:

What are the chances of the event being over before the snow hole fills in?

 

Loop the radar, you can see the band to our southwest dying out.  50/50 we get blanked completely.   Probably a dusting though is my guess.  Maybe 70/30 for a blank.  

2 minutes ago, rduwx said:

When I look at the radar, I just have to laugh. 

The snowhole will be more impressive then 1-2” of snow.  I just expect it now...something always happens.  #snowshield.  

26 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/948661439471943680

Good lord. This is essentially the equivalent of the thing stopping, turning, and going around us.

Yep, that band will not lift NE   

This is how it snows north-south-east-west of us.  Happens far to often.  

It's running out of space to go now.

5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Pack and cold rain, send me pics of your flizzard man!

I will break out my telescope...it's a virga blizzard at 2500 ft. 

Just now, Tar Heel Snow said:

How is it physically possible for this to happen lol. I know we're only at the very beginning of this event, but like, this has to be deliberate, right?

Yep...every time.

The band to our SW will die out before it shifts over us, the band to our east should hit a brick wall as it gets just passed I95.  This is shaping up to be a classic Raleigh snow hole.

I love circular virga events around Wake Co.  I anticipate this to build more and more so it looks like a donut 

1 minute ago, No snow for you said:

I’m about to quit the weather. I have a client on the battery that already has 2 inches and now the euro gives them another 6. We haven’t gotten that in years at gsp. 

LOL...well this is like a 1 in 100 year event for them, bet it's great down there.  Hopefully we get 6" event before there next one.

Raleigh can't even do virga right.  It's almost made a complete circle.

I can smell the virga....only a matter of time.  

1 hour ago, uncjibble said:

It just got more and more depressing so I stopped at 6! I did find this one though, proof that we can get big snow in Raleigh!

 

 

Jackpot was 30 miles...this one sucked too.  We won’t be happy until it snows only in Wake County and it rains or dry slots everywhere else. And it has to do that like 17 times to even things up.  

13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Gonna be hilarious when I get more snow than Pack!!

Radar says it's possible!

Like I said...somehow, GSP to CLT to GSO to DCA will get more snow then RDU.  Always does.  And of course SAV and CHS.

Rule #1:   NAM's are only good for detecting warm noses.

11 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

That means cold and stormy in Alaska and ridge in the east, right?

TW

Yes.