packbacker

Ryan added vort maps for the Euro...will be helpful tracking our rain events this winter.

You can definitely see how this can get more amped the next couple of days....and you can see how this could be a weak miss.

18z GEFS mean through day 4.  

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

WOW!  At hour 84!

Would be nice...

Op Euro QPF...if nothing else it should be a wet SE Thursday-Saturday.

Still positively tilted but man is that close.  I would sacrifice a car topper for a big event for 85 and points west.

EPS looks a hair closer to coast of previous runs but might be just spread decreasing.  That's a fairly good track for central NC.

23 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I agree with you.  I don't think precip will be much of a problem, when it's all said and done.  Will there be a warm layer?  We don't know yet.  Will the system arrive at such a time as to have given CAA enough of a head-start?  We don't know yet.  Will the bulk of the precip fall at night?  It looks like it now, but that could change.  How heavy will the precip be?  We don't know yet, although, it will likely be heavy enough for effective dynamic cooling at some locales.  Where?  We don't know yet, although my best guess for an inch or three of snow (assuming all of these factors line up as favorably as possible) is a line from maybe Roanoke Rapids, to roughly Charlotte though the Upstate and Northern GA and west of there.  Still lots of questions to be answered yet.  This will likely be a very marginal situation, pretty much across the board, and very much rate driven.

Whatever trend doesn't give us snow...we can miss them in any which direction.    The good news I do think someone gets snow Friday/Saturday...my money would be in the GSP to foothills to Roanoke area.

GEPS with the NW trend...where it stops nobody know.

Euro with a little clipper love day 5 for NC. 

CR looks great!   Mosquitos in March. 

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

If I get  an inch of snow or more on the Thursday storm, I will never make another post on ANY weather boards! That's how sure I am of no snow! Y'all need to quit grasping at straws!! Mountains possibly, everyone else S of VA, NO!

Saving this post....your not in a bad spot, further west.  

It will be a real gut punch if March is blocky and BN....because no matter how much BN it still spells rain for us.

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Think Webber said, in a nutshell, we are screwed through mid month and the last half could be better!?

Went to re-read what Webber said...there storm thread for our warm rain on Thursday is a riot today.   

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Think Webber said, in a nutshell, we are screwed through mid month and the last half could be better!?

Just read that...potential strat driven pattern change, that will work one of these days, good a time as any.  Just to clarify, he just stated potentially, he didn't call anything, don't want to put words in his mouth.  

Thought his last snippet about how a Nino would be unprecedented for next winter was interesting.  That's his bread and butter, he knows enso stuff.  

7 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Just shows how bad the euro can be. What a massive shift.

Yeah, it's shifted pretty much every run now.  Was it close for you?

Well atleast prospects for someone in the east getting snow has gone up.   At this point I hope we skunk the rest of the winter, bank another dud winter and hope our luck changes next few years and get on a roll.  

4 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

+++++++QBO

It's always something though.  Hopefully next year we just have standard, ordinary, run of the mill indexes and I bet we score a nice storm at some point.  Last two years CRAZY nino, this year CRAZY +QBO.  Just need normal....unless it's CRAZY blocking, I'll take that. 

Good news is that we should have another +QBO.  Though after that, winter of 18/19 we should have a -QBO.  

1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

WTH happened with the models overnight?  Jeez! 

It's a mess that's for sure...looks like we may take it on the chin this winter.  Though, you had one great winter storm, RDU is sitting on 0.5"...LOL.

Low solar problems...only a few more years until a mini ice age.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/12/winter-is-coming-warns-the-solar-physicist-the-alarmists-tried-to-silence/

2 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

BTW, on another note..

I moved here about 5 years ago from the Triad. When I first started lurking these boards, I admit I didn't quite "get" the doom and gloom mentality of you Triangle posters. All this whining about warm noses and BL issues and always being on the line. I'd just shake my head at all the meltdowns/bittercasting and felt there was a little too much drama being generated. Blah blah blah. "It's gonna turn to rain! It always does, you just watch! Whaaa!" The fact there was so many of you didn't help. (Which BTW let to me choosing my username, lol)

But I'm finally starting to get it now.

I mean, every single one of these storms screws somebody around here. Every. Time. I've seen CH and Durham get nearly nothing while Mebane gets 5-6''. Another time I've seen CH and Durham get about that amount w/ N Raleigh getting a sloppy mess. And I won't even talk about those of you in S Wake, who I can't figure out why you're even here except that you must be addicted to pain. Why else would you put yourselves through this winter after winter?

TL;DR, I'm starting to get why some of ya'll complain so much.
 

LOL...won't take long to turn you bitter with snow here.  Past 7-8 years Wake has missed in every direction.  Par for the course around here now.

I grew up in Winston and when I was young pre teen I experienced the run from 78-89 where it snowed and snowed a lot.  90's came and I was in HS and didn't care about snow.  Then in Raleigh after college I experienced 2000-2004 which was as snowy a time as you can hope for.  Since then it's been our lowest 15+ year stretch RDU has had in 130+ years.  So good news we are breaking into some new lows...got to turn around sometime.  

One big positive...next time a winter storm is being modeled I can use "well you remember what happen in Jan 2017".  I should put that in my signature.  

And, next time we bust, and we will, we can say well at least it wasn't as bad as Jan 2017.  

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

at least i saw snow and the ground is somewhat white. what a freaking nightmare this was.  tracking it nearly 8 days out only for this garbage. perfect track only to have a sleetfest with token flakes. disgusting.

To be honest I am more frustrated with how much time I wasted tracking this.  I freaking stayed up for the Euro on Wed/Th nights.  

Thr 1/2" snow/sleet is nice and it will be nice to rid of it quicker.  

BigWeather - right there with you.  Pack will always be a mediocre in Bball and Fball.   I used to watch every game religiously but rarely watch now.  I did happen to catch the game the other day which was the first of the season.  Being a fan of the pack is like being of fan of snow in Raleigh, more times then not you will be disappointed.  

This bust today was as bad as the Clemson loss.  

12 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Will a Pack win in the Nose Dome make you feel better?  Because I'm feeling there is at least a chance if they can play like they did Wednesday night (I'm trying to forget about what happened down in Miami haha)

They played really good againt Va Tech the other day.  If they play like that they have a chance.  

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I think you might be going a tad overboard there.

This is a venting thread...supposed to be melo dramatic :-)

Maybe the hardcore mets are right about the problems posting snowmaps causes.  This is the Euro/EPS from this morning.   For Raleigh, unless we have a favorable Atlantic (50/50 and -NAO) and a 1040+hp located over the lakes extending east to Maine we will not snow, it's just that simple.  

Odds are winter is over, Nina background is still strong and odds favor a torch Feb.  Hopefully next winter we can be in a weak Nino with a neutral QBO so we have a chance at HLB.

I cancelled WB and SV...it's dumb paying money to track snow storms for GSO and the MA.  This isn't enjoyable anymore.