packbacker

Been almost 3 years since Raleigh’s last snow.  I got 4” and I think ColdRain got fringed.  

You know this winter is going to be rough when you have artic cold the next 10 days and we are having to hope for the pattern to breakdown to then build into something that could work.  2 steps behind this winter. 

Past 48 hours we got the exact opposite of what we needed.  #WeSuck

10 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Packbackerrubber... Ah, maybe not

PackAppsRubber.  If RDU gets a 4-6” event.  Not sure I will have to worry to much though.  

So maybe we are going 2014...that looks crazy cold mid month.  Not even us can mess up the entire month of Jan with this look....impossible!

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

You totally should!  That would be awesome!

I would have to keep it for a year though!   If we get a 4-6” event this winter I will change it.  

28 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

V2. 

Wow, that is cold, probably dry with the warmth that far west but eventually something will happen....it has to. 

4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

You have to ask Pack.  It's his term.  I hope he knows we're just playing.  I wish I would have typed it.  Spellcheck on iPhone is stupid.  Half the time, it takes a word that you're trying to type (and actually spell correctly) and changes it to a completely different word.  I don't understand its algorithm.  Anyway, that was a good one and has a wide-range of usage possibilities!

I am tempted to change my screen name to that...not sure they will let me though.  

Day 11 looks good...showing a cutter. 

Only difference I see between the UK and the GFS at 72 hours is our NY's wave digs a little more which means it's helping carve a path for the UK to dig the Jan 3 energy more or the ridge is just weaker.   Biggest change I see on the Euro is it doesn't move that pig low out of the NE quick enough so wave is flatter.

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Looks like a hot, steamy dump! 

But JB promised it's coming west, fits the pattern, blah , blah, bathtub slosh, yadda

Well the slosh theory may work this time...the GFS literally can't be any further east.  It has to be more west tomorrow....it will slosh back west. 

The UK is 300 miles west of the GFS at day 6 but is 200 miles east of where we need it.

7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS = Boom! Right into the dumpster! Hell, I'm more excited about the last BAM run! Regurgitates the NYE storm bact to life!

What the heck is this on the GFS...

8 out of the past 11 winter enso’s have been negative.  Since 1996 15 out of 22...need some +enso’s to get rolling.  Tired of all this northern stream junk. 

13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Lol @ Apps rubber!

7 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

 Apps Rubber?

LOL...fixed.  Stupid iPhone auto correct. 

42 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Be careful what you wish for...Apps Runner incoming!!!

Hah...I am not the least bit worried about an Apps runner next week.    

I am sure Franklin will want it up 95 and ColdRain gets a cold rain.  

3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Would be something if it shifts that much... got 4 days (16 runs) to do it.

200 mile shift at this range is nothing...most winters you can almost set your clock to it.   This isn’t most winters it seems.  

18z GEFS qpf mean.  I would take this verbatim...mood flakes.  0.5” is at HAT, that’s only about 200 mile west shift at 5-6 days.   We have seen then inside 48 hours from start time, just a few weeks ago and last January.

18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Even Bricks losing optimism, this is great! All the whining and crying!

Makes it almost worth it.  

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Go on...

That’s it...that’s all I could muster.  Well I guess the good news is the GEFS and EPS agree on a wide right miss next week.  Model consensus is always good.  

Well the good news about the 18z GEFS.....

11 minutes ago, Hammer said:

What would make the models think there is snowpack on the ground when we have not had any snow?


. Pro

Half the EPS members have snow in the Carolinas Jan 3-4.  

Not sure I have ever seen the EPS spit out 15 days of BN temps.  Granted the last 5 days may assume we have snowpack.  The 11-15 isn’t a warm pattern with EPO coming back  

Don’t recall the cfs bouncing around this much before.  Granted the first week of Jan is going to be well BN so the month as a whole has a chance.

2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

18z GFS says what pattern change to warm?

What the heck...