packbacker

9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It's interesting period we're entering. The warmth this week will be fairly brief but it's going to feel like Hawaii after the last couple weeks. What was originally going to be a brief cool down next week now looks like a 3-4 day window that "could" produce something with a legit Jan air mass. Then it looks like another repeat late next week with another fairly abrupt warm up but ens guidance is already starting to show that will be pretty brief too. 

While the shuffle happens in the conus it really does look like a legit -ao is going to try to form. Yea, I know...I know....believe it when we see it but this signal is getting kind of strong. It starts inside of 10 days and it's showing up on the ens means way out at the end of their runs. Is this one for real?

Let's assume it is for a minute.... My guess is the upcoming -pna/+epo period is going to be short lived and the pac will go back to the base state we've seen all winter so far. At least in some form. Probably not identical to the way we've been in the ice box but favorable for cold in North America in general. Add in a -ao and shorter wavelengths that start showing up as we enter February and there's a reason for cautious optimism. 

Some winters that hit hard with cold early flip a switch and never come back. Other ones take a break and reload. I was concerned about a long term flip to warm last week but I'm starting to change my mind. I have a hunch by the end of this week we're going to be talking about how good the long range looks. 

Thanks Bob!  You can already see the GEFS bringing cold back in the plains quicker the past few runs.  I thought it would be early Feb by the time we got back into a -EPO/+PNA pattern again but GEFS sure is trying to get there a little quicker.

24 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Ok Pack, can't quite figure out what you root for. You seem to like snow, but you also seem to want shorts weather. So, are you the, " I want it to snow a few inches, then melt as fast as it fell, then bring back Spring" guy?

Pretty much...perfect event would be a 4-6” event.   Hangs around for the next day and then 60’s and outside weather the following. I would never survive in the NE.   I like tracking, like watching it fall.  Then I want life back to normal. 

I do want to end our sub 10” season drought ASAP.  

44 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Where is pack with the heat update? Too much fantasy warmth this year

It’s coming!   I think...

Look at that block on the EPS and what’s rolling over from Siberia.  We are in a nina...it has to come...or does it

4 minutes ago, rduwx said:

Similar to that last storm...If it continues to show up in future runs, will it come far enough west is going to be the question.

Impressive setup day 7-8...negatively tilted trough, lowest DN in GA.  I haven't really been watching this period so not sure if this what it's been showing though.  That atlantic ridge should help to keep the wide rights back in play.

1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

Pack I had a pipe burst coming out my hot water heater 2 days ago. Flooded the wash room. Hence to say I'm ready for a warm up. Hope you have some pretty red maps to post. Bring on the thaw

Sucks about your water heater!

It’s coming but before then day 6-9 there is a chance.  

Or this...

Work with this...

20 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It’s just been so cold for so long.  I’ve expected mine to freeze at some point, but I’ve been lucky so far.  Pretty unbelievable the duration of below freezing around here.  Pretty crazy the record that we’re breaking here.

It's going to be all for nothing if we can't muster up more snow then 1" this winter.  This is year 14 since our last double digit snowfall season and we have 1 6"+ snow since 2004.  I don't even like thinking about it anymore, it's the worst period for living in Raleigh for snow and it seems like no end in sight.  #snowholeFTL

Just now, Cold Rain said:

Yeah that sucks.  Sorry man.  We’ve left our faucets dripping.  Our heater is in the crawl space which is sealed.

I have a heated/cooled crawl so it's strange the tankless is freezing this bad.  The outside pipes are insulated really well and the inside pipes are in a conditioned space.  Starting to worry something else might be wrong because it's been like 2 hours off/on with a hair dryer, it usually at most takes 30 mins.

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Where is your water heater located?

It’s a tankless on outside wall.  All week I have programmed my dishwasher to run at 2-3am and that has worked to keep it from freezing.  This morning I thought it worked, got up at 5:30 and it was still working.  But at 7:30 it stopped.  Been trying since with hair dryer and no luck.  All this cold for 1” of snow isn’t worth it.  

8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Long range GFS showed a Packuary torch!  luckily , it sucks

To get to our Fab Feb we have to go throw a ridgerrific pattern for a week or so.  By next weekend you and ColdRain will be salivating over the 11-15 day pattern.  

25 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

CMC still has an interesting look for the day 9/10 time frame. Extrapolating out after this it also looks cold:

 

 

The 6-10 is back at the cold look again.

Yep...ready to be done with the cold. Tankless froze up again, been trying to de-thaw for the past hour and so far no luck.  Never been this hard to de-thaw...but a low of 1F will do that I guess.  Friday I am going to have to turn the AC on...low in the 60's on Friday morning.   60F+ higher for the low then this morning....

GEFS has a few members with trailing lows...like this one.

Can the NAVGEM score another...almost a Franklin/Mack special.  Definitely a western Carolinas and MA special.

1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

The pattern relaxes before it reloads similar to what it did in December.  After our early snowstorm the models showed a massive torch for the rest of the month that only ended up with a week of above normal. The mjo, epo, and some hints of a -ao look promising. 

This is out there but GEFS has that look...ridging into AK, trough spilling into the plains.   Also, so far the trop PV isn’t consolidating, still fragmented per GEFS. 

1 hour ago, griteater said:

^ Ventrice isn't a hype-ster.  Heck, I don't even know if he likes cold 

The one he created for December, back in mid Nov, pretty much nailed December pattern.  

Hope...these have been good in the past  

So weeklies show a flip here...week 4, trough in the sw but they have been doing that all winter in the extended when they had a -EPO.

Before winter started I think we all hoped these analogs would show up...so far it's a good match through the first 5 weeks.  Interesting that all 5 of these analogs had a big winter storm in Feb...2001 was kind of weak but I would take it.

32 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Anybody got a read on the Weeklies? Haven’t heard anything, so I assume they’re toasty after the first week.

Edit:  Just realized...weeklies are freely available here.

http://wx.graphics/models/eps/eps.php

5 members on the 18z GEFS have snow down in the Carolina's day 8-10.  This is the most fun one...

Not sure about Jan but it’s interesting that of similar strength -enso, 2013, 2012, 2009, 2008, 2006, 2001, 1997, 1996...they all had atleast minor events in Feb.  So we will be tracking something in Feb I would hope.  

4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I don’t feel the 850s when I walk out my door. I dress for the 2ms lol 

Heats coming there too...bundle up.  Takes time to evacuate all the cold air to Russia.

29 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

So what you’re saying is pack posted #fakenews?

LOL...I posted the 850 map, GEPS 850's looks like the GEFS too.  This is a warm pattern in the extended whatever model you look at.  JMA seasonal weeks 3 and 4 makes the pattern below look frigid.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/pztmap.php