packbacker

First time enso 3.4 is positive since spring I would guess, granted this is what SV thinks per daily reading so it may bounce back a little negative.  

15 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

Can't wait for the massive SE Ridge on the 00z EPS.

#Bittercasting

LOL...you called it.  EPS backs off on the extended NAO and SER is stronger.  0z vs 12z yesterday. 

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Holy crap.

Be nice if another global ensemble was somewhat close to this....GEFS is closer then GEMens. 

6 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Can't wait for the massive SE Ridge on the 00z EPS.

#Bittercasting

Cueing up my Lucy/football gif...we all know how this works.

That was one of the coldest/wintery EPS runs I have seen.  No Atlantic ridge, 50/50/NAO. Active.

Holy crap.

That's a pretty good spot for the PV lobe to be...let's see if the EPS agrees.  Though a little further east/south would be ideal.  To bad we don't have just a little ridging out west...

Wheres the day 11 op euro when you need it.

GEFS still showing snowy/icy potential in the day 10+.  Even a blind squirrel finds a nut...right?

12z GEFS had some interesting changes after the day 10-12 cold shot.  Finally starts to build a ridge out west but just off the coast so still a -PNA.  When looking at the +QBO/wNina v/s the +QBO/sNina the 12z GEFS and CMC-ens is kind of in between.  The wNina has a better Aleutian ridge that builds poleward and almost connects to the scand. ridge building toward Greenland and the sNina don't.  Both composite sets have a atlantic ridge but the sNina combines it with a SER so the SE is much warmer, which is what the GEFS shows.  Obviously we want the wNina pattern as that gives us a chance, the sNina patter doesn't.  I don't see why come mid Jan we aren't in the wNina/+QBO pattern....but then again, we do suck.  

The sNINA/wQBO v/s the w/Nina/wQBO really diverge in Feb, the sNina is a furnace and the wNina's are very wintery.

GFS strat is always fun too.  Seems just a tad overdone...

9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Somebody que up "Sanitarium " by Metallica! GFS coming in hot! ( a good hot)! Loosen the straight jackets 

CMC looks good.

19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Lol if Shetley turns out to be right.

What did he say?

This is what GFS thinks Dec will finish up as.  I guess those warm seasonals were correct after all. Dec was supposed to be our coldest month....

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I love this place!!

This is a safe place...punter is cued up. 

11 minutes ago, Jon said:

Not surprising at all, I expect a warmup in mid Jan if we can't get sustained blocking which is hard to do. The next cold would have to be last week of Jan/early feb


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Yep...transient cold shot or two in Jan.  Typical blah Nina.  Good news is Jan looks to be another AN month for RDU, would make it 8 in a row.  

EPS says we go back to conus warmth fairly quickly after the day 11-13 cold shot.  Cue the cliff jumping gifs...

14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Webberweather, is basically saying signs are pointing to a mild February 

He has the SE AN for evey month.  He has as a bloodbath for Jan-Mar the plains eastward.   He is very smart.  Been lot of momentum by a lot of winter forecasts for a warm winter.

http://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/

14 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

When is the para coming out?

May 2017 I believe.  Need to work out the kinks though it seems to be block happy 

Who do we need to sacrifice to get this pattern?

Prediction

I like this thread....people get way to bent out of shape when warmth is brought up.   It's snow...if that's your biggest problem then you live a blessed life.

I will officially jump if come end of Jan we are still staining at a SER with a -PNA/+NAO combo.  

No, I don't get any joy in freezing rain.  I do like the mix events, snow to sleet to freezing rain, that creates a nice crust.