packbacker

We didn't want snow anyways...the ground temps would have ruined everything...

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

How much rain is the UK showing for us?

Will know roughly in 10 mins.

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Terrible.  Was feeling pretty good again till that.

Well I was right about jacking max QPF but wrong about all the rain we are getting...LOL

UK shifted much stronger and just off the coast...can't be good for thermals.

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

We still good on temps there?

Yes...but give me a few until I get better maps.  The GFS is almost a perfect track for us, QPF max, but barely all snow, from what I can see.  To bad it's SE of where it will end up.  I am putting all my apples in the Euro basket and the UK.

Canadians must not have gotten the new upper air data, if anything the 12z GEM looks a little weaker, like the RGEM did.

Just now, DopplerWx said:

can i fast forward 24 hrs now. thanks.

Well I think whatever the Euro shows today will probably be a good bet inside 36.   It will have all the upper data so hopefully we can squeeze some sleet and 1-2" of backside snow.

The new upper air data must have really thrown a monkey wrench into things.  Darn upper air...helped us at Boxing Day, kills us here.

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Leading the way!  Look how far the GFS shifted the snow max axis.  In just one run.

It's over for Raleigh getting a big dog. We'll be mixture with a couple of inches.  You guys should do very, very well.

Amazing...what a disaster 36 hours out things usually fall apart for us.  The Euro is going to be a mess for us...I guess we shouldn't be surprised, we never learn.  Good news is our weekend won't be a complete lockdown for us.

Just now, DopplerWx said:

man, its gonna be boom or bust for us. if we stay all snow we will get crushed, if we mix it will be a bummer but should still get some accums

I don't know, a 30 mile NW shift now and we are mostly rain.  Still 36 hours out...that's an eternity.  Last time we see GFS run with this type snow for us.

8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

So we have the Nam and the Paranormal Nam warmer and farther NW.

The RGEM holds serve.

The GFS looks to be coming in stronger.  A nod to the Nam?

It's over...GFS shifted NW and we are tainting, by this time tomorrow we are 35F and rain.  GSO to RIC to DC will jack...same ole same ole.

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Haha.  I wouldn't be as concerned if the NAM wasn't getting warmer with each successive run.  That's a problem.

Said yesterday...hug the least snowy model.  Cold rain incoming....

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Lol!  Well at least we got long-tracked this thing all the way up until 36 hours.  That was kinda fun.  Tiny little jumps NW at 60-48 and then BAM!  Massive shift at 36.

Que the Lucy gif...thank goodness I am in meetings all day and can't watch the train wreck 12z models come in.  

Just now, Cold Rain said:

Just wait and see....

You'll be saying, "Well, it's just snow.  No big deal."  By 10:45 tonight.

LOL...why I wanted to wait until 12z runs today, the shift was going to happen.  I thought after the Euro/EPS ticked SE we wouldn't have to worry about this.  Oh well, it's just snow :-)

Just like Jan 2010.  At this point I hope it runs up 95 and we just rain.  

4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

nam just in time to cause the pre-storm panic!

LOL...we should have known this would happen.  ColdRain was right...cold rain on the NAM's. 

Well this NAM run has that low a hair stronger again.  Uh oh...

14 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Winter Weather Watch out from RAH. Going with a general 3 to 5 and the "locally higher amounts possible" line. 

3-5 would be awesome!

44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Every run of the NAM brings the R/S line closer.

Don't think we rain, I hope, but if we mix with sleet then that means we are in qpf max.   

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Last minute NW trend FTW!

GEFS was about 0.8" qpf and EPS was a little over 0.6".  Let's hope these 12z runs hold.  

6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah if it moves in fast enough, I'd expect some rain to start.  Hopefully, we get enough robust lift for several hours after the BL cools and we pile up some snow for a change.

GEM is 1" QPF for you...sweet!

850's start at -6 and roughly stay there with temps dropping into mid 20's. 

Just now, No snow for you said:

Can you imagine the meltdown if we lost this storm now. 

Ummmm....it would be Dec 2000 all over again.  But, RAH is like 30-40 miles from 1" so a SE shift and yes it would suck.  That's something that could change day of the storm.

5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Widre is the board pessimist when it comes to snow.  New people and Brick don't like that, but he's right to be that way more than he's wrong.  In this case, as long as this thing doesn't get in here too early and get too amped, I'm not worried about temps.  It's a very cold air mass coming in.  Snow is cold and will have no problem piling up with good rates.

Ground temps are a concern but will just make things worse as it will melt and then refreeze...assuming we get any snow.  Which I am holding out until 12z runs tomorrow.

29 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I said I would be happy with 6.

Me too...but we are not getting six. 

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Cross post a bunch of stuff about can't trust the models, hating cold and dry, t-ball, you know, the usual stuff.

Surely he knows now to take the lowest model and divide by 2 or even 3....