packbacker

Interesting 11-16 day pattern on the GEFS...looks a lot like this past week which is setting up a real cold next 10 days. Another round Jan 15 and on? EPS looks nothing like this

Wish the Euro would run before the other models, that way we would know whether to bother looking at the GFS/CMC/Navgem/Pokemon. Only 10 more days until we get back to our normal warmth and hopefully we don't see another BN winter day until 2020.

Snow hunting in Raleigh has gotten beyond pathetic. Need a better hobby...

Figured start posting in this thread, 2017 wasn’t a good year for winter weather in Raleigh so let’s hope 2018 brings better luck. Can’t see how it can get worse. We have seen trailing waves swinging around the base of a trough work before and trend better from this range. The Jan 4-6 potential looks to have marginal cold per Euro/EPS and we know how that works outside of nwNC/SC/GA. For us Raleigh folks the Jan 1-2 event looks like it for atleast a few weeks. Trends over past 48 for day 6-7 has been for better west coast ridge and deeper east trough.

NAM is really cranking out the precip in the central/eastern Carolina's.

LOL...0z NAM. Raleigh getting NAM'd...like salt in the wounds.

Rainy afternoon for some per the 0z HRRR...maybe some flakes mix in at times, hopefully.

Looking at the free maps on weather.us for the Euro I see CLT stays below 0C for duration from 700-925mb? Looks cold to me?

Precip was very heavy on the 21z run at that hour. It will probably end up warming but I think that's the reason on the 23z run.

A little surprised RAH doesn’t have the triad in a WWA, pretty much every model has a big winter event for GSO to INT. Seeing the RGEM is nuts

This one was never going to work out for us, glad it’s going beast mode so some folks can see snow. Not everyone can be happy...it’s going to suck for someone.

Last January the NAM and the HRRR were great for showing the rain/snow cutoff. The HRRR wouldn’t budge and it was right.

Buckets...ColdRain, maybe for this winter we changd your name to HeavySnow. This is a lot of cold rain.

Raleigh can almost sniff the snow/ice...

For Raleigh this sure is a cruel way to start this winter after last January bust....NAM/GFS both shows 30 hours of mid/low 30's of really cold rain. http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Krdu.txt

To bad...if that piece of energy diving in over Wisconsin was diving in over Minn it might be different.

GEFS still in the slow down and closer to coast mode...

Yep...

Nice mean...

Wow...closed southern upper low.

RGEM meteo for Atl...snow all day Friday.

RGEM look solid for the ATL...

The euro is definitely keeping the ns low separate from the southern piece...hmmmm. Today's 12z Yesterday's 12z

Going to be really tough for us, even with the Euro track. I think it will be probably back towards 85 with a narrow wet/snow band.

At 48-60 hours? This should be in its wheelhouse now. I would be surprised if the EPS is much further west and would expect spread to decrease. I also think the snow axis will shift west as the precip will be further west I bet and eastern side wide will be warmer.